Everton and Manchester United face a finely balanced clash, with the model favouring an away win. The odds are 32% for a home victory, 28% for a draw and 40% for a United triumph. The expected total is 2.7 goals, centring on a 2-goal outcome that carries a 26% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.3% probability.
Everton, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Manchester United, on the road versus a weaker opponent, averages 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Under 6.5 (97.8% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.7% with a 6% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.7% with a 5% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.6% with a 7% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.1% with a 5% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (95.8% with a 2% edge) and Away under 3.5 goals (94.1% with a 3% edge).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Everton win
33.3%
Avg Implied 28.9% · @ 3.27
Edge
+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.44
Unibet
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Marathonbet
3.38
Pinnacle
3.35
Draw
28.1%
Avg Implied 26.8% · @ 3.53
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.66
Pinnacle
3.65
Betfair
3.60
Marathonbet
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Manchester United win
38.6%
Avg Implied 44.2% · @ 2.14
Edge
-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.18
Dafabet
2.18
Pinnacle
2.17
SBO
2.16
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Everton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.30
1.47
1.53
1.33
1.07
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
1.38
1.40
1.40
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (21)
1.43
1.33
1.50
1.60
1.36
1.09
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Manchester United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.27
2.12
1.38
1.57
1.14
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.95
1.32
2.33
1.50
1.50
1.10
vs Weaker (7)
1.57
1.29
1.33
1.33
1.75
1.25
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Everton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.8%
@ 1.21-0.8%
Under 1.5
23.2%
@ 4.18+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.25
Betano
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Under
Bet365
4.50
Unibet
4.50
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
10Bet
4.20
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.2%
@ 1.70-4.8%
Under 2.5
48.8%
@ 2.16+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Under
1xBet
2.25
Pinnacle
2.24
Betano
2.20
SBO
2.19
Marathonbet
2.18
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.1%
@ 2.66-6.2%
Under 3.5
70.9%
@ 1.45+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.80
Pinnacle
2.73
10Bet
2.70
Betano
2.70
Unibet
2.70
Under
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.48
Unibet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
Both teams to score
Yes
56.5%
@ 1.55-3.4%
No
43.5%
@ 2.32+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
William Hil
1.57
Marathonbet
1.55
No
Betfair
2.45
Unibet
2.35
Betano
2.32
1xBet
2.32
William Hil
2.30
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%@ 6.55+6.2%
1-2
8.6%@ 8.31+3.0%
0-1
8.1%@ 9.12+3.0%
2-1
7.9%@ 10.46+3.5%
0-0
7.8%@ 12.64+4.1%
1-0
7.3%@ 11.65+3.3%
0-2
6.6%@ 11.37+2.5%
2-2
5.6%@ 11.28+1.5%
Everton goals ↓
Manchester United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.8%
8.1%
6.6%
3.1%
1.1%
1
7.3%
13%
8.6%
4.1%
1.4%
2
5.6%
7.9%
5.6%
2.7%
0.9%
3
2.4%
3.4%
2.4%
1.2%
0.4%
4
0.8%
1.1%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Everton goals (down), columns = Manchester United goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brighton
1.39
Brentford
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Everton
1.29
Newcastle
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Ipswich
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
Hull
0.98
Coventry
0.97
Everton is 0.58 points worse than Manchester United in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 1.87).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Tottenham
1.26
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
Ipswich
1.19
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Hull
0.99
Coventry
0.98
Everton is 0.58 goals worse than Manchester United in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.82).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Everton
1.32
Manchester United
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
Ipswich
1.58
Hull
1.91
Coventry
1.93
Everton and Manchester United are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.32).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
Everton is 8.2 percentage points worse than Manchester United in terms of average possession (44% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Everton
For 4.4 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 9.0 · Total 19.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Manchester United
