In the Moldova: Liga 1 matchup between Fălești and Victoria Bardar, recent form suggests a storyline of teams struggling to find consistency, with Fălești coming off a defeat and Victoria Bardar after two straight defeats. However, the attacking and defensive numbers indicate a high-scoring match, with Fălești averaging 0.77 goals scored at home and 2.77 conceded, while Victoria Bardar averages 2.5 goals scored away and 1.75 conceded against weaker opponents.
Fălești is the favourite to win, with a 41% chance of victory, followed by a 36% chance of Victoria Bardar winning and a 23% chance of a draw. The expected total goals is 3.9, with the most likely total being 3 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 8.5%.
Fălești's home scoring and conceding averages are 0.77 and 2.77, respectively, while Victoria Bardar's away scoring and conceding averages are 2.5 and 1.75. The model's selection is Over 1.5, with a 90.7% probability, Over 2.5 with a 74.4% probability, and BTTS Yes with a 74.1% probability. The home win percentage is 41%, the draw percentage is 23%, and the away win percentage is 36%.
Results analysis
The win extends Fălești's run, having previously come off a win. The final score was 1-0 in favor of Fălești, resulting in a home win. The model's selection, Fălești to win, was the pre-match favorite with a 41% probability of winning. The model's call was correct. The model suggested Over 1.5 goals with a 90.7% probability, but it missed. Over 2.5 goals was also suggested with a 74.4% probability, but it missed. BTTS Yes, with a 74.1% probability, was also suggested, but it missed. The expected total goals was 3.9, which was significantly lower than the actual total. The most likely total goals was 3, with a 20% probability, but the actual score was 1-0.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Făleşti win✓ Hit
41.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar win✗ Miss
36.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Făleşti
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
2.50
0.88
2.56
1.57
2.43
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
3.07
0.50
2.88
0.83
3.33
vs Similar (13)
1.15
2.23
1.17
2.67
1.14
1.86
vs Weaker (3)
4.00
1.00
1.50
1.00
9.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Victoria Bardar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Victoria Bardar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
2.57
1.20
2.47
1.60
2.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.20
2.07
0.88
2.12
1.57
2.00
vs Weaker (15)
1.60
3.07
1.57
2.86
1.62
3.25
Clean sheet %
10% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Făleşti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
90.7%
Under 1.5
9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
74.4%
Under 2.5
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
54.3%
Under 3.5
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
74.1%
No
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
8.5%
2-1
7.8%
2-2
7.3%
1-2
7.3%
3-1
5.2%
3-2
4.9%
2-3
4.6%
1-3
4.6%
Făleşti goals ↓
Victoria Bardar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.8%
3.1%
3.6%
2.3%
1.1%
1
3.3%
8.5%
7.3%
4.6%
2.2%
2
4.1%
7.8%
7.3%
4.6%
2.2%
3
2.7%
5.2%
4.9%
3.1%
1.4%
4
1.4%
2.6%
2.4%
1.5%
0.7%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Făleşti goals (down), columns = Victoria Bardar goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Stăuceni
2.53
Floreşti
2.07
Spartanii Selemet
1.94
FCM Ungheni
1.91
Iskra
1.80
Univer Comrat
1.73
Zimbru II
1.64
FC National Ialoveni
1.49
Vulturii Cutezători
1.49
Oguzsport
0.86
Făleşti
0.73
Victoria Bardar
0.68
Făleşti is 0.05 points better than Victoria Bardar in terms of average points per game (0.73 vs 0.68).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Stăuceni
3.00
Floreşti
2.87
FCM Ungheni
2.59
Spartanii Selemet
2.53
Univer Comrat
2.00
FC National Ialoveni
1.95
Vulturii Cutezători
1.95
Iskra
1.93
Zimbru II
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.23
Făleşti
1.14
Oguzsport
1.09
Făleşti is 0.09 goals worse than Victoria Bardar in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.23).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Stăuceni
0.80
Floreşti
0.87
Spartanii Selemet
1.37
FCM Ungheni
1.55
Zimbru II
1.59
Oguzsport
1.64
Univer Comrat
1.68
FC National Ialoveni
1.78
Vulturii Cutezători
1.78
Iskra
1.93
Făleşti
2.55
Victoria Bardar
2.91
Făleşti is 0.36 goals better than Victoria Bardar in terms of goals conceded per game (2.55 vs 2.91).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Făleşti
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.13
0.38
1.12
0.79
1.14
vs Stronger (14)
0.21
1.29
0.25
1.25
0.17
1.33
vs Similar (13)
0.77
1.15
0.67
1.17
0.86
1.14
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
0.00
0.50
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Victoria Bardar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Victoria Bardar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.27
0.27
1.40
0.87
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.93
0.25
1.38
0.86
0.43
vs Weaker (15)
0.60
1.60
0.29
1.43
0.88
1.75
Clean sheet %
30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Făleşti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Făleşti over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Făleşti
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.37
0.50
1.44
0.79
1.29
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
1.79
0.25
1.62
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (13)
0.38
1.08
0.50
1.50
0.29
0.71
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
0.67
1.50
0.50
5.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Victoria Bardar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Victoria Bardar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.30
0.93
1.07
0.73
1.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.67
1.13
0.62
0.75
0.71
1.57
vs Weaker (15)
1.00
1.47
1.29
1.43
0.75
1.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Făleşti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Făleşti over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
BTTS Yes
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Moldova: Liga 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →