Pythia gives Ethnikos Achna a 43% win probability against Omonia Aradippou in the Cyprus: 1. Division on 2026-05-15, with 32% for the draw and 25% for Omonia Aradippou. The model estimates around 2.1 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (14.4%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 19.5 fouls (97%), Over 21.5 fouls (92%), Under 11.5 corners (86%), Over 2.5 cards (84%).
Results analysis
Ethnikos Achna finished 1-2 against Omonia Aradippou (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 43% home win, 32% draw and 25% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (84%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ethnikos Achna win✗ Miss
42.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Omonia Aradippou win✓ Hit
25.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ethnikos Achna
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.67
1.23
1.08
0.88
2.12
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
2.45
1.00
1.80
0.33
3.00
vs Similar (16)
0.88
1.31
0.86
0.57
0.89
1.89
vs Weaker (3)
3.33
0.67
5.00
1.00
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
13% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Omonia Aradippou) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Omonia Aradippou
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.33
1.12
1.50
0.79
1.14
vs Stronger (11)
0.55
1.82
0.40
2.00
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (16)
1.06
1.06
1.22
1.22
0.86
0.86
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
1.00
2.50
1.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ethnikos Achna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
63.6%
Under 1.5
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
35.3%
Under 2.5
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.3%
Under 3.5
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
42.7%
No
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
1-0
13.6%
0-0
13.5%
0-1
9.4%
2-0
9.1%
2-1
8.1%
1-2 ✓
5.8%
0-2
4.7%
Ethnikos Achna goals ↓
Omonia Aradippou goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
9.4%
4.7%
1.4%
0.3%
1
14%
14%
5.8%
1.7%
0.4%
2
9.1%
8.1%
3.6%
1.0%
0.2%
3
3.7%
3.3%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.1%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ethnikos Achna goals (down), columns = Omonia Aradippou goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Omonia Nicosia
2.42
AEK Larnaca
1.92
Apollon Limassol
1.86
Pafos
1.72
Apoel Nicosia
1.44
Aris
1.42
Anorthosis
1.36
AEL
1.33
Omonia Aradippou
1.27
Olympiakos
1.21
Krasava Ypsonas
1.21
Akritas
1.06
Ethnikos Achna
1.00
Enosis
0.15
Ethnikos Achna is 0.27 points worse than Omonia Aradippou in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.27).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Omonia Nicosia
2.44
Pafos
1.83
AEK Larnaca
1.72
Aris
1.69
Apoel Nicosia
1.47
Apollon Limassol
1.44
AEL
1.24
Krasava Ypsonas
1.09
Anorthosis
1.06
Ethnikos Achna
1.03
Olympiakos
0.97
Akritas
0.94
Omonia Aradippou
0.94
Enosis
0.33
Ethnikos Achna is 0.09 goals better than Omonia Aradippou in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 0.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Omonia Nicosia
0.67
AEK Larnaca
0.92
Pafos
1.06
Apollon Limassol
1.14
Anorthosis
1.21
Apoel Nicosia
1.25
Aris
1.25
Omonia Aradippou
1.27
Olympiakos
1.33
Krasava Ypsonas
1.33
AEL
1.39
Ethnikos Achna
1.61
Akritas
1.76
Enosis
2.42
Ethnikos Achna is 0.33 goals worse than Omonia Aradippou in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 1.27).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Pafos
55%
Olympiakos
54%
Apoel Nicosia
54%
Apollon Limassol
53%
Aris
52%
Omonia Nicosia
51%
Anorthosis
50%
AEK Larnaca
49%
AEL
49%
Ethnikos Achna
48%
Krasava Ypsonas
47%
Akritas
44%
Omonia Aradippou
43%
Enosis
41%
Ethnikos Achna is 5.1 percentage points better than Omonia Aradippou in terms of average possession (48% vs 43%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ethnikos Achna
For 3.1 · Against 5.8 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.9 · Against 13.9 · Total 28.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Omonia Aradippou
For 3.6 · Against 3.8 · Total 7.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.9 · Against 15.0 · Total 30.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ethnikos Achna
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
7.2
9.4
1.1
1.0
1.2
