The match between Etar Veliko Tarnovo and Fratria is a tight affair, with the model favouring an away win. Home and away win probabilities sit at 34% and 37% respectively, while a draw is 29%. The expected total goals hover around 2.5, with the most likely total being two goals at a 27% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, carrying a 14% probability.
Etar, playing at home against a similarly ranked side, averages 1.73 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. Fratria, on the road, averages 1.1 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against comparable opposition. Fratria’s recent unbeaten run (WDWWW) and Etar’s draw-heavy start (DLDWW) add to the uncertainty.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.8%), Under 5.5 (95.6%), Under 4.5 (88.8%), Home under 2.5 goals (87.3%), and Away under 2.5 goals (85.9%). Each selection is presented with its exact probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Etar Veliko Tarnovo win
33.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Fratria win
36.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.43
1.81
1.06
1.21
1.86
vs Stronger (3)
2.00
2.33
3.00
1.00
1.50
3.00
vs Similar (27)
1.48
1.33
1.73
1.07
1.17
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Fratria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fratria
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.87
2.00
0.87
1.27
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.55
0.95
1.92
0.92
1.10
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
1.88
0.62
2.33
0.67
1.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Etar Veliko Tarnovo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
72.4%
Under 1.5
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
45.5%
Under 2.5
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.1%
Under 3.5
75.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.0%
No
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
0-0
9.5%
0-1
9.3%
1-0
8.8%
1-2
8.2%
2-1
7.8%
0-2
6.7%
2-0
6.1%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo goals ↓
Fratria goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.5%
9.3%
6.7%
2.9%
0.9%
1
8.8%
14%
8.2%
3.5%
1.1%
2
6.1%
7.8%
5.0%
2.1%
0.7%
3
2.5%
3.2%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.8%
1.0%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Etar Veliko Tarnovo goals (down), columns = Fratria goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vihren
2.14
CSKA Sofia II
2.00
Fratria
2.00
Yantra 2019
1.86
Montana
1.57
Beroe
1.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.57
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Marek
1.43
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Rilski Sportist
1.29
Ludogorets II
1.14
Hebar 1918
1.14
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Sportist Svoge
0.86
Dobrudzha
0.71
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.00
Etar Veliko Tarnovo is 0.43 points worse than Fratria in terms of average points per game (1.57 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
CSKA Sofia II
2.14
Vihren
2.14
Nesebar
1.86
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.86
Montana
1.71
Hebar 1918
1.71
Beroe
1.29
Fratria
1.29
Yantra 2019
1.29
Marek
1.00
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00
Dobrudzha
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Ludogorets II
0.71
Sportist Svoge
0.57
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.43
Etar Veliko Tarnovo is 0.57 goals better than Fratria in terms of goals scored per game (1.86 vs 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fratria
0.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.57
Marek
0.86
Beroe
0.86
Sportist Svoge
0.86
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Yantra 2019
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Vihren
1.00
Montana
1.14
Ludogorets II
1.14
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.29
Dobrudzha
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Hebar 1918
1.86
Spartak Pleven
2.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
3.43
Etar Veliko Tarnovo is 1.00 goals worse than Fratria in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 0.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo or Draw
63.4%
Avg Implied -
34%
30%
37%
covers Etar Veliko Tarnovo + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo or Fratria
70.4%
Avg Implied -
34%
30%
37%
covers Etar Veliko Tarnovo + Fratria
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Fratria
66.2%
Avg Implied -
34%
30%
37%
covers Draw + Fratria
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo over/under 0.5
Over
70.4%
Under
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo over/under 1.5
Over
34.4%
Under
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo over/under 2.5
Over
12.4%
Under
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo over/under 3.5
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 0.5
Over
72.1%
Under
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 1.5
Over
36.5%
Under
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 2.5
Over
13.8%
Under
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 3.5
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Etar Veliko Tarnovo, so a minus line means Etar Veliko Tarnovo give that many goals of a start and Fratria receive them. At -1, Etar Veliko Tarnovo must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Etar Veliko Tarnovo win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Etar Veliko Tarnovo)
Etar Veliko Tarnovo -2
4.9%
Draw -2
10.0%
Fratria +2
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Etar Veliko Tarnovo)
Etar Veliko Tarnovo -1
14.9%
Draw -1
18.9%
Fratria +1
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Etar Veliko Tarnovo)
Etar Veliko Tarnovo +1
63.4%
Draw +1
19.9%
Fratria -1
