The contest between Étoile Carouge and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win at 39%. Home and away win chances sit at 32% and 39% respectively, with a draw probability of 29%. The expected total goals hover at 2.6, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.9% chance. Étoile Carouge, playing at home against a similarly-strength opponent, averages 1.13 goals scored and 1.20 conceded. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, on the road, averages 1.00 goal scored and 1.43 conceded against similar teams. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.5%), Under 5.5 (95.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.2%), Under 4.5 (88.3%), Home under 2.5 goals (87.6%), and Away +2 handicap (85.8%). Both sides have been solid recently, with Étoile Carouge coming off a win and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy unbeaten in five, yet the edge remains narrow.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Étoile Carouge win
31.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win
39.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Étoile Carouge
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.43
1.13
1.33
1.53
1.53
vs Stronger (4)
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
1.23
1.35
1.07
1.29
1.42
1.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.23
2.13
1.07
1.13
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.59
1.30
2.23
1.15
1.00
1.43
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.67
1.50
0.50
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Étoile Carouge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.8%
Under 1.5
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.3%
Under 2.5
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.6%
Under 3.5
74.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.3%
No
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
0-1
9.3%
0-0
9.0%
1-2
8.6%
1-0
7.9%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
7.2%
2-0
5.5%
Étoile Carouge goals ↓
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.0%
9.3%
7.2%
3.3%
1.1%
1
7.9%
14%
8.6%
3.9%
1.4%
2
5.5%
7.5%
5.2%
2.4%
0.8%
3
2.2%
3.0%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.7%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Étoile Carouge goals (down), columns = Stade Lausanne-Ouchy goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
2.33
Yverdon Sport
2.00
SC Kriens
1.67
FC Winterthur
1.50
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
Étoile Carouge
1.33
FC Aarau
1.33
FC WIL 1900
0.83
Rapperswil
0.67
Stade Nyonnais
0.33
Étoile Carouge is 1.00 points worse than Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 2.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Winterthur
2.00
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.83
SC Kriens
1.67
Yverdon Sport
1.67
FC WIL 1900
1.50
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
Rapperswil
1.33
FC Aarau
1.33
Étoile Carouge
1.00
Stade Nyonnais
0.67
Étoile Carouge is 0.83 goals worse than Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
0.50
SC Kriens
1.00
Yverdon Sport
1.00
Étoile Carouge
1.00
FC Winterthur
1.17
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
FC Aarau
1.67
Stade Nyonnais
1.83
Rapperswil
2.17
FC WIL 1900
2.67
Étoile Carouge is 0.50 goals worse than Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Étoile Carouge or Draw
60.3%
Avg Implied -
31%
29%
40%
covers Étoile Carouge + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge or Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
71.0%
Avg Implied -
31%
29%
40%
covers Étoile Carouge + Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
68.7%
Avg Implied -
31%
29%
40%
covers Draw + Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Étoile Carouge over/under 0.5
Over
69.7%
Under
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 1.5
Over
33.5%
Under
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 2.5
Over
11.9%
Under
88.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 3.5
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 0.5
Over
74.6%
Under
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 1.5
Over
39.8%
Under
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 2.5
Over
16.0%
Under
84.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 3.5
Over
5.1%
Under
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Étoile Carouge, so a minus line means Étoile Carouge give that many goals of a start and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy receive them. At -1, Étoile Carouge must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Étoile Carouge win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Étoile Carouge)
Étoile Carouge -2
4.4%
Draw -2
9.2%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy +2
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Étoile Carouge)
Étoile Carouge -1
13.5%
