Defensive solidity will be the theme of this Cup clash, as both sides have shown a tendency to keep scores low. The model favours an away win, with a 38% chance, followed by a draw at 33% and a home win at 29%. The expected total is 2.0 goals, and the most likely exact score is 0-0, with a 14.8% probability. Dynamo, playing away against a weaker opponent, averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded, while Fakel’s home form remains unreported but the recent 0-1 loss to Zenit suggests caution. The suggested selections are: Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.6%), Under 5.5 (98.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.5%), Under 4.5 (94.7%), Home under 2.5 goals (93.5%), and Away under 2.5 goals (90.1%). These picks highlight the expectation of a tight, low-scoring affair.
Results analysis
The match saw Dynamo extend their two-game winning run, while Fakel came off a defeat. The model’s favourite, an Away win, proved correct as Dynamo edged 0-1. The pre-match probability for the favourite was 38%. The model’s selections all hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.9%, Under 6.5 at 99.5%, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.6%, Under 5.5 at 98.3%, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.5%, Under 4.5 at 94.7%, Home under 2.5 goals at 93.5% and Away under 2.5 goals at 90.1%. The final score of 0-1 matched the predicted most likely total of two goals, confirming the model’s accuracy.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fakel win✗ Miss
28.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
33.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dynamo win✓ Hit
38.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Fakel
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.90
1.44
0.81
1.36
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
3.00
-
-
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (29)
1.38
0.83
1.44
0.81
1.31
0.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Dynamo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dynamo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.17
2.00
1.33
1.27
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.75
0.50
2.00
2.00
1.50
vs Similar (15)
1.33
1.07
2.00
1.80
1.00
0.70
vs Weaker (11)
2.18
1.09
2.38
0.88
1.67
1.67
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Fakel) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
61.0%
Under 1.5
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
32.6%
Under 2.5
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
14.4%
Under 3.5
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
41.2%
No
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
14.8%
1-1
14.8%
0-1 ✓
13.4%
1-0
10.9%
0-2
8.1%
1-2
7.4%
2-1
6.1%
2-0
5.6%
Fakel goals ↓
Dynamo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
13%
8.1%
2.9%
0.8%
1
11%
15%
7.4%
2.7%
0.7%
2
5.6%
6.1%
3.4%
1.2%
0.3%
3
1.7%
1.9%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fakel goals (down), columns = Dynamo goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zenit
2.55
Volgar Astrakhan
2.33
Irkutsk
2.25
Broke Boys
2.25
Cherepovets
2.25
Kristall MEZ
2.25
Veles
2.25
Spartak Moscow
2.08
KDV
2.00
Dinamo Vologda
2.00
Luki-Energiya
2.00
Astrakhan
2.00
Tyumen
2.00
Rodina Moskva
2.00
Enisey
2.00
Arsenal Tula
2.00
Shinnik Yaroslavl
2.00
FC Krasnodar
1.92
CSKA Moscow
1.75
Torpedo Moskva
1.75
Lokomotiv
1.70
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.70
Chelyabinsk
1.67
Dynamo
1.58
Zenit Penza
1.50
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.50
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.50
FK Spartak Tambov
1.50
Salyut-Belgorod
1.50
Chayka
1.50
2Drots
1.50
Ilpar
1.50
Znamya Noginsk
1.50
FK Sokol Saratov
1.50
KAMAZ
1.50
Ural
1.50
Fakel
1.33
