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Făleşti vs Victoria Bardar Result & Analysis

Date: 08/08/2026
Time: 15:00
Final 1-0
Făleşti
Făleşti
Vs
41%
23%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Victoria Bardar
Victoria Bardar
Moldova: Liga 1
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

In the Moldova: Liga 1 matchup between Fălești and Victoria Bardar, recent form suggests a storyline of teams struggling to find consistency, with Fălești coming off a defeat and Victoria Bardar after two straight defeats. However, the attacking and defensive numbers indicate a high-scoring match, with Fălești averaging 0.77 goals scored at home and 2.77 conceded, while Victoria Bardar averages 2.5 goals scored away and 1.75 conceded against weaker opponents.

Fălești is the favourite to win, with a 41% chance of victory, followed by a 36% chance of Victoria Bardar winning and a 23% chance of a draw. The expected total goals is 3.9, with the most likely total being 3 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 8.5%.

Fălești's home scoring and conceding averages are 0.77 and 2.77, respectively, while Victoria Bardar's away scoring and conceding averages are 2.5 and 1.75. The model's selection is Over 1.5, with a 90.7% probability, Over 2.5 with a 74.4% probability, and BTTS Yes with a 74.1% probability. The home win percentage is 41%, the draw percentage is 23%, and the away win percentage is 36%.

Results analysis

The win extends Fălești's run, having previously come off a win. The final score was 1-0 in favor of Fălești, resulting in a home win. The model's selection, Fălești to win, was the pre-match favorite with a 41% probability of winning. The model's call was correct. The model suggested Over 1.5 goals with a 90.7% probability, but it missed. Over 2.5 goals was also suggested with a 74.4% probability, but it missed. BTTS Yes, with a 74.1% probability, was also suggested, but it missed. The expected total goals was 3.9, which was significantly lower than the actual total. The most likely total goals was 3, with a 20% probability, but the actual score was 1-0.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Făleşti win✓ Hit
41.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar win✗ Miss
36.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FăleştiFăleşti

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-737L32W12L21W13L10W40W00D11D03LH·FC 08/11A·OLI22/11H·FCM07/03A·VIC13/03H·UNI21/03A·ZIM03/04H·OLI11/04H·SHE17/04A·OGU24/04A·SPA16/05← Super LigaLiga 1 →
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.202.500.882.561.572.43
vs Stronger (14)0.643.070.502.880.833.33
vs Similar (13)1.152.231.172.671.141.86
vs Weaker (3)4.001.001.501.009.001.00
Clean sheet %17% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Victoria Bardar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Victoria BardarVictoria Bardar

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-621W21W12L02L00D26L43W11D11D01LA·OGU21/11A·ZIM06/03H·FĂL13/03A·SHE21/03H·OGU03/04A·FCM10/04A·OLI18/04H·UNI24/04A·FCM06/05H·OGU31/07← Super LigaLiga 1 →
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.402.571.202.471.602.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)1.202.070.882.121.572.00
vs Weaker (15)1.603.071.572.861.623.25
Clean sheet %10% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Făleşti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%15%20%3%06%116%220%320%415%520%6+
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
90.7%
Under 1.5
9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
74.4%
Under 2.5
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
54.3%
Under 3.5
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
74.1%
No
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
8.5%
2-1
7.8%
2-2
7.3%
1-2
7.3%
3-1
5.2%
3-2
4.9%
2-3
4.6%
1-3
4.6%
Făleşti goals ↓
Victoria Bardar goals →
01234
02.8%3.1%3.6%2.3%1.1%
13.3%8.5%7.3%4.6%2.2%
24.1%7.8%7.3%4.6%2.2%
32.7%5.2%4.9%3.1%1.4%
41.4%2.6%2.4%1.5%0.7%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Făleşti goals (down), columns = Victoria Bardar goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Stăuceni
2.53
Floreşti
2.07
Spartanii Selemet
1.94
FCM Ungheni
1.91
Iskra
1.80
Univer Comrat
1.73
Zimbru II
1.64
FC National Ialoveni
1.49
Vulturii Cutezători
1.49
Oguzsport
0.86
Făleşti
0.73
Victoria Bardar
0.68
Făleşti is 0.05 points better than Victoria Bardar in terms of average points per game (0.73 vs 0.68).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Stăuceni
3.00
Floreşti
2.87
FCM Ungheni
2.59
Spartanii Selemet
2.53
Univer Comrat
2.00
FC National Ialoveni
1.95
Vulturii Cutezători
1.95
Iskra
1.93
Zimbru II
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.23
Făleşti
1.14
Oguzsport
1.09
Făleşti is 0.09 goals worse than Victoria Bardar in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.23).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Stăuceni
0.80
Floreşti
0.87
Spartanii Selemet
1.37
FCM Ungheni
1.55
Zimbru II
1.59
Oguzsport
1.64
Univer Comrat
1.68
FC National Ialoveni
1.78
Vulturii Cutezători
1.78
Iskra
1.93
Făleşti
2.55
Victoria Bardar
2.91
Făleşti is 0.36 goals better than Victoria Bardar in terms of goals conceded per game (2.55 vs 2.91).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FăleştiFăleşti

