This opponent (Volga Ulyanovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Volga Ulyanovsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.27
1.29
1.29
0.88
1.25
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.55
0.50
1.50
0.71
1.57
vs Similar (18)
1.28
1.17
1.60
1.20
0.88
1.12
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Fakel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
54.6%
Under 1.5
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
26.7%
Under 2.5
73.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
10.7%
Under 3.5
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
30.6%
No
69.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
19.9%
0-0
17.8%
2-0
13.3%
1-1
12.2%
0-1
7.7%
2-1 ✓
7.0%
3-0
5.6%
3-1
3.0%
Fakel goals ↓
Volga Ulyanovsk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
18%
7.7%
2.3%
0.4%
0.1%
1
20%
12%
2.9%
0.5%
0.1%
2
13%
7.0%
1.9%
0.3%
0.0%
3
5.6%
3.0%
0.8%
0.1%
0.0%
4
1.8%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fakel goals (down), columns = Volga Ulyanovsk goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rodina Moskva
2.00
Fakel
2.00
Ural
1.79
Rotor Volgograd
1.65
Spartak Kostroma
1.44
Enisey
1.44
KAMAZ
1.44
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.41
Torpedo Moskva
1.35
Chelyabinsk
1.29
FK Neftekhimik
1.26
Ska-khabarovsk
1.18
Arsenal Tula
1.15
FC UFA
1.12
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.09
Chernomorets
1.03
FK Sokol Saratov
0.76
Chayka
0.65
Fakel is 0.91 points better than Volga Ulyanovsk in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.09).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rodina Moskva
1.71
Ural
1.50
Rotor Volgograd
1.38
Spartak Kostroma
1.35
KAMAZ
1.35
Fakel
1.29
Chelyabinsk
1.24
Arsenal Tula
1.24
FK Neftekhimik
1.18
Torpedo Moskva
1.09
Enisey
1.09
Chernomorets
1.09
Ska-khabarovsk
1.03
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.03
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.00
FC UFA
0.97
Chayka
0.88
FK Sokol Saratov
0.47
Fakel is 0.26 goals better than Volga Ulyanovsk in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fakel
0.65
Rotor Volgograd
0.76
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.82
Rodina Moskva
0.82
Ural
0.91
KAMAZ
1.00
Enisey
1.03
FC UFA
1.12
Torpedo Moskva
1.15
Chelyabinsk
1.18
Spartak Kostroma
1.21
FK Neftekhimik
1.21
FK Sokol Saratov
1.29
Arsenal Tula
1.29
Ska-khabarovsk
1.36
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.41
Chernomorets
1.44
Chayka
2.24
Fakel is 0.76 goals better than Volga Ulyanovsk in terms of goals conceded per game (0.65 vs 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Fakel
53%
FK Neftekhimik
51%
Arsenal Tula
50%
Enisey
50%
Ska-khabarovsk
50%
Spartak Kostroma
49%
Torpedo Moskva
48%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Fakel
For 5.1 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.9 · Against 13.9 · Total 29.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Volga Ulyanovsk
For 3.0 · Against 3.4 · Total 6.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Fakel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
9.1
8.5
4.3
4.6
4.0
27.5
27.5
27.4
vs Stronger (20)
9.2
9.8
8.6
4.3
3.9
4.7
29.4
30.5
28.4
vs Similar (30)
8.4
8.4
8.3
4.3
5.1
3.6
25.3
24.5
26.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
40%
40%
40%
64%
71%
58%
97%
94%
100%
% under line
60%
60%
60%
36%
29%
42%
3%
6%
0%
This opponent (Volga Ulyanovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Volga Ulyanovsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
6.3
8.0
6.1
2.0
1.6
2.3
-
-
-
vs Stronger (16)
5.8
-
5.8
2.6
1.6
3.3
-
-
-
vs Similar (33)
6.8
8.0
6.5
1.7
1.6
1.8
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
0%
24%
25%
23%
-
-
-
% under line
100%
100%
100%
76%
75%
77%
-
-
-
This opponent (Fakel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Shinnik Yaroslavl
17.0
Arsenal Tula
12.5
KAMAZ
11.5
Chernomorets
11.5
Ural
10.5
Torpedo Moskva
9.5
FK Neftekhimik
9.0
Fakel
9.0
FC UFA
8.9
Rodina Moskva
8.0
Volga Ulyanovsk
6.3
Enisey
6.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Fakel
5.0
Volga Ulyanovsk
4.7
KAMAZ
4.5
FC UFA
4.3
Spartak Kostroma
3.9
Rotor Volgograd
3.8
Ural
3.8
Enisey
3.8
Chernomorets
3.8
Chayka
3.7
Chelyabinsk
3.7
FK Sokol Saratov
3.6
Torpedo Moskva
3.4
Rodina Moskva
3.4
Ska-khabarovsk
3.4
Arsenal Tula
3.1
FK Neftekhimik
3.1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torpedo Moskva
32.0
Fakel
26.7
Ural
25.2
Arsenal Tula
23.5
Enisey
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
36.1%
Under 9.5
63.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
61.7%
Under 3.5
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
90.4%
Under 21.5
9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fakel
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
0.37
0.14
0.50
0.25
0.25
vs Stronger (9)
0.11
0.67
0.00
0.83
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (21)
0.24
0.24
0.25
0.25
0.23
0.23
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Volga Ulyanovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Volga Ulyanovsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.73
0.57
0.86
0.31
0.62
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
0.82
0.25
0.75
0.29
0.86
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.72
0.70
0.90
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Fakel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fakel over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fakel over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fakel over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fakel
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.63
0.36
0.14
0.38
1.06
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
1.11
0.17
0.33
0.33
2.67
vs Similar (21)
0.43
0.43
0.50
0.00
0.38
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Volga Ulyanovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Volga Ulyanovsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.53
0.71
0.43
0.56
0.62
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
0.73
0.25
0.75
0.43
0.71
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.44
0.90
0.30
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Fakel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fakel over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fakel over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fakel over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Fakel · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Maksim Turishchev25%
Alexey Sutormin20%
Vyacheslav Yakimov17%
Darko Todorović0%
Belajdi Pusi0%
Igor Yurganov0%
Ilnur Alshin0%
Ravil Netfullin0%
Yuriy Zhuravlev0%
Nikolay Giorgobiani0%
Butta Magomedov0%
Anton Kovalev0%
Daniil Frolkin0%
Albert Gabaraev0%
Abdula Bagamaev0%
Matvey Bardachev0%
Axel Gnapi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Darko Todorović33%
Alexey Sutormin20%
Vyacheslav Yakimov17%
Nikolay Giorgobiani17%
Butta Magomedov17%
Albert Gabaraev17%
Axel Gnapi17%
Belajdi Pusi0%
Igor Yurganov0%
Ilnur Alshin0%
Ravil Netfullin0%
Yuriy Zhuravlev0%
Anton Kovalev0%
Daniil Frolkin0%
Maksim Turishchev0%
Abdula Bagamaev0%
Matvey Bardachev0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Belajdi Pusi20%
Nikolay Giorgobiani17%
Darko Todorović0%
Igor Yurganov0%
Ilnur Alshin0%
Vyacheslav Yakimov0%
Ravil Netfullin0%
Alexey Sutormin0%
Yuriy Zhuravlev0%
Butta Magomedov0%
Anton Kovalev0%
Daniil Frolkin0%
Maksim Turishchev0%
Albert Gabaraev0%
Abdula Bagamaev0%
Matvey Bardachev0%
Axel Gnapi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Vyacheslav Yakimov17%
Darko Todorović0%
Belajdi Pusi0%
Igor Yurganov0%
Ilnur Alshin0%
Ravil Netfullin0%
Alexey Sutormin0%
Yuriy Zhuravlev0%
Nikolay Giorgobiani0%
Butta Magomedov0%
Anton Kovalev0%
Daniil Frolkin0%
Maksim Turishchev0%
Albert Gabaraev0%
Abdula Bagamaev0%
Matvey Bardachev0%
Axel Gnapi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (26)
€17m
FAK (26)
€14m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
CHE (23)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SK (27)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
VU (24)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
Fakel's squad is €7m more valuable than Volga Ulyanovsk's (€14m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (11)
€7m
TM (10)
€5m
FAK (10)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
CHE (9)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
SK (8)
€3m
VU (9)
€2m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
Fakel's attack is €3m more valuable than Volga Ulyanovsk's (€5m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (4)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FAK (4)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
SK (7)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
VU (5)
€1m
CHE (2)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
Fakel and Volga Ulyanovsk have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAK (12)
€7m
RM (11)
€7m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
SK (12)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
CHE (12)
€3m
AT (10)
€3m
VU (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
Fakel's defence is €4m more valuable than Volga Ulyanovsk's (€7m vs €3m).
Russia: First League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Rodina Moskva
Ural
Rotor Volgograd
KAMAZ
Spartak Kostroma
Enisey
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Torpedo Moskva
Chelyabinsk
FK Neftekhimik
Arsenal Tula
Ska-khabarovsk
FC UFA
Chernomorets
FK Sokol Saratov
Chayka