For 6.2 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 10.7 · Total 20.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Everton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
8.8
9.8
3.5
3.9
3.2
21.6
21.6
21.6
vs Stronger (14)
10.4
9.9
11.0
3.0
4.0
2.0
20.5
18.0
23.0
vs Similar (34)
9.0
8.6
9.4
4.0
4.1
3.9
22.6
23.4
21.8
vs Weaker (2)
7.0
6.0
8.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
12.0
15.0
9.0
% over line
40%
28%
52%
48%
56%
40%
56%
52%
60%
% under line
60%
72%
48%
52%
44%
60%
44%
48%
40%
This opponent (Manchester United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Manchester United
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.4
9.7
4.1
4.5
3.7
21.5
21.1
21.8
vs Stronger (2)
6.5
7.0
6.0
2.5
5.0
0.0
18.5
21.0
16.0
vs Similar (38)
9.6
9.4
9.8
4.3
4.7
4.0
22.0
21.6
22.5
vs Weaker (10)
10.1
10.0
10.2
3.5
3.5
3.5
19.9
18.8
20.7
% over line
50%
50%
50%
62%
75%
50%
48%
46%
50%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
38%
25%
50%
52%
54%
50%
This opponent (Everton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.1
Bournemouth
10.7
Fulham
10.5
Hull
10.3
Manchester City
10.3
Liverpool
10.2
Tottenham
10.1
Chelsea
10.0
Ipswich
10.0
Brentford
9.9
Brighton
9.7
Nottingham Forest
9.7
Manchester United
9.6
Coventry
9.6
Leeds
9.5
Everton
9.3
Aston Villa
9.3
Sunderland
9.1
Arsenal
9.0
Crystal Palace
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bournemouth
4.5
Tottenham
4.5
Chelsea
4.4
Newcastle
4.3
Ipswich
4.3
Hull
4.2
Sunderland
4.1
Manchester United
4.1
Brighton
4.0
Aston Villa
3.8
Coventry
3.7
Everton
3.7
Manchester City
3.7
Crystal Palace
3.7
Brentford
3.7
Liverpool
3.6
Fulham
3.6
Arsenal
3.5
Leeds
3.5
Nottingham Forest
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ipswich
23.9
Aston Villa
23.6
Nottingham Forest
23.4
Bournemouth
23.2
Tottenham
22.9
Chelsea
22.7
Sunderland
22.7
Leeds
22.1
Brighton
22.1
Arsenal
22.1
Newcastle
21.8
Everton
21.6
Manchester United
21.5
Liverpool
21.4
Coventry
21.4
Crystal Palace
21.3
Hull
21.1
Manchester City
21.0
Fulham
20.0
Brentford
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
46.5%
@ 1.73-7.4%
Under 9.5
53.5%
@ 2.02+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
Marathonbet
1.73
10Bet
1.70
Under
Unibet
2.18
10Bet
2.05
1xBet
2.04
Pinnacle
2.04
Marathonbet
1.99
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
47.2%
@ 1.63-10.3%
Under 3.5
52.8%
@ 2.20+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.71
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.57
Under
Pinnacle
2.36
Betano
2.25
Unibet
1.98
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
47.5%
@ 1.93-1.1%
Under 21.5
52.5%
@ 1.82+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.93
Under
Betano
1.82
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Everton or Draw
61.4%
Avg Implied 55.4% · @ 1.70
Edge
+6.0%
33%
28%
39%
covers Everton + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
Unibet
1.71
10Bet
1.70
Everton or Manchester United
71.9%
Avg Implied 73.7% · @ 1.28
Edge
-1.7%
33%
28%
39%
covers Everton + Manchester United
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
William Hil
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Betano
1.28
Draw or Manchester United
66.7%
Avg Implied 70.9% · @ 1.33
Edge
-4.2%
33%
28%
39%
covers Draw + Manchester United
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Everton over/under 0.5
Over
72.9%
@ 1.30+1.0%
Under
27.1%
@ 3.31-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.31
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.58
Bet365
3.40
BetVictor
3.30
1xBet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.30
Everton over/under 1.5
Over
37.5%
@ 2.46-0.6%
Under
62.5%
@ 1.51+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.56
Bet365
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Marathonbet
2.49
10Bet
2.45
Under
1xBet
1.54
Pinnacle
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
Betano
1.52
Unibet
1.50
Everton over/under 2.5
Over
14.4%
@ 5.81-1.7%
Under
85.6%
@ 1.11+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.10
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.95
10Bet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Everton over/under 3.5
Over
4.4%
@ 13.62-2.6%
Under
95.6%
@ 1.02+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Manchester United over/under 0.5
Over
75.8%
@ 1.19-2.8%
Under
24.2%
@ 4.37+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Under
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
4.50
Unibet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
1xBet
4.40
Manchester United over/under 1.5
Over
41.5%
@ 1.89-8.0%
Under
58.5%
@ 1.85+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathonbet
1.92
Betfair
1.91
10Bet
1.90
BetVictor
1.90
Under
1xBet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathonbet
1.89
Unibet
1.86
Betano
1.85
Manchester United over/under 2.5
Over
17.1%
@ 3.81-7.4%
Under
82.9%
@ 1.24+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.00
Pinnacle
3.92
1xBet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.84
BetVictor
3.80
Under
Pinnacle
1.26
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
Manchester United over/under 3.5
Over
5.6%
@ 8.77-5.1%
Under
94.4%
@ 1.05+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
1xBet
9.30
Marathonbet
8.60
Unibet
8.00
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Everton, so a minus line means Everton give that many goals of a start and Manchester United receive them. At -1, Everton must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Everton win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Everton)
Everton -2
5.3%
@ 15.25-0.7%
Draw -2
9.9%
@ 9.25+0.1%
Manchester United +2
84.8%
@ 1.08+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
17.00
Unibet
14.00
10Bet
13.00
Draw
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
10.00
Unibet
9.00
10Bet
8.00
Away
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Handicap -1 (Everton)
Everton -1
15.2%
@ 6.69+1.7%
Draw -1
18.1%
@ 5.03+0.1%
Manchester United +1
66.7%
@ 1.32-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
6.75
Marathonbet
6.45
10Bet
6.25
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.10
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Away
Marathonbet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Betfair
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Handicap +1 (Everton)
Everton +1
61.4%
@ 1.71+8.4%
Draw +1
19.8%
@ 3.88-3.4%
Manchester United -1
18.8%
@ 3.81-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.74
Betfair
1.73
10Bet
1.70
Unibet
1.70
Bet365
1.67
Draw
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
10Bet
3.75
Unibet
3.75
Away
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.68
Unibet
3.60
Handicap +2 (Everton)
Everton +2
81.2%
@ 1.22+7.4%
Draw +2
11.8%
@ 5.91-3.4%
Manchester United -2
7.0%
@ 8.18-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Betfair
1.17
Draw
Marathonbet
6.20
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Unibet
5.60
Away
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
9.00
10Bet
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.40
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Everton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.57
0.53
0.60
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
0.62
0.20
0.60
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.57
0.70
0.60
0.45
0.55
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Manchester United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.53
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.45
0.83
0.50
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
0.86
0.67
0.67
0.25
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Everton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.1%
@ 1.33-0.6%
Under 0.5
29.9%
@ 3.21+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Pinnacle
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
BetVictor
1.33
Under
Bet365
3.40
Unibet
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.26
BetVictor
3.25
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.6%
@ 2.49-3.9%
Under 1.5
66.4%
@ 1.50+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.67
Betano
2.57
Marathonbet
2.52
1xBet
2.52
Bet365
2.50
Under
Unibet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.52
1xBet
1.52
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.0%
@ 5.99-2.5%
Under 2.5
87.0%
@ 1.10+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Betfair
6.50
William Hil
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.90
Under
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Everton over/under 0.5 HT
Over
43.1%
@ 2.13-0.5%
Under
56.9%
@ 1.65+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.24
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.12
10Bet
2.10
Under
10Bet
1.67
Unibet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.65
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Everton over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.7%
@ 6.80+0.1%
Under
86.3%
@ 1.07-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.30
Marathonbet
7.30
10Bet
6.50
Unibet
6.50
Betano
6.40
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Unibet
1.06
Everton over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.9%
@ 12.50-5.6%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Manchester United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
42.3%
@ 1.82-8.9%
Under
57.7%
@ 1.91+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.89
10Bet
1.83
Betano
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
1xBet
1.81
Under
Unibet
1.95
Betano
1.91
10Bet
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathonbet
1.89
Manchester United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.3%
@ 4.98-6.2%
Under
87.7%
@ 1.13+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.20
1xBet
5.20
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.80
Unibet
4.70
Under
Betano
1.16
Unibet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Manchester United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.3%
