Eyüpspor are tipped to win this encounter, with a 42% chance of victory, a 28% chance of a draw and a 31% chance for Rizespor to come away with the win. The model sees a 2-goal total as most likely, with a 13% probability that the score will finish 1-1. The home side averages 1.5 goals scored and 0.92 conceded against teams of similar strength, while Rizespor, playing away, averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. The expected total goals for the match is 2.8. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 93%, Over 21.5 fouls at 85.4%, Over 2.5 cards at 85.1%, Under 11.5 corners at 80.1%, Over 1.5 goals at 77.5%, Over 23.5 fouls at 74% and Under 10.5 corners at 70.3%. The home side’s recent form shows a string of two straight defeats before a win, while Rizespor has come off a loss. The match is expected to be a tight affair, but Eyüpspor’s home advantage and the model’s strong home win probability make them the clear favourite.
Results analysis
The match finished 4-0 in favour of Eyüpspor, extending their run after two straight defeats. The model had picked a home win with a 42% probability, and the call proved correct. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 was missed, but the team still dominated. The suggested selections saw mixed results: Over 19.5 fouls (93%) missed, Over 21.5 fouls (85.4%) missed, Under 11.5 corners (80.1%) hit, Over 1.5 (77.5%) hit, Over 23.5 fouls (74.0%) missed, and Under 10.5 corners (70.3%) hit. Overall, the model’s predictions were largely accurate, with the home win and key over/under picks performing as expected.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Eyüpspor win✓ Hit
41.6%
Avg Implied 43.0% · @ 2.13
Edge
-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied 26.6% · @ 3.44
Edge
+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rizespor win✗ Miss
30.7%
Avg Implied 30.3% · @ 3.02
Edge
+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Eyüpspor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.40
1.33
1.13
0.87
1.67
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
2.60
0.67
2.00
0.50
3.50
vs Similar (25)
1.20
1.16
1.50
0.92
0.92
1.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Rizespor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rizespor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.43
2.07
1.20
1.27
1.67
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
2.25
0.67
2.67
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.95
1.14
2.42
0.83
1.40
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Eyüpspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.5%
Under 1.5
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.2%
@ 1.78+0.1%
Under 2.5
47.8%
@ 1.94-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.0%
Under 3.5
70.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.9%
No
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
2-1
9.0%
1-0
8.3%
1-2
7.5%
0-0
7.5%
2-0
7.1%
0-1
6.8%
2-2
5.7%
Eyüpspor goals ↓
Rizespor goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
6.8%
5.0%
2.1%
0.7%
1
8.3%
13%
7.5%
3.2%
1.0%
2
7.1%
9.0%
5.7%
2.4%
0.8%
3
3.6%
4.5%
2.8%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.3%
1.7%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Eyüpspor goals (down), columns = Rizespor goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Galatasaray
2.26
Fenerbahçe
2.18
Trabzonspor
2.03
Beşiktaş
1.76
Başakşehir
1.68
Göztepe
1.62
Samsunspor
1.50
Rizespor
1.21
Konyaspor
1.18
Kocaelispor
1.09
Alanyaspor
1.09
Gaziantep FK
1.09
Kasımpaşa
1.03
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.00
Eyüpspor
0.97
Antalyaspor
0.94
Kayserispor
0.88
Fatih Karagümrük
0.88
Eyüpspor is 0.24 points worse than Rizespor in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Galatasaray
2.26
Fenerbahçe
2.26
Trabzonspor
1.79
Beşiktaş
1.74
Başakşehir
1.71
Rizespor
1.35
Samsunspor
1.35
Konyaspor
1.26
Gaziantep FK
1.26
Göztepe
1.24
Alanyaspor
1.21
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.06
Eyüpspor
0.97
Antalyaspor
0.97
Kasımpaşa
0.97
Fatih Karagümrük
0.91
Kayserispor
0.79
Kocaelispor
0.76
Eyüpspor is 0.38 goals worse than Rizespor in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 1.35).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Galatasaray
0.88
Göztepe
0.94
Başakşehir
1.03
Fenerbahçe
1.09
Kocaelispor
1.12
Trabzonspor
1.15
Beşiktaş
1.18
Alanyaspor
1.21
Samsunspor
1.32
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.38
Eyüpspor
1.41
Kasımpaşa
1.44
Konyaspor
1.47
Rizespor
1.53
Fatih Karagümrük
1.59
Antalyaspor
1.62
Gaziantep FK
1.71
Kayserispor
1.82
Eyüpspor is 0.12 goals better than Rizespor in terms of goals conceded per game (1.41 vs 1.53).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Galatasaray
62%
Fenerbahçe
59%
Beşiktaş
56%
Trabzonspor
55%
Başakşehir
54%
Samsunspor
54%
Konyaspor
52%
Rizespor
50%
Gaziantep FK
50%
Kocaelispor
50%
Alanyaspor
48%
Eyüpspor
48%
Kayserispor
47%
Fatih Karagümrük
45%
Antalyaspor
45%
Kasımpaşa
44%
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
43%
Göztepe
38%
Eyüpspor is 1.9 percentage points worse than Rizespor in terms of average possession (48% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Eyüpspor
For 3.1 · Against 5.4 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.4 · Against 2.1 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 16.5 · Total 29.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rizespor
For 4.0 · Against 4.6 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 15.9 · Total 30.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Eyüpspor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
8.8
9.5
4.2
3.7
4.7
26.5
25.7
27.3
vs Stronger (9)
