Etar Veliko Tarnovo's recent form has been impressive, with a 3-game winning streak in their last 5 matches. However, their home form against Yantra 2019 has been inconsistent, with an average of 1.77 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against a similar-strength opponent. Yantra 2019, on the other hand, has struggled away from home, with an average of 1.43 goals scored and 0.43 conceded against a similar-strength opponent. The model predicts an away win, with a 37% probability, and expects 2.3 goals on average. The most likely score is a 1-1 draw, with a 14.5% probability.
The model's selection is the Under 3.5 goals, with a 79.2% probability and a 9% edge. This selection suggests that the model expects a low-scoring match, which could be influenced by Yantra 2019's defensive solidity away from home. The model also suggests a draw, with a 31% probability, and an away win, with a 32% probability. The home win percentage is 32%, the draw percentage is 31%, and the away win percentage is 37%.
Results analysis
In a major upset, Etar Veliko Tarnovo secured a 2-1 home win against Yantra 2019, extending their run of three consecutive victories. This result comes as a surprise, considering Yantra 2019 were the pre-match favourites with a 37% probability of winning. However, the model's selection, an away win for Yantra 2019, was incorrect.
The model's call on the match outcome was wrong, but it did correctly predict that the final score would be under 3.5 goals, with an 79.2% probability. The model's selection of an away win for Yantra 2019 was the favourite, despite the fact that they were ultimately defeated.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Etar Veliko Tarnovo win✓ Hit
32.3%
Avg Implied 51.7% · @ 1.73
Edge
-19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.82
Betfair
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Superbet
1.76
Dafabet
1.76
Draw✗ Miss
30.7%
Avg Implied 26.4% · @ 3.39
Edge
+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.60
Pinnacle
3.52
BetVictor
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
1xBet
3.48
Yantra 2019 win✗ Miss
37.0%
Avg Implied 21.9% · @ 4.08
Edge
+15.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.49
Marathonbet
4.40
Pinnacle
4.34
BetVictor
4.33
Bet365
4.33
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.37
1.73
1.13
1.13
1.60
vs Stronger (4)
2.25
2.50
3.00
2.00
1.50
3.00
vs Similar (26)
1.31
1.19
1.54
1.00
1.08
1.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Yantra 2019) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Yantra 2019
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.80
1.33
0.73
1.40
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.36
0.80
1.33
0.67
1.38
0.92
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.80
1.33
1.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Etar Veliko Tarnovo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.0%
@ 1.25-4.0%
Under 1.5
31.0%
@ 3.38+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.80
888Sport
3.40
Superbet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.28
1xBet
3.28
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.3%
@ 1.83-9.0%
Under 2.5
58.7%
@ 1.85+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.86
Betfair
1.85
888Sport
1.85
Under
Bet365
2.00
SBO
1.96
Superbet
1.87
BetVictor
1.86
Betfair
1.85
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.8%
@ 3.05-9.0%
Under 3.5
79.2%
@ 1.30+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.30
Unibet
3.20
888Sport
3.10
Marathonbet
3.05
1xBet
3.05
Under
Pinnacle
1.36
Superbet
1.31
888Sport
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.7%
@ 1.75-3.8%
No
51.3%
@ 1.93+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
Superbet
1.76
BetVictor
1.75
Betfair
1.73
No
Betfair
2.00
BetVictor
1.95
William Hil
1.95
888Sport
1.95
Superbet
1.95
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%@ 6.13+8.2%
0-0
11.0%@ 9.52+6.9%
0-1
10.5%@ 10.79+6.9%
1-0
9.5%@ 6.55+3.6%
1-2
8.0%@ 12.06+4.8%
2-1 ✓
7.4%@ 7.41+2.2%
0-2
7.2%@ 19.76+5.2%
2-0
6.1%@ 7.87+1.2%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo goals ↓
Yantra 2019 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
10%
7.2%
2.9%
0.9%
1
9.5%
14%
8.0%
3.2%
1.0%
2
6.1%
7.4%
4.5%
1.8%
0.6%
3
2.3%
2.8%
1.7%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.6%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Etar Veliko Tarnovo goals (down), columns = Yantra 2019 goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vihren
2.14
CSKA Sofia II
2.00
Fratria
2.00
Yantra 2019
1.86
Montana
1.57
Beroe
1.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.57
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Marek
1.43
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Rilski Sportist
1.29
Ludogorets II
1.14
Hebar 1918
1.14
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Sportist Svoge
0.86
Dobrudzha
0.71
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.00
Etar Veliko Tarnovo is 0.29 points worse than Yantra 2019 in terms of average points per game (1.57 vs 1.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
CSKA Sofia II
2.14
Vihren
2.14
Nesebar
1.86
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.86
Montana
1.71
Hebar 1918
1.71
Beroe
1.29
Fratria
1.29
Yantra 2019
1.29
Marek
1.00
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00
Dobrudzha
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Ludogorets II
0.71
Sportist Svoge
0.57
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.43
Etar Veliko Tarnovo is 0.57 goals better than Yantra 2019 in terms of goals scored per game (1.86 vs 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fratria
0.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.57
Marek
0.86
Beroe
0.86
Sportist Svoge
0.86
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Yantra 2019
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Vihren
1.00
Montana
1.14
Ludogorets II
1.14
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.29
Dobrudzha
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Hebar 1918
1.86
Spartak Pleven
2.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
3.43
Etar Veliko Tarnovo is 0.57 goals worse than Yantra 2019 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.67
0.53
0.47
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.50
2.00
1.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.46
0.62
0.46
0.46
0.46
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Yantra 2019) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Yantra 2019
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.47
0.60
0.27
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.48
0.67
0.25
0.69
0.69
vs Weaker (5)
0.20
0.40
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Etar Veliko Tarnovo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yantra 2019 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yantra 2019 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yantra 2019 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.63
1.07
0.60
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.85
0.58
1.08
0.54
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Yantra 2019) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Yantra 2019
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.33
0.73
0.47
0.80
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.32
0.67
0.42
0.69
0.23
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.40
1.00
0.67
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Etar Veliko Tarnovo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yantra 2019 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yantra 2019 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yantra 2019 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
79.2%
1.30
Pinnacle
1.36
Superbet
1.31
888Sport
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
+9.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Etar Veliko Tarnovo · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joachim Carcela-Gonzalez33%
Martin Toshev33%
Ivan Vasilev30%
Didis Lutumba-Pitah10%
Martin Moran9%
Dimo Bakalov0%
Nikolay Yankov0%
Martin Nikolov0%
Valeri Hristov0%
Georgi Angelov0%
Kolyo Stanev0%
Krum Stoyanov0%
Yanko Angelov0%
Lovre Knežević0%
Kelyan Guessoum0%
Josecarlos van Rankin0%
