The match between Esperança d'Andorra and Ordino feels razor-thin, with the model favouring an Ordino victory. The odds are 31% for a home win, 29% for a draw and 40% for an away win, making the away win the most likely outcome. The expected total is 2.5 goals, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.9% chance. Esperança d'Andorra, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 0.83 conceded. Ordino, on the road, averages 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded against comparable teams. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.8%), Under 5.5 (95.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.0%), Under 4.5 (88.6%), Home under 2.5 goals (88.5%) and Away +2 handicap (86.8%). Recent form shows Esperança on a two-game winning run, while Ordino comes off a draw, adding to the uncertainty of the fixture.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Esperança d'Andorra win
30.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ordino win
39.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Esperança d'Andorra
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.90
0.67
1.60
0.93
2.20
vs Stronger (17)
0.41
2.65
0.25
2.38
0.56
2.89
vs Similar (10)
1.00
1.10
1.00
0.83
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
0.33
2.00
0.00
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Ordino) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ordino
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.73
1.38
1.62
1.00
1.86
vs Stronger (17)
0.41
1.88
0.38
1.88
0.44
1.89
vs Similar (12)
2.25
1.58
2.38
1.38
2.00
2.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Esperança d'Andorra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.1%
Under 1.5
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.3%
Under 2.5
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.8%
Under 3.5
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.5%
No
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
0-1
9.6%
0-0
9.3%
1-2
8.6%
1-0
8.1%
2-1
7.4%
0-2
7.4%
2-0
5.5%
Esperança d'Andorra goals ↓
Ordino goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.3%
9.6%
7.4%
3.3%
1.1%
1
8.1%
14%
8.6%
3.9%
1.3%
2
5.5%
7.4%
5.0%
2.3%
0.8%
3
2.1%
2.9%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.6%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Esperança d'Andorra goals (down), columns = Ordino goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter Club d'Escaldes
2.25
Ranger's
2.00
FC Santa Coloma
1.83
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.42
Casa de Portugal
1.22
Penya Encarnada
1.00
Ordino
0.92
Carroi
0.72
Esperança d'Andorra
0.65
Sporting Escaldes
0.00
Esperança d'Andorra is 0.26 points worse than Ordino in terms of average points per game (0.65 vs 0.92).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter Club d'Escaldes
1.96
Ranger's
1.92
FC Santa Coloma
1.88
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.29
Casa de Portugal
1.16
Ordino
1.12
Penya Encarnada
0.79
Esperança d'Andorra
0.77
Carroi
0.60
Sporting Escaldes
0.50
Esperança d'Andorra is 0.36 goals worse than Ordino in terms of goals scored per game (0.77 vs 1.12).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Santa Coloma
0.83
Ranger's
0.92
Inter Club d'Escaldes
1.00
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.08
Casa de Portugal
1.44
Penya Encarnada
1.71
Ordino
1.75
Esperança d'Andorra
1.85
Carroi
2.20
Sporting Escaldes
2.50
Esperança d'Andorra is 0.10 goals worse than Ordino in terms of goals conceded per game (1.85 vs 1.75).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Esperança d'Andorra or Draw
60.2%
Avg Implied -
31%
29%
40%
covers Esperança d'Andorra + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra or Ordino
70.8%
Avg Implied -
31%
29%
40%
covers Esperança d'Andorra + Ordino
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ordino
69.1%
Avg Implied -
31%
29%
40%
covers Draw + Ordino
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 0.5
Over
68.9%
Under
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 1.5
Over
32.6%
Under
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 2.5
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 3.5
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordino over/under 0.5
Over
74.3%
Under
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordino over/under 1.5
Over
39.3%
Under
60.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordino over/under 2.5
Over
15.6%
Under
84.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordino over/under 3.5
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Esperança d'Andorra, so a minus line means Esperança d'Andorra give that many goals of a start and Ordino receive them. At -1, Esperança d'Andorra must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Esperança d'Andorra win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Esperança d'Andorra)
Esperança d'Andorra -2
4.2%
Draw -2
9.0%
Ordino +2
86.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Esperança d'Andorra)
Esperança d'Andorra -1
13.2%
Draw -1
17.7%
Ordino +1
69.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Esperança d'Andorra)
Esperança d'Andorra +1
60.2%
Draw +1
20.8%
Ordino -1
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Esperança d'Andorra)
Esperança d'Andorra +2
81.0%
Draw +2
12.1%
Ordino -2
6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Esperança d'Andorra
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.90
0.33
0.87
0.13
0.93
vs Stronger (17)
0.06
1.18
0.12
1.25
0.00
1.11
vs Similar (11)
0.36
0.64
0.50
0.50
0.20
0.80
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Ordino) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ordino
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.77
0.44
0.75
0.29
0.79
vs Stronger (17)
0.06
0.94
0.00
1.00
0.11
0.89
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.50
0.88
0.50
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Esperança d'Andorra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordino over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordino over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordino over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Esperança d'Andorra
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.10
0.33
0.73
0.67
1.47
vs Stronger (17)
0.35
1.47
0.12
1.12
0.56
1.78
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.73
0.50
0.33
0.80
1.20
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Ordino) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ordino
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.97
0.94
0.88
0.71
1.07
vs Stronger (17)
0.35
0.94
0.38
0.88
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (12)
1.42
1.08
1.50
0.88
1.25
1.50
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Esperança d'Andorra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordino over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordino over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordino over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ICD (25)
€4m
RAN (24)
€4m
ACD (25)
€3m
FSC (28)
€3m
PE (26)
€3m
CAR (21)
€2m
ED (16)
€2m
ORD (22)
€2m
SE (1)
€0m
Esperança d'Andorra and Ordino have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ICD (9)
€2m
FSC (10)
€2m
RAN (8)
€1m
ORD (6)
€1m
ED (6)
€1m
ACD (5)
€1m
PE (6)
€1m
CAR (4)
€0m
SE (1)
€0m
Esperança d'Andorra and Ordino have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACD (8)
€1m
RAN (4)
€1m
CAR (7)
€1m
ICD (4)
€1m
PE (5)
€1m
FSC (5)
€1m
ED (2)
€0m
ORD (4)
€0m
SE (0)
€0m
Esperança d'Andorra and Ordino have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (15)
€2m
RAN (12)
€2m
ACD (12)
€2m
ICD (12)
€2m
FSC (13)
€1m
CAR (10)
€1m
ED (8)
€1m
ORD (12)
€1m
SE (0)
€0m
Esperança d'Andorra and Ordino have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Andorra: 1a Divisió 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Andorra: 1a Divisió stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Inter Club d'Escaldes
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
FC Santa Coloma
Sporting Escaldes
Penya Encarnada
Ranger's
Carroi
Casa de Portugal