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Étoile Carouge vs Neuchatel Xamax FC Result & Analysis

Date: 13/02/2026
Time: 19:15
Final 1-3
Étoile Carouge
Étoile Carouge
Vs
46%
27%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Switzerland: Challenge League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Étoile Carouge win✗ Miss
45.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC win✓ Hit
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Étoile CarougeÉtoile Carouge

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W00D02L02L00D12L12L22D21W33DH·BEL31/10A·STA07/11H·RAP21/11A·YVE30/11H·FC 05/12A·FC 12/12H·STA19/12A·STA23/01H·RAP30/01A·FC 06/02
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.471.401.401.001.53
vs Stronger (3)0.671.332.001.000.001.50
vs Similar (27)1.261.481.361.431.151.54
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L22D12L01L03L10W11D12L05L30WA·FC 02/11H·YVE07/11H·FC 28/11A·FC 05/12A·STA10/12H·BEL14/12A·STA19/12H·YVE25/01A·BEL30/01H·STA08/02
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.601.691.441.291.79
vs Stronger (7)0.862.001.001.800.502.50
vs Similar (23)1.701.482.001.271.421.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Étoile Carouge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%7%015%125%222%315%49%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.5%
Under 1.5
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.3%
Under 2.5
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.1%
Under 3.5
69.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.3%
No
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
2-1
9.3%
1-0
8.8%
2-0
7.9%
0-0
7.5%
1-2
7.0%
0-1
6.2%
2-2
5.5%
Étoile Carouge goals ↓
Neuchatel Xamax FC goals →
01234
07.5%6.2%4.4%1.7%0.5%
18.8%13%7.0%2.7%0.8%
27.9%9.3%5.5%2.2%0.6%
34.2%4.9%2.9%1.1%0.3%
41.7%2.0%1.2%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Étoile Carouge goals (down), columns = Neuchatel Xamax FC goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Vaduz
2.25
FC Aarau
2.22
Yverdon Sport
1.86
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.39
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.36
Rapperswil
1.22
Étoile Carouge
1.11
FC WIL 1900
1.11
Stade Nyonnais
0.78
Bellinzona
0.64
Étoile Carouge is 0.25 points worse than Neuchatel Xamax FC in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 1.36).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Aarau
2.14
Yverdon Sport
2.08
FC Vaduz
2.08
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.64
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.53
Rapperswil
1.44
Étoile Carouge
1.28
Bellinzona
1.11
FC WIL 1900
1.08
Stade Nyonnais
0.92
Étoile Carouge is 0.25 goals worse than Neuchatel Xamax FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.28 vs 1.53).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Vaduz
1.14
FC Aarau
1.31
Yverdon Sport
1.33
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.42
Étoile Carouge
1.50
FC WIL 1900
1.53
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.56
Stade Nyonnais
1.67
Rapperswil
1.72
Bellinzona
2.14
Étoile Carouge is 0.06 goals better than Neuchatel Xamax FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.56).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Étoile CarougeÉtoile Carouge

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D01L00D00D11D00D11D11D21WH·BEL31/10A·STA07/11H·RAP21/11A·YVE30/11H·FC 05/12A·FC 12/12H·STA19/12A·STA23/01H·RAP30/01A·FC 06/02
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.570.670.530.600.60
vs Stronger (3)0.330.671.001.000.000.50
vs Similar (27)0.670.560.640.500.690.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D11D01L00D03L00D00D01L04L30WA·FC 02/11H·YVE07/11H·FC 28/11A·FC 05/12A·STA10/12H·BEL14/12A·STA19/12H·YVE25/01A·BEL30/01H·STA08/02
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.900.750.750.571.07
vs Stronger (7)0.141.140.201.000.001.50
vs Similar (23)0.830.831.000.640.671.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Étoile Carouge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Étoile Carouge over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Étoile CarougeÉtoile Carouge

