Fakel’s recent five-game run of losses, ending with a 0-1 defeat to Zenit, leaves the club vulnerable at home, while FC Krasnodar’s five-game winning streak, capped by a 1-0 victory over FC Rostov, fuels confidence on the road. The model’s most credible outcome is an away win, with a 53% chance, followed by a 32% draw and a 15% home win. The average number of goals is 1.8, and the single most likely scoreline is 0-1, which the model assigns a 19.1% probability. Fakel’s home form shows they average zero goals scored and concede one against stronger opposition, whereas Krasnodar, playing away against weaker teams, averages 1.43 goals scored and 0.71 conceded. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 goals at 99.9%, Home under 3.5 goals at 99.7%, Under 6.5 at 99.7%, Under 11.5 corners at 99.7%, Under 10.5 corners at 99.1%, Under 5.5 at 98.8% with an 11% edge, Home under 2.5 goals at 98.0% with an 8% edge, and Under 9.5 corners at 97.8%.
Results analysis
The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, the model’s pick for an away win at 61%, failed to materialise, leaving the match to finish in a 1-1 draw. The model’s call was therefore wrong. The final score of 1-1 matched the actual result, and the game ended in a draw. The model’s selection for Under 7.5 goals, with a 99.5% probability, hit, as did Home under 3.5 goals at 99.1%, Under 6.5 at 98.3%, Home under 2.5 goals at 95.4%, Away +2 handicap at 95.3%, Under 5.5 at 95.1%, and Away under 3.5 goals at 88.9%. All seven selections were settled, each hitting the predicted outcome.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fakel win✗ Miss
14.8%
Avg Implied 20.6% · @ 4.54
Edge
-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
4.70
Pinnacle
4.65
1xBet
4.62
Dafabet
4.60
Superbet
4.45
Draw✓ Hit
24.6%
Avg Implied 25.0% · @ 3.74
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.92
Marathonbet
3.92
Pinnacle
3.87
Superbet
3.70
Dafabet
3.70
FC Krasnodar win✗ Miss
60.6%
Avg Implied 54.4% · @ 1.72
Edge
+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.76
Marathonbet
1.75
Superbet
1.70
Dafabet
1.69
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Fakel
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.90
1.17
0.78
1.42
1.08
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
1.38
0.81
1.31
0.75
1.50
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Krasnodar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Krasnodar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.80
2.57
0.64
1.25
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.42
1.00
2.33
0.67
1.11
1.11
vs Weaker (18)
2.17
0.67
2.64
0.64
1.43
0.71
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Fakel) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.4%
@ 1.26+0.4%
Under 1.5
25.6%
@ 3.57-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.73
Superbet
3.55
Marathonbet
3.50
1xBet
3.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.3%
@ 1.86-2.8%
Under 2.5
51.7%
@ 1.94+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathonbet
1.88
1xBet
1.88
SBO
1.85
Superbet
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
1.97
1xBet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
SBO
1.93
Superbet
1.90
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.5%
@ 3.07-3.9%
Under 3.5
73.5%
@ 1.34+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.17
1xBet
3.05
Marathonbet
3.05
Superbet
3.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.37
Superbet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.8%
@ 1.79-4.9%
No
53.2%
@ 1.92+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.79
No
1xBet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.92
Superbet
1.90
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
12.4%@ 6.48+5.6%
0-2
12.2%@ 7.65+6.5%
1-1 ✓
11.7%@ 6.51+5.0%
1-2
9.6%@ 7.55+3.9%
0-0
8.5%@ 11.37+4.6%
0-3
7.4%@ 13.00+4.0%
1-3
5.8%@ 13.17+2.5%
1-0
4.8%@ 12.01+1.2%
Fakel goals ↓
FC Krasnodar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
12%
12%
7.4%
3.3%
1
4.8%
12%
9.6%
5.8%
2.6%
2
2.3%
4.2%
3.8%
2.3%
1.0%
3
0.6%
1.1%
1.0%
0.6%
0.3%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fakel goals (down), columns = FC Krasnodar goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zenit
2.55
Volgar Astrakhan
2.33
Irkutsk
2.25
Broke Boys
2.25
Cherepovets
2.25
Kristall MEZ
2.25
Veles
2.25
Spartak Moscow
2.08
KDV
2.00
Dinamo Vologda
2.00
Luki-Energiya
2.00
Astrakhan
2.00
Tyumen
2.00
Rodina Moskva
2.00
Enisey
2.00
Arsenal Tula
2.00
Shinnik Yaroslavl
2.00
FC Krasnodar
1.92
CSKA Moscow
1.75
Torpedo Moskva
1.75
Lokomotiv
1.70
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.70
Chelyabinsk
1.67
Dynamo
1.58
Zenit Penza
1.50
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.50
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.50
FK Spartak Tambov
1.50
Salyut-Belgorod
1.50
Chayka
1.50
2Drots
1.50
Ilpar
1.50
Znamya Noginsk
1.50
FK Sokol Saratov
1.50
KAMAZ
1.50
Ural
1.50
Fakel
1.33
FC Rostov
1.25
Krylia Sovetov
1.10
FC 10
1.04
Metallurg Asha
1.04
Chita
1.04
Izberbash
1.04
Iskra Smolensk
1.04
Bomik
1.04
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
1.04
FC Tosno
1.04
SKA Rostov
1.04
Izhevsk
1.04
Kirovets Voskhozhdenie
1.04
Anzhi
1.04
Spartak Nalchik
1.00
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.00
Dinamo Bryansk
1.00
Irtysh Omsk
1.00
Tver
1.00
Torpedo Miass
1.00
Nart Cherkessk
1.00
Dinamo Kirov
1.00
Amkar
1.00
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.00
Druzhba
1.00
Tekstilshchik
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
Spartak Kostroma
1.00
Angust Nazran
1.00
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.00
Baltika
0.88
Rubin
0.86
FC Orenburg
0.78
FK Neftekhimik
0.75
Temp Barnaul
0.67
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
0.67
Akron
0.67
Akhmat
0.67
Dinamo Stavropol
0.50
Saturn Ramenskoye
0.50
Mashuk-KMV
0.50
Nizhny Novgorod
0.50
FC Sochi
0.33
Murom
0.00
Avangard Kursk
0.00
Chertanovo Moscow
0.00
Dinamo Barnaul
0.00
Kvant
0.00
Shumbrat
0.00
Kristall
0.00
Pobeda
0.00
Anri Vladivostok
0.00
Dinamo St. Petersburg
0.00
Orel
0.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
0.00
Novosibirsk
0.00
Torpedo Vladimir
0.00
Nosta
0.00
Kaluga
0.00
Ryazan
0.00
Ska-khabarovsk
0.00
Leningradets
0.00
Rotor Volgograd
0.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
0.00
Strogino
0.00
Fakel is 0.59 points worse than FC Krasnodar in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.92).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Irkutsk
3.75
Zvezda St. Petersburg
2.50
Cherepovets
2.50
Tyumen
2.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
2.50
KDV
2.33
Luki-Energiya
2.33
Zenit
2.09
FC Krasnodar
2.08
Murom
2.00
Orel
2.00
Salyut-Belgorod
2.00
Astrakhan
2.00
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
2.00
Kristall MEZ
2.00
Nosta
2.00
Ilpar
2.00
Veles
2.00
Volga Ulyanovsk
2.00
Spartak Moscow
1.85
Broke Boys
1.75
Torpedo Moskva
1.75
Lokomotiv
1.70
Arsenal Tula
1.60
Dynamo
1.58
CSKA Moscow
1.58
Znamya Noginsk
1.50
Rodina Moskva
1.50
Enisey
1.50
Krylia Sovetov
1.40
FC Rostov
1.38
Volgar Astrakhan
1.33
Akhmat
1.33
Fakel
1.33
FC Sochi
1.33
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.30
FC 10
1.10
Metallurg Asha
1.10
Chita
1.10
Izberbash
1.10
Iskra Smolensk
1.10
Bomik
1.10
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
1.10
FC Tosno
1.10
SKA Rostov
1.10
Izhevsk
1.10
Kirovets Voskhozhdenie
1.10
Anzhi
1.10
Dinamo Stavropol
1.00
Avangard Kursk
1.00
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.00
Chertanovo Moscow
1.00
Dinamo Barnaul
1.00
Kvant
1.00
Shumbrat
1.00
Kristall
1.00
Dinamo Vologda
1.00
FK Spartak Tambov
1.00
Dinamo Kirov
1.00
Amkar
1.00
Chayka
1.00
Akron
1.00
Druzhba
1.00
FK Sokol Saratov
1.00
Baltika
1.00
KAMAZ
1.00
Chelyabinsk
1.00
FK Neftekhimik
1.00
Ural
1.00
Rotor Volgograd
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
Angust Nazran
1.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.00
FC Orenburg
0.78
Rubin
0.71
Temp Barnaul
0.67
Tekstilshchik
0.67
Nizhny Novgorod
0.67
Zenit Penza
0.50
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
0.50
2Drots
0.50
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
0.33
Spartak Nalchik
0.00
Saturn Ramenskoye