16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Etar Veliko Tarnovo)
Etar Veliko Tarnovo +2
83.3%
Draw +2
11.0%
Fratria -2
5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.80
0.62
0.56
0.36
1.07
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
2.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
0.48
0.70
0.53
0.53
0.42
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Fratria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fratria
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.43
0.87
0.47
0.80
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.60
0.50
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
0.25
1.33
0.33
1.20
0.20
Clean sheet %
63% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Etar Veliko Tarnovo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.63
1.19
0.50
0.86
0.79
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (27)
1.00
0.63
1.20
0.53
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Fratria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fratria
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.43
1.13
0.40
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.45
1.17
0.42
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (8)
0.62
0.38
1.00
0.33
0.40
0.40
Clean sheet %
63% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Etar Veliko Tarnovo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Etar Veliko Tarnovo · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joachim Carcela-Gonzalez33%
Martin Toshev33%
Ivan Vasilev30%
Didis Lutumba-Pitah10%
Martin Moran9%
Dimo Bakalov0%
Nikolay Yankov0%
Martin Nikolov0%
Valeri Hristov0%
Georgi Angelov0%
Kolyo Stanev0%
Krum Stoyanov0%
Yanko Angelov0%
Lovre Knežević0%
Kelyan Guessoum0%
Josecarlos van Rankin0%
Ivailo Dimitrov0%
Martin Velichkov0%
Chahreddine Boukholda0%
Aleksandar Mishov0%
Gorka Larrucea0%
Vladislav Naydenov0%
Kristijan Sekulic0%
Jaisen Clifford0%
Jean-Marc Tiboué0%
Georgi Aleksandrov0%
Moses Enokela Candidus0%
Luis Mario Córdova Mina0%
Atanas Atanasov0%
Serigne Mbacke Faye0%
Radoslav Naydenov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gorka Larrucea50%
Martin Moran36%
Joachim Carcela-Gonzalez33%
Valeri Hristov33%
Krum Stoyanov33%
Martin Toshev33%
Luis Mario Córdova Mina33%
Josecarlos van Rankin29%
Dimo Bakalov25%
Yanko Angelov25%
Kelyan Guessoum25%
Ivan Vasilev20%
Kolyo Stanev20%
Kristijan Sekulic20%
Jean-Marc Tiboué20%
Georgi Aleksandrov17%
Moses Enokela Candidus17%
Nikolay Yankov14%
Martin Nikolov11%
Lovre Knežević11%
Georgi Angelov0%
Didis Lutumba-Pitah0%
Ivailo Dimitrov0%
Martin Velichkov0%
Chahreddine Boukholda0%
Aleksandar Mishov0%
Vladislav Naydenov0%
Jaisen Clifford0%
Atanas Atanasov0%
Serigne Mbacke Faye0%
Radoslav Naydenov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nikolay Yankov14%
Didis Lutumba-Pitah10%
Jean-Marc Tiboué10%
Dimo Bakalov0%
Joachim Carcela-Gonzalez0%
Martin Nikolov0%
Valeri Hristov0%
Georgi Angelov0%
Ivan Vasilev0%
Kolyo Stanev0%
Krum Stoyanov0%
Yanko Angelov0%
Lovre Knežević0%
Kelyan Guessoum0%
Josecarlos van Rankin0%
Ivailo Dimitrov0%
Martin Velichkov0%
Chahreddine Boukholda0%
Martin Toshev0%
Aleksandar Mishov0%
Gorka Larrucea0%
Vladislav Naydenov0%
Kristijan Sekulic0%
Jaisen Clifford0%
Martin Moran0%
Georgi Aleksandrov0%
Moses Enokela Candidus0%
Luis Mario Córdova Mina0%
Atanas Atanasov0%
Serigne Mbacke Faye0%
Radoslav Naydenov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joachim Carcela-Gonzalez11%
Ivan Vasilev10%
Didis Lutumba-Pitah10%
Dimo Bakalov0%
Nikolay Yankov0%
Martin Nikolov0%
Valeri Hristov0%
Georgi Angelov0%
Kolyo Stanev0%
Krum Stoyanov0%
Yanko Angelov0%
Lovre Knežević0%
Kelyan Guessoum0%
Josecarlos van Rankin0%
Ivailo Dimitrov0%
Martin Velichkov0%
Chahreddine Boukholda0%
Martin Toshev0%
Aleksandar Mishov0%
Gorka Larrucea0%
Vladislav Naydenov0%
Kristijan Sekulic0%
Jaisen Clifford0%
Jean-Marc Tiboué0%
Martin Moran0%
Georgi Aleksandrov0%
Moses Enokela Candidus0%
Luis Mario Córdova Mina0%
Atanas Atanasov0%
Serigne Mbacke Faye0%
Radoslav Naydenov0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (22)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
H1 (19)
€3m
VIH (18)
€2m
EVT (23)
€2m
C1B (19)
€2m
CSI (20)
€2m
PB (17)
€2m
MON (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
BER (13)
€2m
LGO (15)
€1m
SP (19)
€1m
DOB (10)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
Etar Veliko Tarnovo and Fratria have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
H1 (8)
€2m
VIH (9)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
EVT (12)
€1m
FRA (6)
€1m
MON (8)
€1m
C1B (4)
€1m
BER (5)
€1m
CSI (8)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
DOB (5)
€0m
PB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
LGO (4)
€0m
Etar Veliko Tarnovo and Fratria have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (4)
€1m
C1B (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
VIH (3)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
EVT (3)
€0m
LGO (3)
€0m
DOB (3)
€0m
CSI (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
MON (3)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
H1 (2)
€0m
BER (2)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
Etar Veliko Tarnovo and Fratria have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
Y2 (10)
€2m
FRA (12)
€1m
H1 (9)
€1m
EVT (8)
€1m
CSI (9)
€1m
BER (6)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
LGO (8)
€1m
C1B (9)
€1m
VIH (6)
€1m
MON (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
DOB (2)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
Etar Veliko Tarnovo and Fratria have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vihren
CSKA Sofia II
Yantra 2019
Montana
Beroe
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Nesebar
Marek
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Rilski Sportist
Hebar 1918
Ludogorets II
Spartak Pleven
Sportist Svoge
Dobrudzha
Pirin Blagoevgrad