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D01L02L00D01L12L11D10W12LH·BEL31/10A·STA07/11H·RAP21/11A·YVE30/11H·FC 05/12A·FC 12/12H·STA19/12A·STA23/01H·RAP30/01A·FC 06/02
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.900.730.870.400.93
vs Stronger (3)0.330.671.000.000.001.00
vs Similar (27)0.590.930.710.930.460.92
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L11D11D01L00D10W11D11D01L00DA·FC 02/11H·YVE07/11H·FC 28/11A·FC 05/12A·STA10/12H·BEL14/12A·STA19/12H·YVE25/01A·BEL30/01H·STA08/02
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.700.940.690.710.71
vs Stronger (7)0.710.860.800.800.501.00
vs Similar (23)0.870.651.000.640.750.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Étoile Carouge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Étoile Carouge over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SL (24)
€6m
FV (26)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
YS (22)
€5m
NXF (26)
€5m
BEL (34)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
RAP (24)
€4m
ÉC (23)
€4m
SN (21)
€3m
Étoile Carouge and Neuchatel Xamax FC have a similar squad value (both €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SL (9)
€3m
YS (10)
€3m
FV (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
BEL (11)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FW1 (9)
€1m
ÉC (6)
€1m
RAP (8)
€1m
Étoile Carouge and Neuchatel Xamax FC have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FV (8)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
RAP (6)
€2m
BEL (8)
€1m
SL (5)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
ÉC (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
YS (3)
€1m
SN (3)
€0m
Étoile Carouge and Neuchatel Xamax FC have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€3m
SL (10)
€2m
BEL (15)
€2m
YS (9)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
ÉC (12)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
RAP (10)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
Étoile Carouge and Neuchatel Xamax FC have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
4
ÉC wins
0
Draws
2
NXF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Étoile Carouge vs Neuchatel Xamax FC · H/A from ÉC
DateH/AGameScore
17/10/25HÉC Vs Neuchatel Xamax FC0-2
22/08/25ANeuchatel Xamax FC Vs ÉC2-1
09/05/25ANeuchatel Xamax FC Vs ÉC1-2
07/02/25HÉC Vs Neuchatel Xamax FC2-1
18/10/24ANeuchatel Xamax FC Vs ÉC0-3
26/07/24HÉC Vs Neuchatel Xamax FC3-1

Étoile CarougeÉtoile Carouge

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/02/26AFC Vaduz Vs ÉC3-3
30/01/26HÉC Vs Rapperswil2-1
23/01/26AStade Nyonnais Vs ÉC2-2
19/12/25HÉC Vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy1-2
12/12/25AFC Aarau Vs ÉC2-1
05/12/25HÉC Vs FC WIL 19000-0
30/11/25AYverdon Sport Vs ÉC2-0
21/11/25HÉC Vs Rapperswil0-2
07/11/25AStade Nyonnais Vs ÉC0-0
31/10/25HÉC Vs Bellinzona2-0

Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/02/26HNXF Vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy3-0
30/01/26ABellinzona Vs NXF5-0
25/01/26HNXF Vs Yverdon Sport1-2
19/12/25AStade Nyonnais Vs NXF1-1
14/12/25HNXF Vs Bellinzona1-0
10/12/25AStade Lausanne-Ouchy Vs NXF3-0
05/12/25AFC Vaduz Vs NXF1-0
28/11/25HNXF Vs FC Aarau1-2
07/11/25HNXF Vs Yverdon Sport2-2
02/11/25AFC WIL 1900 Vs NXF2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Étoile Carouge
Étoile Carouge
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDWD1.18
HomeWLDLW1.60
AwayDLLDD0.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%44%16%
AVG goals2.662.682.64
Over 1.5 %76%84%68%
Over 2.5 %56%52%60%
Over 3.5 %26%24%28%
Scored1.301.481.12
Conceded1.361.201.52
BTTS56%64%48%
Clean Sheet24%24%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLLW1.12
HomeDLWLW1.27
AwayLLLDL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%35%29%
AVG goals3.103.232.96
Over 1.5 %90%92%88%
Over 2.5 %66%69%62%
Over 3.5 %32%35%29%
Scored1.441.621.25
Conceded1.661.621.71
BTTS66%73%58%
Clean Sheet14%15%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC VaduzFC Vaduz3681
69%
2.2
7541+34
3.2
81%
64%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2222.11.1
-
2FC AarauFC Aarau3680
69%
2.2
7747+30
3.4
81%
69%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2132.11.3
-
3Yverdon SportYverdon Sport3667
56%
1.9
7548+27
3.4
83%
75%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3122.11.3
-
4Stade Lausanne-OuchyStade Lausanne-Ouchy3650
39%
1.4
5951+8
3.1
89%
64%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3121.61.4
-
5Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC3649
39%
1.4
5556-1
3.1
83%
67%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.51.6
-
6RapperswilRapperswil3644
39%
1.2
5262-10
3.2
81%
67%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1221.41.7
-
7Étoile CarougeÉtoile Carouge3640
28%
1.1
4654-8
2.8
83%
58%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.31.5
-
8FC WIL 1900FC WIL 19003640
28%
1.1
3955-16
2.6
69%
47%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.11.5
-
9Stade NyonnaisStade Nyonnais3628
14%
0.8
3360-27
2.6
64%
44%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1010.91.7
-
10BellinzonaBellinzona3623
14%
0.6
4077-37
3.2
81%
61%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.12.1
-
Switzerland: Challenge League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →

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