Rangers are the clear favourite, with a 71% chance of victory, 17% for a draw and 13% for a Falkirk win. The model’s pick is an away win, driven by Rangers’ strong away form against weaker opponents and Falkirk’s struggles at home against stronger teams. The expected total of four goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-2 for Rangers, with an 8.6% probability. Falkirk averages 1.67 goals scored and 4.0 conceded at home against stronger sides, while Rangers average 1.82 scored and 1.27 conceded on the road. Suggested picks include Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.8%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.2% with a 5% edge, Home under 3.5 goals at 96.7% with a 1% edge, Away +2 handicap at 95.0% with a 4% edge, Under 7.5 at 94.8%, Away over 0.5 goals at 94.1% with a 9% edge, Over 1.5 at 91.6% with an 11% edge, and Away under 2.5 HT goals at 91.2% with a 1% edge.
Results analysis
The win extends Rangers’ two-game winning run, while Falkirk’s recent form shows a win after two straight defeats. The final score was 1-2, confirming the model’s pick of an away win, which was correct. The model had assigned a 71% probability to that outcome. Every suggested selection came through: Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.9%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.6%, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 97.2%, Under 7.5 hit at 95.6%, Away +2 handicap hit at 95.3%, Away over 0.5 goals hit at 93.6%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 93.0%, and Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 91.7%. The model’s predictions were largely accurate, with the favoured result landing and most selections confirmed.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Falkirk win✗ Miss
12.4%
Avg Implied 18.9% · @ 4.99
Edge
-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
5.25
Pinnacle
5.13
Dafabet
5.00
Betano
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Draw✗ Miss
16.8%
Avg Implied 22.6% · @ 4.17
Edge
-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.30
Betano
4.25
Pinnacle
4.22
Rangers win✓ Hit
70.8%
Avg Implied 58.6% · @ 1.61
Edge
+12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.65
Dafabet
1.63
Superbet
1.62
1xBet
1.62
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Falkirk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.43
1.73
1.73
1.13
1.13
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
3.17
1.67
4.00
0.67
2.33
vs Similar (21)
1.33
1.14
1.64
1.27
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
0.00
3.00
0.00
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rangers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.33
1.23
2.94
1.06
1.64
1.43
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (4)
1.00
1.25
1.00
0.67
1.00
3.00
vs Weaker (25)
2.60
1.16
3.38
1.15
1.75
1.17
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Falkirk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
90.6%
@ 1.17+10.1%
Under 1.5
9.4%
@ 4.81-10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Under
Unibet
5.20
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.85
BetVictor
4.80
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
74.5%
@ 1.59+14.8%
Under 2.5
25.5%
@ 2.34-14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.65
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
Betfair
1.60
Superbet
1.59
Under
Unibet
2.45
10Bet
2.38
Bet365
2.38
Superbet
2.37
Betano
2.37
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
54.4%
@ 2.44+15.8%
Under 3.5
45.6%
@ 1.53-15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.60
Betfair
2.55
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.50
Superbet
2.47
Under
Unibet
1.58
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.0%
@ 1.61+6.1%
No
36.0%
@ 2.21-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.65
Superbet
1.64
William Hil
1.62
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
No
Unibet
2.28
10Bet
2.25
BetVictor
2.25
Betano
2.22
Bet365
2.20
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2 ✓
8.8%@ 7.53+2.9%
1-3
8.1%@ 10.88+4.0%
0-2
7.8%@ 8.37+2.5%
0-3
7.2%@ 11.98+3.4%
1-1
7.0%@ 7.63+1.2%
1-4
5.6%@ 19.62+3.3%
0-1
5.0%@ 8.29-0.4%
2-2
5.0%@ 12.67+1.4%
Falkirk goals ↓
Rangers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.7%
5.0%
7.8%
7.2%
5.0%
1
1.7%
7.0%
8.8%
8.1%
5.6%
2
1.3%
3.6%
5.0%
4.6%
3.2%
3
0.5%
1.4%
1.9%
1.7%
1.2%
4
0.1%
0.4%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Falkirk goals (down), columns = Rangers goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.16
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Rangers
1.89
Motherwell
1.61
Hibernian
1.50
Falkirk
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.18
Dundee
1.11
Kilmarnock
1.05
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Johnstone
1.05
ST Mirren
0.95
Falkirk is 0.61 points worse than Rangers in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 1.89).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.00
Celtic
1.92
Heart Of Midlothian
1.76
Motherwell
1.55
Hibernian
1.53
Kilmarnock
1.32
Falkirk
1.32
Dundee Utd
1.29
Dundee
1.11
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Johnstone
1.00
ST Mirren
0.80
Falkirk is 0.68 goals worse than Rangers in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Motherwell
0.95
Celtic
1.08
Rangers
1.13
Hibernian
1.16
ST Mirren
1.40
Aberdeen
1.45
ST Johnstone
1.56
Dundee Utd
1.58
Dundee
1.61
Falkirk
1.63
Kilmarnock
1.79
Falkirk is 0.50 goals worse than Rangers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 1.13).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Celtic
66%
Rangers
58%
Motherwell
58%
Heart Of Midlothian
53%
Falkirk
51%
Aberdeen
48%
Hibernian
47%
ST Mirren
46%
Dundee
44%
Kilmarnock
42%
Dundee Utd
42%
Falkirk is 7.2 percentage points worse than Rangers in terms of average possession (51% vs 58%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Falkirk
For 4.5 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.7 · Against 12.6 · Total 26.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rangers
For 6.0 · Against 3.6 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.9 · Against 14.2 · Total 28.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Falkirk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
8.7
10.4
3.6
3.8
3.5
25.5
25.2
25.8
vs Stronger (10)
10.0
8.5
11.2
3.6
4.0
3.3
23.4
24.5
22.6
vs Similar (37)
9.4
8.8
10.1
3.9
3.9
3.9
26.0
25.3
26.9
vs Weaker (3)
7.0
7.0
-
0.7
2.0
0.0
27.0
27.0
-
% over line
51%
39%
65%
56%
62%
50%
74%
74%
75%
% under line
49%
61%
35%
44%
38%
50%
26%
26%
25%
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rangers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
9.4
10.8
3.8
3.1
4.6
26.3
25.8
26.7
vs Stronger (1)
7.0
-
7.0
1.0
-
1.0
30.0
-
30.0
vs Similar (9)
10.1
10.0
10.3
4.8
3.8
6.0
29.6
28.8
30.7
vs Weaker (40)
10.2
9.2
11.1
3.6
3.0
4.4
25.5
25.2
25.9
% over line
55%
55%
55%
48%
41%
57%
77%
82%
73%
% under line
45%
45%
45%
52%
59%
43%
23%
18%
27%
This opponent (Falkirk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
ST Mirren
11.2
Celtic
10.8
Dundee Utd
10.5
Hibernian
10.4
Heart Of Midlothian
10.3
Aberdeen
10.2
Rangers
10.1
ST Johnstone
10.1
Dundee
9.8
Falkirk
9.6
Kilmarnock
9.4
Motherwell
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aberdeen
4.8
Motherwell
4.7
Hibernian
4.7
Heart Of Midlothian
4.6
Rangers
4.3
Kilmarnock
4.2
Falkirk
4.2
Dundee Utd
4.1
ST Johnstone
4.0
Celtic
3.9
Dundee
3.7
ST Mirren
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rangers
26.6
Motherwell
26.0
Aberdeen
25.8
Falkirk
25.2
Kilmarnock
24.3
Heart Of Midlothian
24.3
Hibernian
23.2
ST Mirren
22.1
Dundee Utd
22.0
ST Johnstone
22.0
Dundee
21.7
Celtic
21.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.0%
@ 1.71+0.6%
Under 9.5
45.0%
@ 2.04-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.78
10Bet
1.70
Unibet
1.70
Under
Pinnacle
2.20
Marathonbet
2.18
1xBet
2.10
10Bet
2.05
Unibet
2.00
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
62.1%
@ 1.59+3.7%
Under 3.5
37.9%
@ 2.22-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Superbet
1.60
Unibet
1.44
Under
Unibet
2.45
1xBet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.15
Superbet
2.12
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
81.1%
Under 21.5
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Falkirk or Draw✗ Miss
29.2%
Avg Implied 41.4% · @ 2.26
Edge
-12.2%
12%
17%
71%
covers Falkirk + Draw
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
2.30
Superbet
2.30
10Bet
2.30
Unibet
2.30
Betano
2.27
Falkirk or Rangers✓ Hit
83.2%
Avg Implied 77.9% · @ 1.20
Edge
+5.3%
12%
17%
71%
covers Falkirk + Rangers
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Draw or Rangers✓ Hit
87.6%
Avg Implied 80.8% · @ 1.16
Edge
+6.8%
12%
17%
71%
covers Draw + Rangers
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
William Hil
1.17
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Falkirk over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
67.7%
@ 1.43+2.4%
Under
32.3%
@ 2.68-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.47
Superbet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Betano
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.80
Betfair
2.75
Unibet
2.75
BetVictor
2.70
Betano
2.67
Falkirk over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
31.2%
@ 3.10+1.0%
Under
68.8%
@ 1.34-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.28
Betfair
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Marathonbet
3.16
1xBet
3.16
Under
Betano
1.37
Unibet
1.36
Superbet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Falkirk over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.5%
@ 8.01-1.1%
Under
89.5%
@ 1.06+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
9.00
Marathonbet
8.90
1xBet
8.80
Superbet
7.80
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Unibet
1.06
Falkirk over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.8%
@ 22.12-1.6%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.01+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