Ivailo Dimitrov0%
Martin Velichkov0%
Chahreddine Boukholda0%
Aleksandar Mishov0%
Gorka Larrucea0%
Vladislav Naydenov0%
Kristijan Sekulic0%
Jaisen Clifford0%
Jean-Marc Tiboué0%
Georgi Aleksandrov0%
Moses Enokela Candidus0%
Luis Mario Córdova Mina0%
Atanas Atanasov0%
Serigne Mbacke Faye0%
Radoslav Naydenov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gorka Larrucea50%
Martin Moran36%
Joachim Carcela-Gonzalez33%
Valeri Hristov33%
Krum Stoyanov33%
Martin Toshev33%
Luis Mario Córdova Mina33%
Josecarlos van Rankin29%
Dimo Bakalov25%
Yanko Angelov25%
Kelyan Guessoum25%
Ivan Vasilev20%
Kolyo Stanev20%
Kristijan Sekulic20%
Jean-Marc Tiboué20%
Georgi Aleksandrov17%
Moses Enokela Candidus17%
Nikolay Yankov14%
Martin Nikolov11%
Lovre Knežević11%
Georgi Angelov0%
Didis Lutumba-Pitah0%
Ivailo Dimitrov0%
Martin Velichkov0%
Chahreddine Boukholda0%
Aleksandar Mishov0%
Vladislav Naydenov0%
Jaisen Clifford0%
Atanas Atanasov0%
Serigne Mbacke Faye0%
Radoslav Naydenov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nikolay Yankov14%
Didis Lutumba-Pitah10%
Jean-Marc Tiboué10%
Dimo Bakalov0%
Joachim Carcela-Gonzalez0%
Martin Nikolov0%
Valeri Hristov0%
Georgi Angelov0%
Ivan Vasilev0%
Kolyo Stanev0%
Krum Stoyanov0%
Yanko Angelov0%
Lovre Knežević0%
Kelyan Guessoum0%
Josecarlos van Rankin0%
Ivailo Dimitrov0%
Martin Velichkov0%
Chahreddine Boukholda0%
Martin Toshev0%
Aleksandar Mishov0%
Gorka Larrucea0%
Vladislav Naydenov0%
Kristijan Sekulic0%
Jaisen Clifford0%
Martin Moran0%
Georgi Aleksandrov0%
Moses Enokela Candidus0%
Luis Mario Córdova Mina0%
Atanas Atanasov0%
Serigne Mbacke Faye0%
Radoslav Naydenov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joachim Carcela-Gonzalez11%
Ivan Vasilev10%
Didis Lutumba-Pitah10%
Dimo Bakalov0%
Nikolay Yankov0%
Martin Nikolov0%
Valeri Hristov0%
Georgi Angelov0%
Kolyo Stanev0%
Krum Stoyanov0%
Yanko Angelov0%
Lovre Knežević0%
Kelyan Guessoum0%
Josecarlos van Rankin0%
Ivailo Dimitrov0%
Martin Velichkov0%
Chahreddine Boukholda0%
Martin Toshev0%
Aleksandar Mishov0%
Gorka Larrucea0%
Vladislav Naydenov0%
Kristijan Sekulic0%
Jaisen Clifford0%
Jean-Marc Tiboué0%
Martin Moran0%
Georgi Aleksandrov0%
Moses Enokela Candidus0%
Luis Mario Córdova Mina0%
Atanas Atanasov0%
Serigne Mbacke Faye0%
Radoslav Naydenov0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (22)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
H1 (19)
€3m
VIH (18)
€2m
EVT (23)
€2m
C1B (19)
€2m
CSI (20)
€2m
PB (17)
€2m
MON (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
BER (13)
€2m
LGO (15)
€1m
SP (19)
€1m
DOB (10)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
Etar Veliko Tarnovo and Yantra 2019 have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
H1 (8)
€2m
VIH (9)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
EVT (12)
€1m
FRA (6)
€1m
MON (8)
€1m
C1B (4)
€1m
BER (5)
€1m
CSI (8)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
DOB (5)
€0m
PB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
LGO (4)
€0m
Etar Veliko Tarnovo and Yantra 2019 have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (4)
€1m
C1B (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
VIH (3)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
EVT (3)
€0m
LGO (3)
€0m
DOB (3)
€0m
CSI (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
MON (3)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
H1 (2)
€0m
BER (2)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
Etar Veliko Tarnovo and Yantra 2019 have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
Y2 (10)
€2m
FRA (12)
€1m
H1 (9)
€1m
EVT (8)
€1m
CSI (9)
€1m
BER (6)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
LGO (8)
€1m
C1B (9)
€1m
VIH (6)
€1m
MON (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
DOB (2)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
Etar Veliko Tarnovo and Yantra 2019 have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vihren
CSKA Sofia II
Fratria
Montana
Beroe
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Nesebar
Marek
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Rilski Sportist
Hebar 1918
Ludogorets II
Spartak Pleven
Sportist Svoge
Dobrudzha
Pirin Blagoevgrad