@ 10.50-6.7%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.03+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Everton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.73
0.93
0.93
0.93
0.53
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
0.75
1.20
0.80
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.76
0.80
1.00
0.91
0.55
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Manchester United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.73
1.38
0.88
1.07
0.57
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.23
0.86
1.50
1.00
0.90
0.70
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.43
0.67
0.67
1.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Everton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.5%
@ 1.18-1.7%
Under 0.5
22.5%
@ 4.50+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Under
Marathonbet
4.70
1xBet
4.70
Betano
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
43.2%
@ 1.86-6.9%
Under 1.5
56.8%
@ 1.87+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.91
Unibet
1.87
Betano
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Under
Marathonbet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
Betano
1.91
William Hil
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.1%
@ 3.67-8.3%
Under 2.5
82.9%
@ 1.25+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.80
Unibet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.66
Marathonbet
3.66
Under
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Everton over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.0%
@ 1.77-1.5%
Under
49.0%
@ 1.96+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Under
Betano
2.00
Marathonbet
1.94
1xBet
1.93
Everton over/under 1.5 2H
Over
19.3%
@ 4.84+0.1%
Under
80.7%
@ 1.15-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.05
1xBet
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Betano
4.55
Under
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
Everton over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.0%
@ 10.25-5.1%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.03+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Manchester United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.8%
@ 1.60-6.6%
Under
48.2%
@ 2.25+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.54
Betano
1.53
Under
Betano
2.40
1xBet
2.35
Marathonbet
1.99
Manchester United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.0%
@ 3.51-12.4%
Under
86.0%
@ 1.26+12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.55
10Bet
3.55
1xBet
3.50
Betano
3.45
Under
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Manchester United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.6%
@ 7.90-7.2%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.06+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.06
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.6%
Under 6.5
97.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+3.5%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+6.7%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.0%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.1%
Home under 3.5 goals
95.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+2.6%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.4%
1.06
Betano
1.06
-
-
-
-
+7.2%
Away under 3.5 goals
94.4%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
+5.1%
Under 5.5
94.1%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.04
BetVictor
1.03
Betfair
1.03
+4.1%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.7%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Unibet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
+6.2%
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.0%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
+2.5%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.3%
1.07
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Unibet
1.06
-0.1%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.0%
1.26
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-
+12.4%
Under 4.5
85.9%
1.15
Betano
1.19
Unibet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
BetVictor
1.14
+4.9%
Home under 2.5 goals
85.6%
1.11
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
+1.7%
Under 5.5 cards
85.2%
1.34
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
-
+15.4%
Away +2 handicap
84.8%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
-
+0.6%
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.9%
1.25
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
+8.3%
Away under 2.5 goals
82.9%
1.24
Pinnacle
1.26
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
+7.4%
Under 25.5 fouls
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
81.2%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Betfair
1.17
+7.4%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.7%
1.15
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
-
-0.1%
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.5%
1.18
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
