Everton vs Bournemouth Result & Analysis

The encounter between Everton and Bournemouth sits on a razor-thin edge, with the model favouring a home win but the probabilities almost level: 36% for Everton, 29% for a draw, and 35% for Bournemouth. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly active match, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.9% chance. Everton, playing at home against a similarly ranked side, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.33 conceded, while Bournemouth on the road averages 1.82 scored and 2.27 conceded. The model’s selections cover a range of over/under and other metrics: Under 5.5 cards at 79.6%, Under 25.5 fouls at 75.4%, Over 2.5 cards at 75.2%, Over 1.5 goals at 74.1%, Under 3.5 goals at 74.1%, Over 19.5 fouls at 71.9%, and Over 8.5 corners at 70.7%. Each pick is presented with its exact percentage, and the match result remains the most probable outcome.

The pre-match favourite, Everton, failed to deliver, as Bournemouth secured a 1-2 away win. The model had picked a home win with a 36% probability, but that call was wrong. The final score of 1-2 matched the actual result of an away victory. The model’s other selections proved mixed: Under 5.5 cards hit at 79.6%, Under 25.5 fouls missed at 75.4%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 75.2%, Over 1.5 hit at 74.1%, Under 3.5 hit at 74.1%, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 71.9%, and Over 8.5 corners hit at 70.7%. The game saw Everton’s recent form dip after a draw, while Bournemouth also came off a draw, both ending their streaks with this upset.