30.0
33.2
27.7
vs Stronger (16)
11.0
9.0
12.0
0.8
0.8
0.8
22.7
25.0
21.5
vs Similar (27)
7.7
7.0
8.2
1.3
1.1
1.5
32.7
34.7
31.2
vs Weaker (7)
7.5
6.0
9.0
1.0
1.3
0.8
31.5
37.0
26.0
% over line
33%
20%
43%
18%
21%
15%
83%
100%
71%
% under line
67%
80%
57%
82%
79%
85%
17%
0%
29%
This opponent (Omonia Aradippou) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Omonia Aradippou
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.2
6.8
7.4
1.1
0.9
1.3
30.2
30.0
30.2
vs Stronger (18)
8.0
-
8.0
0.3
0.0
0.6
30.0
-
30.0
vs Similar (27)
6.5
6.8
6.2
1.5
1.5
1.5
31.0
30.0
32.0
vs Weaker (5)
10.0
-
10.0
1.4
0.0
3.5
24.0
-
24.0
% over line
33%
25%
38%
16%
15%
17%
92%
75%
100%
% under line
67%
75%
62%
84%
85%
83%
8%
25%
0%
This opponent (Ethnikos Achna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Omonia Nicosia
10.2
Apoel Nicosia
9.9
Aris
9.7
Krasava Ypsonas
9.6
Pafos
9.6
AEL
9.3
Akritas
9.3
AEK Larnaca
9.2
Apollon Limassol
9.1
Enosis
9.0
Anorthosis
8.7
Ethnikos Achna
8.4
Olympiakos
8.2
Omonia Aradippou
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aris
5.7
Anorthosis
5.3
Omonia Aradippou
5.2
Apoel Nicosia
5.1
AEK Larnaca
5.1
Ethnikos Achna
5.0
Enosis
4.9
Apollon Limassol
4.8
AEL
4.8
Pafos
4.7
Omonia Nicosia
4.5
Olympiakos
4.4
Akritas
4.4
Krasava Ypsonas
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Anorthosis
29.5
Omonia Aradippou
28.9
Enosis
28.2
Olympiakos
27.8
AEL
27.6
Apoel Nicosia
27.3
Ethnikos Achna
27.2
Aris
26.2
AEK Larnaca
26.0
Pafos
25.6
Krasava Ypsonas
24.9
Omonia Nicosia
24.5
Apollon Limassol
24.5
Akritas
23.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
33.2%
Under 9.5
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
68.7%
Under 3.5
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
92.1%
Under 21.5
7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ethnikos Achna
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.57
0.69
0.46
0.29
0.65
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
0.82
0.60
0.80
0.17
0.83
vs Similar (16)
0.31
0.44
0.29
0.14
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
4.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Omonia Aradippou) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Omonia Aradippou
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.67
0.38
0.69
0.29
0.64
vs Stronger (11)
0.09
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.17
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.44
0.56
0.44
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Ethnikos Achna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ethnikos Achna over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ethnikos Achna over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ethnikos Achna over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Omonia Aradippou over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Omonia Aradippou over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Omonia Aradippou over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ethnikos Achna
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.10
0.54
0.62
0.59
1.47
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
1.64
0.40
1.00
0.17
2.17
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.88
0.57
0.43
0.56
1.22
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Omonia Aradippou) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Omonia Aradippou
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.67
0.75
0.81
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
0.82
0.40
1.00
0.50
0.67
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.62
0.67
0.78
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ethnikos Achna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ethnikos Achna over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ethnikos Achna over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ethnikos Achna over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Omonia Aradippou over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Omonia Aradippou over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Omonia Aradippou over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 25.5 fouls
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Cyprus: 1. Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Omonia Nicosia
AEK Larnaca
Apollon Limassol
Pafos
Apoel Nicosia
Aris
Anorthosis
AEL
Krasava Ypsonas
Olympiakos
Akritas
Enosis