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Étoile Carouge vs FC Aarau Result & Analysis

Date: 24/07/2026
Time: 18:15
Final 3-0
Étoile Carouge
Étoile Carouge
Vs
27%
24%
48%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Aarau
FC Aarau
Switzerland: Challenge League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U
10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Étoile Carouge a 27% win probability against FC Aarau in the Switzerland: Challenge League on 2026-07-24, with 24% for the draw and 48% for FC Aarau. The model estimates around 3.3 total goals, with 3 the most likely total (22%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (11.0%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (85%).

Results analysis

Étoile Carouge finished 3-0 against FC Aarau (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 27% home win, 24% draw and 48% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (85%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Étoile Carouge win✓ Hit
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau win✗ Miss
48.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Étoile CarougeÉtoile Carouge

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-531W00D31W11D20W12L53W12L03L22DA·FC 22/03H·STA03/04A·FC 07/04H·STA10/04H·FC 17/04A·RAP24/04A·YVE03/05H·FC 08/05A·NEU11/05H·BEL15/05
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.531.061.501.861.57
vs Stronger (8)1.752.121.252.252.252.00
vs Similar (19)1.421.421.091.361.881.50
vs Weaker (3)0.670.670.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC AarauFC Aarau

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-513L00D30W22D31W51W21W22D00D12LH·ÉTO07/04A·BEL11/04H·STA22/04A·FC 25/04A·NEU01/05H·STA08/05A·FC 11/05H·YVE15/05H·GRA18/05A·GRA21/05
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.971.431.931.072.001.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)1.861.431.671.332.001.50
vs Weaker (23)2.001.432.001.002.001.91
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Étoile Carouge) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%010%121%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.7%
Under 1.5
15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.3%
Under 2.5
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.2%
Under 3.5
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
64.5%
No
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
1-2
9.3%
2-1
6.9%
0-2
6.7%
2-2
6.5%
0-1
6.2%
1-3
5.8%
0-0
4.8%
Étoile Carouge goals ↓
FC Aarau goals →
01234
04.8%6.2%6.7%4.2%2.0%
14.3%11%9.3%5.8%2.7%
23.7%6.9%6.5%4.1%1.9%
31.7%3.2%3.0%1.9%0.9%
40.6%1.1%1.0%0.6%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Étoile Carouge goals (down), columns = FC Aarau goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Aarau
2.22
Yverdon Sport
1.86
FC Winterthur
1.51
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.39
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.36
SC Kriens
1.24
Rapperswil
1.22
FC WIL 1900
1.11
Étoile Carouge
1.11
Stade Nyonnais
0.78
Étoile Carouge is 1.11 points worse than FC Aarau in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 2.22).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Aarau
2.14
Yverdon Sport
2.08
FC Winterthur
1.66
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.64
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.53
Rapperswil
1.44
SC Kriens
1.36
Étoile Carouge
1.28
FC WIL 1900
1.08
Stade Nyonnais
0.92
Étoile Carouge is 0.86 goals worse than FC Aarau in terms of goals scored per game (1.28 vs 2.14).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Aarau
1.31
Yverdon Sport
1.33
FC Winterthur
1.41
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.42
Étoile Carouge
1.50
FC WIL 1900
1.53
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.56
Stade Nyonnais
1.67
SC Kriens
1.72
Rapperswil
1.72
Étoile Carouge is 0.19 goals worse than FC Aarau in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.31).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Étoile CarougeÉtoile Carouge

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W00D10W00D20W11D22D12L02L01LA·FC 22/03H·STA03/04A·FC 07/04H·STA10/04H·FC 17/04A·RAP24/04A·YVE03/05H·FC 08/05A·NEU11/05H·BEL15/05
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.730.380.750.860.71
vs Stronger (8)0.620.880.251.001.000.75
vs Similar (19)0.630.740.450.730.880.75
vs Weaker (3)0.330.330.000.000.500.50
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC AarauFC Aarau

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L00D00D12L10W51W11D21W00D11DH·ÉTO07/04A·BEL11/04H·STA22/04A·FC 25/04A·NEU01/05H·STA08/05A·FC 11/05H·YVE15/05H·GRA18/05A·GRA21/05
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.870.930.531.001.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)1.140.711.330.671.000.75
vs Weaker (23)0.910.910.830.501.001.36
Clean sheet %43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Étoile Carouge) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Étoile Carouge over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FW (33)
€11m
FA (24)
€7m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FW (9)
€5m
FA (5)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FW (9)
€2m
FA (8)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FW (15)
€4m
FA (11)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 12. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
ÉC wins
1
Draws
5
FA wins

Head-to-head

Étoile Carouge vs FC Aarau · H/A from ÉC
DateH/AGameScore
07/04/26AFC Aarau Vs ÉC1-3
06/03/26HÉC Vs FC Aarau0-3
12/12/25AFC Aarau Vs ÉC2-1
26/09/25HÉC Vs FC Aarau1-3
16/05/25HÉC Vs FC Aarau1-3
28/03/25AFC Aarau Vs ÉC2-2
01/11/24HÉC Vs FC Aarau2-1
24/08/24AFC Aarau Vs ÉC1-0

Étoile CarougeÉtoile Carouge

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/05/26HÉC Vs Bellinzona2-2
11/05/26ANeuchatel Xamax FC Vs ÉC3-0
08/05/26HÉC Vs FC Vaduz1-2
03/05/26AYverdon Sport Vs ÉC3-5
24/04/26ARapperswil Vs ÉC2-1
17/04/26HÉC Vs FC WIL 19002-0
10/04/26HÉC Vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy1-1
07/04/26AFC Aarau Vs ÉC1-3
03/04/26HÉC Vs Stade Nyonnais0-0
22/03/26AFC WIL 1900 Vs ÉC1-3

FC AarauFC Aarau

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/05/26AGrasshoppers Vs FA2-1
18/05/26HFA Vs Grasshoppers0-0
15/05/26HFA Vs Yverdon Sport2-2
11/05/26AFC Vaduz Vs FA1-2
08/05/26HFA Vs Stade Nyonnais5-1
01/05/26ANeuchatel Xamax FC Vs FA1-3
25/04/26AFC WIL 1900 Vs FA2-2
22/04/26HFA Vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy3-0
11/04/26ABellinzona Vs FA0-0
07/04/26HFA Vs Étoile Carouge1-3

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Étoile Carouge
Étoile Carouge
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLD1.18
HomeDDWLD1.16
AwayWWLWL1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%28%32%
AVG goals2.802.762.84
Over 1.5 %80%88%72%
Over 2.5 %60%56%64%
Over 3.5 %30%28%32%
Scored1.381.321.44
Conceded1.421.441.40
BTTS54%60%48%
Clean Sheet24%24%24%
Corners---
Cards---
FC Aarau
FC Aarau
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDDL1.88
HomeLWWDD1.96
AwayDDWWL1.80
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%56%52%
AVG goals3.302.923.68
Over 1.5 %82%72%92%
Over 2.5 %66%56%76%
Over 3.5 %40%36%44%
Scored1.901.841.96
Conceded1.401.081.72
BTTS68%52%84%
Clean Sheet28%44%12%
Corners14.5011.0018.00
Cards6.677.006.50

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Stade Lausanne-OuchyStade Lausanne-Ouchy410
75%
2.5
72+5
2.2
100%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.5
-
2Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC49
75%
2.2
75+2
3.0
75%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
3FC WinterthurFC Winterthur47
50%
1.8
94+5
3.2
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
5242.21.0
-
4Yverdon SportYverdon Sport35
33%
1.7
53+2
2.7
100%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.0
-
5Étoile CarougeÉtoile Carouge45
25%
1.2
42+2
1.5
50%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.5
-
6FC AarauFC Aarau34
33%
1.3
35-2
2.7
100%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2231.01.7
-
7SC KriensSC Kriens33
33%
1.0
45-1
3.0
100%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
8RapperswilRapperswil43
25%
0.8
610-4
4.0
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.5
-
9FC WIL 1900FC WIL 190033
33%
1.0
611-5
5.7
100%
100%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.03.7
-
10Stade NyonnaisStade Nyonnais41
0%
0.2
26-4
2.0
75%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.5
-
Switzerland: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →

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