10.2
8.6
12.2
3.8
3.8
3.8
25.1
25.6
24.5
vs Similar (39)
8.8
8.6
9.1
4.2
3.6
4.7
27.2
26.2
28.1
vs Weaker (2)
9.5
12.0
7.0
6.5
5.0
8.0
21.0
18.0
24.0
% over line
36%
32%
41%
58%
50%
67%
77%
77%
77%
% under line
64%
68%
59%
42%
50%
33%
23%
23%
23%
This opponent (Rizespor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rizespor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.7
9.0
3.7
3.5
4.0
26.6
27.0
26.3
vs Stronger (12)
9.6
9.2
9.9
4.2
3.8
4.5
23.5
24.8
22.7
vs Similar (37)
9.0
9.4
8.5
3.6
3.5
3.8
28.0
28.0
28.1
vs Weaker (1)
15.0
15.0
-
2.0
2.0
-
17.0
17.0
-
% over line
52%
57%
48%
48%
42%
54%
84%
87%
81%
% under line
48%
43%
52%
52%
58%
46%
16%
13%
19%
This opponent (Eyüpspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Fenerbahçe
10.9
Beşiktaş
10.1
Kayserispor
10.1
Samsunspor
10.1
Konyaspor
9.8
Gaziantep FK
9.7
Başakşehir
9.7
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
9.7
Rizespor
9.4
Trabzonspor
9.3
Kasımpaşa
9.3
Antalyaspor
9.2
Eyüpspor
9.2
Göztepe
9.1
Galatasaray
9.0
Fatih Karagümrük
8.9
Alanyaspor
8.1
Kocaelispor
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Gaziantep FK
6.0
Fenerbahçe
5.9
Konyaspor
5.4
Alanyaspor
5.3
Antalyaspor
5.0
Kasımpaşa
5.0
Göztepe
5.0
Beşiktaş
4.9
Başakşehir
4.9
Eyüpspor
4.9
Rizespor
4.8
Kocaelispor
4.8
Samsunspor
4.7
Kayserispor
4.7
Trabzonspor
4.7
Fatih Karagümrük
4.6
Galatasaray
4.6
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
4.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Gaziantep FK
28.9
Fatih Karagümrük
28.9
Kasımpaşa
27.6
Alanyaspor
27.0
Antalyaspor
27.0
Rizespor
27.0
Başakşehir
26.7
Kocaelispor
26.7
Göztepe
26.4
Trabzonspor
26.1
Eyüpspor
26.0
Fenerbahçe
25.8
Samsunspor
25.7
Konyaspor
25.3
Kayserispor
25.3
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
25.2
Beşiktaş
25.1
Galatasaray
23.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
41.5%
Under 9.5
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
69.6%
Under 3.5
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
85.4%
Under 21.5
14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Eyüpspor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.60
0.40
0.47
0.40
0.73
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
1.20
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (25)
0.48
0.48
0.50
0.33
0.46
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Rizespor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rizespor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.53
0.93
0.33
0.40
0.73
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.62
0.67
0.33
0.20
0.80
vs Similar (22)
0.77
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.50
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Eyüpspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Eyüpspor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eyüpspor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eyüpspor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rizespor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rizespor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rizespor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Eyüpspor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.80
0.93
0.67
0.47
0.93
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.40
0.67
1.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.68
1.00
0.58
0.46
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Rizespor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rizespor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.90
1.13
0.87
0.87
0.93
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.62
0.00
2.33
0.80
1.20
vs Similar (22)
1.18
0.64
1.42
0.50
0.90
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Eyüpspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Eyüpspor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eyüpspor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eyüpspor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rizespor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rizespor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rizespor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (23)
€260m
TRA (29)
€116m
GÖZ (28)
€80m
BAŞ (30)
€75m
SAM (26)
€56m
RIZ (45)
€49m
ALA (31)
€42m
KON (32)
€37m
EYÜ (35)
€36m
GF (30)
€30m
KAY (34)
€27m
ANT (29)
€22m
FK (32)
€21m
KOC (24)
€21m
Eyüpspor's squad is €13m less valuable than Rizespor's (€36m vs €49m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (9)
€151m
TRA (11)
€48m
GÖZ (12)
€42m
BAŞ (10)
€36m
SAM (9)
€30m
RIZ (17)
€18m
ALA (12)
€15m
GF (12)
€15m
KON (10)
€15m
KAY (13)
€12m
FK (13)
€11m
EYÜ (14)
€10m
ANT (11)
€9m
KOC (10)
€7m
Eyüpspor's attack is €7m less valuable than Rizespor's (€10m vs €18m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (4)
€43m
GÖZ (5)
€24m
TRA (8)
€23m
ALA (9)
€15m
BAŞ (6)
€13m
RIZ (9)
€10m
KON (8)
€8m
KOC (6)
€8m
SAM (5)
€8m
EYÜ (8)
€7m
GF (5)
€6m
KAY (7)
€5m
ANT (5)
€5m
FK (6)
€4m
Eyüpspor's midfield is €3m less valuable than Rizespor's (€7m vs €10m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (10)
€66m
TRA (10)
€45m
BAŞ (14)
€26m
RIZ (19)
€21m
SAM (12)
€19m
EYÜ (13)
€18m
GÖZ (11)
€15m
KON (14)
€14m
ALA (10)
€11m
KAY (14)
€9m
GF (13)
€9m
ANT (13)
€8m
FK (13)
€6m
KOC (8)
€6m
Eyüpspor's defence is €2m less valuable than Rizespor's (€18m vs €21m).
Turkey: Süper Lig 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Turkey: Süper Lig stats & trends →
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Galatasaray
Fenerbahçe
Trabzonspor
Beşiktaş
Başakşehir
Göztepe
Samsunspor
Konyaspor
Alanyaspor
Kocaelispor
Gaziantep FK
Kasımpaşa
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Antalyaspor
Fatih Karagümrük
Kayserispor