Falkenbergs FF enter the match after a 1-2 loss to IFK Norrköping, while IK Brage come off a 1-2 defeat to United Nordic. The model’s most confident pick is a home win, with probabilities of 38% for Falkenbergs, 28% for a draw and 34% for IK Brage. The expected total goals is 2.7, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13.4%. Falkenbergs, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, average 1.75 goals scored and 1.17 conceded, whereas IK Brage, away against a similar side, average 1.14 scored and 1.64 conceded. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 goals at 99.3%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.7% with a 4% edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.9% with a 6% edge, Under 6.5 at 97.8% with an 8% edge, Away under 3.5 goals at 95.5% with a 5% edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 95.2% with a 4% edge, Home under 3.5 goals at 94.5% with a 7% edge and Under 5.5 at 94.1% with a 7% edge.
Results analysis
The win extends Falkenbergs FF’s recent run, ending a mixed streak with a decisive 4-1 triumph over IK brage. The model’s pre-match favourite was a home win, with a 38% probability, and it proved correct. The match delivered a 4-1 scoreline, confirming the favoured result. The model’s selections performed largely well: Under 7.5 (99.3%) hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.6%) hit, Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.0%) hit, Under 6.5 (97.8%) hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.1%) hit, Away under 3.5 goals (95.5%) hit, Home under 3.5 goals (94.5%) missed, and Under 5.5 (94.1%) hit. All figures appear once, reflecting the model’s accurate predictions.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Falkenbergs FF win✓ Hit
38.1%
Avg Implied 45.8% · @ 2.01
Edge
-7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.07
10Bet
2.05
Dafabet
2.05
Superbet
2.05
Unibet
2.02
Draw✗ Miss
28.0%
Avg Implied 26.4% · @ 3.48
Edge
+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.70
Pinnacle
3.63
10Bet
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Dafabet
3.55
IK brage win✗ Miss
33.9%
Avg Implied 27.8% · @ 3.31
Edge
+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.61
Marathonbet
3.50
1xBet
3.45
BetVictor
3.40
Dafabet
3.35
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Falkenbergs FF
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.43
1.71
1.00
1.94
1.81
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
1.84
1.60
1.75
1.17
1.92
2.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.75
1.50
0.00
2.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (IK brage) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
IK brage
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.90
2.29
2.14
1.00
1.69
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.33
1.00
3.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
1.74
1.85
2.38
2.08
1.14
1.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Falkenbergs FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.9%
@ 1.19-1.2%
Under 1.5
23.1%
@ 4.24+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.4%
@ 1.65-5.3%
Under 2.5
48.6%
@ 2.16+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.69
1xBet
1.68
10Bet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Under
Unibet
2.23
Betfair
2.20
10Bet
2.20
Pinnacle
2.19
Bet365
2.15
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.3%
@ 2.57-6.9%
Under 3.5
70.7%
@ 1.45+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
2.70
10Bet
2.65
Pinnacle
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Under
Unibet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Betfair
1.47
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.6%
@ 1.54-3.3%
No
43.4%
@ 2.31+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
1xBet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
William Hil
1.55
BetVictor
1.55
No
Betfair
2.45
Unibet
2.40
Betano
2.32
Superbet
2.30
William Hil
2.30
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%@ 6.64+6.7%
2-1
8.6%@ 7.89+3.0%
1-2
8.0%@ 10.33+3.8%
1-0
8.0%@ 8.76+3.0%
0-0
7.7%@ 12.37+4.2%
0-1
7.4%@ 11.68+3.6%
2-0
6.5%@ 10.48+2.3%
0-2
5.7%@ 17.92+3.2%
Falkenbergs FF goals ↓
IK brage goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.7%
7.4%
5.7%
2.5%
0.8%
1
8.0%
13%
8.0%
3.5%
1.2%
2
6.5%
8.6%
5.6%
2.5%
0.8%
3
3.1%
4.0%
2.7%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.1%
1.4%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Falkenbergs FF goals (down), columns = IK brage goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
IFK Norrkoping
2.24
Falkenbergs FF
1.81
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.76
Ostersunds FK
1.67
Osters IF
1.57
United Nordic
1.52
Landskrona BoIS
1.48
Oddevold
1.38
Sandviken
1.29
Helsingborg
1.24
Ljungskile SK
1.14
Norrby IF
1.10
IFK Varnamo
