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Făleşti vs Floreşti Prediction & Stats

Date: 04/09/2026
Time: 14:00
Făleşti
Făleşti
Vs
25%
28%
47%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Floreşti
Floreşti
Moldova: Liga 1
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Florești are tipped to lift the Moldovan Liga 1 title from the front, with the model picking an away win as the most likely outcome. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a compact affair, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 13.2% chance. Fălești, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Florești, on the road against a stronger opponent, averages 1.71 scored and 1.21 conceded. The home win probability sits at 25%, the draw at 28%, and the away win at 47%. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.9%), Under 6.5 (98.1%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.5%), Under 5.5 (94.7%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (92.8%), and Away under 3.5 goals (92.6%). Fălești entered the match after a defeat to FC Stăuceni, whereas Florești remain unbeaten in their last five, adding intrigue to this tightly contested fixture.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Făleşti win
25.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Floreşti win
47.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FăleştiFăleşti

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-413L10W40W00D11D03L10W00D10W12LH·UNI21/03A·ZIM03/04H·OLI11/04H·SHE17/04A·OGU24/04A·SPA16/05H·VIC08/08A·OGU14/08A·FC 22/08H·FC 29/08← Super LigaLiga 1 →
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.002.171.072.130.932.20
vs Stronger (14)0.713.000.622.750.833.33
vs Similar (14)1.211.501.601.601.001.44
vs Weaker (2)1.501.001.501.00--
Clean sheet %27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Floreşti) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FloreştiFloreşti

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W02L11D12L01L00D11D54W41W00DH·FC 03/04A·POL11/04A·ISK17/04H·SPA25/04A·SIR02/05A·FC 05/05H·POL09/05H·FCM16/05A·SPA20/05A·SIR27/05← Super LigaLiga 1 →
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.071.172.431.071.751.25
vs Stronger (26)2.001.082.330.921.711.21
vs Similar (4)2.501.753.002.002.001.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Făleşti) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.5%
Under 1.5
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.5%
Under 2.5
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.6%
Under 3.5
72.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.8%
No
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
0-1
9.8%
1-2
9.4%
0-2
8.6%
0-0
8.2%
2-1
6.6%
1-0
6.5%
2-2
5.1%
Făleşti goals ↓
Floreşti goals →
01234
08.2%9.8%8.6%4.5%1.7%
16.5%13%9.4%4.9%1.9%
24.2%6.6%5.1%2.7%1.0%
31.5%2.4%1.9%1.0%0.4%
40.4%0.7%0.5%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Făleşti goals (down), columns = Floreşti goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Stăuceni
2.53
Floreşti
2.07
Spartanii Selemet
1.94
FCM Ungheni
1.91
Iskra
1.80
Univer Comrat
1.73
Zimbru II
1.64
FC National Ialoveni
1.49
Vulturii Cutezători
1.49
Oguzsport
0.86
Făleşti
0.73
Victoria Bardar
0.68
Făleşti is 1.34 points worse than Floreşti in terms of average points per game (0.73 vs 2.07).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Stăuceni
3.00
Floreşti
2.87
FCM Ungheni
2.59
Spartanii Selemet
2.53
Univer Comrat
2.00
FC National Ialoveni
1.95
Vulturii Cutezători
1.95
Iskra
1.93
Zimbru II
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.23
Făleşti
1.14
Oguzsport
1.09
Făleşti is 1.73 goals worse than Floreşti in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 2.87).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Stăuceni
0.80
Floreşti
0.87
Spartanii Selemet
1.37
FCM Ungheni
1.55
Zimbru II
1.59
Oguzsport
1.64
Univer Comrat
1.68
FC National Ialoveni
1.78
Vulturii Cutezători
1.78
Iskra
1.93
Făleşti
2.55
Victoria Bardar
2.91
Făleşti is 1.68 goals worse than Floreşti in terms of goals conceded per game (2.55 vs 0.87).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Făleşti or Draw
53.0%
Avg Implied -
25%
28%
47%
covers Făleşti + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Făleşti or Floreşti
72.4%
Avg Implied -
25%
28%
47%
covers Făleşti + Floreşti
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Floreşti
74.6%
Avg Implied -
25%
28%
47%
covers Draw + Floreşti
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Făleşti over/under 0.5
Over
66.5%
Under
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 1.5
Over
29.9%
Under
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 2.5
Over
9.8%
Under
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 3.5
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floreşti over/under 0.5
Over
79.0%
Under
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floreşti over/under 1.5
Over
46.3%
Under
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floreşti over/under 2.5
Over
20.7%
Under
79.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floreşti over/under 3.5
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Făleşti, so a minus line means Făleşti give that many goals of a start and Floreşti receive them. At -1, Făleşti must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Făleşti win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Făleşti)
Făleşti -2
3.0%
Draw -2
7.2%
Floreşti +2
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Făleşti)
Făleşti -1
10.2%
Draw -1
15.2%
Floreşti +1
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Făleşti)
Făleşti +1
53.0%
Draw +1
22.2%
Floreşti -1
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Făleşti)
Făleşti +2
75.3%
Draw +2
14.6%
Floreşti -2
10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FăleştiFăleşti

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L10W30W00D11D01L00D00D00D02LH·UNI21/03A·ZIM03/04H·OLI11/04H·SHE17/04A·OGU24/04A·SPA16/05H·VIC08/08A·OGU14/08A·FC 22/08H·FC 29/08← Super LigaLiga 1 →
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.431.030.401.000.471.07
vs Stronger (14)0.211.290.251.250.171.33
vs Similar (14)0.710.860.800.800.670.89
vs Weaker (2)0.000.500.000.50--
Clean sheet %40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Floreşti) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FloreştiFloreşti

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L01L12L00D00D10W03L10W00DH·FC 03/04A·POL11/04A·ISK17/04H·SPA25/04A·SIR02/05A·FC 05/05H·POL09/05H·FCM16/05A·SPA20/05A·SIR27/05← Super LigaLiga 1 →
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.700.930.710.690.69
vs Stronger (26)0.850.621.080.580.640.64
vs Similar (4)0.501.250.001.501.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Făleşti) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.8%
Under 0.5
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.1%
Under 1.5
58.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.1%
Under 2.5
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Făleşti over/under 0.5 HT
Over
40.3%
Under
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.4%
Under
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floreşti over/under 0.5 HT
Over
59.3%
Under
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floreşti over/under 1.5 HT
Over
24.0%
Under
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floreşti over/under 2.5 HT
Over
8.2%
Under
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FăleştiFăleşti

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D10W00D00D02L10W00D10W10WH·UNI21/03A·ZIM03/04H·OLI11/04H·SHE17/04A·OGU24/04A·SPA16/05H·VIC08/08A·OGU14/08A·FC 22/08H·FC 29/08← Super LigaLiga 1 →
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.571.130.671.130.471.13
vs Stronger (14)0.501.710.381.500.672.00
vs Similar (14)0.500.640.800.800.330.56
vs Weaker (2)1.500.501.500.50--
Clean sheet %43% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Floreşti) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FloreştiFloreşti

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W01L10W00D01L00D01L51W31W00DH·FC 03/04A·POL11/04A·ISK17/04H·SPA25/04A·SIR02/05A·FC 05/05H·POL09/05H·FCM16/05A·SPA20/05A·SIR27/05← Super LigaLiga 1 →
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.270.471.500.361.060.56
vs Stronger (26)1.150.461.250.331.070.57
vs Similar (4)2.000.503.000.501.000.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Făleşti) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
82.8%
Under 0.5
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
52.6%
Under 1.5
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
25.1%
Under 2.5
74.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Făleşti over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.5%
Under
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.7%
Under
86.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floreşti over/under 0.5 2H
Over
68.5%
Under
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floreşti over/under 1.5 2H
Over
29.3%
Under
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floreşti over/under 2.5 2H
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.4%-------
Home under 2.5 HT goals98.5%-------
Under 6.598.1%-------
Home under 2.5 2H goals97.9%-------
Home under 3.5 goals97.5%-------
Under 5.594.7%-------
Away under 3.5 goals92.6%-------
Away under 2.5 HT goals91.8%-------
Home under 1.5 HT goals91.6%-------
Home under 2.5 goals90.2%-------
Away +2 handicap89.8%-------
Away under 2.5 2H goals89.6%-------
Under 4.586.9%-------
Home under 1.5 2H goals86.3%-------
Under 2.5 HT goals82.9%-------
Over 0.5 2H goals82.8%-------
Over 0.5 HT goals79.8%-------
Away under 2.5 goals79.3%-------
Away over 0.5 goals79.0%-------
Away under 1.5 HT goals76.0%-------
Over 1.575.5%-------
Home +2 handicap75.3%-------
Under 2.5 2H goals74.9%-------
Draw or Away74.6%-------
Away +1 handicap74.6%-------
Under 3.572.4%-------
Home or Away72.4%-------
Away under 1.5 2H goals70.7%-------
Home under 1.5 goals70.1%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SS (12)
€1m
FU (2)
€0m
ZI (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SS (4)
€0m
ZI (1)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SS (4)
€0m
ZI (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SS (4)
€0m
FU (2)
€0m
ZI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
4
FĂL wins
0
Draws
3
FLO wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Făleşti vs Floreşti · H/A from FĂL
DateH/AGameScore
17/05/25HFĂL Vs Floreşti2-0
03/05/25AFloreşti Vs FĂL1-9
29/03/25HFĂL Vs Floreşti1-0
06/05/23HFĂL Vs Floreşti1-3
07/04/23AFloreşti Vs FĂL7-0
22/10/22HFĂL Vs Floreşti1-2
09/09/22AFloreşti Vs FĂL1-3

FăleştiFăleşti

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HFĂL Vs FC Stăuceni1-2
22/08/26AFC National Ialoveni Vs FĂL0-1
14/08/26AOguzsport Vs FĂL0-0
08/08/26HFĂL Vs Victoria Bardar1-0
16/05/26ASpartanii Selemet Vs FĂL3-0
24/04/26AOguzsport Vs FĂL1-1
17/04/26HFĂL Vs Sheriff II0-0
11/04/26HFĂL Vs Olimp Comrat4-0
03/04/26AZimbru II Vs FĂL0-1
21/03/26HFĂL Vs Univer Comrat1-3

FloreştiFloreşti

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/05/26ASireți Vs FLO0-0
20/05/26ASpartanii Selemet Vs FLO1-4
16/05/26HFLO Vs FCM Ungheni5-4
09/05/26HFLO Vs Politehnica UTM1-1
05/05/26AFC Stăuceni Vs FLO0-0
02/05/26ASireți Vs FLO1-0
25/04/26HFLO Vs Spartanii Selemet1-2
17/04/26AIskra Vs FLO1-1
11/04/26APolitehnica UTM Vs FLO2-0
03/04/26HFLO Vs FC Stăuceni1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Făleşti
Făleşti
Moldova: Liga 1
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDWL0.94
HomeLWDWL0.84
AwayWDLDW1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%24%32%
AVG goals3.503.243.76
Over 1.5 %82%80%84%
Over 2.5 %64%68%60%
Over 3.5 %44%40%48%
Scored1.160.961.36
Conceded2.342.282.40
BTTS40%32%48%
Clean Sheet22%28%16%
Corners---
Cards---
Floreşti
Floreşti
Moldova: Liga 1
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWWD0.96
HomeLWLDW1.12
AwayDLDWD0.81
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%33%19%
AVG goals4.223.924.50
Over 1.5 %84%92%77%
Over 2.5 %64%75%54%
Over 3.5 %50%46%54%
Scored1.281.461.12
Conceded2.942.463.38
BTTS38%38%38%
Clean Sheet16%21%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Vulturii CutezătoriVulturii Cutezători513
80%
2.6
208+12
5.6
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0004.01.6
-
2IskraIskra512
80%
2.4
186+12
4.8
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.61.2
-
3FCM UngheniFCM Ungheni57
40%
1.4
1310+3
4.6
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.62.0
-
4OguzsportOguzsport47
50%
1.8
31+2
1.0
25%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.80.2
-
5Univer ComratUniver Comrat57
40%
1.4
1514+1
5.8
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.02.8
-
6FC StăuceniFC Stăuceni47
50%
1.8
65+1
2.8
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
7FăleştiFăleşti47
50%
1.8
32+1
1.2
25%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.80.5
-
8FC National IaloveniFC National Ialoveni44
25%
1.0
34-1
1.8
75%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.0
-
9Victoria BardarVictoria Bardar43
25%
0.8
36-3
2.2
50%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.5
-
10Zimbru IIZimbru II53
20%
0.6
914-5
4.6
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.8
-
11Spartanii SelemetSpartanii Selemet51
0%
0.2
427-23
6.2
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.85.4
-
12FloreştiFloreşti00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
Moldova: Liga 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →

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