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D21W01L20W03L10W30W00D11D01LH·FC 08/11A·OLI22/11H·FCM07/03A·VIC13/03H·UNI21/03A·ZIM03/04H·OLI11/04H·SHE17/04A·OGU24/04A·SPA16/05← Super LigaLiga 1 →
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.571.130.381.120.791.14
vs Stronger (14)0.211.290.251.250.171.33
vs Similar (13)0.771.150.671.170.861.14
vs Weaker (3)1.330.330.000.504.000.00
Clean sheet %33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Victoria Bardar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Victoria BardarVictoria Bardar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W21W02L01L00D12L30W10W11D01LA·OGU21/11A·ZIM06/03H·FĂL13/03A·SHE21/03H·OGU03/04A·FCM10/04A·OLI18/04H·UNI24/04A·FCM06/05H·OGU31/07← Super LigaLiga 1 →
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.571.270.271.400.871.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.530.930.251.380.860.43
vs Weaker (15)0.601.600.291.430.881.75
Clean sheet %30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Făleşti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Făleşti over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FăleştiFăleşti

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-515L11D11D01L10W00D10W00D00D02LH·FC 08/11A·OLI22/11H·FCM07/03A·VIC13/03H·UNI21/03A·ZIM03/04H·OLI11/04H·SHE17/04A·OGU24/04A·SPA16/05← Super LigaLiga 1 →
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.370.501.440.791.29
vs Stronger (14)0.431.790.251.620.672.00
vs Similar (13)0.381.080.501.500.290.71
vs Weaker (3)2.670.671.500.505.001.00
Clean sheet %30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Victoria Bardar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Victoria BardarVictoria Bardar

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D00D10W01L00D14L13L01L00D00DA·OGU21/11A·ZIM06/03H·FĂL13/03A·SHE21/03H·OGU03/04A·FCM10/04A·OLI18/04H·UNI24/04A·FCM06/05H·OGU31/07← Super LigaLiga 1 →
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.300.931.070.731.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.671.130.620.750.711.57
vs Weaker (15)1.001.471.291.430.751.50
Clean sheet %30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Făleşti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Făleşti over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.590.7%-------✗ Miss
Over 2.574.4%-------✗ Miss
BTTS Yes74.1%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SS (12)
€1m
FU (2)
€0m
ZI (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SS (4)
€0m
ZI (1)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SS (4)
€0m
ZI (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SS (4)
€0m
FU (2)
€0m
ZI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
1
FĂL wins
0
Draws
5
VB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Făleşti vs Victoria Bardar · H/A from FĂL
DateH/AGameScore
13/03/26AVictoria Bardar Vs FĂL1-2
25/04/25HFĂL Vs Victoria Bardar0-4
14/03/25AVictoria Bardar Vs FĂL5-1
14/05/23AVictoria Bardar Vs FĂL6-2
21/04/23HFĂL Vs Victoria Bardar1-5
11/03/23AVictoria Bardar Vs FĂL3-1

FăleştiFăleşti

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/05/26ASpartanii Selemet Vs FĂL3-0
24/04/26AOguzsport Vs FĂL1-1
17/04/26HFĂL Vs Sheriff II0-0
11/04/26HFĂL Vs Olimp Comrat4-0
03/04/26AZimbru II Vs FĂL0-1
21/03/26HFĂL Vs Univer Comrat1-3
13/03/26AVictoria Bardar Vs FĂL1-2
07/03/26HFĂL Vs FCM Ungheni1-2
22/11/25AOlimp Comrat Vs FĂL2-3
08/11/25HFĂL Vs FC Stăuceni3-7

Victoria BardarVictoria Bardar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
31/07/26HVB Vs Oguzsport0-1
06/05/26AFCM Ungheni Vs VB1-1
24/04/26HVB Vs Univer Comrat1-1
18/04/26AOlimp Comrat Vs VB3-4
10/04/26AFCM Ungheni Vs VB6-2
03/04/26HVB Vs Oguzsport0-0
21/03/26ASheriff II Vs VB2-0
13/03/26HVB Vs Făleşti1-2
06/03/26AZimbru II Vs VB1-2
21/11/25AOguzsport Vs VB1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Făleşti
Făleşti
Moldova: Liga 1
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDDL0.92
HomeLLLWD0.84
AwayWWWDL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%24%32%
AVG goals3.643.363.92
Over 1.5 %88%84%92%
Over 2.5 %66%68%64%
Over 3.5 %46%44%48%
Scored1.201.001.40
Conceded2.442.362.52
BTTS42%32%52%
Clean Sheet16%24%8%
Corners---
Cards---
Victoria Bardar
Victoria Bardar
Moldova: Liga 1
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDDL1.24
HomeLLDDL1.20
AwayWLLWD1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%36%40%
AVG goals4.184.244.12
Over 1.5 %88%84%92%
Over 2.5 %78%76%80%
Over 3.5 %60%56%64%
Scored1.982.201.76
Conceded2.202.042.36
BTTS66%72%60%
Clean Sheet10%8%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Vulturii CutezătoriVulturii Cutezători513
80%
2.6
208+12
5.6
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0004.01.6
-
2IskraIskra512
80%
2.4
186+12
4.8
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.61.2
-
3FCM UngheniFCM Ungheni57
40%
1.4
1310+3
4.6
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.62.0
-
4OguzsportOguzsport47
50%
1.8
31+2
1.0
25%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.80.2
-
5Univer ComratUniver Comrat57
40%
1.4
1514+1
5.8
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.02.8
-
6FC StăuceniFC Stăuceni47
50%
1.8
65+1
2.8
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
7FăleştiFăleşti47
50%
1.8
32+1
1.2
25%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.80.5
-
8FC National IaloveniFC National Ialoveni44
25%
1.0
34-1
1.8
75%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.0
-
9Victoria BardarVictoria Bardar43
25%
0.8
36-3
2.2
50%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.5
-
10Zimbru IIZimbru II53
20%
0.6
914-5
4.6
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.8
-
11Spartanii SelemetSpartanii Selemet51
0%
0.2
427-23
6.2
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.85.4
-
12FloreştiFloreşti00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
Moldova: Liga 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →

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