FC Rostov
1.25
Krylia Sovetov
1.10
FC 10
1.04
Metallurg Asha
1.04
Chita
1.04
Izberbash
1.04
Iskra Smolensk
1.04
Bomik
1.04
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
1.04
FC Tosno
1.04
SKA Rostov
1.04
Izhevsk
1.04
Kirovets Voskhozhdenie
1.04
Anzhi
1.04
Spartak Nalchik
1.00
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.00
Dinamo Bryansk
1.00
Irtysh Omsk
1.00
Tver
1.00
Torpedo Miass
1.00
Nart Cherkessk
1.00
Dinamo Kirov
1.00
Amkar
1.00
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.00
Druzhba
1.00
Tekstilshchik
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
Spartak Kostroma
1.00
Angust Nazran
1.00
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.00
Baltika
0.88
Rubin
0.86
FC Orenburg
0.78
FK Neftekhimik
0.75
Temp Barnaul
0.67
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
0.67
Akron
0.67
Akhmat
0.67
Dinamo Stavropol
0.50
Saturn Ramenskoye
0.50
Mashuk-KMV
0.50
Nizhny Novgorod
0.50
FC Sochi
0.33
Murom
0.00
Avangard Kursk
0.00
Chertanovo Moscow
0.00
Dinamo Barnaul
0.00
Kvant
0.00
Shumbrat
0.00
Kristall
0.00
Pobeda
0.00
Anri Vladivostok
0.00
Dinamo St. Petersburg
0.00
Orel
0.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
0.00
Novosibirsk
0.00
Torpedo Vladimir
0.00
Nosta
0.00
Kaluga
0.00
Ryazan
0.00
Ska-khabarovsk
0.00
Leningradets
0.00
Rotor Volgograd
0.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
0.00
Strogino
0.00
Fakel is 0.25 points worse than Dynamo in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.58).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Irkutsk
3.75
Zvezda St. Petersburg
2.50
Cherepovets
2.50
Tyumen
2.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
2.50
KDV
2.33
Luki-Energiya
2.33
Zenit
2.09
FC Krasnodar
2.08
Murom
2.00
Orel
2.00
Salyut-Belgorod
2.00
Astrakhan
2.00
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
2.00
Kristall MEZ
2.00
Nosta
2.00
Ilpar
2.00
Veles
2.00
Volga Ulyanovsk
2.00
Spartak Moscow
1.85
Broke Boys
1.75
Torpedo Moskva
1.75
Lokomotiv
1.70
Arsenal Tula
1.60
Dynamo
1.58
CSKA Moscow
1.58
Znamya Noginsk
1.50
Rodina Moskva
1.50
Enisey
1.50
Krylia Sovetov
1.40
FC Rostov
1.38
Volgar Astrakhan
1.33
Akhmat
1.33
Fakel
1.33
FC Sochi
1.33
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.30
FC 10
1.10
Metallurg Asha
1.10
Chita
1.10
Izberbash
1.10
Iskra Smolensk
1.10
Bomik
1.10
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
1.10
FC Tosno
1.10
SKA Rostov
1.10
Izhevsk
1.10
Kirovets Voskhozhdenie
1.10
Anzhi
1.10
Dinamo Stavropol
1.00
Avangard Kursk
1.00
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.00
Chertanovo Moscow
1.00
Dinamo Barnaul
1.00
Kvant
1.00
Shumbrat
1.00
Kristall
1.00
Dinamo Vologda
1.00
FK Spartak Tambov
1.00
Dinamo Kirov
1.00
Amkar
1.00
Chayka
1.00
Akron
1.00
Druzhba
1.00
FK Sokol Saratov
1.00
Baltika
1.00
KAMAZ
1.00
Chelyabinsk
1.00
FK Neftekhimik
1.00
Ural
1.00
Rotor Volgograd
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
Angust Nazran
1.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.00
FC Orenburg
0.78
Rubin
0.71
Temp Barnaul
0.67
Tekstilshchik
0.67
Nizhny Novgorod
0.67
Zenit Penza
0.50
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
0.50
2Drots
0.50
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
0.33
Spartak Nalchik
0.00
Saturn Ramenskoye
0.00
Dinamo Bryansk
0.00
Irtysh Omsk
0.00
Tver
0.00
Torpedo Miass
0.00
Pobeda
0.00
Anri Vladivostok
0.00
Dinamo St. Petersburg
0.00
Mashuk-KMV
0.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
0.00
Novosibirsk
0.00
Nart Cherkessk
0.00
Torpedo Vladimir
0.00
Kaluga
0.00
Ryazan
0.00
Ska-khabarovsk
0.00
Leningradets
0.00
Spartak Kostroma
0.00
Strogino
0.00
Fakel is 0.25 goals worse than Dynamo in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.58).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Spartak Nalchik
0.00
Dinamo Bryansk