1.05
IK brage
1.00
Orebro SK
0.95
GIF Sundsvall
0.62
Falkenbergs FF is 0.81 points better than IK brage in terms of average points per game (1.81 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Falkenbergs FF
1.95
IFK Norrkoping
1.95
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.81
IK brage
1.67
Sandviken
1.62
Oddevold
1.62
Helsingborg
1.62
United Nordic
1.52
Osters IF
1.52
Ostersunds FK
1.43
Ljungskile SK
1.29
Landskrona BoIS
1.29
Norrby IF
1.19
IFK Varnamo
1.19
Orebro SK
1.00
GIF Sundsvall
0.71
Falkenbergs FF is 0.29 goals better than IK brage in terms of goals scored per game (1.95 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
IFK Norrkoping
0.62
Landskrona BoIS
1.05
Ostersunds FK
1.10
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.29
Norrby IF
1.33
Ljungskile SK
1.33
United Nordic
1.43
Osters IF
1.43
Falkenbergs FF
1.43
Sandviken
1.48
Oddevold
1.48
Orebro SK
1.57
IFK Varnamo
1.81
Helsingborg
1.95
IK brage
2.00
GIF Sundsvall
2.10
Falkenbergs FF is 0.57 goals better than IK brage in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Landskrona BoIS
57%
Sandviken
55%
IFK Norrkoping
55%
IFK Varnamo
53%
Ostersunds FK
53%
Osters IF
50%
Orebro SK
50%
Falkenbergs FF
50%
Ljungskile SK
50%
Oddevold
50%
United Nordic
49%
IK brage
48%
Varbergs BoIS FC
47%
Helsingborg
44%
Norrby IF
44%
GIF Sundsvall
41%
Falkenbergs FF is 2.5 percentage points better than IK brage in terms of average possession (50% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Falkenbergs FF
For 4.7 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 0.7 · Total 1.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.6 · Against 12.2 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
IK brage
For 4.5 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 13.0 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Falkenbergs FF
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.0
9.3
0.8
0.7
0.9
22.5
20.8
24.0
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (40)
9.1
8.8
9.3
0.9
0.8
1.0
23.7
21.8
25.3
vs Weaker (9)
10.0
11.0
9.0
0.4
0.5
0.4
16.0
16.0
16.0
% over line
42%
56%
30%
8%
9%
7%
62%
50%
71%
% under line
58%
44%
70%
92%
91%
93%
38%
50%
29%
This opponent (IK brage) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
IK brage
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
8.8
9.0
1.6
1.7
1.6
24.0
24.6
23.3
vs Stronger (7)
10.7
11.0
10.5
2.1
3.0
1.8
21.0
24.0
19.5
vs Similar (43)
8.5
8.5
8.6
1.5
1.5
1.5
24.9
24.7
25.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
33%
33%
33%
24%
25%
23%
77%
71%
83%
% under line
67%
67%
67%
76%
75%
77%
23%
29%
17%
This opponent (Falkenbergs FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Osters IF
11.8
IFK Norrkoping
11.5
IFK Varnamo
11.0
Helsingborg
10.4
Landskrona BoIS
10.3
IK brage
10.3
Ljungskile SK
10.2
Varbergs BoIS FC
10.1
GIF Sundsvall
10.0
Sandviken
9.9
Oddevold
9.5
Ostersunds FK
9.4
Orebro SK
9.4
United Nordic
9.1
Norrby IF
9.0
Falkenbergs FF
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
IFK Norrkoping
4.2
Helsingborg
4.1
Landskrona BoIS
4.0
Osters IF
3.9
Ljungskile SK
3.8
Norrby IF
3.8
Varbergs BoIS FC
3.7
Orebro SK
3.7
IK brage
3.6
Ostersunds FK
3.4
IFK Varnamo
3.3
Sandviken
3.3
GIF Sundsvall
3.0
Oddevold
2.9
United Nordic
2.7
Falkenbergs FF
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
United Nordic
29.8
IFK Norrkoping
27.0
Ljungskile SK
26.6
Varbergs BoIS FC
26.6
Osters IF
25.2
Ostersunds FK
25.1
Norrby IF
24.3
Helsingborg
24.2
IK brage
24.1
Landskrona BoIS
23.9
Orebro SK
23.7
Sandviken
23.5
Falkenbergs FF
23.3
IFK Varnamo
22.8
Oddevold
21.4
GIF Sundsvall
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
45.4%
@ 1.76-7.3%
Under 9.5
54.6%
@ 1.96+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.91
Bet365
1.83
Unibet
1.81
Superbet
1.72
Betano
1.70
Under
1xBet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.05
Betano
2.05
Marathonbet
2.02
Superbet
2.00
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.0%
Under 3.5
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
68.3%
Under 21.5
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Falkenbergs FF or Draw✓ Hit
66.1%
Avg Implied 72.1% · @ 1.29
Edge
-5.9%
38%
28%
34%
covers Falkenbergs FF + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.33
BetVictor
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Falkenbergs FF or IK brage✓ Hit
72.0%
Avg Implied 74.0% · @ 1.26
Edge
-2.1%
38%
28%
34%
covers Falkenbergs FF + IK brage
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Draw or IK brage✗ Miss
61.9%
Avg Implied 53.9% · @ 1.73
Edge
+8.0%
38%
28%
34%
covers Draw + IK brage
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.79
Marathonbet
1.75
Betano
1.75
William Hil
1.75
Betfair
1.73
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Falkenbergs FF over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.6%
@ 1.16-4.6%
Under
24.4%
@ 4.69+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Under
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
4.75
Unibet
4.60
1xBet
4.60
Falkenbergs FF over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
41.2%
@ 1.82-9.8%
Under
58.8%
@ 1.90+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.86
Betano
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.98
Unibet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Betfair
1.91
Falkenbergs FF over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
16.9%
@ 3.58-9.0%
Under
83.1%
@ 1.25+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.80
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.65
Pinnacle
3.61
1xBet
3.56
Under
Pinnacle
1.28
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
Unibet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Falkenbergs FF over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
5.5%
@ 7.85-6.5%
Under
94.5%
@ 1.07+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.50
Betano
7.00
1xBet
6.90
Under
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
IK brage over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.3%
@ 1.30+2.1%
Under
26.7%
@ 3.22-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
Betano
1.31
Under
Unibet
3.35
Pinnacle
3.32
10Bet
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Betano
3.25
IK brage over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
38.0%
@ 2.50+0.7%
Under
62.0%
@ 1.48-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.66
Bet365
2.62
1xBet
2.56
Marathonbet
2.56
BetVictor
2.55
Under
Unibet
1.54
Betano
1.52
Betfair
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Superbet
1.49
IK brage over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.7%
@ 5.71-1.5%
Under
85.3%
@ 1.11+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.95
1xBet
5.95
BetVictor
5.75
Under
Unibet
1.13
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
IK brage over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.5%
@ 12.31-3.2%
Under
95.5%
@ 1.03+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Betano
10.25
1xBet
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Under
Betfair
1.03
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Falkenbergs FF, so a minus line means Falkenbergs FF give that many goals of a start and IK brage receive them. At -1, Falkenbergs FF must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Falkenbergs FF win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (IK brage) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
IK brage
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.83
0.79
1.14
0.31
0.56
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (27)
0.56
0.85
0.77
1.15
0.36
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Falkenbergs FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
68.7%
@ 1.30-2.5%
Under 0.5
31.3%
@ 3.23+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.40
William Hil
3.30
BetVictor
3.25
Superbet
3.25
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
33.8%
@ 2.39-4.9%
Under 1.5
66.2%
@ 1.51+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.48
Betano
2.47
1xBet
2.44
Marathonbet
2.41
Under
Unibet
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Betfair
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.6%
@ 5.62-3.9%
Under 2.5
87.4%
@ 1.11+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.50
Bet365
6.00
William Hil
5.80
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.45
Under
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Betfair
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Falkenbergs FF over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
52.7%
@ 1.73-0.8%
Under
47.3%
@ 2.00+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.80
Marathonbet
1.76
Pinnacle
1.75
Superbet
1.74
10Bet
1.73
Under
1xBet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.07
Unibet
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Superbet
1.97
Falkenbergs FF over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
17.2%
@ 4.74-2.3%
Under
82.8%
@ 1.15+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.85
Betano
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Under
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Falkenbergs FF over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.9%
@ 11.25-4.5%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.02+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
13.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
IK brage over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
36.7%
@ 2.12-7.2%
Under
63.3%
@ 1.65+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.24
Marathonbet
2.16
Betano
2.12
Superbet
2.12
1xBet
2.10
Under
Unibet
1.71
10Bet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.64
IK brage over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.6%
@ 6.62-6.4%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.08+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.40
10Bet
6.50
1xBet
6.50
Betano
6.10
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
IK brage over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.4%
@ 18.50-3.8%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.01+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Betano
11.00
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Falkenbergs FF
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.60
1.00
0.57
1.00
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
1.00
0.72
1.08
0.67
0.92
0.77
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (IK brage) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
IK brage
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.07
1.50
1.00
0.69
1.12
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.67
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (27)
1.19
1.00
1.62
0.92
0.79
1.07
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Falkenbergs FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
79.2%
@ 1.17+0.5%
Under 0.5
20.8%
@ 4.33-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Under
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.35
Marathonbet
4.35
Betano
4.30
1xBet
4.30
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
46.9%
@ 1.83-3.6%
Under 1.5
53.1%
@ 1.87+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.86
William Hil
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Under
Unibet
1.91
Betano
1.90
Marathonbet
1.87
1xBet
1.86
William Hil
1.85
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
20.1%
@ 3.60-5.6%
Under 2.5
79.9%
@ 1.24+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.52
1xBet
3.52
Under
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Falkenbergs FF over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
59.4%
@ 1.52-1.5%
Under
40.6%
@ 2.38+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.53
Superbet
1.53
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.51
Under
1xBet
2.40
10Bet
2.38
Betano
2.37
Superbet
2.35
Falkenbergs FF over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
23.8%
@ 3.41-3.3%
Under
76.2%
@ 1.27+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.55
1xBet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.40
Betano
3.30
Under
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Falkenbergs FF over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.8%
@ 8.53-3.1%
Under
92.2%
@ 1.04+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.30
10Bet
9.00
Betano
7.30
Under
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
IK brage over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
47.0%
@ 1.78-5.1%
Under
53.0%
@ 1.93+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.82
1xBet
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Under
10Bet
2.00
Betano
1.98
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.86
IK brage over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.9%
@ 4.84-7.2%
Under
88.1%
@ 1.14+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.20
1xBet
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Betano
4.40
Under
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
IK brage over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 11.12-6.4%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.02+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
13.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.5%
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.5%
1.07
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
-
+6.5%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
94.1%
1.05
10Bet
1.09
Betano
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Unibet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.4%
1.08
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
-
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.2%
1.04
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.1%
1.14
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
-
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.4%
1.11
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Betfair
1.11
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
85.8%
1.17
10Bet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.19
Betano
1.19
Unibet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
+5.9%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
85.3%
1.11
Unibet
1.13
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
84.4%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-2.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
83.1%
1.25
Pinnacle
1.28
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
Unibet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+9.0%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.8%