0.00
Dinamo Bryansk
0.00
Irtysh Omsk
0.00
Tver
0.00
Torpedo Miass
0.00
Pobeda
0.00
Anri Vladivostok
0.00
Dinamo St. Petersburg
0.00
Mashuk-KMV
0.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
0.00
Novosibirsk
0.00
Nart Cherkessk
0.00
Torpedo Vladimir
0.00
Kaluga
0.00
Ryazan
0.00
Ska-khabarovsk
0.00
Leningradets
0.00
Spartak Kostroma
0.00
Strogino
0.00
Fakel is 0.74 goals worse than FC Krasnodar in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 2.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Spartak Nalchik
0.00
Dinamo Bryansk
0.00
Irtysh Omsk
0.00
Tver
0.00
Torpedo Miass
0.00
Nart Cherkessk
0.00
Rodina Moskva
0.00
Spartak Kostroma
0.00
Zenit Penza
0.50
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
0.50
Dinamo Vologda
0.50
2Drots
0.50
FK Sokol Saratov
0.50
KAMAZ
0.50
Volgar Astrakhan
0.67
Chelyabinsk
0.67
Tekstilshchik
0.67
Zenit
0.73
Irkutsk
0.75
FC Krasnodar
0.77
Arsenal Tula
0.80
Dynamo
0.92
Saturn Ramenskoye
1.00
KDV
1.00
Temp Barnaul
1.00
Pobeda
1.00
Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.00
FK Spartak Tambov
1.00
Salyut-Belgorod
1.00
Dinamo Kirov
1.00
Amkar
1.00
Tyumen
1.00
Torpedo Vladimir
1.00
Druzhba
1.00
Kaluga
1.00
Znamya Noginsk
1.00
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.00
Enisey
1.00
Torpedo Moskva
1.00
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.00
Ural
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
Angust Nazran
1.00
Strogino
1.00
Spartak Moscow
1.08
Broke Boys
1.25
CSKA Moscow
1.25
Baltika
1.25
Veles
1.25
Rubin
1.29
Lokomotiv
1.30
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
1.33
Astrakhan
1.33
Fakel
1.33
Dinamo Stavropol
1.50
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.50
Mashuk-KMV
1.50
FC Rostov
1.50
Chayka
1.50
Kristall MEZ
1.50
FK Neftekhimik
1.50
FC 10
1.50
Metallurg Asha
1.50
Chita
1.50
Izberbash
1.50
Iskra Smolensk
1.50
Bomik
1.50
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
1.50
FC Tosno
1.50
SKA Rostov
1.50
Izhevsk
1.50
Kirovets Voskhozhdenie
1.50
Anzhi
1.50
Luki-Energiya
1.67
Akhmat
1.67
Cherepovets
1.75
Krylia Sovetov
1.90
Avangard Kursk
2.00
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
2.00
Chertanovo Moscow
2.00
Dinamo Barnaul
2.00
Novosibirsk
2.00
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
2.00
Rotor Volgograd
2.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
2.00
Volga Ulyanovsk
2.00
Akron
2.17
Nizhny Novgorod
2.17
Leningradets
2.50
FC Orenburg
2.56
Murom
3.00
Kvant
3.00
Shumbrat
3.00
Kristall
3.00
Orel
3.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
3.00
Nosta
3.00
Ilpar
3.00
Ryazan
3.00
Ska-khabarovsk
3.00
FC Sochi
3.00
Anri Vladivostok
4.00
Fakel is 0.56 goals worse than FC Krasnodar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 0.77).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
CSKA Moscow
64%
Baltika
36%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Fakel
For 5.5 · Against 3.9 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.2 · Against 12.2 · Total 25.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Krasnodar
For 4.4 · Against 4.0 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 12.6 · Total 25.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fakel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.4
9.8
3.0
2.9
3.1
26.7
28.0
24.5
vs Stronger (7)
10.5
11.7
9.3
4.4
3.8
5.3
25.2
27.0
23.3
vs Similar (43)
9.9
9.6
10.5
2.7
2.7
2.8
28.6
28.8
28.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
69%
62%
80%
46%
41%
52%
91%
100%
75%
% under line
31%
38%
20%
54%
59%
48%
9%
0%
25%
This opponent (FC Krasnodar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Krasnodar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
8.8
8.5
4.5
5.1
4.0
28.0
27.4
28.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
9.0
9.8
8.3
4.9
6.2
3.9
29.8
28.8
30.7
vs Weaker (31)
8.5
8.4
8.5
4.3
4.5
4.0
27.2
26.8
27.5
% over line
37%
39%
35%
66%
76%
56%
89%
89%
88%
% under line
63%
61%
65%
34%
24%
44%
11%
11%
12%
This opponent (Fakel) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
KAMAZ
15.0
Rotor Volgograd
11.0
Chelyabinsk
11.0
Spartak Kostroma
10.5
