The match between Étoile Carouge and FC Winterthur is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. The odds are 34 % for a home victory, 27 % for a draw and 40 % for the visitors, so the win for FC Winterthur is the most likely outcome. The expected total goals hover at 2.9, but the most probable total is two, with a 24 % chance. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, carrying a 12.5 % probability.
Étoile Carouge, playing at home, averages 1.13 goals scored and 1.27 conceded against teams of similar strength. FC Winterthur, on the road, averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded in such matchups. Recent form shows the home side coming off a draw, while the visitors are on a two-game winning streak.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.9 %), Under 6.5 (96.9 %), Home under 3.5 goals (94.6 %), Away under 3.5 goals (92.9 %), Under 5.5 (92.2 %), Away +2 handicap (84.1 %), Home under 2.5 goals (83.3 %) and Under 4.5 (82.5 %).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Étoile Carouge win
33.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Winterthur win
40.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Étoile Carouge
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.43
1.13
1.33
1.53
1.53
vs Stronger (4)
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
1.23
1.35
1.07
1.29
1.42
1.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Winterthur) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Winterthur
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
2.20
1.27
2.00
1.40
2.40
vs Stronger (23)
1.22
2.43
1.08
2.25
1.36
2.64
vs Similar (7)
1.71
1.43
2.00
1.00
1.50
1.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Étoile Carouge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.7%
Under 1.5
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.4%
Under 2.5
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.0%
Under 3.5
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.9%
No
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
1-2
8.8%
2-1
7.9%
0-1
6.6%
2-2
6.3%
0-2
6.2%
0-0
5.9%
1-0
5.8%
Étoile Carouge goals ↓
FC Winterthur goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
6.6%
6.2%
3.3%
1.3%
1
5.8%
12%
8.8%
4.7%
1.9%
2
4.9%
7.9%
6.3%
3.4%
1.4%
3
2.4%
3.8%
3.0%
1.6%
0.6%
4
0.8%
1.4%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Étoile Carouge goals (down), columns = FC Winterthur goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
2.33
Yverdon Sport
2.00
SC Kriens
1.67
FC Winterthur
1.50
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
Étoile Carouge
1.33
FC Aarau
1.33
FC WIL 1900
0.83
Rapperswil
0.67
Stade Nyonnais
0.33
Étoile Carouge is 0.17 points worse than FC Winterthur in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Winterthur
2.00
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.83
SC Kriens
1.67
Yverdon Sport
1.67
FC WIL 1900
1.50
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
Rapperswil
1.33
FC Aarau
1.33
Étoile Carouge
1.00
Stade Nyonnais
0.67
Étoile Carouge is 1.00 goals worse than FC Winterthur in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
0.50
SC Kriens
1.00
Yverdon Sport
1.00
Étoile Carouge
1.00
FC Winterthur
1.17
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
FC Aarau
1.67
Stade Nyonnais
1.83
Rapperswil
2.17
FC WIL 1900
2.67
Étoile Carouge is 0.17 goals better than FC Winterthur in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Étoile Carouge or Draw
59.5%
Avg Implied -
33%
26%
41%
covers Étoile Carouge + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge or FC Winterthur
73.7%
Avg Implied -
33%
26%
41%
covers Étoile Carouge + FC Winterthur
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FC Winterthur
66.8%
Avg Implied -
33%
26%
41%
covers Draw + FC Winterthur
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Étoile Carouge over/under 0.5
Over
76.1%
Under
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 1.5
Over
41.9%
Under
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 2.5
Over
17.4%
Under
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 3.5
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Winterthur over/under 0.5
Over
79.8%
Under
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Winterthur over/under 1.5
Over
47.5%
Under
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Winterthur over/under 2.5
Over
21.7%
Under
78.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Winterthur over/under 3.5
Over
7.9%
Under
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Étoile Carouge, so a minus line means Étoile Carouge give that many goals of a start and FC Winterthur receive them. At -1, Étoile Carouge must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Étoile Carouge win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Étoile Carouge)
Étoile Carouge -2
5.8%
Draw -2
10.0%
FC Winterthur +2
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Étoile Carouge)
Étoile Carouge -1
15.8%
Draw -1
17.4%
FC Winterthur +1
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Étoile Carouge)
Étoile Carouge +1
59.5%
Draw +1
19.5%
FC Winterthur -1
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Étoile Carouge)
Étoile Carouge +2
79.0%
Draw +2
12.5%
FC Winterthur -2
8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Étoile Carouge
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.70
0.40
0.67
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.65
0.43
0.64
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Winterthur) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Winterthur
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.47
0.73
0.93
0.93
vs Stronger (23)
0.57
0.91
0.33
0.75
0.82
1.09
vs Similar (7)
1.14
0.57
1.00
0.67
1.25
