Everton vs West Ham Result & Analysis

The match sits on a knife-edge, with the model favouring an away win. Home win stands at 34%, a draw at 29%, and an away win at 37%. The expected total is 2.6 goals, with the most likely total of two goals carrying a 27% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 13.9% probability, even though the final result will be a 1-3 away victory. Everton, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, averages 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded. West Ham, on the road against a comparable side, averages 1.36 goals scored and 2.27 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 90.3%, Over 19.5 fouls at 83.6%, Under 4.5 cards at 79.3%, Under 3.5 at 74.4%, Over 1.5 at 73.8%, Under 11.5 corners at 73.3%, and Over 21.5 fouls at 70.9%. Each pick carries its own probability, with no other outcomes tied to a win.

The match finished 1-3 in favour of West Ham, confirming the model’s pre-match pick of an away win at 37%. The final score matched the actual result, so the favourite was correct. Everton entered the game coming off a draw, while West Ham also had a recent draw, keeping the narrative balanced. The model’s suggested picks performed unevenly: Under 5.5 cards hit, as did Under 4.5 cards, Under 11.5 corners, and Over 1.5, all with probabilities of 90.3%, 79.3%, 73.3% and 73.8% respectively. However, Over 19.5 fouls, Under 3.5 and Over 21.5 fouls missed, with chances of 83.6%, 74.4% and 70.9%. The overall assessment shows the model’s call was right, but its ancillary selections had mixed success.