Rangers, fresh from a 2-game winning streak, are the clear favourite to win at Falkirk, a side that has struggled to score at home against stronger opponents. The model gives Rangers a 62 % chance of victory, 20 % for a draw and 18 % for a Falkirk win, and picks an away win as the most likely outcome. The expected total of 3.7 goals points to a high-scoring affair, with the most probable scoreline 1-2 for Rangers at 9.3 %. Falkirk’s home form shows 1.5 goals scored and 3.5 conceded against stronger teams, while Rangers’ away form shows 1.82 goals scored and 1.27 conceded against weaker opposition. The suggested picks are: Over 1.5 goals 88.9 %, Over 19.5 fouls86.7 %, Over 2.5 cards82.2 %, Over 21.5 fouls75.3 % (miss), Under 11.5 corners71.5 %, Under 5.5 cards71.0 %, and Over 2.570.9 % with a 14 % edge.
Results analysis
The win extends Rangers’ two-game winning run, while Falkirk’s recent draw shows a fragile home form. The final score was 2-5, an away win that matched the model’s pick and its 62 % probability. The model’s selections largely came in: Over 1.5 goals at 88.9 % hit, Over 19.5 fouls at 86.7 % hit, Over 2.5 cards at 82.2 % hit, Under 11.5 corners at 71.5 % hit, Under 5.5 cards at 71.0 % hit, and the Over 2.5 goals at 70.9 % hit, while Over 21.5 fouls at 75.3 % missed. The most likely score of 1-2 at 9.3 % did not materialise, but the overall outcome aligned with the model’s forecast.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Falkirk win✗ Miss
18.2%
Avg Implied 24.2% · @ 3.82
Edge
-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.2%
Avg Implied 24.6% · @ 3.76
Edge
-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rangers win✓ Hit
61.6%
Avg Implied 51.1% · @ 1.81
Edge
+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Falkirk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.30
1.57
1.50
1.00
1.12
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
2.40
1.50
3.50
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (24)
1.33
1.12
1.58
1.17
1.08
1.08
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rangers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.33
1.17
2.81
0.88
1.79
1.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (5)
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.67
2.00
2.00
vs Weaker (24)
2.58
1.08
3.23
0.92
1.82
1.27
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Falkirk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.9%
Under 1.5
11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
70.9%
@ 1.63+13.8%
Under 2.5
29.1%
@ 2.17-13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
49.9%
Under 3.5
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.1%
No
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.3%
1-1
8.6%
1-3
7.5%
0-2
7.4%
2-2
5.9%
0-3
5.9%
0-1
5.4%
2-1
4.9%
Falkirk goals ↓
Rangers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.3%
5.4%
7.4%
5.9%
3.5%
1
2.5%
8.6%
9.3%
7.5%
4.5%
2
2.1%
4.9%
5.9%
4.7%
2.8%
3
0.9%
2.1%
2.5%
2.0%
1.2%
4
0.3%
0.7%
0.8%
0.6%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Falkirk goals (down), columns = Rangers goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.16
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Rangers
1.89
Motherwell
1.61
Hibernian
1.50
Falkirk
1.29
Partick
1.25
Dunfermline
1.25
Dundee Utd
1.18
Dundee
1.11
Kilmarnock
1.05
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Mirren
0.95
Livingston
0.55
Arbroath
0.50
Falkirk is 0.61 points worse than Rangers in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 1.89).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.00
Celtic
1.92
Heart Of Midlothian
1.76
Motherwell
1.55
Hibernian
1.53
Kilmarnock
1.32
Falkirk
1.32
Dundee Utd
1.29
Dundee
1.11
Livingston
1.05
Aberdeen
1.05
Partick
1.00
ST Mirren
0.80
Dunfermline
0.75
Arbroath
0.00
Falkirk is 0.68 goals worse than Rangers in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arbroath
0.50
Dunfermline
0.75
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Motherwell
0.95
Partick
1.00
Celtic
1.08
Rangers
1.13
Hibernian
1.16
ST Mirren
1.40
Aberdeen
1.45
Dundee Utd
1.58
Dundee
1.61
Falkirk
1.63
Kilmarnock
1.79
Livingston
1.97
Falkirk is 0.50 goals worse than Rangers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 1.13).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Celtic
66%
Rangers
58%
Motherwell
58%
Heart Of Midlothian
53%
Falkirk
51%
Arbroath
50%
Dunfermline
50%
Aberdeen
48%
Hibernian
47%
ST Mirren
46%
Livingston
45%
Dundee
44%
Kilmarnock
42%
Dundee Utd
42%
Falkirk is 7.2 percentage points worse than Rangers in terms of average possession (51% vs 58%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Falkirk
For 4.9 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 13.2 · Total 24.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rangers
For 7.4 · Against 2.9 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 13.6 · Total 26.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Falkirk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
8.6
10.8
3.6
3.9
3.2
25.3
25.0
25.7
vs Stronger (8)
10.0
7.7
11.8
3.5
4.3
3.0
24.3
26.0
23.0
vs Similar (37)
9.5
8.6
10.6
3.9
4.2
3.7
25.6
24.9
26.4
vs Weaker (5)
11.0
11.0
-
1.0
1.7
0.0
24.0
24.0
-
% over line
55%
41%
72%
54%
64%
44%
78%
77%
78%
% under line
45%
59%
28%
46%
36%
56%
22%
23%
22%
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rangers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.4
11.1
3.9
3.4
4.5
26.0
26.1
26.0
vs Stronger (1)
7.0
-
7.0
1.0
-
1.0
30.0
-
30.0
vs Similar (10)
9.5
9.2
10.5
4.8
3.9
7.0
30.2
29.7
32.0
vs Weaker (39)
10.5
9.5
11.4
3.8
3.3
4.3
25.0
24.9
25.1
% over line
58%
52%
64%
50%
44%
57%
78%
83%
73%
% under line
42%
48%
36%
50%
56%
43%
22%
17%
27%
This opponent (Falkirk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
ST Mirren
11.2
Celtic
10.9
Hibernian
10.7
Partick
10.4
Rangers
10.4
Dundee Utd
10.3
Aberdeen
10.2
Livingston
10.1
Dundee
10.0
Falkirk
10.0
Heart Of Midlothian
9.9
Kilmarnock
9.6
Arbroath
9.6
Dunfermline
9.2
Motherwell
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aberdeen
4.8
Motherwell
4.7
Hibernian
4.6
Partick
4.3
Livingston
4.3
Heart Of Midlothian
4.3
Rangers
4.2
Kilmarnock
4.2
Falkirk
4.1
Dundee Utd
4.1
Dunfermline
3.9
Celtic
3.8
Arbroath
3.6
Dundee
3.6
ST Mirren
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Motherwell
25.9
Rangers
25.7
Aberdeen
25.5
Livingston
25.2
Kilmarnock
24.6
Falkirk
24.5
Heart Of Midlothian
23.5
Hibernian
22.5
Dundee
22.1
Dundee Utd
22.0
Celtic
22.0
ST Mirren
21.8
Dunfermline
21.5
Arbroath
20.8
Partick
20.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
52.2%
Under 9.5
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
65.1%
Under 3.5
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
75.3%
Under 21.5
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Falkirk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.86
0.71
0.38
0.62
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.62
0.83
0.67
0.50
0.58
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rangers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.60
1.31
0.38
0.71
0.86
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (24)
1.08
0.54
1.38
0.46
0.73
0.64
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Falkirk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Falkirk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Falkirk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.71
0.79
0.62
0.50
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.40
0.50
2.50
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.58
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rangers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.57
1.50
0.50
1.07
0.64
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.80
0.00
0.67
1.50
1.00
vs Weaker (24)
1.50
0.54
1.85
0.46
1.09
0.64
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Falkirk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Falkirk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
70.9%
1.63
-
-
-
-
-
+13.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (34)
€154m
RAN (25)
€127m
HOM (33)
€33m
HIB (31)
€30m
ABE (35)
€24m
MOT (28)
€21m
KIL (33)
€13m
DUN (30)
€12m
SM (26)
€8m
FAL (26)
€7m
LIV (29)
€6m
DUN (31)
€6m
PAR (22)
€3m
ARB (25)
€1m
Falkirk's squad is €120m less valuable than Rangers's (€7m vs €127m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (9)
€59m
CEL (12)
€55m
HOM (12)
€19m
HIB (10)
€14m
MOT (10)
€12m
ABE (11)
€10m
KIL (12)
€5m
DUN (10)
€3m
SM (9)
€3m
DUN (11)
€2m
FAL (10)
€2m
LIV (12)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
ARB (5)
€0m
Falkirk's attack is €57m less valuable than Rangers's (€2m vs €59m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (6)
€38m
RAN (6)
€28m
HIB (8)
€10m
HOM (8)
€9m
ABE (10)
€5m
DUN (8)
€5m
MOT (8)
€4m
SM (7)
€3m
KIL (6)
€3m
LIV (8)
€3m
FAL (5)
€2m
PAR (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
ARB (8)
€1m
Falkirk's midfield is €26m less valuable than Rangers's (€2m vs €28m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (16)
€60m
RAN (10)
€40m
ABE (14)
€8m
HIB (13)
€6m
MOT (10)
€6m
HOM (13)
€5m
KIL (15)
€5m
DUN (11)
€5m
FAL (11)
€3m
SM (10)
€2m
DUN (14)
€2m
LIV (9)
€2m
PAR (9)
€1m
ARB (12)
€1m
Falkirk's defence is €37m less valuable than Rangers's (€3m vs €40m).
Scotland: Premiership 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →