The match between Étoile Carouge and Neuchatel Xamax FC is expected to be a closely contested affair, with the recent form of both teams playing a significant role. Neuchatel Xamax FC has been on a 3-game winning run, while Étoile Carouge is coming off a defeat. The model predicts a home win, with a 43% chance of Étoile Carouge emerging victorious, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 30% chance of Neuchatel Xamax FC winning.
The expected total number of goals is 2.9, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 12.8%. Étoile Carouge has been scoring an average of 1.21 goals at home and conceding 1.43 goals, while Neuchatel Xamax FC has been scoring 1.07 goals away and conceding 1.79 goals.
The model's selection is the Over 1.5, with a 79% chance of being correct. The suggested picks include the Over 1.5, with a 79% probability, and the Home win, with a 43% probability. The Home win percentage is 43%, the Draw percentage is 27%, and the Away win percentage is 30%.
Results analysis
In a stunning turn of events, Neuchatel Xamax FC secured a 0-1 away win, extending their run of three consecutive victories. The win marks a surprise upset, as Étoile Carouge had been on a downward spiral following a defeat. The pre-match favourite, a Home win, was incorrect according to the model, which predicted a Home win with a 43% probability. The model's selection was wrong, as the actual result was an Away win. The model's suggested picks included Over 1.5, which missed with a 79% probability, and no other selections were provided.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Étoile Carouge win✗ Miss
42.5%
Avg Implied 38.1% · @ 2.40
Edge
+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.49
Dafabet
2.46
Superbet
2.45
Betano
2.45
888Sport
2.40
Draw✗ Miss
27.1%
Avg Implied 26.0% · @ 3.51
Edge
+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
3.75
Pinnacle
3.69
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.60
Dafabet
3.60
Neuchatel Xamax FC win✓ Hit
30.4%
Avg Implied 36.0% · @ 2.53
Edge
-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
2.70
Pinnacle
2.66
Dafabet
2.60
Superbet
2.57
BetVictor
2.55
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Étoile Carouge
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.43
1.13
1.33
1.80
1.53
vs Stronger (4)
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
1.38
1.35
1.07
1.29
1.75
1.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.60
1.80
1.40
1.13
1.80
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
2.00
1.25
2.25
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (24)
1.54
1.50
2.00
1.09
1.15
1.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Étoile Carouge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
79.0%
@ 1.13-2.8%
Under 1.5
21.0%
@ 5.11+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.16
888Sport
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Pinnacle
1.14
Under
Pinnacle
5.65
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.40
Bet365
5.00
888Sport
5.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.4%
@ 1.48-8.2%
Under 2.5
45.6%
@ 2.48+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.53
10Bet
1.50
888Sport
1.50
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Under
Pinnacle
2.61
Betfair
2.60
BetVictor
2.55
10Bet
2.50
Superbet
2.45
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.1%
@ 2.19-10.4%
Under 3.5
67.9%
@ 1.62+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
2.25
Pinnacle
2.22
Betano
2.22
Bet365
2.20
10Bet
2.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.68
Marathonbet
1.63
1xBet
1.63
10Bet
1.62
Betano
1.62
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.6%
@ 1.41-6.9%
No
41.4%
@ 2.67+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.42
BetVictor
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
No
Betfair
2.88
1xBet
2.70
BetVictor
2.70
Superbet
2.65
Marathonbet
2.64
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%@ 7.10+6.5%
2-1
9.1%@ 9.02+4.2%
1-0
7.8%@ 11.80+4.1%
1-2
7.5%@ 9.17+2.7%
2-0
7.0%@ 14.54+4.0%
0-0
6.9%@ 15.64+4.1%
0-1 ✓
6.3%@ 12.39+2.7%
2-2
5.9%@ 9.94+1.4%
Étoile Carouge goals ↓
Neuchatel Xamax FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
6.3%
4.8%
2.1%
0.7%
1
7.8%
13%
7.5%
3.2%
1.0%
2
7.0%
9.1%
5.9%
2.5%
0.8%
3
3.7%
4.7%
3.1%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.4%
1.9%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Étoile Carouge goals (down), columns = Neuchatel Xamax FC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
2.20
SC Kriens
1.80
Yverdon Sport
1.80
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.80
FC Winterthur
1.60
Étoile Carouge
1.60
FC Aarau
1.40
FC WIL 1900
0.80
Rapperswil
0.60
Stade Nyonnais
0.20
Étoile Carouge is 0.20 points worse than Neuchatel Xamax FC in terms of average points per game (1.60 vs 1.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Winterthur
2.00
SC Kriens
1.80
Yverdon Sport
1.60
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.60
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.60
FC WIL 1900
1.40
Rapperswil
1.40
Étoile Carouge
1.20
FC Aarau
1.20
Stade Nyonnais
0.40
Étoile Carouge is 0.40 goals worse than Neuchatel Xamax FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 1.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
0.60
Étoile Carouge
0.60
SC Kriens
1.00
FC Winterthur
1.00
Yverdon Sport
1.00
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.40
FC Aarau
1.60
Stade Nyonnais
1.80
Rapperswil
2.40
FC WIL 1900
2.80
Étoile Carouge is 0.80 goals better than Neuchatel Xamax FC in terms of goals conceded per game (0.60 vs 1.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Étoile Carouge
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.33
0.67
0.87
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.58
0.65
0.36
0.64
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.90
1.00
0.73
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.83
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.83
0.92
1.27
0.64
0.46
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Étoile Carouge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Étoile Carouge over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Étoile Carouge
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.73
0.80
0.67
0.93
0.80
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.81
0.69
0.71
0.64
0.92
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.70
0.80
0.67
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
1.17
1.00
1.25
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.71
0.58
0.73
0.45
0.69
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Étoile Carouge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Étoile Carouge over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
79.0%
1.13
Betano
1.16
888Sport
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Pinnacle
1.14
-2.8%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FW (25)
€6m
SL (24)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
YS (22)
€5m
NXF (26)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
RAP (24)
€4m
ÉC (23)
€4m
SN (21)
€3m
SK (16)
€3m
Étoile Carouge and Neuchatel Xamax FC have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SL (9)
€3m
YS (10)
€3m
FW (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FW1 (9)
€1m
ÉC (6)
€1m
RAP (8)
€1m
SK (5)
€0m
Étoile Carouge and Neuchatel Xamax FC have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FW (7)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
RAP (6)
€2m
SL (5)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
ÉC (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
SK (3)
€1m
YS (3)
€1m
SN (3)
€0m
Étoile Carouge and Neuchatel Xamax FC have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€3m
SL (10)
€2m
FW (9)
€2m
YS (9)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
ÉC (12)
€2m
SK (8)
€2m
RAP (10)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
Étoile Carouge and Neuchatel Xamax FC have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Switzerland: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
SC Kriens
Yverdon Sport
FC Winterthur
FC Aarau
FC WIL 1900
Rapperswil
Stade Nyonnais