Farense’s defensive record at home is a mirror of the league average, conceding 0.73 goals per game while scoring the same. Felgueiras 1932, on the road, have a slightly better offensive output, 1.17 goals per match, and a modest 0.92 conceded. The match is projected to be tight, with the model picking a home win at 35 %, a draw at 34 %, and an away win at 31 %. The expected total of 2.0 goals points to a low-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 0-0, carrying a 15 % probability. The team’s recent form supports this: Farense are on a two-game winning streak after a 3-1 win over FC Porto B, while Felgueiras come off a 1-1 draw with AVS.
Suggested selections include Under 7.5 at 99.9 %, Under 6.5 at 99.6 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.9 %, Under 5.5 at 98.4 % (edge 4 %), Away under 3.5 goals at 98.3 % (edge 3 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.1 % (edge 3 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.0 % (edge 3 %), and Home under 3.5 goals at 97.9 % (edge 5 %).
Results analysis
Farense’s unbeaten run of five matches ended in a 1-1 draw with Felgueiras 1932, a result that stunned the pre-match favourite. The model had tipped a home win with a 35 % probability, but the prediction was wrong. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 (99.9 %), Under 6.5 (99.6 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.9 %), Under 5.5 (98.4 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.3 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.1 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.0 %), and Home under 3.5 goals (97.9 %). The match finished 1-1, confirming the draw and underscoring the model’s misjudgment of the home advantage.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Farense win✗ Miss
35.2%
Avg Implied 40.1% · @ 2.29
Edge
-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.45
Dafabet
2.40
1xBet
2.38
William Hil
2.38
Betano
2.37
Draw✓ Hit
33.6%
Avg Implied 30.8% · @ 2.98
Edge
+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
3.10
Dafabet
3.10
Betano
3.05
Unibet
3.05
Superbet
3.05
Felgueiras 1932 win✗ Miss
31.2%
Avg Implied 29.1% · @ 3.15
Edge
+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
3.60
10Bet
3.50
Pinnacle
3.26
Unibet
3.25
Dafabet
3.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Farense
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.00
1.12
0.94
0.93
1.07
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.04
1.13
1.00
1.00
1.08
1.25
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
0.33
1.75
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Felgueiras 1932) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Felgueiras 1932
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.07
0.71
1.00
1.06
1.12
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.75
1.75
vs Similar (24)
0.92
0.96
0.67
1.00
1.17
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Farense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
60.6%
@ 1.41-5.0%
Under 1.5
39.4%
@ 2.69+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
Unibet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Under
Pinnacle
2.84
Superbet
2.75
10Bet
2.75
Bet365
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
32.2%
@ 2.30-8.4%
Under 2.5
67.8%
@ 1.57+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.40
Pinnacle
2.40
1xBet
2.33
Marathonbet
2.33
Bet365
2.30
Under
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.60
10Bet
1.60
Superbet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.58
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
14.2%
@ 4.31-7.4%
Under 3.5
85.8%
@ 1.18+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.00
Pinnacle
4.52
BetVictor
4.50
888Sport
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Under
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.20
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
41.1%
@ 1.94-6.6%
No
58.9%
@ 1.77+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
2.00
Betfair
1.95
Superbet
1.95
William Hil
1.95
888Sport
1.95
No
Betano
1.82
Betfair
1.80
Bet365
1.80
BetVictor
1.78
1xBet
1.77
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
15.0%@ 6.88+8.5%
1-1 ✓
14.9%@ 5.49+6.8%
1-0
12.7%@ 6.09+5.5%
0-1
11.7%@ 7.43+5.8%
2-0
7.3%@ 9.69+2.7%
2-1
7.0%@ 8.78+2.0%
1-2
6.5%@ 10.73+2.4%
0-2
6.3%@ 14.22+3.2%
Farense goals ↓
Felgueiras 1932 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
12%
6.3%
2.0%
0.5%
1
13%
15%
6.5%
2.1%
0.5%
2
7.3%
7.0%
3.4%
1.1%
0.3%
3
2.5%
2.4%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.7%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Farense goals (down), columns = Felgueiras 1932 goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Torreense
1.74
AVS
1.50
Vizela
1.50
FC Porto B
1.50
Leixoes
1.47
União de Leiria
1.47
Tondela
1.36
Feirense
1.35
Chaves
1.32
Benfica B
1.29
Felgueiras 1932
1.29
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.26
Sporting CP B
1.24
Farense
1.22
Penafiel
1.21
Portimonense
1.18
Academica
0.98
Amarante
0.82
Farense is 0.07 points worse than Felgueiras 1932 in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
União de Leiria
1.53
Leixoes
1.35
Torreense
1.35
AVS
1.30
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.29
Benfica B
1.26
Chaves
1.24
Sporting CP B
1.21
FC Porto B
1.21
Tondela
1.17
Vizela
1.15
Portimonense
1.15
Penafiel
1.09
Feirense
1.09
Felgueiras 1932
1.00
Farense
0.89
Academica
0.85
Amarante
0.71
Farense is 0.11 goals worse than Felgueiras 1932 in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Torreense
0.97
Sporting CP B
1.00
Farense
1.03
AVS
1.05
Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Penafiel
1.15
Tondela
1.16
Vizela
1.18
Feirense
1.18
Chaves
1.18
FC Porto B
1.24
Benfica B
1.29
União de Leiria
1.35
Portimonense
1.44
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.53
Academica
1.61
Leixoes
1.62
Amarante
1.92
Farense is 0.09 goals better than Felgueiras 1932 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.12).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chaves
55%
Sporting CP B
54%
Benfica B
54%
Vizela
54%
Felgueiras 1932
54%
União de Leiria
51%
Leixoes
50%
Farense
49%
Penafiel
49%
Portimonense
48%
Lusitânia Lourosa