0.00
Irtysh Omsk
0.00
Tver
0.00
Torpedo Miass
0.00
Nart Cherkessk
0.00
Rodina Moskva
0.00
Spartak Kostroma
0.00
Zenit Penza
0.50
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
0.50
Dinamo Vologda
0.50
2Drots
0.50
FK Sokol Saratov
0.50
KAMAZ
0.50
Volgar Astrakhan
0.67
Chelyabinsk
0.67
Tekstilshchik
0.67
Zenit
0.73
Irkutsk
0.75
FC Krasnodar
0.77
Arsenal Tula
0.80
Dynamo
0.92
Saturn Ramenskoye
1.00
KDV
1.00
Temp Barnaul
1.00
Pobeda
1.00
Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.00
FK Spartak Tambov
1.00
Salyut-Belgorod
1.00
Dinamo Kirov
1.00
Amkar
1.00
Tyumen
1.00
Torpedo Vladimir
1.00
Druzhba
1.00
Kaluga
1.00
Znamya Noginsk
1.00
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.00
Enisey
1.00
Torpedo Moskva
1.00
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.00
Ural
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
Angust Nazran
1.00
Strogino
1.00
Spartak Moscow
1.08
Broke Boys
1.25
CSKA Moscow
1.25
Baltika
1.25
Veles
1.25
Rubin
1.29
Lokomotiv
1.30
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
1.33
Astrakhan
1.33
Fakel
1.33
Dinamo Stavropol
1.50
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.50
Mashuk-KMV
1.50
FC Rostov
1.50
Chayka
1.50
Kristall MEZ
1.50
FK Neftekhimik
1.50
FC 10
1.50
Metallurg Asha
1.50
Chita
1.50
Izberbash
1.50
Iskra Smolensk
1.50
Bomik
1.50
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
1.50
FC Tosno
1.50
SKA Rostov
1.50
Izhevsk
1.50
Kirovets Voskhozhdenie
1.50
Anzhi
1.50
Luki-Energiya
1.67
Akhmat
1.67
Cherepovets
1.75
Krylia Sovetov
1.90
Avangard Kursk
2.00
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
2.00
Chertanovo Moscow
2.00
Dinamo Barnaul
2.00
Novosibirsk
2.00
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
2.00
Rotor Volgograd
2.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
2.00
Volga Ulyanovsk
2.00
Akron
2.17
Nizhny Novgorod
2.17
Leningradets
2.50
FC Orenburg
2.56
Murom
3.00
Kvant
3.00
Shumbrat
3.00
Kristall
3.00
Orel
3.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
3.00
Nosta
3.00
Ilpar
3.00
Ryazan
3.00
Ska-khabarovsk
3.00
FC Sochi
3.00
Anri Vladivostok
4.00
Fakel is 0.42 goals worse than Dynamo in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 0.92).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
CSKA Moscow
64%
Baltika
36%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Fakel
For 5.5 · Against 2.5 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 10.5 · Total 23.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dynamo
For 5.9 · Against 4.3 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.8 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 16.6 · Total 27.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fakel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.2
9.3
3.1
3.1
3.2
28.8
31.1
26.2
vs Stronger (7)
10.1
11.5
8.3
5.1
5.5
4.7
27.6
31.2
22.7
vs Similar (43)
8.5
7.0
10.0
2.8
2.7
3.0
30.3
31.0
29.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
53%
50%
57%
48%
42%
54%
92%
100%
83%
% under line
47%
50%
43%
52%
58%
46%
8%
0%
17%
This opponent (Dynamo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dynamo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.7
10.7
4.1
4.2
4.1
27.4
27.5
27.4
vs Stronger (5)
10.3
10.0
11.0
4.2
3.3
5.5
28.7
27.0
32.0
vs Similar (24)
9.6
9.6
9.7
4.3
4.3
4.4
30.2
30.8
29.8
vs Weaker (21)
10.8
9.8
11.9
3.9
4.3
3.4
24.4
24.7
24.1
% over line
54%
42%
67%
66%
72%
60%
95%
100%
89%
% under line
46%
58%
33%
34%
28%
40%
5%
0%
11%
This opponent (Fakel) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rodina Moskva
13.5
Tekstilshchik
12.0
Arsenal Tula
11.0
Rotor Volgograd
11.0
Chelyabinsk
11.0
Dynamo
10.5
CSKA Moscow
10.5
Spartak Kostroma
10.5
Nizhny Novgorod
10.5
FC Orenburg
10.5
Zenit
9.7
Volgar Astrakhan
9.6
Akron
9.4
Krylia Sovetov
9.4
Veles