Draw -1
17.8%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy +1
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Étoile Carouge)
Étoile Carouge +1
60.3%
Draw +1
20.6%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy -1
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Étoile Carouge)
Étoile Carouge +2
80.9%
Draw +2
12.1%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy -2
7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Étoile Carouge
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.70
0.40
0.67
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.65
0.43
0.64
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.53
1.07
0.53
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.78
0.56
1.15
0.54
0.43
0.57
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Étoile Carouge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Étoile Carouge over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Étoile Carouge
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
0.73
0.67
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.69
0.64
0.64
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.70
1.07
0.53
0.67
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.81
0.74
1.08
0.62
0.57
0.86
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Étoile Carouge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Étoile Carouge over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ismael Gharbi21%
Alban Ajdini19%
Vitalie Damașcan12%
Mischa Eberhard12%
Elies Mahmoud12%
Ibrahim Diakité10%
Liridon Mulaj10%
Mergim Qarri9%
Gabriel Kyeremateng8%
Lucas Pos7%
Florian Danho7%
Giovani Bamba5%
Ryan Kadima4%
Sahmkou Camara4%
Dylan Ouedraogo0%
Abdallah Ali Mohamed0%
Lamine Gassama0%
Ogou Akichi0%
Jeremy Vachoux0%
Romain Bayard0%
Dany Da Silva0%
Linus Obexer0%
Valon Hamdiu0%
Charles Abi0%
Zachary Marvin Hadji0%
Lavdrim Hajrulahu0%
Nathan Garcia0%
Emmanuel Essiam0%
Michael Heule0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Linus Obexer33%
Ogou Akichi32%
Giovani Bamba32%
Dylan Ouedraogo31%
Valon Hamdiu28%
Lucas Pos25%
Mischa Eberhard25%
Ryan Kadima24%
Mergim Qarri24%
Elies Mahmoud22%
Florian Danho20%
Sahmkou Camara20%
Abdallah Ali Mohamed19%
Ismael Gharbi17%
Jeremy Vachoux16%
Lamine Gassama15%
Emmanuel Essiam14%
Vitalie Damașcan12%
Romain Bayard10%
Alban Ajdini8%
Michael Heule8%
Nathan Garcia7%
Liridon Mulaj6%
Lavdrim Hajrulahu3%
Dany Da Silva0%
Charles Abi0%
Zachary Marvin Hadji0%
Gabriel Kyeremateng0%
Ibrahim Diakité0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ismael Gharbi21%
Elies Mahmoud16%
Mergim Qarri15%
Lamine Gassama10%
Gabriel Kyeremateng8%
Florian Danho7%
Liridon Mulaj6%
Vitalie Damașcan6%
Alban Ajdini6%
Ryan Kadima4%
Abdallah Ali Mohamed4%
Ogou Akichi3%
Dylan Ouedraogo0%
Jeremy Vachoux0%
Romain Bayard0%
Dany Da Silva0%
Lucas Pos0%
Linus Obexer0%
Valon Hamdiu0%
Charles Abi0%
Zachary Marvin Hadji0%
Lavdrim Hajrulahu0%
Giovani Bamba0%
Nathan Garcia0%
Mischa Eberhard0%
Emmanuel Essiam0%
Michael Heule0%
Ibrahim Diakité0%
Sahmkou Camara0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Florian Danho33%
Alban Ajdini14%
Ismael Gharbi14%
Liridon Mulaj6%
Vitalie Damașcan6%
Elies Mahmoud3%
Dylan Ouedraogo0%
Abdallah Ali Mohamed0%
Lamine Gassama0%
Ogou Akichi0%
Jeremy Vachoux0%
Romain Bayard0%
Ryan Kadima0%
Dany Da Silva0%
Lucas Pos0%
Linus Obexer0%
Valon Hamdiu0%
Charles Abi0%
Zachary Marvin Hadji0%
Lavdrim Hajrulahu0%
Giovani Bamba0%
Mergim Qarri0%
Nathan Garcia0%
Mischa Eberhard0%
Gabriel Kyeremateng0%
Emmanuel Essiam0%
Michael Heule0%
Ibrahim Diakité0%
Sahmkou Camara0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FW (25)
€6m
SL (24)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
YS (22)
€5m
NXF (26)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
RAP (24)
€4m
ÉC (23)
€4m
SN (21)
€3m
SK (16)
€3m
Étoile Carouge's squad is €2m less valuable than Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's (€4m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SL (9)
€3m
YS (10)
€3m
FW (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FW1 (9)
€1m
ÉC (6)
€1m
RAP (8)
€1m
SK (5)
€0m
Étoile Carouge's attack is €1m less valuable than Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FW (7)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
RAP (6)
€2m
SL (5)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
ÉC (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
SK (3)
€1m
YS (3)
€1m
SN (3)
€0m
Étoile Carouge and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€3m
SL (10)
€2m
FW (9)
€2m
YS (9)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
ÉC (12)
€2m
SK (8)
€2m
RAP (10)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
Étoile Carouge and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Switzerland: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Yverdon Sport
SC Kriens
FC Winterthur
Neuchatel Xamax FC
FC Aarau
FC WIL 1900
Rapperswil
Stade Nyonnais