PythiaFootballBETA
Falkenbergs FF, coming off a defeat, hosts United Nordic, unbeaten in their last 5 matches. The home side has struggled to find consistency, scoring an average of 1.75 goals at home, while conceding 0.62. United Nordic, meanwhile, has been solid on the road, scoring 1 goal and conceding 1.29 against similar opponents.
The market expects a close match, with Falkenbergs FF favoured to win at 50%, followed by a draw at 28%, and United Nordic at 23%. The model agrees, selecting a home win as its top pick.
The expected total goals stand at 2.6, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 13.2%.
Falkenbergs FF is selected to have Under 3.5 cards at 72.2%, while United Nordic is selected to have Over 1.5 goals at 74.2%. The model also suggests Under 21.5 fouls at 89.9% and Under 3.5 at 73.9% with a 10% edge.
The probabilities for the match result are: home win 50%, draw 28%, and away win 23%.
Falkenbergs FF's unbeaten run in their last 5 matches came to an end with a 1-1 draw against United Nordic. The result was a surprise upset, especially considering the win would have extended their run. The pre-match favourite, Falkenbergs FF, failed to deliver, with the model's selection of a home win being incorrect. The model had given them a 50% chance of winning.
The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a 74.2% probability, while Under 3.5 goals also hit, with a 73.9% probability. The most likely total goals according to the model was 2, with a 26% probability. The most likely scores were 1-1, 1-0, and 2-1, with probabilities of 13.2%, 10.7%, and 9.5% respectively.
Falkenbergs FF| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.00 | 1.50 | 1.93 | 1.00 | 2.06 | 1.94 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 2.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 2.00 | 1.68 | 1.92 | 1.17 | 2.08 | 2.15 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 2.00 | 0.75 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
United Nordic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 1.42 | 1.90 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.47 | 1.42 | 1.90 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 26% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
| United Nordic goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.7% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 11% | 13% | 6.0% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 9.4% | 9.5% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 5.0% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Falkenbergs FFUnited NordicFalkenbergs FF| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 22.6 | 20.5 | 24.6 |
| vs Stronger (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (41) | 9.3 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 23.5 | 21.1 | 25.9 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 10.0 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 |
| % over line | 45% | 55% | 36% | 14% | 17% | 11% | 62% | 50% | 75% |
| % under line | 55% | 45% | 64% | 86% | 83% | 89% | 38% | 50% | 25% |
United Nordic| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (19) | 9.1 | 10.8 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 29.8 | 27.5 | 32.0 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 9.1 | 10.8 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 29.8 | 27.5 | 32.0 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 57% | 75% | 33% | 11% | 10% | 11% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| % under line | 43% | 25% | 67% | 89% | 90% | 89% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Falkenbergs FF| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.43 | 1.00 | 1.12 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.00 | 0.84 | 0.92 | 0.50 | 1.08 | 1.15 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.25 | 0.75 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
United Nordic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.58 | 0.70 | 0.60 | 0.22 | 0.56 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.47 | 0.58 | 0.70 | 0.60 | 0.22 | 0.56 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 58% (+33pp vs league) | |||||
Falkenbergs FF| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 0.70 | 0.93 | 0.57 | 1.06 | 0.81 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 2.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.00 | 0.84 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
