PythiaFootballBETA
Falkirk and ST Mirren meet at the start of August in the Scotland Premiership. The recent-form storylines are telling, with ST Mirren on a 3-game winning run, while Falkirk comes off a draw. This sets up an intriguing match, with Falkirk's home win percentage at 42% and ST Mirren's away win percentage at 32%. The model's pick is indeed a home win, which aligns with the overall probabilities of 42% for Falkirk to win, 26% for a draw, and 32% for ST Mirren to win.
The expected total goals are 3.2, with a most likely total of 3 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 11.6%. Falkirk's home form against weaker opponents sees them score an average of 1 goal and concede 1 goal, while ST Mirren's away form against stronger opponents sees them score an average of 1 goal and concede 1.67 goals.
The model's selections include Over 1.5, with a probability of 83.3% and an 8% edge. This selection has indeed hit in the past.
An upset in Scotland's Premiership as ST Mirren stunned Falkirk with a 0-2 win. The win extends Falkirk's run of draws to five, having previously drawn with Motherwell, while ST Mirren's victory marks the end of their three-game winning streak. The pre-match favourite, a home win, was not the model's selection, but the model's call was wrong as it had picked the home win with a 42% probability. The model's selection, Over 1.5, hit with an 83.3% probability, and the final score was 0-2.
Falkirk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.33 | 1.60 | 1.69 | 1.69 | 0.93 | 1.50 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.86 | 3.00 | 1.67 | 4.00 | 0.25 | 2.25 |
| vs Similar (13) | 1.23 | 1.46 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.17 | 1.67 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 1.80 | 0.80 | 2.17 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
ST Mirren| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 1.47 | 0.53 | 1.20 | 1.07 | 1.73 |
| vs Stronger (16) | 0.94 | 1.31 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.12 | 1.62 |
| vs Similar (14) | 0.64 | 1.64 | 0.29 | 1.43 | 1.00 | 1.86 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
| ST Mirren goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 6.2% | 12% | 7.7% | 3.8% | 1.4% |
| 2 | 6.1% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| 3 | 3.4% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
FalkirkST MirrenFalkirk| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.6 | 8.6 | 10.6 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 25.3 | 25.2 | 25.4 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 10.1 | 8.5 | 11.8 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 23.8 | 24.5 | 23.0 |
| vs Similar (20) | 10.2 | 9.2 | 11.1 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 25.5 | 25.7 | 25.3 |
| vs Weaker (22) | 8.4 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 25.9 | 24.9 | 27.3 |
| % over line | 52% | 41% | 65% | 54% | 58% | 50% | 79% | 77% | 80% |
| % under line | 48% | 59% | 35% | 46% | 42% | 50% | 21% | 23% | 20% |
ST Mirren| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.0 | 10.6 | 11.5 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 21.7 | 21.2 | 22.3 |
| vs Stronger (29) | 10.8 | 10.1 | 11.5 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 21.2 | 21.3 | 21.0 |
| vs Similar (20) | 11.3 | 11.1 | 11.4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 22.8 | 21.4 | 24.2 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 13.0 | 13.0 | - | 2.0 | 2.0 | - | 17.0 | 17.0 | - |
| % over line | 71% | 72% | 70% | 38% | 58% | 17% | 54% | 52% | 57% |
| % under line | 29% | 28% | 30% | 62% | 42% | 83% | 46% | 48% | 43% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 83.3% | 1.24 | 1.27 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | +7.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 70.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 10/01/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 13/09/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 28/04/18 | H | 1-0 | |
| 17/04/18 | A | 1-2 | |
| 21/10/17 | H | 0-0 | |
| 05/08/17 | A | 3-1 | |
| 15/04/17 | H | 2-2 |
Falkirk| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 | H | 2-5 | |
| 13/05/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 3-6 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 28/02/26 | H | 5-1 |
ST Mirren| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 21/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 12/05/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 1-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Celtic | 2 | 6 | 100% | 3.0 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 3.5 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 12.5 | 100% | 1.5 | 0% | 19.0 | 50% | 154 | 55 | 38 | 60 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 66% |
| 2 | ST Mirren | 2 | 6 | 100% | 3.0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 1.5 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 10.5 | 50% | 3.5 | 50% | 27.5 | 50% | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 46% |
| 3 |  Motherwell | 2 | 4 | 50% | 2.0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 1.5 | 50% | 50% | 0% | 7.5 | 50% | 4.0 | 100% | 30.0 | 100% | 21 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 58% |
| 4 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 100% | 50% | 9.5 | 50% | 4.0 | 50% | 24.5 | 100% | 33 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 53% |
| 5 |  Dundee | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 1.5 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 | 50% | 3.0 | 50% | 18.5 | 0% | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 44% |
| 6 |  ST Johnstone | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 4 | 4 | +0 | 4.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 8.0 | 0% | 3.5 | 50% | 19.0 | 0% | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 7 |  Hibernian | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 10.5 | 100% | 3.0 | 50% | 25.5 | 100% | 30 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 47% |
| 8 |  Aberdeen | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 0% | 9.5 | 50% | 4.5 | 100% | 24.0 | 50% | 24 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 9 |  Rangers | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 0% | 12.5 | 100% | 3.0 | 50% | 27.0 | 100% | 127 | 59 | 28 | 40 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 58% |
| 10 | Falkirk | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1.0 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 | 50% | 4.0 | 100% | 34.5 | 100% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 51% |
| 11 |  Dundee Utd | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 12.0 | 50% | 3.5 | 50% | 26.0 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 42% |
| 12 |  Kilmarnock | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 6.5 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 10.5 | 50% | 2.5 | 50% | 20.5 | 50% | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 42% |