29.00
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
22.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Rangers over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
93.6%
@ 1.10+8.6%
Under
6.4%
@ 6.24-8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Under
1xBet
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Unibet
6.25
Rangers over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
76.1%
@ 1.56+16.0%
Under
23.9%
@ 2.35-16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
Marathonbet
1.59
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.56
Under
Unibet
2.45
BetVictor
2.38
10Bet
2.38
Bet365
2.38
Pinnacle
2.38
Rangers over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
52.0%
@ 2.75+18.0%
Under
48.0%
@ 1.41-18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.94
Betfair
2.88
Marathonbet
2.82
BetVictor
2.75
1xBet
2.75
Under
Unibet
1.45
Superbet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Rangers over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
29.8%
@ 5.60+13.2%
Under
70.2%
@ 1.12-13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.90
1xBet
5.65
Superbet
5.35
Under
Betano
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Falkirk, so a minus line means Falkirk give that many goals of a start and Rangers receive them. At -1, Falkirk must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Falkirk win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Falkirk)Actual: Rangers
Falkirk -2
1.3%
@ 25.75-2.3%
Draw -2
3.3%
@ 13.00-3.8%
Rangers +2
95.3%
@ 1.04+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
34.00
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
23.00
10Bet
17.00
Draw
Betfair
15.00
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
13.00
10Bet
9.00
Away
Bet365
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Handicap -1 (Falkirk)Actual: Rangers
Falkirk -1
4.7%
@ 9.82-4.4%
Draw -1
7.7%
@ 6.29-6.4%
Rangers +1
87.6%
@ 1.16+10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
11.00
10Bet
10.00
Unibet
10.00
Superbet
9.40
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Unibet
6.50
Superbet
6.30
Away
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.15
Handicap +1 (Falkirk)Actual: Draw
Falkirk +1
29.2%
@ 2.27-10.5%
Draw +1
19.8%
@ 3.71-4.6%
Rangers -1
51.0%
@ 2.51+15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
2.30
Betfair
2.30
10Bet
2.30
Superbet
2.27
Bet365
2.25
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Superbet
3.65
Unibet
3.55
Away
Betfair
2.60
Marathonbet
2.57
10Bet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Superbet
2.47
Handicap +2 (Falkirk)Actual: Falkirk
Falkirk +2
49.0%
@ 1.46-12.6%
Draw +2
19.8%
@ 4.61+0.3%
Rangers -2
31.2%
@ 4.72+12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.48
Superbet
1.48
Bet365
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Draw
Marathonbet
5.00
Bet365
4.75
Superbet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Away
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.85
10Bet
4.50
Superbet
4.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Falkirk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.77
1.00
0.93
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.67
1.33
1.67
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.62
0.82
0.82
0.50
0.40
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rangers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.67
1.25
0.50
0.79
0.86
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (4)
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (25)
1.04
0.64
1.31
0.62
0.75
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Falkirk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.9%
@ 1.27+4.9%
Under 0.5
22.1%
@ 3.46-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Under
William Hil
3.70
Betfair
3.60
Superbet
3.60
Unibet
3.55
BetVictor
3.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
45.5%
@ 2.30+5.0%
Under 1.5
54.5%
@ 1.57-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.44
Betano
2.42
Marathonbet
2.36
1xBet
2.32
Superbet
2.30
Under
William Hil
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Bet365
1.57
Unibet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.2%
@ 5.25-1.5%
Under 2.5
83.8%
@ 1.13+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
1xBet
5.30
Under
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.14
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Falkirk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
39.9%
@ 2.45+1.8%
Under
60.1%
@ 1.51-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.57
10Bet
2.55
Marathonbet
2.46
Betano
2.42
Superbet
2.42
Under
Betano
1.53
Unibet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.52
1xBet
1.52
Superbet
1.50
Falkirk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.8%
@ 8.49+1.9%
Under
87.2%
@ 1.04-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
8.50
Superbet
8.30
Unibet
8.00
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
Falkirk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.1%