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Étoile Carouge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
69.4%
Under 0.5
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.6%
Under 1.5
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.7%
Under 2.5
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Étoile Carouge over/under 0.5 HT
Over
40.1%
Under
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.5%
Under
90.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Winterthur over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.3%
Under
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Winterthur over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.9%
Under
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Winterthur over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Étoile Carouge
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
0.73
0.67
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.69
0.64
0.64
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Winterthur) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Winterthur
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.37
0.80
1.27
0.47
1.47
vs Stronger (23)
0.65
1.52
0.75
1.50
0.55
1.55
vs Similar (7)
0.57
0.86
1.00
0.33
0.25
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Étoile Carouge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.0%
Under 0.5
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.8%
Under 1.5
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.2%
Under 2.5
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Étoile Carouge over/under 0.5 2H
Over
46.5%
Under
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.0%
Under
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Winterthur over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.5%
Under
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Winterthur over/under 1.5 2H
Over
19.3%
Under
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Winterthur over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Winterthur · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Christian Gomis40%
Andrin Hunziker31%
Nishan Burkart18%
Pajtim Kasami17%
Roman Buess12%
Elias Maluvunu11%
Theo Golliard9%
Brian Beyer7%
Randy Schneider6%
Alexandre Jankewitz6%
Tibault Citherlet6%
Bafode Dansoko5%
Souleymane Diaby5%
Luca Zuffi4%
Silvan Sidler4%
Remo Arnold3%
Mirlind Kryeziu0%
Fabian Rohner0%
Stefanos Kapino0%
Lukas Mühl0%
Basil Stillhart0%
Dario Ulrich0%
Marvin Martins0%
Francis Momoh0%
Adrian Durrer0%
Stéphane Cueni0%
Carmine Chiappetta0%
Loïc Lüthi0%
Ledjan Sahitaj0%
Rhodri Smith0%
Leandro Maksutaj0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Fabian Rohner47%
Mirlind Kryeziu44%
Carmine Chiappetta33%
Adrian Durrer22%
Alexandre Jankewitz22%
Silvan Sidler21%
Pajtim Kasami21%
Stéphane Cueni20%
Christian Gomis20%
Andrin Hunziker19%
Marvin Martins18%
Roman Buess17%
Ledjan Sahitaj17%
Tibault Citherlet17%
Luca Zuffi14%
Bafode Dansoko14%
Lukas Mühl13%
Remo Arnold13%
Randy Schneider13%
Elias Maluvunu11%
Francis Momoh9%
Souleymane Diaby9%
Stefanos Kapino8%
Dario Ulrich8%
Rhodri Smith8%
Theo Golliard6%
Basil Stillhart0%
Nishan Burkart0%
Brian Beyer0%
Loïc Lüthi0%
Leandro Maksutaj0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Theo Golliard17%
Fabian Rohner12%
Andrin Hunziker11%
Silvan Sidler11%
Randy Schneider10%
Nishan Burkart9%
Dario Ulrich8%
Rhodri Smith8%
Elias Maluvunu7%
Brian Beyer7%
Alexandre Jankewitz6%
Adrian Durrer6%
Tibault Citherlet6%
Bafode Dansoko5%
Souleymane Diaby5%
Roman Buess4%
Mirlind Kryeziu0%
Stefanos Kapino0%
Lukas Mühl0%
Luca Zuffi0%
Basil Stillhart0%
Pajtim Kasami0%
Remo Arnold0%
Marvin Martins0%
Francis Momoh0%
Stéphane Cueni0%
Christian Gomis0%
Carmine Chiappetta0%
Loïc Lüthi0%
Ledjan Sahitaj0%
Leandro Maksutaj0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Andrin Hunziker33%
Christian Gomis20%
Pajtim Kasami12%
Fabian Rohner12%
Theo Golliard11%
Bafode Dansoko10%
Nishan Burkart9%
Dario Ulrich8%
Silvan Sidler4%
Elias Maluvunu4%
Randy Schneider3%
Mirlind Kryeziu0%
Stefanos Kapino0%
Lukas Mühl0%
Luca Zuffi0%
Basil Stillhart0%
Roman Buess0%
Remo Arnold0%
Marvin Martins0%
Francis Momoh0%
Alexandre Jankewitz0%
Adrian Durrer0%
Stéphane Cueni0%
Souleymane Diaby0%
Carmine Chiappetta0%
Brian Beyer0%
Loïc Lüthi0%
Ledjan Sahitaj0%
Rhodri Smith0%
Tibault Citherlet0%
Leandro Maksutaj0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FW (25)
€6m
SL (24)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
YS (22)
€5m
NXF (26)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
RAP (24)
€4m
ÉC (23)
€4m
SN (21)
€3m
SK (16)
€3m
Étoile Carouge's squad is €2m less valuable than FC Winterthur's (€4m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SL (9)
€3m
YS (10)
€3m
FW (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FW1 (9)
€1m
ÉC (6)
€1m
RAP (8)
€1m
SK (5)
€0m
Étoile Carouge's attack is €1m less valuable than FC Winterthur's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FW (7)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
RAP (6)
€2m
SL (5)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
ÉC (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
SK (3)
€1m
YS (3)
€1m
SN (3)
€0m
Étoile Carouge's midfield is €1m less valuable than FC Winterthur's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€3m
SL (10)
€2m
FW (9)
€2m
YS (9)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
ÉC (12)
€2m
SK (8)
€2m
RAP (10)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
Étoile Carouge and FC Winterthur have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Switzerland: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →
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Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Yverdon Sport
SC Kriens
Neuchatel Xamax FC
FC Aarau
FC WIL 1900
Rapperswil
Stade Nyonnais