9.4
Akhmat
9.3
FC Sochi
9.2
Lokomotiv
9.2
Dinamo Makhachkala
9.2
Fakel
9.0
Ural
9.0
Spartak Moscow
8.8
Rubin
8.7
Ska-khabarovsk
8.7
FC UFA
8.7
FC Rostov
8.6
Torpedo Moskva
8.5
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
8.5
Leningradets
8.5
FC Krasnodar
8.3
Baltika
8.1
FK Neftekhimik
7.5
Tyumen
7.4
Volga Ulyanovsk
6.3
Enisey
5.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Broke Boys
7.0
Spartak Moscow
5.4
FC Krasnodar
5.0
Baltika
5.0
Tekstilshchik
5.0
FC Rostov
4.9
Rubin
4.8
CSKA Moscow
4.8
Lokomotiv
4.6
Akhmat
4.6
Fakel
4.6
FC Orenburg
4.6
Nizhny Novgorod
4.5
Volga Ulyanovsk
4.5
Krylia Sovetov
4.5
KAMAZ
4.5
Dynamo
4.5
Veles
4.5
Dinamo Makhachkala
4.4
FC Sochi
4.4
Chelyabinsk
4.3
FC UFA
4.3
Spartak Kostroma
4.0
Volgar Astrakhan
4.0
FK Sokol Saratov
4.0
Zenit
4.0
Chayka
3.9
Arsenal Tula
3.9
Akron
3.8
Rotor Volgograd
3.8
Ural
3.8
Enisey
3.6
Ska-khabarovsk
3.6
Torpedo Moskva
3.5
Leningradets
3.4
Tyumen
3.3
Rodina Moskva
3.3
FK Neftekhimik
3.1
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
3.1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.1
Irkutsk
3.0
Mashuk-KMV
1.0
Luki-Energiya
1.0
Chertanovo Moscow
0.0
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
0.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torpedo Moskva
32.0
Baltika
30.5
Spartak Moscow
30.2
Rodina Moskva
30.0
Dinamo Makhachkala
30.0
FC Krasnodar
29.7
FC Rostov
29.6
Akhmat
29.5
Rubin
29.1
Nizhny Novgorod
28.6
Rotor Volgograd
28.5
Fakel
28.4
FC Orenburg
28.2
Dynamo
27.6
Lokomotiv
27.3
Zenit
27.3
FC Sochi
27.1
Akron
27.0
CSKA Moscow
26.8
Ural
26.8
Krylia Sovetov
26.0
Enisey
23.0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
14.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
55.0%
Under 9.5
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
58.1%
Under 3.5
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
77.1%
Under 21.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Fakel or Draw✗ Miss
61.9%
Avg Implied -
29%
33%
38%
covers Fakel + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Fakel or Dynamo✓ Hit
66.7%
Avg Implied -
29%
33%
38%
covers Fakel + Dynamo
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dynamo✓ Hit
71.4%
Avg Implied -
29%
33%
38%
covers Draw + Dynamo
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Fakel over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
59.9%
Under
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fakel over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
23.2%
Under
76.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fakel over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fakel over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dynamo over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
66.6%
Under
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dynamo over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
29.9%
Under
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dynamo over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.9%
Under
90.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dynamo over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Fakel, so a minus line means Fakel give that many goals of a start and Dynamo receive them. At -1, Fakel must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Fakel win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Fakel)Actual: Dynamo
Fakel -2
2.7%
Draw -2
7.7%
Dynamo +2
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Fakel)Actual: Dynamo
Fakel -1
10.4%
Draw -1
18.1%
Dynamo +1
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Fakel)Actual: Draw
Fakel +1
61.9%
Draw +1
22.0%
Dynamo -1
16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Fakel)Actual: Fakel
Fakel +2
83.9%
Draw +2
11.1%
Dynamo -2
5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fakel
