Etar Veliko Tarnovo vs Ludogorets II Result & Analysis

Etar Veliko Tarnovo enter the match as clear favourites, the model assigning a 67% chance to a home win and a 23% chance of a draw, with only a 10% chance for Ludogorets II to triumph. The prediction favours a 1-0 result, the most likely scoreline, with a 15.8% probability, while the average number of goals is 2.4 and the most probable total is 2 goals at 27%. Etar’s home form shows they average 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Ludogorets II, playing away, averages only 0.4 goals scored and 2.4 conceded. The team’s recent form notes that Etar comes off a draw, while Ludogorets II follows a defeat. The model’s selection list includes an Under 3.5 goal pick at 78%. These figures underline Etar’s dominance at home and Ludogorets II’s defensive frailty on the road.

The upset came early as Ludogorets II snatched a 1-0 victory, overturning the pre-match favourite Etar Veliko Tarnovo. The model had tipped a home win with a 67% probability, but the prediction proved wrong. Etar, coming off a draw and on a mixed run, failed to convert its 1.5 average goals per game, while Ludogorets, after a defeat and averaging 0.4 goals, kept a clean sheet. The model’s single suggested pick, Under 3.5 goals, hit its mark with a 78% probability, confirming the low-scoring outcome. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the away win and the model’s error on the favourite call.