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Étoile Carouge vs Bellinzona Result & Analysis

Date: 22/11/2024
Time: 19:15
Final 2-2
Étoile Carouge
Étoile Carouge
Vs
51%
26%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Bellinzona
Bellinzona
Switzerland: Challenge League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Étoile Carouge win✗ Miss
50.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bellinzona win✗ Miss
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Étoile CarougeÉtoile Carouge

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L31W42W10W15L31W30W11D21W12LA·FC 24/08H·FC 30/08A·STA20/09H·FC 24/09A·STA27/09H·STA04/10A·NEU18/10H·STA25/10H·FC 01/11A·FC 09/11
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.861.431.861.001.861.86
vs Stronger (2)0.502.000.002.001.002.00
vs Similar (12)2.081.332.170.832.001.83
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %14% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Bellinzona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BellinzonaBellinzona

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W21W21W21W12L00D11D02L12L14LH·FC 24/08A·FC 31/08A·FC 20/09H·STA24/09A·FC 29/09H·FC 04/10A·STA19/10H·NEU26/10A·FC 01/11H·FC 09/11
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.471.271.331.331.60
vs Stronger (9)1.331.561.502.001.201.20
vs Similar (21)1.291.431.181.091.401.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Étoile Carouge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.5%
Under 1.5
21.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.8%
Under 2.5
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.5%
Under 3.5
68.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.2%
No
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
2-1
9.7%
1-0
9.0%
2-0
8.7%
0-0
7.0%
1-2
6.3%
3-1
5.6%
0-1
5.4%
Étoile Carouge goals ↓
Bellinzona goals →
01234
07.0%5.4%3.6%1.3%0.4%
19.0%12%6.3%2.3%0.6%
28.7%9.7%5.4%2.0%0.6%
35.0%5.6%3.1%1.1%0.3%
42.2%2.4%1.3%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Étoile Carouge goals (down), columns = Bellinzona goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Thun
2.00
FC Aarau
1.69
Étoile Carouge
1.50
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.47
FC Vaduz
1.42
FC WIL 1900
1.39
Bellinzona
1.31
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.14
Stade Nyonnais
1.00
FC Schaffhausen
0.78
Étoile Carouge is 0.19 points better than Bellinzona in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.31).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Thun
1.94
FC Aarau
1.75
Étoile Carouge
1.61
FC WIL 1900
1.61
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.58
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.50
Bellinzona
1.33
FC Vaduz
1.33
Stade Nyonnais
1.22
FC Schaffhausen
1.11
Étoile Carouge is 0.28 goals better than Bellinzona in terms of goals scored per game (1.61 vs 1.33).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Thun
1.08
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.19
FC Aarau
1.25
Étoile Carouge
1.31
FC Vaduz
1.36
Bellinzona
1.58
FC WIL 1900
1.58
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.81
FC Schaffhausen
1.92
Stade Nyonnais
1.92
Étoile Carouge is 0.28 goals better than Bellinzona in terms of goals conceded per game (1.31 vs 1.58).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Étoile CarougeÉtoile Carouge

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W21W10W02L01L10W00D20W01LA·FC 24/08H·FC 30/08A·STA20/09H·FC 24/09A·STA27/09H·STA04/10A·NEU18/10H·STA25/10H·FC 01/11A·FC 09/11
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.860.711.000.430.711.00
vs Stronger (2)0.001.500.002.000.001.00
vs Similar (12)1.000.581.170.170.831.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Bellinzona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BellinzonaBellinzona

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W11D00D10W02L00D11D01L02L03LH·FC 24/08A·FC 31/08A·FC 20/09H·STA24/09A·FC 29/09H·FC 04/10A·STA19/10H·NEU26/10A·FC 01/11H·FC 09/11
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.700.530.670.600.73
vs Stronger (9)0.220.780.251.500.200.20
vs Similar (21)0.710.670.640.360.801.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Étoile Carouge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Étoile Carouge over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bellinzona over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bellinzona over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bellinzona over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Étoile CarougeÉtoile Carouge

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D21W21W00D13L30W20W11D01L11DA·FC 24/08H·FC 30/08A·STA20/09H·FC 24/09A·STA27/09H·STA04/10A·NEU18/10H·STA25/10H·FC 01/11A·FC 09/11
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.710.860.571.140.86
vs Stronger (2)0.500.500.000.001.001.00
vs Similar (12)1.080.751.000.671.170.83
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Bellinzona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BellinzonaBellinzona

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W21W11D10W00D00D01L10W11DH·FC 24/08A·FC 31/08A·FC 20/09H·STA24/09A·FC 29/09H·FC 04/10A·STA19/10H·NEU26/10A·FC 01/11H·FC 09/11
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.770.730.670.730.87
vs Stronger (9)1.110.781.250.501.001.00
vs Similar (21)0.570.760.550.730.600.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Étoile Carouge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Étoile Carouge over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bellinzona over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bellinzona over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bellinzona over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (25)
€17m
SL (24)
€6m
FV (26)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
NXF (26)
€5m
BEL (34)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
ÉC (23)
€4m
SN (21)
€3m
Étoile Carouge and Bellinzona have a similar squad value (both €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (7)
€4m
SL (9)
€3m
FV (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
BEL (11)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FW1 (9)
€1m
ÉC (6)
€1m
Étoile Carouge and Bellinzona have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (8)
€5m
FV (8)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
BEL (8)
€1m
SL (5)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
ÉC (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
SN (3)
€0m
Étoile Carouge and Bellinzona have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (10)
€8m
FA (13)
€3m
SL (10)
€2m
BEL (15)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
ÉC (12)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
Étoile Carouge and Bellinzona have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
ÉC wins
1
Draws
0
BEL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Étoile Carouge vs Bellinzona · H/A from ÉC
DateH/AGameScore
03/08/24ABellinzona Vs ÉC1-1

Étoile CarougeÉtoile Carouge

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/11/24AFC Thun Vs ÉC2-1
01/11/24HÉC Vs FC Aarau2-1
25/10/24HÉC Vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy1-1
18/10/24ANeuchatel Xamax FC Vs ÉC0-3
04/10/24HÉC Vs Stade Nyonnais3-1
27/09/24AStade Lausanne-Ouchy Vs ÉC5-1
24/09/24HÉC Vs FC Vaduz1-0
20/09/24AStade Nyonnais Vs ÉC2-4
30/08/24HÉC Vs FC WIL 19003-1
24/08/24AFC Aarau Vs ÉC1-0

BellinzonaBellinzona

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/11/24HBEL Vs FC Aarau1-4
01/11/24AFC Schaffhausen Vs BEL2-1
26/10/24HBEL Vs Neuchatel Xamax FC0-2
19/10/24AStade Lausanne-Ouchy Vs BEL1-1
04/10/24HBEL Vs FC Thun0-0
29/09/24AFC Vaduz Vs BEL2-1
24/09/24HBEL Vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy2-1
20/09/24AFC Thun Vs BEL1-2
31/08/24AFC Aarau Vs BEL1-2
24/08/24HBEL Vs FC Schaffhausen2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Étoile Carouge
Étoile Carouge
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWL1.86
HomeWWWDW2.29
AwayLWLWL1.43
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %57%71%43%
AVG goals3.292.863.71
Over 1.5 %86%86%86%
Over 2.5 %64%57%71%
Over 3.5 %43%43%43%
Scored1.861.861.86
Conceded1.431.001.86
BTTS71%71%71%
Clean Sheet14%14%14%
Corners---
Cards---
Bellinzona
Bellinzona
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLLL1.22
HomeWWDLL1.20
AwayWWLDL1.24
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%32%32%
AVG goals2.562.442.68
Over 1.5 %76%72%80%
Over 2.5 %56%48%64%
Over 3.5 %24%24%24%
Scored1.141.041.24
Conceded1.421.401.44
BTTS58%44%72%
Clean Sheet22%28%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC ThunFC Thun3672
58%
2.0
7039+31
3.0
83%
56%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
4581.91.1
-
2FC AarauFC Aarau3661
44%
1.7
6345+18
3.0
83%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2131.81.2
-
3Étoile CarougeÉtoile Carouge3654
42%
1.5
5847+11
2.9
75%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.61.3
-
4Stade Lausanne-OuchyStade Lausanne-Ouchy3653
39%
1.5
5443+11
2.7
72%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3121.51.2
-
5FC VaduzFC Vaduz3651
36%
1.4
4849-1
2.7
69%
50%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.31.4
-
6FC WIL 1900FC WIL 19003650
36%
1.4
5857+1
3.2
89%
67%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.61.6
-
7BellinzonaBellinzona3647
33%
1.3
4857-9
2.9
92%
67%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.31.6
-
8Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC3641
33%
1.1
5765-8
3.4
92%
75%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.61.8
-
9Stade NyonnaisStade Nyonnais3636
28%
1.0
4469-25
3.1
83%
67%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.21.9
-
10FC SchaffhausenFC Schaffhausen3628
19%
0.8
4069-29
3.0
78%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.9
-
Switzerland: Challenge League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →

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