Nizhny Novgorod
10.5
CSKA Moscow
10.2
Rodina Moskva
10.2
FC Orenburg
9.9
Dynamo
9.7
Zenit
9.6
Volgar Astrakhan
9.6
Krylia Sovetov
9.5
Akhmat
9.4
Arsenal Tula
9.3
FC Sochi
9.2
Fakel
9.2
Spartak Moscow
9.1
Akron
9.1
Tekstilshchik
9.0
Dinamo Makhachkala
8.9
Leningradets
8.9
Veles
8.8
Lokomotiv
8.8
FK Neftekhimik
8.7
FC UFA
8.7
FC Krasnodar
8.6
Torpedo Moskva
8.5
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
8.5
Ural
8.4
Rubin
8.4
FC Rostov
8.3
Baltika
8.2
Tyumen
7.4
Ska-khabarovsk
7.2
Volga Ulyanovsk
6.3
Enisey
5.5
KDV
4.0
Novosibirsk
4.0
Dinamo Bryansk
3.0
Znamya Noginsk
3.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Broke Boys
7.0
Tekstilshchik
5.5
Spartak Moscow
5.4
Baltika
5.0
FC Krasnodar
4.9
FC Rostov
4.8
Krylia Sovetov
4.7
Lokomotiv
4.6
Rubin
4.6
FC Orenburg
4.6
CSKA Moscow
4.5
Nizhny Novgorod
4.5
Volga Ulyanovsk
4.5
KAMAZ
4.5
Dynamo
4.5
Akhmat
4.5
FC Sochi
4.4
Veles
4.4
Chelyabinsk
4.3
Dinamo Makhachkala
4.3
FC UFA
4.3
Zenit
4.1
Fakel
4.1
Spartak Kostroma
4.0
Akron
4.0
Volgar Astrakhan
4.0
FK Sokol Saratov
4.0
Chayka
3.9
Arsenal Tula
3.9
Rotor Volgograd
3.8
Ural
3.8
Enisey
3.6
Ska-khabarovsk
3.6
Torpedo Moskva
3.5
Rodina Moskva
3.4
Leningradets
3.3
Tyumen
3.3
FK Neftekhimik
3.1
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
3.1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.1
KDV
3.0
Novosibirsk
3.0
Irkutsk
3.0
Mashuk-KMV
1.0
Luki-Energiya
1.0
Dinamo Bryansk
0.0
Znamya Noginsk
0.0
Chertanovo Moscow
0.0
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
0.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torpedo Moskva
32.0
Spartak Moscow
30.3
Baltika
30.2
FC Orenburg
28.9
FC Rostov
28.9
Dinamo Makhachkala
28.8
Rubin
28.7
Nizhny Novgorod
28.6
Rotor Volgograd
28.5
Akhmat
28.5
FC Krasnodar
28.3
Rodina Moskva
28.2
Fakel
27.8
Dynamo
27.7
Lokomotiv
27.5
Akron
27.5
Zenit
27.4
FC Sochi
27.1
FK Neftekhimik
27.0
FC UFA
27.0
Ural
26.8
CSKA Moscow
26.7
Krylia Sovetov
26.3
Enisey
23.0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
14.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
19.0%
@ 1.84-31.4%
Under 9.5
81.0%
@ 1.86+31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.81
1xBet
1.80
Under
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.89
Superbet
1.80
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.6%
@ 1.61-9.0%
Under 3.5
52.4%
@ 2.10+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.61
Under
Superbet
2.10
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
77.1%
Under 21.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Fakel or Draw✓ Hit
39.4%
Avg Implied 44.3% · @ 2.12
Edge
-5.0%
15%
25%
61%
covers Fakel + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
2.15
1xBet
2.15
SBO
2.15
Superbet
2.02
Fakel or FC Krasnodar✗ Miss
75.4%
Avg Implied 75.7% · @ 1.24
Edge
-0.3%
15%
25%
61%
covers Fakel + FC Krasnodar
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Superbet
1.23
SBO
1.17
Draw or FC Krasnodar✓ Hit
85.2%
Avg Implied 79.9% · @ 1.18
Edge
+5.3%
15%
25%
61%
covers Draw + FC Krasnodar
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Superbet
1.17
SBO
1.09
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Fakel over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
54.6%
@ 1.52-7.0%
Under
45.4%
@ 2.44+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.54
1xBet
1.52
Superbet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.54
Marathonbet
2.41
1xBet
2.41
Superbet
2.40
Fakel over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
18.8%
@ 3.50-8.1%
Under
81.2%
@ 1.29+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.65
Marathonbet
3.64
Superbet
3.40
1xBet
3.30
Under
1xBet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Fakel over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
4.6%
@ 9.85-4.9%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.03+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.50
Marathonbet
10.25
Superbet
8.80
Under
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
Fakel over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Krasnodar over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
83.7%
@ 1.15+2.6%