@ 34.00-98.9%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
34.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
63.0%
@ 1.58+3.8%
Under
37.0%
@ 2.29-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.57
1xBet
1.56
Superbet
1.55
Under
Unibet
2.33
Pinnacle
2.33
Superbet
2.30
10Bet
2.30
1xBet
2.28
Rangers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
21.6%
@ 3.76-3.0%
Under
78.4%
@ 1.23+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.10
Betano
3.90
10Bet
3.70
Unibet
3.65
Superbet
3.60
Under
Superbet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Rangers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.0%
@ 9.47-2.8%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.03+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.90
Unibet
9.50
Superbet
9.50
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Unibet
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Falkirk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.67
0.73
0.80
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.50
0.33
2.33
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.52
0.82
0.45
0.50
0.60
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rangers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.57
1.69
0.56
0.86
0.57
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (4)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.67
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (25)
1.56
0.52
2.08
0.54
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Falkirk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
83.2%
@ 1.15+2.2%
Under 0.5
16.8%
@ 4.89-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.13
Under
Unibet
5.10
10Bet
5.10
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
4.95
Superbet
4.85
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
49.9%
@ 1.78-2.8%
Under 1.5
50.1%
@ 1.97+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.83
Superbet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.81
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Under
10Bet
2.05
Unibet
2.05
Betano
2.00
1xBet
1.96
Superbet
1.95
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
25.2%
@ 3.36-2.4%
Under 2.5
74.8%
@ 1.28+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.60
Superbet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Marathonbet
3.42
1xBet
3.34
Under
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Unibet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Falkirk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
42.5%
@ 2.01-3.5%
Under
57.5%
@ 1.72+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.02
Superbet
2.02
Betano
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Under
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.71
Superbet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.69
Falkirk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.0%
@ 6.09-3.2%
Under
88.0%
@ 1.09+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.80
1xBet
6.30
Superbet
6.10
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.50
Under
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
Falkirk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 16.25-3.5%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.02+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
21.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Rangers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
62.4%
@ 1.39-4.5%
Under
37.6%
@ 2.81+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.39
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.38
Under
Betano
2.85
1xBet
2.80
Superbet
2.77
Rangers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
36.7%
@ 2.76+3.2%
Under
63.3%
@ 1.39-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.84
Superbet
2.82
Betano
2.75
1xBet
2.75
10Bet
2.65
Under
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.36
Rangers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.3%
@ 6.67-5.6%
Under
91.7%
@ 1.08+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.00
Superbet
6.80
Betano
6.20
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
95.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
95.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
-
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
93.6%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
+8.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
93.0%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Unibet
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
91.7%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
-
-
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
90.6%
1.17
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
+10.1%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
90.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-3.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
89.5%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Unibet
1.06
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
88.0%
1.09
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
87.6%
1.16
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
William Hil
1.17
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
87.6%
1.16
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.15
+10.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.2%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
-1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.8%
1.13
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.14
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
83.2%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.2%
1.15
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.13
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
80.3%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Unibet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
-8.2%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
80.1%
1.23
Superbet
1.23
-
-
-
-
+7.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
78.4%
1.23
Superbet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
77.9%
1.27
Betano
1.33
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Away over 1.5 goals
76.1%
1.56
Betfair
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
Marathonbet
1.59
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.56
+16.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
74.8%
1.28
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Unibet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
74.5%
1.59
Pinnacle
1.65
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
Betfair
1.60
Superbet
1.59
+14.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
73.9%
1.33
Unibet
1.36
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Away win
70.8%
1.61
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.65
Dafabet
1.63
Superbet
1.62
1xBet
1.62
+12.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
70.2%
1.12
Betano
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-13.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Falkirk
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Scott Bain0%
Ryan Strain0%
Ethan Ross0%
Liam Henderson0%
Ross Maclver0%
L. McCann0%
L. Neilson0%
D. Meļņiks0%
Ben Parkinson0%
Aodhan Doherty0%
Finley Frank Barbrook0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
L. Neilson33%
Ethan Ross25%
L. McCann25%
Aodhan Doherty25%
Scott Bain0%
Ryan Strain0%
Liam Henderson0%
Ross Maclver0%
D. Meļņiks0%
Ben Parkinson0%
Finley Frank Barbrook0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Scott Bain0%
Ryan Strain0%
Ethan Ross0%
Liam Henderson0%
Ross Maclver0%
L. McCann0%
L. Neilson0%
D. Meļņiks0%
Ben Parkinson0%
Aodhan Doherty0%
Finley Frank Barbrook0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ethan Ross25%
Scott Bain0%
Ryan Strain0%
Liam Henderson0%
Ross Maclver0%
L. McCann0%
L. Neilson0%
D. Meļņiks0%
Ben Parkinson0%
Aodhan Doherty0%
Finley Frank Barbrook0%
Rangers
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
L. Shankland33%
Thelo Aasgaard33%
Ryan Don Naderi20%
Ross McCrorie0%
C. Devlin0%
Ivor Pandur0%
B. Godfrey0%
Dan Neil0%
Dujon Sterling0%
J. Penrice0%
Tochi Chukwuani0%
D. Yokota0%
Emmanuel Fernandez0%
Djeidi Gassama0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
O. Makhanya0%
Findlay Curtis0%
V. Dragojević0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dan Neil50%
Dujon Sterling50%
Ross McCrorie33%
V. Dragojević33%
C. Devlin20%
O. Makhanya20%
L. Shankland17%
Emmanuel Fernandez17%
Findlay Curtis17%
Ivor Pandur0%
B. Godfrey0%
J. Penrice0%
Tochi Chukwuani0%
D. Yokota0%
Thelo Aasgaard0%
Ryan Don Naderi0%
Djeidi Gassama0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ross McCrorie33%
D. Yokota20%
Djeidi Gassama17%
C. Devlin0%
Ivor Pandur0%
B. Godfrey0%
Dan Neil0%
Dujon Sterling0%
L. Shankland0%
J. Penrice0%
Tochi Chukwuani0%
Thelo Aasgaard0%
Ryan Don Naderi0%
Emmanuel Fernandez0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
O. Makhanya0%
Findlay Curtis0%
V. Dragojević0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Thelo Aasgaard33%
Djeidi Gassama33%
V. Dragojević33%
L. Shankland17%
Ross McCrorie0%
C. Devlin0%
Ivor Pandur0%
B. Godfrey0%
Dan Neil0%
Dujon Sterling0%
J. Penrice0%
Tochi Chukwuani0%
D. Yokota0%
Ryan Don Naderi0%
Emmanuel Fernandez0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
O. Makhanya0%
Findlay Curtis0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
Falkirk's squad is €130m less valuable than Rangers's (€6m vs €136m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
Falkirk's attack is €36m less valuable than Rangers's (€2m vs €38m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
Falkirk's midfield is €43m less valuable than Rangers's (€1m vs €44m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
Falkirk's defence is €50m less valuable than Rangers's (€3m vs €54m).
Scotland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Celtic
ST Mirren
Heart Of Midlothian
Motherwell
Dundee
Hibernian
ST Johnstone
Dundee Utd
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock