The model favours an away win, with a 45% chance for FC National Ialoveni, a 29% chance for Fălești and a 26% chance of a draw. The expected total of 3.1 goals points to a lively encounter, yet the most likely total is two goals, with a 23% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.8% chance. Fălești, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. FC National Ialoveni, on the road, averages 2.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded against similar opposition, suggesting a potent attack and a tight defence. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.6%), Under 6.5 (96.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.0%), Under 5.5 (90.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (90.3%), Away +2 handicap (86.6%), Home under 2.5 goals (84.3%) and Over 1.5 (82.4%). The home win probability is 29%, the draw 26% and the away win 45%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Făleşti win
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC National Ialoveni win
45.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Făleşti
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
2.17
1.07
2.13
0.93
2.20
vs Stronger (14)
0.71
3.00
0.62
2.75
0.83
3.33
vs Similar (14)
1.21
1.50
1.60
1.60
1.00
1.44
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
1.50
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (FC National Ialoveni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC National Ialoveni
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.75
1.00
0.00
1.50
1.50
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (3)
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.50
2.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
25% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Făleşti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.4%
Under 1.5
17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.6%
Under 2.5
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.2%
Under 3.5
62.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
62.2%
No
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
1-2
9.2%
2-1
7.3%
0-1
6.8%
0-2
6.8%
2-2
6.3%
0-0
5.6%
1-3
5.3%
Făleşti goals ↓
FC National Ialoveni goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
6.8%
6.8%
3.9%
1.7%
1
5.1%
12%
9.2%
5.3%
2.3%
2
4.2%
7.3%
6.3%
3.6%
1.6%
3
1.9%
3.3%
2.9%
1.6%
0.7%
4
0.7%
1.1%
1.0%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Făleşti goals (down), columns = FC National Ialoveni goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Stăuceni
2.53
Floreşti
2.07
Spartanii Selemet
1.94
FCM Ungheni
1.91
Iskra
1.80
Univer Comrat
1.73
Zimbru II
1.64
FC National Ialoveni
1.49
Vulturii Cutezători
1.49
Oguzsport
0.86
Făleşti
0.73
Victoria Bardar
0.68
Făleşti is 0.77 points worse than FC National Ialoveni in terms of average points per game (0.73 vs 1.49).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Stăuceni
3.00
Floreşti
2.87
FCM Ungheni
2.59
Spartanii Selemet
2.53
Univer Comrat
2.00
FC National Ialoveni
1.95
Vulturii Cutezători
1.95
Iskra
1.93
Zimbru II
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.23
Făleşti
1.14
Oguzsport
1.09
Făleşti is 0.81 goals worse than FC National Ialoveni in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.95).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Stăuceni
0.80
Floreşti
0.87
Spartanii Selemet
1.37
FCM Ungheni
1.55
Zimbru II
1.59
Oguzsport
1.64
Univer Comrat
1.68
FC National Ialoveni
1.78
Vulturii Cutezători
1.78
Iskra
1.93
Făleşti
2.55
Victoria Bardar
2.91
Făleşti is 0.77 goals worse than FC National Ialoveni in terms of goals conceded per game (2.55 vs 1.78).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Făleşti or Draw
55.0%
Avg Implied -
29%
26%
45%
covers Făleşti + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Făleşti or FC National Ialoveni
74.4%
Avg Implied -
29%
26%
45%
covers Făleşti + FC National Ialoveni
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FC National Ialoveni
70.6%
Avg Implied -
29%
26%
45%
covers Draw + FC National Ialoveni
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Făleşti over/under 0.5
Over
74.4%
Under
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 1.5
Over
39.5%
Under
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 2.5
Over
15.7%
Under
84.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 3.5
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC National Ialoveni over/under 0.5
Over
82.2%
Under
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC National Ialoveni over/under 1.5
Over
51.4%
Under
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC National Ialoveni over/under 2.5
Over
24.9%
Under
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC National Ialoveni over/under 3.5
Over
9.7%
Under
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Făleşti, so a minus line means Făleşti give that many goals of a start and FC National Ialoveni receive them. At -1, Făleşti must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Făleşti win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Făleşti)
Făleşti -2
4.7%
Draw -2
8.7%
FC National Ialoveni +2
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Făleşti)
Făleşti -1
13.4%
Draw -1
15.9%
FC National Ialoveni +1
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Făleşti)
Făleşti +1
55.0%
Draw +1
20.5%
FC National Ialoveni -1
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Făleşti)
Făleşti +2
75.5%
Draw +2
13.9%
FC National Ialoveni -2
10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Făleşti
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.03
0.40
1.00
0.47
1.07
vs Stronger (14)
0.21
1.29
0.25
1.25
0.17
1.33
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.86
0.80
0.80
0.67
0.89
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (FC National Ialoveni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC National Ialoveni
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.25
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (3)
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
75% (+53pp vs league)
This opponent (Făleşti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Făleşti over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC National Ialoveni over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC National Ialoveni over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC National Ialoveni over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Făleşti
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.13
0.67
1.13
0.47
1.13
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
1.71
0.38
1.50
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.64
0.80
0.80
0.33
0.56
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
1.50
0.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (FC National Ialoveni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC National Ialoveni
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.25
0.75
0.00
1.50
0.50
0.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.50
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Făleşti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Făleşti over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC National Ialoveni over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC National Ialoveni over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC National Ialoveni over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Moldova: Liga 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vulturii Cutezători
Iskra
FCM Ungheni
Oguzsport
Univer Comrat
FC Stăuceni
Victoria Bardar
Zimbru II
Spartanii Selemet
Floreşti