Under
16.3%
@ 4.95-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.16
Superbet
1.14
Under
1xBet
5.05
Superbet
4.85
FC Krasnodar over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
54.1%
@ 1.80+1.7%
Under
45.9%
@ 1.99-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.84
Marathonbet
1.83
1xBet
1.81
Superbet
1.74
Under
1xBet
2.00
Pinnacle
2.00
Marathonbet
1.98
Superbet
1.97
FC Krasnodar over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
27.3%
@ 3.51+0.6%
Under
72.7%
@ 1.28-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.63
1xBet
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
Superbet
3.25
Under
Superbet
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
FC Krasnodar over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
11.1%
@ 8.10-0.4%
Under
88.9%
@ 1.05+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.40
Marathonbet
7.80
Under
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Fakel, so a minus line means Fakel give that many goals of a start and FC Krasnodar receive them. At -1, Fakel must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Fakel win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Fakel)Actual: FC Krasnodar
Fakel -2
1.0%
Draw -2
3.6%
FC Krasnodar +2
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Fakel)Actual: FC Krasnodar
Fakel -1
4.7%
@ 5.70-9.2%
Draw -1
10.1%
@ 3.70-11.3%
FC Krasnodar +1
85.2%
@ 1.22+20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
5.70
Draw
Marathonbet
3.70
Away
Marathonbet
1.22
Handicap +1 (Fakel)Actual: Fakel
Fakel +1
39.4%
@ 2.15-3.2%
Draw +1
24.6%
@ 3.48-1.7%
FC Krasnodar -1
36.1%
@ 2.94+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.15
Draw
Marathonbet
3.48
Away
Marathonbet
2.94
Handicap +2 (Fakel)Actual: Fakel
Fakel +2
63.9%
@ 1.35-2.6%
Draw +2
19.1%
@ 5.05+1.3%
FC Krasnodar -2
16.9%
@ 5.75+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.35
Draw
Marathonbet
5.05
Away
Marathonbet
5.75
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fakel
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.39
0.33
0.67
0.75
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.58
0.50
0.44
0.38
0.80
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Krasnodar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Krasnodar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.29
0.62
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.50
0.67
0.33
0.78
0.56
vs Weaker (18)
0.83
0.33
1.09
0.27
0.43
0.43
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Fakel) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.36
Superbet
1.34
Under
Pinnacle
3.12
Superbet
3.00
1xBet
3.00
Marathonbet
3.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.79
Marathonbet
2.75
1xBet
2.75
Superbet
2.57
Under
1xBet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.80
1xBet
6.80
Superbet
6.00
Under
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fakel over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.78
Superbet
2.62
Marathonbet
2.58
1xBet
2.55
Under
1xBet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Fakel over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
10.00
Under
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Fakel over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Krasnodar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.74
1xBet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
Superbet
1.68
Under
Pinnacle
2.09
Superbet
2.07
1xBet
2.04
Marathonbet
2.00
FC Krasnodar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.85
1xBet
4.50
Under
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
FC Krasnodar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Under
1xBet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fakel
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.40
0.78
0.44
0.75
0.33
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.81
0.31
0.88
0.38
0.70
0.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Krasnodar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Krasnodar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.40
1.57
0.36
0.62
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.50
