Rangers are the clear favourite, with a 50% chance of victory, a 29% chance of a draw and a 20% chance for Falkirk to win. The match is expected to see about 2.3 goals, most likely a 1-1 scoreline with a 13.6% probability. Falkirk, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Rangers, on the road against a weaker opponent, average 2.38 scored and 0.69 conceded. The model’s selection includes an 80.3% chance of Under 3.5 goals. Falkirk’s recent form is a 5-game stretch of LDLWD, coming off a defeat to Celtic, whereas Rangers are on a 5-game run of WLWWD, coming off a win over Aberdeen. The predicted outcome remains an away win for Rangers.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Falkirk overturned expectations, winning 3-2 to deny Rangers the predicted away triumph. The model had named Rangers the favourite with a 50% chance, but the result proved otherwise. The model’s single other selection, Under 3.5, missed with a 80.3% probability. Falkirk’s recent run of L D L W D left them rattled after a 1-2 loss to Celtic, while Rangers entered the match on a winning streak, having beaten Aberdeen 1-0. The final score of 3-2 gave Falkirk a home win, contradicting the model’s forecast and illustrating the volatility of Championship fixtures.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Falkirk win✓ Hit
20.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rangers win✗ Miss
50.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Falkirk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.62
0.76
1.79
0.50
1.47
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.67
2.00
1.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (19)
1.68
0.74
1.90
0.50
1.44
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
1.71
0.43
1.33
0.33
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
41% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rangers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.61
0.64
2.80
0.60
2.38
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (28)
2.61
0.64
2.80
0.60
2.38
0.69
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Falkirk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.8%
Under 1.5
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.0%
Under 2.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
19.7%
Under 3.5
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.5%
No
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
0-1
13.5%
0-0
11.4%
0-2
10.7%
1-2
8.9%
1-0
7.3%
0-3
5.2%
2-1
5.1%
Falkirk goals ↓
Rangers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
14%
11%
5.2%
1.9%
1
7.3%
14%
8.9%
4.3%
1.6%
2
3.5%
5.1%
3.7%
1.8%
0.7%
3
1.0%
1.4%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Falkirk goals (down), columns = Rangers goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rangers
2.25
Falkirk
1.94
Hibernian
1.94
Raith Rvs
1.72
Morton
1.19
Queen of Sth
1.17
ST Mirren
1.17
Dumbarton
1.03
Livingston
0.86
Alloa
0.58
Falkirk is 0.31 points worse than Rangers in terms of average points per game (1.94 vs 2.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.44
Falkirk
1.69
Hibernian
1.64
Raith Rvs
1.44
Queen of Sth
1.28
ST Mirren
1.22
Morton
1.08
Livingston
1.03
Dumbarton
0.97
Alloa
0.61
Falkirk is 0.75 goals worse than Rangers in terms of goals scored per game (1.69 vs 2.44).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Falkirk
0.94
Rangers
0.94
Hibernian
0.94
Morton
1.17
Raith Rvs
1.28
Livingston
1.42
ST Mirren
1.47
Queen of Sth
1.56
Dumbarton
1.83
Alloa
1.86
Falkirk and Rangers are level in goals conceded per game (both 0.94).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Falkirk
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Rangers
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Falkirk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (29)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (7)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rangers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (28)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (28)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Falkirk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Not collected for this league yet.
🟨 Total Cards
Not collected for this league yet.
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Falkirk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.34
0.93
0.36
0.73
0.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.37
0.90
0.30
0.56
0.44
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.14
1.00
0.33
1.25
0.00
Clean sheet %
69% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rangers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.18
0.32
1.27
0.40
1.08
0.23
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (28)
1.18
0.32
1.27
0.40
1.08
0.23
Clean sheet %
68% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Falkirk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Falkirk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Falkirk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.79
0.41
0.86
0.14
0.73
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (19)
0.95
0.37
1.00
0.20
0.89
0.56
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.29
0.33
0.00
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
62% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rangers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.32
1.53
0.20
1.31
0.46
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (28)
1.43
0.32
1.53
0.20
1.31
0.46
Clean sheet %
68% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Falkirk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Falkirk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Falkirk · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Scott Bain0%
Ryan Strain0%
Ethan Ross0%
Liam Henderson0%
Leon McCann0%
Ben Parkinson0%
Aodhan Doherty0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Leon McCann33%
Aodhan Doherty33%
Scott Bain0%
Ryan Strain0%
Ethan Ross0%
Liam Henderson0%
Ben Parkinson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Scott Bain0%
Ryan Strain0%
Ethan Ross0%
Liam Henderson0%
Leon McCann0%
Ben Parkinson0%
Aodhan Doherty0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ethan Ross33%
Scott Bain0%
Ryan Strain0%
Liam Henderson0%
Leon McCann0%
Ben Parkinson0%
Aodhan Doherty0%
Rangers · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Thelo Aasgaard33%
Lawrence Shankland20%
Ryan Don Naderi20%
Cameron Devlin0%
Ivor Pandur0%
Dan Neil0%
Dujon Sterling0%
James Penrice0%
Daisuke Yokota0%
Emmanuel Fernandez0%
Djeidi Gassama0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Olwethu Makhanya0%
Findlay Curtis0%
Vanja Dragojević0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dan Neil50%
Dujon Sterling50%
Vanja Dragojević33%
Cameron Devlin25%
Lawrence Shankland20%
Emmanuel Fernandez20%
Findlay Curtis20%
Ivor Pandur0%
James Penrice0%
Daisuke Yokota0%
Thelo Aasgaard0%
Ryan Don Naderi0%
Djeidi Gassama0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Olwethu Makhanya0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Daisuke Yokota25%
Cameron Devlin0%
Ivor Pandur0%
Dan Neil0%
Dujon Sterling0%
Lawrence Shankland0%
James Penrice0%
Thelo Aasgaard0%
Ryan Don Naderi0%
Emmanuel Fernandez0%
Djeidi Gassama0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Olwethu Makhanya0%
Findlay Curtis0%
Vanja Dragojević0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Thelo Aasgaard33%
Vanja Dragojević33%
Djeidi Gassama20%
Cameron Devlin0%
Ivor Pandur0%
Dan Neil0%
Dujon Sterling0%
Lawrence Shankland0%
James Penrice0%
Daisuke Yokota0%
Ryan Don Naderi0%
Emmanuel Fernandez0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Olwethu Makhanya0%
Findlay Curtis0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
HIB (27)
€20m
SM (24)
€8m
FAL (27)
€6m
LIV (25)
€4m
MOR (14)
€1m
DUM (1)
€0m
Falkirk's squad is €130m less valuable than Rangers's (€6m vs €136m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (9)
€38m
HIB (9)
€7m
FAL (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
Falkirk's attack is €36m less valuable than Rangers's (€2m vs €38m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
HIB (7)
€8m
SM (6)
€3m
LIV (8)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
Falkirk's midfield is €43m less valuable than Rangers's (€1m vs €44m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
HIB (11)
€5m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
LIV (10)
€1m
MOR (6)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
Falkirk's defence is €50m less valuable than Rangers's (€3m vs €54m).
Scotland: Championship 2015/16 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Hibernian
Morton
ST Mirren
Dumbarton
Livingston