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.53
0.56
0.44
0.64
0.64
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (29)
0.62
0.48
0.56
0.44
0.69
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Dynamo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dynamo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.47
0.87
0.67
0.67
0.27
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.40
0.60
1.00
0.50
0.10
vs Weaker (11)
1.18
0.36
1.12
0.25
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Fakel) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fakel over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fakel over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fakel over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dynamo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dynamo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dynamo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fakel
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.37
0.88
0.38
0.71
0.36
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (29)
0.76
0.34
0.88
0.38
0.62
0.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Dynamo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dynamo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.70
1.13
0.67
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.75
0.00
0.50
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.80
0.67
1.40
0.80
0.50
0.60
vs Weaker (11)
1.00
0.73
1.25
0.62
0.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Fakel) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fakel over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fakel over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fakel over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dynamo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dynamo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dynamo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Fakel
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Maksim Turishchev25%
Alexey Sutormin20%
Vyacheslav Yakimov17%
Darko Todorović0%
Belajdi Pusi0%
Igor Yurganov0%
Ilnur Alshin0%
Ravil Netfullin0%
Yuriy Zhuravlev0%
Nikolay Giorgobiani0%
Butta Magomedov0%
Anton Kovalev0%
Daniil Frolkin0%
Albert Gabaraev0%
Abdula Bagamaev0%
Matvey Bardachev0%
Axel Gnapi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Darko Todorović33%
Alexey Sutormin20%
Vyacheslav Yakimov17%
Nikolay Giorgobiani17%
Butta Magomedov17%
Albert Gabaraev17%
Axel Gnapi17%
Belajdi Pusi0%
Igor Yurganov0%
Ilnur Alshin0%
Ravil Netfullin0%
Yuriy Zhuravlev0%
Anton Kovalev0%
Daniil Frolkin0%
Maksim Turishchev0%
Abdula Bagamaev0%
Matvey Bardachev0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Belajdi Pusi20%
Nikolay Giorgobiani17%
Darko Todorović0%
Igor Yurganov0%
Ilnur Alshin0%
Vyacheslav Yakimov0%
Ravil Netfullin0%
Alexey Sutormin0%
Yuriy Zhuravlev0%
Butta Magomedov0%
Anton Kovalev0%
Daniil Frolkin0%
Maksim Turishchev0%
Albert Gabaraev0%
Abdula Bagamaev0%
Matvey Bardachev0%
Axel Gnapi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Vyacheslav Yakimov17%
Darko Todorović0%
Belajdi Pusi0%
Igor Yurganov0%
Ilnur Alshin0%
Ravil Netfullin0%
Alexey Sutormin0%
Yuriy Zhuravlev0%
Nikolay Giorgobiani0%
Butta Magomedov0%
Anton Kovalev0%
Daniil Frolkin0%
Maksim Turishchev0%
Albert Gabaraev0%
Abdula Bagamaev0%
Matvey Bardachev0%
Axel Gnapi0%
Dynamo
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Anton Miranchuk33%
Dmitri Skopintsev20%
Konstantin Tyukavin20%
Timofey Marinkin20%
Arthur Gomes17%
Maksim Osipenko17%
Daniil Fomin0%
Danil Glebov0%
Ivan Sergeev0%
Bitello0%
Juan Cáceres0%
Yaroslav Gladyshev0%
Rubens0%
David Ricardo0%
Kurban Rasulov0%
Leon Zaydenzal0%
Viktor Okishor0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
David Ricardo50%