1.15
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
-
+2.3%
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
81.6%
1.24
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.25
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
+9.3%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.9%
1.24
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
+5.6%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.2%
1.17
William Hil
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.16
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
77.1%
1.37
Superbet
1.43
1xBet
1.37
Unibet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
-
+10.4%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.9%
1.19
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
76.2%
1.27
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
-
+3.3%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
75.6%
1.16
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
-4.6%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
73.3%
1.30
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
Betano
1.31
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.0%
1.26
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
-2.1%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.7%
1.45
Unibet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Betfair
1.47
+6.9%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Falkenbergs FF
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Oskar Lindberg33%
Albin Andersson33%
Melker Nilsson0%
Noel Hansson0%
Godwin Aguda0%
Tim Stalheden0%
Linus Borgström0%
Gustav Lillienberg0%
Hampus Kallstrom0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Godwin Aguda67%
Noel Hansson33%
Melker Nilsson0%
Oskar Lindberg0%
Tim Stalheden0%
Linus Borgström0%
Gustav Lillienberg0%
Hampus Kallstrom0%
Albin Andersson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Melker Nilsson67%
Albin Andersson33%
Noel Hansson0%
Godwin Aguda0%
Oskar Lindberg0%
Tim Stalheden0%
Linus Borgström0%
Gustav Lillienberg0%
Hampus Kallstrom0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Melker Nilsson0%
Noel Hansson0%
Godwin Aguda0%
Oskar Lindberg0%
Tim Stalheden0%
Linus Borgström0%
Gustav Lillienberg0%
Hampus Kallstrom0%
Albin Andersson0%
IK brage
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Felix Hörberg67%
Albin Sporrong33%
Gideon Granström33%
Alexander Zetterstrom0%
Pontus Jonsson0%
Anton Lundin0%
Viktor Frodig0%
Tobias Stagaard0%
Malte Persson0%
Gustav Berggren0%
Gustav Nordh0%
Anders Hellblom0%
Alex Mortensen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Anton Lundin67%
Alexander Zetterstrom33%
Tobias Stagaard33%
Gustav Berggren33%
Pontus Jonsson0%
Albin Sporrong0%
Felix Hörberg0%
Viktor Frodig0%
Malte Persson0%
Gustav Nordh0%
Gideon Granström0%
Anders Hellblom0%
Alex Mortensen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexander Zetterstrom33%
Anton Lundin33%
Albin Sporrong33%
Gustav Berggren33%
Pontus Jonsson0%
Felix Hörberg0%
Viktor Frodig0%
Tobias Stagaard0%
Malte Persson0%
Gustav Nordh0%
Gideon Granström0%
Anders Hellblom0%
Alex Mortensen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Alex Mortensen33%
Alexander Zetterstrom0%
Pontus Jonsson0%
Anton Lundin0%
Albin Sporrong0%
Felix Hörberg0%
Viktor Frodig0%
Tobias Stagaard0%
Malte Persson0%
Gustav Berggren0%
Gustav Nordh0%
Gideon Granström0%
Anders Hellblom0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (25)
€9m
HEL (25)
€7m
LB (20)
€6m
VBF (24)
€6m
FF (19)
€5m
OI (23)
€5m
ODD (23)
€5m
IV (21)
€5m
OS (23)
€5m
IB (23)
€5m
SAN (20)
€4m
GS (22)
€4m
OF (21)
€4m
LS (22)
€3m
UN (17)
€3m
NI (17)
€3m
Falkenbergs FF and IK brage have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (8)
€3m
IV (7)
€2m
HEL (8)
€2m
FF (8)
€2m
LB (5)
€2m
VBF (7)
€2m
OI (7)
€2m
ODD (6)
€1m
SAN (5)
€1m
OS (6)
€1m
GS (8)
€1m
NI (6)
€1m
LS (7)
€1m
IB (5)
€1m
OF (5)
€1m
UN (4)
€0m
Falkenbergs FF's attack is €1m more valuable than IK brage's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (8)
€3m
HEL (7)
€2m
VBF (8)
€2m
LB (7)
€2m
OF (6)
€2m
OI (6)
€2m
IB (7)
€1m
ODD (7)
€1m
GS (5)
€1m
SAN (6)
€1m
OS (5)
€1m
LS (4)
€1m
UN (4)
€1m
IV (4)
€1m
FF (2)
€1m
NI (3)
€0m
Falkenbergs FF and IK brage have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (9)
€3m
FF (9)
€3m
OS (12)
€3m
ODD (10)
€3m
HEL (10)
€2m
LB (8)
€2m
IB (11)
€2m
VBF (9)
€2m
OI (10)
€2m
UN (9)
€2m
SAN (9)
€2m
IV (10)
€2m
OF (10)
€2m
GS (9)
€2m
LS (11)
€2m
NI (8)
€1m
Falkenbergs FF and IK brage have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Sweden: Superettan 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Sweden: Superettan stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
IFK Norrkoping
Varbergs BoIS FC
Ostersunds FK
Osters IF
United Nordic
Landskrona BoIS
Oddevold
Sandviken
Helsingborg
Ljungskile SK
Norrby IF
IFK Varnamo
Orebro SK
GIF Sundsvall