Ethnikos Achna are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 66% chance of a home win and a 23% chance of a draw, leaving only 11% for an APEA victory. The 2.6 expected goals translate to an average of two goals, and the most likely scoreline is 2-0 for the home side, a 13.7% probability. Ethnikos have scored 1.2 and conceded 0.8 goals at home against similar opposition, while APEA, on the road, averages 1.09 scored and 0.91 conceded versus comparable teams. The model’s selections echo the home advantage: Away under 3.5 goals (99.5%), Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.3%), Away under 2.5 goals (96.9%), Home +2 handicap (96.8%), Under 5.5 (95.2%), Home or Draw (88.6%), and Home +1 handicap (88.6%). Ethnikos are coming off a defeat, yet APEA are on a three-game winning streak, a storyline that underlines the home side’s edge in this fixture.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ethnikos Achna win
65.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
APEA win
11.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ethnikos Achna
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.67
1.21
1.14
0.81
2.12
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
2.78
1.25
2.00
0.40
3.40
vs Similar (21)
1.10
1.19
1.20
0.80
1.00
1.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (APEA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
APEA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.31
1.31
1.53
1.40
1.07
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.35
1.09
1.58
1.25
1.09
0.91
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
2.17
1.33
2.00
1.00
2.33
Clean sheet %
28% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Ethnikos Achna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.9%
Under 1.5
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.7%
Under 2.5
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.0%
Under 3.5
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
42.8%
No
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.7%
1-0
13.4%
1-1
10.7%
2-1
9.3%
3-0
8.7%
0-0
8.5%
3-1
5.9%
4-0
4.2%
Ethnikos Achna goals ↓
APEA goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
4.1%
1.7%
0.4%
0.1%
1
13%
11%
3.3%
0.7%
0.1%
2
14%
9.3%
3.1%
0.7%
0.1%
3
8.7%
5.9%
2.0%
0.4%
0.1%
4
4.2%
2.8%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ethnikos Achna goals (down), columns = APEA goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ethnikos Achna
2.66
Akritas
2.54
Enosis
2.44
PAEEK
1.59
Halkanoras
1.55
Doxa
1.45
Ayia Napa
1.41
Ermis
1.37
Polemidion
1.37
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.37
APEA
1.34
Spartakos Kitiou
1.34
Digenis Morphou
1.34
Iraklis Yerolakkou
1.28
ASIL Lysi
1.07
MEAP Nisou
1.00
Ethnikos Achna is 1.31 points better than APEA in terms of average points per game (2.66 vs 1.34).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ethnikos Achna
2.62
Akritas
2.50
Enosis
2.40
Halkanoras
1.62
Digenis Morphou
1.55
PAEEK
1.45
Ayia Napa
1.45
Spartakos Kitiou
1.45
Ermis
1.35
Polemidion
1.35
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.35
APEA
1.31
Doxa
1.17
ASIL Lysi
1.10
MEAP Nisou
1.07
Iraklis Yerolakkou
0.93
Ethnikos Achna is 1.31 goals better than APEA in terms of goals scored per game (2.62 vs 1.31).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ethnikos Achna
0.70
Akritas
0.73
Enosis
0.76
Iraklis Yerolakkou
1.03
PAEEK
1.07
Doxa
1.21
Spartakos Kitiou
1.24
Halkanoras
1.28
APEA
1.31
Digenis Morphou
1.31
Ermis
1.35
Polemidion
1.35
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.35
Ayia Napa
1.48
ASIL Lysi
1.72
MEAP Nisou
1.72
Ethnikos Achna is 0.61 goals better than APEA in terms of goals conceded per game (0.70 vs 1.31).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ethnikos Achna or Draw
88.6%
Avg Implied -
66%
23%
11%
covers Ethnikos Achna + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ethnikos Achna or APEA
77.1%
Avg Implied -
66%
23%
11%
covers Ethnikos Achna + APEA
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or APEA
34.3%
Avg Implied -
66%
23%
11%
covers Draw + APEA
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ethnikos Achna over/under 0.5
Over
85.1%
Under
14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ethnikos Achna over/under 1.5
Over
56.8%
Under
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ethnikos Achna over/under 2.5
Over
29.8%
Under
70.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ethnikos Achna over/under 3.5
Over
12.6%
Under
87.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
APEA over/under 0.5
Over
49.1%
Under
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
APEA over/under 1.5
Over
14.7%
Under
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
APEA over/under 2.5
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
APEA over/under 3.5
Over
0.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ethnikos Achna, so a minus line means Ethnikos Achna give that many goals of a start and APEA receive them. At -1, Ethnikos Achna must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ethnikos Achna win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ethnikos Achna)