Viktor Okishor33%
Daniil Fomin25%
Juan Cáceres20%
Timofey Marinkin20%
Ivan Sergeev17%
Yaroslav Gladyshev17%
Rubens17%
Anton Miranchuk0%
Dmitri Skopintsev0%
Arthur Gomes0%
Maksim Osipenko0%
Danil Glebov0%
Bitello0%
Konstantin Tyukavin0%
Kurban Rasulov0%
Leon Zaydenzal0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Viktor Okishor33%
Konstantin Tyukavin20%
Maksim Osipenko17%
Ivan Sergeev17%
Bitello17%
Anton Miranchuk0%
Dmitri Skopintsev0%
Arthur Gomes0%
Daniil Fomin0%
Danil Glebov0%
Juan Cáceres0%
Yaroslav Gladyshev0%
Rubens0%
David Ricardo0%
Kurban Rasulov0%
Leon Zaydenzal0%
Timofey Marinkin0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Konstantin Tyukavin40%
Anton Miranchuk17%
Arthur Gomes17%
Ivan Sergeev17%
Bitello17%
Dmitri Skopintsev0%
Daniil Fomin0%
Maksim Osipenko0%
Danil Glebov0%
Juan Cáceres0%
Yaroslav Gladyshev0%
Rubens0%
David Ricardo0%
Kurban Rasulov0%
Leon Zaydenzal0%
Viktor Okishor0%
Timofey Marinkin0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (26)
€182m
SM (26)
€129m
FK (28)
€114m
CM (27)
€111m
DYN (28)
€110m
LOK (27)
€68m
RUB (27)
€45m
FR (28)
€32m
BAL (31)
€30m
AKH (25)
€30m
KS (27)
€26m
AKR (25)
€25m
DM (29)
€20m
FO (30)
€18m
NN (28)
€18m
RM (26)
€17m
FS (21)
€15m
FAK (26)
€14m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
CHE (23)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SK (27)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
VU (24)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
LEN (22)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
VEL (23)
€5m
TEK (25)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
Fakel's squad is €97m less valuable than Dynamo's (€14m vs €110m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (9)
€100m
SM (10)
€59m
DYN (8)
€45m
CM (11)
€37m
FK (9)
€34m
LOK (8)
€21m
AKH (11)
€17m
FR (11)
€14m
AKR (9)
€11m
BAL (10)
€10m
KS (11)
€9m
DM (13)
€9m
FO (12)
€8m
RUB (5)
€8m
RM (11)
€7m
NN (11)
€6m
TM (10)
€5m
FAK (10)
€5m
FS (8)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
CHE (9)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
SK (8)
€3m
VU (9)
€2m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
TEK (9)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
VEL (7)
€2m
LEN (7)
€1m
Fakel's attack is €40m less valuable than Dynamo's (€5m vs €45m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CM (5)
€48m
SM (6)
€37m
FK (7)
€35m
ZEN (5)
€31m
DYN (7)
€24m
RUB (6)
€12m
LOK (7)
€8m
BAL (6)
€6m
AKR (6)
€6m
KS (4)
€6m
FR (5)
€5m
AKH (4)
€4m
RM (4)
€3m
FO (5)
€3m
DM (5)
€3m
NN (5)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FAK (4)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
SK (7)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
FS (2)
€1m
LEN (6)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
VU (5)
€1m
CHE (2)
€1m
TEK (6)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
Fakel's midfield is €22m less valuable than Dynamo's (€2m vs €24m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (12)
€50m
FK (12)
€45m
DYN (13)
€42m
LOK (12)
€40m
SM (10)
€34m
CM (11)
€26m
RUB (16)
€25m
BAL (15)
€15m
FR (12)
€13m
KS (12)
€11m
FS (11)
€9m
AKH (10)
€9m
NN (12)
€9m
AKR (10)
€8m
DM (11)
€8m
FO (13)
€7m
FAK (12)
€7m
RM (11)
€7m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
SK (12)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
CHE (12)
€3m
AT (10)
€3m
VU (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
LEN (9)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
TEK (10)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
Fakel's defence is €35m less valuable than Dynamo's (€7m vs €42m).
Russia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Krasnodar
Spartak Moscow
Zenit
CSKA Moscow
Baltika
Rubin
Dinamo Makhachkala
FC Orenburg
Akhmat
Krylia Sovetov
FC Rostov
Rodina Moskva
Lokomotiv
Akron