United Nordic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 0.84 | 1.20 | 0.90 | 0.78 | 0.78 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.00 | 0.84 | 1.20 | 0.90 | 0.78 | 0.78 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 93.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 86.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 cards | 84.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 81.0% | 1.31 | 1.32 | 1.30 | 1.30 | - | - | +11.2% | - |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 75.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 74.2% | 1.19 | 1.22 | 1.21 | 1.21 | 1.20 | 1.20 | -3.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 73.9% | 1.45 | 1.53 | 1.48 | 1.47 | 1.47 | 1.47 | +9.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 10.5 corners | 71.4% | 1.53 | 1.58 | 1.55 | 1.53 | 1.52 | 1.48 | +11.3% | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 | A | 1-4 |
Falkenbergs FF| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 26/07/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 21/07/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 26/06/26 | A | 2-4 | |
| 21/06/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 14/06/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 09/06/26 | A | 4-2 | |
| 30/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 23/05/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 1-4 |
United Nordic| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 28/07/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 19/07/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 27/06/26 | H | 3-3 | |
| 21/06/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 16/06/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 09/06/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 31/05/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 23/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 1-4 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  IFK Norrkoping | 21 | 47 | 71% | 2.2 | 41 | 13 | +28 | 2.6 | 76% | 48% | 24% | 10.2 | 50% | 3.5 | 60% | 27.8 | 100% | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 55% |
| 2 | Falkenbergs FF | 21 | 38 | 52% | 1.8 | 41 | 30 | +11 | 3.4 | 90% | 71% | 43% | 9.0 | 40% | 1.8 | 10% | 20.3 | 67% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 3 |  Varbergs BoIS FC | 21 | 37 | 52% | 1.8 | 38 | 27 | +11 | 3.1 | 81% | 71% | 43% | 7.8 | 36% | 3.9 | 64% | 30.8 | 100% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 47% |
| 4 |  Ostersunds FK | 21 | 35 | 43% | 1.7 | 30 | 23 | +7 | 2.5 | 76% | 38% | 24% | 8.5 | 40% | 3.2 | 50% | 25.7 | 100% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 53% |
| 5 |  Osters IF | 21 | 33 | 48% | 1.6 | 32 | 30 | +2 | 3.0 | 71% | 62% | 38% | 11.8 | 89% | 2.9 | 33% | 24.5 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 6 | United Nordic | 21 | 32 | 38% | 1.5 | 32 | 30 | +2 | 3.0 | 86% | 48% | 38% | 10.1 | 62% | 2.9 | 38% | 29.8 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 7 |  Landskrona BoIS | 21 | 31 | 38% | 1.5 | 27 | 22 | +5 | 2.3 | 71% | 38% | 19% | 9.8 | 38% | 3.5 | 38% | 28.2 | 75% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 57% |
| 8 |  Oddevold | 21 | 29 | 33% | 1.4 | 34 | 31 | +3 | 3.1 | 76% | 62% | 48% | 10.1 | 50% | 2.4 | 22% | 25.4 | 100% | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 50% |
| 9 |  Sandviken | 21 | 27 | 33% | 1.3 | 34 | 31 | +3 | 3.1 | 76% | 62% | 38% | 9.6 | 33% | 2.4 | 11% | 23.0 | 67% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 55% |
| 10 |  Helsingborg | 20 | 25 | 35% | 1.2 | 33 | 40 | -7 | 3.6 | 95% | 70% | 50% | 9.8 | 75% | 5.0 | 80% | 26.0 | 100% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 45% |
| 11 |  Ljungskile SK | 21 | 24 | 29% | 1.1 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 2.6 | 62% | 48% | 38% | 10.2 | 60% | 3.9 | 55% | 26.6 | 100% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 12 |  Norrby IF | 20 | 23 | 20% | 1.1 | 25 | 27 | -2 | 2.6 | 80% | 45% | 35% | 7.3 | 33% | 2.3 | 33% | 21.5 | 50% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 44% |
| 13 |  IFK Varnamo | 21 | 22 | 29% | 1.0 | 25 | 38 | -13 | 3.0 | 71% | 57% | 43% | 8.4 | 30% | 3.1 | 30% | 24.3 | 67% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 53% |
| 14 |  IK brage | 21 | 21 | 24% | 1.0 | 35 | 42 | -7 | 3.7 | 81% | 76% | 52% | 8.7 | 33% | 4.0 | 60% | 27.3 | 100% | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 48% |
| 15 |  Orebro SK | 20 | 19 | 20% | 0.9 | 20 | 32 | -12 | 2.6 | 70% | 50% | 30% | 9.5 | 50% | 3.0 | 38% | 23.3 | 67% | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 50% |
| 16 |  GIF Sundsvall | 20 | 10 | 15% | 0.5 | 14 | 44 | -30 | 2.9 | 70% | 60% | 35% | 9.8 | 67% | 2.6 | 22% | 20.5 | 50% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 41% |