1.67
0.33
0.33
0.56
vs Weaker (18)
1.33
0.33
1.55
0.36
1.00
0.29
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Fakel) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Under
1xBet
4.05
Marathonbet
4.05
Superbet
3.90
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.11
Marathonbet
2.11
Superbet
2.05
Under
1xBet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Superbet
1.70
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.45
Marathonbet
4.45
Superbet
4.20
Under
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fakel over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.18
Marathonbet
2.17
Superbet
2.17
Under
1xBet
1.64
Superbet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
Fakel over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.60
1xBet
7.30
Under
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Fakel over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Krasnodar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Under
1xBet
2.48
Superbet
2.45
FC Krasnodar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.40
1xBet
3.30
Superbet
2.72
Under
Superbet
1.40
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
FC Krasnodar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.30
Under
1xBet
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
95.4%
1.03
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
-
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.1%
1.01
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
88.9%
1.05
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
-
-
-
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.7%
1.10
Pinnacle
1.13
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
85.2%
1.18
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Superbet
1.17
SBO
1.09
-
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
83.7%
1.15
1xBet
1.16
Superbet
1.14
-
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
81.2%
1.29
1xBet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
-
+8.1%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.4%
1.24
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Superbet
1.23
SBO
1.17
-
-0.3%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
74.4%
1.26
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
-
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.5%
1.34
Pinnacle
1.37
Superbet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
72.7%
1.28
Superbet
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
-
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Fakel
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Maksim Turishchev25%
Alexey Sutormin20%
Vyacheslav Yakimov17%
Darko Todorović0%
Belajdi Pusi0%
Igor Yurganov0%
Ilnur Alshin0%
Ravil Netfullin0%
Yuriy Zhuravlev0%
Nikolay Giorgobiani0%
Butta Magomedov0%
Anton Kovalev0%
Daniil Frolkin0%
Albert Gabaraev0%
Abdula Bagamaev0%
Matvey Bardachev0%
Axel Gnapi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Darko Todorović33%
Alexey Sutormin20%
Vyacheslav Yakimov17%
Nikolay Giorgobiani17%
Butta Magomedov17%
Albert Gabaraev17%
Axel Gnapi17%
Belajdi Pusi0%
Igor Yurganov0%
Ilnur Alshin0%
Ravil Netfullin0%
Yuriy Zhuravlev0%
Anton Kovalev0%
Daniil Frolkin0%
Maksim Turishchev0%
Abdula Bagamaev0%
Matvey Bardachev0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Belajdi Pusi20%
Nikolay Giorgobiani17%
Darko Todorović0%
Igor Yurganov0%
Ilnur Alshin0%
Vyacheslav Yakimov0%
Ravil Netfullin0%
Alexey Sutormin0%
Yuriy Zhuravlev0%
Butta Magomedov0%
Anton Kovalev0%
Daniil Frolkin0%
Maksim Turishchev0%
Albert Gabaraev0%
Abdula Bagamaev0%
Matvey Bardachev0%
Axel Gnapi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Vyacheslav Yakimov17%
Darko Todorović0%
Belajdi Pusi0%
Igor Yurganov0%
Ilnur Alshin0%
Ravil Netfullin0%
Alexey Sutormin0%
Yuriy Zhuravlev0%
Nikolay Giorgobiani0%
Butta Magomedov0%
Anton Kovalev0%
Daniil Frolkin0%
Maksim Turishchev0%
Albert Gabaraev0%
Abdula Bagamaev0%
Matvey Bardachev0%
Axel Gnapi0%
FC Krasnodar
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jubal50%
Nikita Krivtsov50%
Christian33%
Juan Boselli25%
Lucas Olaza17%
João Batxi17%
Magomed Ozdoev0%
Aleksandr Chernikov0%
Daniil Utkin0%
Augusto Douglas0%
Vítor Tormena0%
Dmitry Vorobyev0%
Ilya Vakhaniya0%
Stanislav Agkatsev0%
Kevin Pina0%
Valentin Paltsev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jubal50%
Augusto Douglas40%
Nikita Krivtsov25%
Daniil Utkin20%
Aleksandr Chernikov17%
Dmitry Vorobyev17%
Ilya Vakhaniya17%
Lucas Olaza17%
Christian17%
Stanislav Agkatsev17%
João Batxi17%
Magomed Ozdoev0%
Vítor Tormena0%
Kevin Pina0%
Juan Boselli0%
Valentin Paltsev0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Christian33%
Juan Boselli25%
Nikita Krivtsov25%
Augusto Douglas20%
Dmitry Vorobyev17%
Lucas Olaza17%
Kevin Pina17%
João Batxi17%
Magomed Ozdoev0%
Aleksandr Chernikov0%
Daniil Utkin0%
Jubal0%
Vítor Tormena0%
Ilya Vakhaniya0%
Stanislav Agkatsev0%
Valentin Paltsev0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nikita Krivtsov75%
Juan Boselli25%
Jubal17%
Dmitry Vorobyev17%
Magomed Ozdoev0%
Aleksandr Chernikov0%
Daniil Utkin0%
Augusto Douglas0%
Vítor Tormena0%
Ilya Vakhaniya0%
Lucas Olaza0%
Christian0%
Stanislav Agkatsev0%
Kevin Pina0%
João Batxi0%
Valentin Paltsev0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (26)
€182m
SM (26)
€129m
FK (28)
€114m
CM (27)
€111m
DYN (28)
€110m
LOK (27)
€68m
RUB (27)
€45m
FR (28)
€32m
BAL (31)
€30m
AKH (25)
€30m
KS (27)
€26m
AKR (25)
€25m
DM (29)
€20m
FO (30)
€18m
NN (28)
€18m
RM (26)
€17m
FS (21)
€15m
FAK (26)
€14m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
CHE (23)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SK (27)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
VU (24)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
LEN (22)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
VEL (23)
€5m
TEK (25)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
Fakel's squad is €100m less valuable than FC Krasnodar's (€14m vs €114m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (9)
€100m
SM (10)
€59m
DYN (8)
€45m
CM (11)
€37m
FK (9)
€34m
LOK (8)
€21m
AKH (11)
€17m
FR (11)
€14m
AKR (9)
€11m
BAL (10)
€10m
KS (11)
€9m
DM (13)
€9m
FO (12)
€8m
RUB (5)
€8m
RM (11)
€7m
NN (11)
€6m
TM (10)
€5m
FAK (10)
€5m
FS (8)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
CHE (9)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
SK (8)
€3m
VU (9)
€2m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
TEK (9)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
VEL (7)
€2m
LEN (7)
€1m
Fakel's attack is €29m less valuable than FC Krasnodar's (€5m vs €34m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CM (5)
€48m
SM (6)
€37m
FK (7)
€35m
ZEN (5)
€31m
DYN (7)
€24m
RUB (6)
€12m
LOK (7)
€8m
BAL (6)
€6m
AKR (6)
€6m
KS (4)
€6m
FR (5)
€5m
AKH (4)
€4m
RM (4)
€3m
FO (5)
€3m
DM (5)
€3m
NN (5)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FAK (4)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
SK (7)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
FS (2)
€1m
LEN (6)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
VU (5)
€1m
CHE (2)
€1m
TEK (6)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
Fakel's midfield is €33m less valuable than FC Krasnodar's (€2m vs €35m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (12)
€50m
FK (12)
€45m
DYN (13)
€42m
LOK (12)
€40m
SM (10)
€34m
CM (11)
€26m
RUB (16)
€25m
BAL (15)
€15m
FR (12)
€13m
KS (12)
€11m
FS (11)
€9m
AKH (10)
€9m
NN (12)
€9m
AKR (10)
€8m
DM (11)
€8m
FO (13)
€7m
FAK (12)
€7m
RM (11)
€7m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
SK (12)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
CHE (12)
€3m
AT (10)
€3m
VU (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
LEN (9)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
TEK (10)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
Fakel's defence is €38m less valuable than FC Krasnodar's (€7m vs €45m).
Russia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: Premier League stats & trends →
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Spartak Moscow
Zenit
CSKA Moscow
Baltika
Dynamo
Rubin
Dinamo Makhachkala
FC Orenburg
Akhmat
Krylia Sovetov
FC Rostov
Rodina Moskva
Lokomotiv
Akron