Ethnikos Achna -2
20.1%
Draw -2
20.7%
APEA +2
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ethnikos Achna)
Ethnikos Achna -1
40.8%
Draw -1
24.9%
APEA +1
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ethnikos Achna)
Ethnikos Achna +1
88.6%
Draw +1
8.2%
APEA -1
3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ethnikos Achna)
Ethnikos Achna +2
96.8%
Draw +2
2.6%
APEA -2
0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ethnikos Achna
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.57
0.64
0.43
0.25
0.69
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.78
0.75
0.75
0.20
0.80
vs Similar (21)
0.43
0.48
0.60
0.30
0.27
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (APEA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
APEA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.55
0.69
0.47
0.67
0.64
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.57
0.65
0.42
0.67
0.73
0.64
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.83
0.67
0.67
0.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
41% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Ethnikos Achna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ethnikos Achna over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ethnikos Achna over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ethnikos Achna over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
APEA over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
APEA over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
APEA over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ethnikos Achna
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.10
0.57
0.71
0.56
1.44
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
2.00
0.50
1.25
0.20
2.60
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.71
0.60
0.50
0.73
0.91
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (APEA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
APEA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.76
0.62
1.07
0.73
0.43
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.43
1.17
0.58
0.36
0.27
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
1.33
0.67
1.33
0.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
59% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Ethnikos Achna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ethnikos Achna over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ethnikos Achna over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ethnikos Achna over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
APEA over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
APEA over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
APEA over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ethnikos Achna · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Christos Giousis60%
Nicolas Andereggen25%
Pablo Gonzalez Juarez17%
Emmanuel Lomotey14%
Rafael Camacho0%
Ioakeim Toumpas0%
Juan Bautista Cejas0%
Carlos Rentería0%
Giorgos Papageorgiou0%
Marios Pechlivanis0%
Paris Psaltis0%
Alois Confais0%
Patrick Bahanack0%
Luís Machado0%
Richard Ofori0%
Mamadou Kané0%
Martim Maia0%
Javier Siverio0%
Luís Felipe Hungria Martins0%
Rodriguinho0%
Lucas Flores0%
Georgios Angelopoulos0%
Marios Dimitriou0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Richard Ofori75%
Mamadou Kané50%
Nicolas Andereggen38%
Pablo Gonzalez Juarez33%
Emmanuel Lomotey29%
Georgios Angelopoulos29%
Carlos Rentería25%
Javier Siverio25%
Christos Giousis20%
Luís Machado14%
Alois Confais12%
Giorgos Papageorgiou11%
Rafael Camacho0%
Ioakeim Toumpas0%
Juan Bautista Cejas0%
Marios Pechlivanis0%
Paris Psaltis0%
Patrick Bahanack0%
Martim Maia0%
Luís Felipe Hungria Martins0%
Rodriguinho0%
Lucas Flores0%
Marios Dimitriou0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Giorgos Papageorgiou33%
Martim Maia33%
Christos Giousis20%
Juan Bautista Cejas14%
Nicolas Andereggen12%
Rafael Camacho0%
Ioakeim Toumpas0%
Carlos Rentería0%
Marios Pechlivanis0%
Paris Psaltis0%
Alois Confais0%
Patrick Bahanack0%
Luís Machado0%
Pablo Gonzalez Juarez0%
Richard Ofori0%
Mamadou Kané0%
Emmanuel Lomotey0%
Javier Siverio0%
Luís Felipe Hungria Martins0%
Rodriguinho0%
Lucas Flores0%
Georgios Angelopoulos0%
Marios Dimitriou0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nicolas Andereggen25%
Christos Giousis20%
Pablo Gonzalez Juarez17%
Rafael Camacho0%
Ioakeim Toumpas0%
Juan Bautista Cejas0%
Carlos Rentería0%
Giorgos Papageorgiou0%
Marios Pechlivanis0%
Paris Psaltis0%
Alois Confais0%
Patrick Bahanack0%
Luís Machado0%
Richard Ofori0%
Mamadou Kané0%
Emmanuel Lomotey0%
Martim Maia0%
Javier Siverio0%
Luís Felipe Hungria Martins0%
Rodriguinho0%
Lucas Flores0%
Georgios Angelopoulos0%
Marios Dimitriou0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Cyprus: 2. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 2. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Doxa
Enosis
Ayia Napa
Digenis Morphou
Spartakos Kitiou
Anagennisi Deryneia
Iraklis Yerolakkou
Halkanoras
Polemidion
ASIL Lysi
Akritas
Ermis
PAEEK
MEAP Nisou