The model favours an away win, with a 58% chance of Yverdon Sport taking the points, followed by a 24% draw and a 19% home win. The expected total of goals is three, but the most likely total is two, with a 23% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, occurring with an 11.1% chance. Étoile Carouge, playing at home against a stronger side, averages two goals scored and two conceded, while Yverdon Sport, away against a weaker opponent, averages 2.55 goals scored and 1.18 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 98.8%, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.8%, Under 6.5 at 96.6%, Away +2 handicap at 92.9%, Under 5.5 at 91.5%, Home under 2.5 goals at 91.0%, Away under 3.5 goals at 86.4%, and Away over 0.5 goals at 86.0%. The home side’s recent form shows a win, while the away side remains unbeaten in five.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Étoile Carouge win
17.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Yverdon Sport win
58.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Étoile Carouge
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.43
1.13
1.33
1.53
1.53
vs Stronger (4)
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
1.23
1.35
1.07
1.29
1.42
1.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Yverdon Sport) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Yverdon Sport
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.33
1.67
1.33
2.33
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.29
1.86
1.00
1.75
1.67
2.00
vs Weaker (23)
2.22
1.17
1.91
1.18
2.50
1.17
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Étoile Carouge) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.3%
Under 1.5
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.0%
Under 2.5
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
35.6%
Under 3.5
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
56.3%
No
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
1-2
10.0%
0-2
9.7%
0-1
8.8%
1-3
6.6%
0-3
6.5%
0-0
5.9%
2-1
5.1%
Étoile Carouge goals ↓
Yverdon Sport goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
8.8%
9.7%
6.5%
3.2%
1
4.0%
11%
10.0%
6.6%
3.3%
2
2.6%
5.1%
5.1%
3.4%
1.7%
3
0.9%
1.7%
1.7%
1.2%
0.6%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Étoile Carouge goals (down), columns = Yverdon Sport goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
2.33
Yverdon Sport
2.00
SC Kriens
1.67
FC Winterthur
1.50
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
Étoile Carouge
1.33
FC Aarau
1.33
FC WIL 1900
0.83
Rapperswil
0.67
Stade Nyonnais
0.33
Étoile Carouge is 0.67 points worse than Yverdon Sport in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Winterthur
2.00
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.83
SC Kriens
1.67
Yverdon Sport
1.67
FC WIL 1900
1.50
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
Rapperswil
1.33
FC Aarau
1.33
Étoile Carouge
1.00
Stade Nyonnais
0.67
Étoile Carouge is 0.67 goals worse than Yverdon Sport in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
0.50
SC Kriens
1.00
Yverdon Sport
1.00
Étoile Carouge
1.00
FC Winterthur
1.17
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
FC Aarau
1.67
Stade Nyonnais
1.83
Rapperswil
2.17
FC WIL 1900
2.67
Étoile Carouge and Yverdon Sport are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Étoile Carouge or Draw
41.1%
Avg Implied -
18%
23%
59%
covers Étoile Carouge + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge or Yverdon Sport
76.7%
Avg Implied -
18%
23%
59%
covers Étoile Carouge + Yverdon Sport
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Yverdon Sport
82.2%
Avg Implied -
18%
23%
59%
covers Draw + Yverdon Sport
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Étoile Carouge over/under 0.5
Over
64.0%
Under
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 1.5
Over
27.3%
Under
72.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 2.5
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 3.5
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yverdon Sport over/under 0.5
Over
86.4%
Under
13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yverdon Sport over/under 1.5
Over
59.2%
Under
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yverdon Sport over/under 2.5
Over
32.1%
Under
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yverdon Sport over/under 3.5
Over
14.2%
Under
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Étoile Carouge, so a minus line means Étoile Carouge give that many goals of a start and Yverdon Sport receive them. At -1, Étoile Carouge must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Étoile Carouge win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Étoile Carouge)
Étoile Carouge -2
1.8%
Draw -2
4.8%
Yverdon Sport +2
93.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Étoile Carouge)
Étoile Carouge -1
6.6%
Draw -1
11.2%
Yverdon Sport +1
82.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Étoile Carouge)
Étoile Carouge +1
41.1%
Draw +1
22.7%
Yverdon Sport -1
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Étoile Carouge)
Étoile Carouge +2
63.9%
Draw +2
18.3%
Yverdon Sport -2
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Étoile Carouge
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.70
0.40
0.67
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.65
0.43
0.64
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Yverdon Sport) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Yverdon Sport
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.67
0.73
0.53
1.00
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.86
0.86
0.75
0.50
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (23)
0.87
0.61
0.73
0.55
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Étoile Carouge) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Étoile Carouge over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yverdon Sport over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yverdon Sport over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yverdon Sport over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Étoile Carouge
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
0.73
0.67
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.69
0.64
0.64
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Yverdon Sport) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Yverdon Sport
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.67
0.93
0.80
1.33
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.43
1.00
0.25
1.25
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (23)
1.35
0.57
1.18
0.64
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Étoile Carouge) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Étoile Carouge over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yverdon Sport over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yverdon Sport over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yverdon Sport over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Yverdon Sport · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kevin Carlos Omoruyi33%
Boris Céspedes25%
Antonio Marchesano24%
Marley Aké21%
Cristiano Piccini20%
Ronaldo Tavares17%
Mitchy Ntelo15%
Moussa Baradji15%
Hugo Komano11%
Varol Tasar11%
William Le Pogam7%
Mauro Rodrigues4%
Fode Sylla4%
Mateusz Łęgowski3%
Christian Marques3%
Haithem Loucif0%
Cristian Núñez0%
Paul Bernardoni0%
Niklas Gunnarsson0%
Dimitrije Kamenović0%
Anthony Sauthier0%
Vegard Kongsro0%
Magnus Grødem0%
Mohamed Tijani0%
Ricardo Azevedo Alves0%
Dexter Lembikisa0%
Jesse Hautier0%
Gonçalo Esteves0%
Djibril Diop0%
Dion Kacuri0%
Franco González0%
Jason Gnakpa0%
Ahmedin Avdic0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Cristiano Piccini60%
Dimitrije Kamenović50%
Boris Céspedes42%
Mohamed Tijani33%
Moussa Baradji26%
Mateusz Łęgowski24%
Cristian Núñez20%
Vegard Kongsro20%
Christian Marques19%
Dion Kacuri19%
Anthony Sauthier18%
Ronaldo Tavares17%
Varol Tasar17%
Ricardo Azevedo Alves17%
Jason Gnakpa15%
Hugo Komano14%
Fode Sylla14%
William Le Pogam14%
Antonio Marchesano12%
Marley Aké12%
Niklas Gunnarsson9%
Paul Bernardoni8%
Mauro Rodrigues7%
Haithem Loucif0%
Magnus Grødem0%
Kevin Carlos Omoruyi0%
Mitchy Ntelo0%
Dexter Lembikisa0%
Jesse Hautier0%
Gonçalo Esteves0%
Djibril Diop0%
Franco González0%
Ahmedin Avdic0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Antonio Marchesano18%
Ricardo Azevedo Alves17%
Franco González14%
Moussa Baradji11%
Marley Aké9%
Mauro Rodrigues7%
Mateusz Łęgowski7%
Dion Kacuri6%
Anthony Sauthier6%
Varol Tasar6%
Boris Céspedes4%
Fode Sylla4%
Christian Marques3%
Cristiano Piccini0%
Haithem Loucif0%
Cristian Núñez0%
Paul Bernardoni0%
Niklas Gunnarsson0%
Ronaldo Tavares0%
Dimitrije Kamenović0%
William Le Pogam0%
Vegard Kongsro0%
Magnus Grødem0%
Mohamed Tijani0%
Kevin Carlos Omoruyi0%
Hugo Komano0%
Mitchy Ntelo0%
Dexter Lembikisa0%
Jesse Hautier0%
Gonçalo Esteves0%
Djibril Diop0%
Jason Gnakpa0%
Ahmedin Avdic0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kevin Carlos Omoruyi67%
Cristiano Piccini20%
Varol Tasar17%
Antonio Marchesano12%
Marley Aké12%
Moussa Baradji11%
Hugo Komano6%
Fode Sylla4%
Anthony Sauthier3%
Haithem Loucif0%
Cristian Núñez0%
Paul Bernardoni0%
Niklas Gunnarsson0%
Ronaldo Tavares0%
Dimitrije Kamenović0%
Mauro Rodrigues0%
William Le Pogam0%
Boris Céspedes0%
Vegard Kongsro0%
Magnus Grødem0%
Mohamed Tijani0%
Christian Marques0%
Ricardo Azevedo Alves0%
Mitchy Ntelo0%
Dexter Lembikisa0%
Mateusz Łęgowski0%
Jesse Hautier0%
Gonçalo Esteves0%
Djibril Diop0%
Dion Kacuri0%
Franco González0%
Jason Gnakpa0%
Ahmedin Avdic0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FW (25)
€6m
SL (24)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
YS (22)
€5m
NXF (26)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
RAP (24)
€4m
ÉC (23)
€4m
SN (21)
€3m
SK (16)
€3m
Étoile Carouge and Yverdon Sport have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SL (9)
€3m
YS (10)
€3m
FW (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FW1 (9)
€1m
ÉC (6)
€1m
RAP (8)
€1m
SK (5)
€0m
Étoile Carouge's attack is €1m less valuable than Yverdon Sport's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FW (7)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
RAP (6)
€2m
SL (5)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
ÉC (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
SK (3)
€1m
YS (3)
€1m
SN (3)
€0m
Étoile Carouge and Yverdon Sport have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€3m
SL (10)
€2m
FW (9)
€2m
YS (9)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
ÉC (12)
€2m
SK (8)
€2m
RAP (10)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
Étoile Carouge and Yverdon Sport have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Switzerland: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
SC Kriens
FC Winterthur
Neuchatel Xamax FC
FC Aarau
FC WIL 1900
Rapperswil
Stade Nyonnais