-1.7%
Over 1.5
76.8%
1.21
Pinnacle
1.25
Betano
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.20
-0.8%
Under 11.5 corners
76.3%
1.37
Unibet
1.47
1xBet
1.38
Betano
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
-
+9.3%
Away over 0.5 goals
75.8%
1.19
Marathonbet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
-2.8%
Home over 0.5 goals
72.9%
1.30
1xBet
1.31
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
+1.0%
Home or Away
71.9%
1.28
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
William Hil
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Betano
1.28
-1.7%
Under 4.5 cards
71.8%
1.62
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.62
Unibet
1.48
+14.1%
Under 3.5
70.9%
1.45
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.48
Unibet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
+6.2%
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.1%
1.33
Betano
1.37
Pinnacle
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
BetVictor
1.33
-0.6%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Everton
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Thierno Barry67%
James Tarkowski33%
Brennan Johnson33%
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall33%
James Garner0%
Vitaliy Mykolenko0%
Jordan Pickford0%
Iliman Ndiaye0%
Carlos Alcaraz0%
Merlin Röhl0%
Tyrique George0%
Harrison Armstrong0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
James Garner33%
Carlos Alcaraz33%
Vitaliy Mykolenko0%
Jordan Pickford0%
James Tarkowski0%
Iliman Ndiaye0%
Brennan Johnson0%
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall0%
Merlin Röhl0%
Tyrique George0%
Thierno Barry0%
Harrison Armstrong0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vitaliy Mykolenko33%
Iliman Ndiaye33%
Brennan Johnson33%
Thierno Barry33%
Harrison Armstrong33%
James Garner0%
Jordan Pickford0%
James Tarkowski0%
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall0%
Carlos Alcaraz0%
Merlin Röhl0%
Tyrique George0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Thierno Barry67%
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall33%
James Garner0%
Vitaliy Mykolenko0%
Jordan Pickford0%
James Tarkowski0%
Iliman Ndiaye0%
Brennan Johnson0%
Carlos Alcaraz0%
Merlin Röhl0%
Tyrique George0%
Harrison Armstrong0%
Manchester United · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Benjamin Šeško34%
Bryan Mbeumo32%
Matheus Cunha29%
Casemiro26%
Bruno Fernandes22%
Patrick Dorgu14%
Mason Mount12%
Harry Maguire8%
Joshua Zirkzee8%
Matthijs de Ligt7%
Amad Diallo6%
Kobbie Mainoo3%
Diogo Dalot3%
Luke Shaw3%
Noussair Mazraoui0%
Lisandro Martínez0%
Tyrell Malacia0%
Altay Bayındır0%
Manuel Ugarte0%
Senne Lammens0%
Leny Yoro0%
Jack Fletcher0%
Ayden Heaven0%
Shea Lacey0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Casemiro29%
Shea Lacey25%
Luke Shaw24%
Patrick Dorgu18%
Harry Maguire16%
Joshua Zirkzee15%
Noussair Mazraoui15%
Diogo Dalot14%
Bruno Fernandes14%
Bryan Mbeumo12%
Matheus Cunha11%
Ayden Heaven11%
Kobbie Mainoo10%
Mason Mount8%
Benjamin Šeško6%
Amad Diallo6%
Manuel Ugarte4%
Leny Yoro3%
Matthijs de Ligt0%
Lisandro Martínez0%
Tyrell Malacia0%
Altay Bayındır0%
Senne Lammens0%
Jack Fletcher0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bruno Fernandes51%
Patrick Dorgu14%
Kobbie Mainoo10%
Amad Diallo9%
Bryan Mbeumo9%
Diogo Dalot8%
Harry Maguire8%
Casemiro6%
Matheus Cunha6%
Ayden Heaven6%
Mason Mount4%
Joshua Zirkzee4%
Benjamin Šeško3%
Luke Shaw3%
Matthijs de Ligt0%
Noussair Mazraoui0%
Lisandro Martínez0%
Tyrell Malacia0%
Altay Bayındır0%
Manuel Ugarte0%
Senne Lammens0%
Leny Yoro0%
Jack Fletcher0%
Shea Lacey0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Bryan Mbeumo32%
Matheus Cunha31%
Benjamin Šeško25%
Bruno Fernandes22%
Amad Diallo15%
Casemiro14%
Joshua Zirkzee8%
Patrick Dorgu7%
Matthijs de Ligt0%
Noussair Mazraoui0%
Diogo Dalot0%
Luke Shaw0%
Lisandro Martínez0%
Harry Maguire0%
Mason Mount0%
Tyrell Malacia0%
Altay Bayındır0%
Manuel Ugarte0%
Senne Lammens0%
Kobbie Mainoo0%
Leny Yoro0%
Jack Fletcher0%
Ayden Heaven0%
Shea Lacey0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
COV (27)
€237m
HUL (27)
€105m
Everton's squad is €470m less valuable than Manchester United's (€459m vs €929m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
HUL (7)
€22m
Everton's attack is €258m less valuable than Manchester United's (€174m vs €432m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
IPS (7)
€66m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
HUL (8)
€31m
FUL (3)
€28m
Everton's midfield is €74m less valuable than Manchester United's (€162m vs €236m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
HUL (12)
€52m
Everton's defence is €138m less valuable than Manchester United's (€123m vs €261m).
England: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Manchester City
Arsenal
Hull
Chelsea
Brentford
Newcastle
Leeds
Brighton
Sunderland
Ipswich
Liverpool
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth
Fulham
Coventry
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa
Tottenham