48%
FC Porto B
47%
Torreense
46%
Feirense
42%
Farense is 4.7 percentage points worse than Felgueiras 1932 in terms of average possession (49% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Farense
For 5.4 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.4 · Against 14.4 · Total 30.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Felgueiras 1932
For 6.2 · Against 4.1 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 3.0 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 17.0 · Total 29.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Farense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
11.5
9.6
5.4
6.1
4.6
30.7
31.9
29.2
vs Stronger (4)
14.2
14.5
14.0
6.8
8.5
5.0
29.5
35.0
24.0
vs Similar (37)
9.7
11.1
7.6
5.5
6.2
4.8
32.2
32.3
32.0
vs Weaker (9)
9.5
8.0
11.0
4.2
4.8
3.5
24.5
23.0
26.0
% over line
50%
50%
50%
76%
88%
64%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
24%
12%
36%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Felgueiras 1932) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Felgueiras 1932
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
12.2
8.8
5.2
5.3
5.2
23.5
20.0
25.9
vs Stronger (9)
11.7
13.0
9.0
5.2
6.2
4.0
33.7
28.0
45.0
vs Similar (41)
9.6
11.7
8.7
5.2
5.1
5.4
21.3
16.8
23.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
54%
100%
25%
72%
79%
65%
71%
57%
80%
% under line
46%
0%
75%
28%
21%
35%
29%
43%
20%
This opponent (Farense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Penafiel
11.5
Portimonense
11.2
Torreense
11.0
Farense
10.8
Lusitânia Lourosa
10.4
FC Porto B
10.3
Felgueiras 1932
10.1
Vizela
9.9
União de Leiria
9.8
Benfica B
9.6
Tondela
9.6
AVS
9.5
Feirense
9.0
Leixoes
8.9
Chaves
8.8
Sporting CP B
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Benfica B
6.7
Feirense
6.6
Vizela
6.3
Leixoes
6.0
FC Porto B
6.0
Chaves
5.9
Sporting CP B
5.9
Lusitânia Lourosa
5.9
Felgueiras 1932
5.8
União de Leiria
5.6
Farense
5.6
Portimonense
5.4
Penafiel
5.3
Tondela
5.2
Torreense
5.2
AVS
5.1
Academica
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Farense
31.3
Lusitânia Lourosa
30.1
Leixoes
26.4
AVS
25.7
Tondela
25.1
Sporting CP B
25.0
Felgueiras 1932
23.5
União de Leiria
23.1
FC Porto B
21.9
Penafiel
21.8
Benfica B
21.2
Torreense
21.1
Chaves
20.9
Portimonense
20.8
Vizela
20.8
Feirense
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
48.2%
@ 1.79-3.8%
Under 9.5
51.8%
@ 1.94+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.82
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.82
Pinnacle
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Under
Bet365
1.98
1xBet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.97
Marathonbet
1.93
Betano
1.93
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
83.3%
Under 3.5
16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
87.7%
Under 21.5
12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Farense or Draw✓ Hit
68.8%
Avg Implied 70.7% · @ 1.31
Edge
-1.9%
35%
34%
31%
covers Farense + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.39
William Hil
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Farense or Felgueiras 1932✗ Miss
66.4%
Avg Implied 69.7% · @ 1.33
Edge
-3.3%
35%
34%
31%
covers Farense + Felgueiras 1932
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Draw or Felgueiras 1932✓ Hit
64.8%
Avg Implied 59.6% · @ 1.56
Edge
+5.2%
35%
34%
31%
covers Draw + Felgueiras 1932
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.67
10Bet
1.67
Betano
1.60
Unibet
1.57
William Hil
1.55
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Farense over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
64.5%
@ 1.31-6.3%
Under
35.5%
@ 3.17+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.32
Under
888Sport
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Pinnacle
3.27
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.15
Farense over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
27.7%
@ 2.52-9.1%
Under
72.3%
@ 1.47+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.72
Bet365
2.62
Marathonbet
2.61
BetVictor
2.60
Under
888Sport
1.53
10Bet
1.53
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.48
Farense over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.7%
@ 5.90-7.0%
Under
91.3%
@ 1.10+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.15
BetVictor
6.00
1xBet
6.00
Under
Betano
1.13
888Sport
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Farense over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 14.81-4.3%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.02+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
15.00
888Sport
15.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Felgueiras 1932 over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
61.7%
@ 1.46-1.7%
Under
38.3%
@ 2.53+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.53
10Bet
1.50
Unibet
1.50
1xBet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
Under
Pinnacle
2.73
Betano
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
BetVictor
2.60
Felgueiras 1932 over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
24.9%
@ 3.26-3.6%
Under
75.1%
@ 1.30+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
3.60
10Bet
3.45
Pinnacle
3.39
Marathonbet
3.26
Bet365
3.25
Under
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
Felgueiras 1932 over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.3%
@ 8.86-3.3%
Under
92.7%
@ 1.05+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
11.00
Betfair
9.50
1xBet
9.10
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
8.60
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Felgueiras 1932 over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 19.67-3.3%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
21.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Farense, so a minus line means Farense give that many goals of a start and Felgueiras 1932 receive them. At -1, Farense must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Farense win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Farense)Actual: Felgueiras 1932
Farense -2
4.2%
@ 10.91-3.9%
Draw -2
10.0%
@ 6.36-3.9%
Felgueiras 1932 +2
85.8%
@ 1.14+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
15.00
Bet365
12.00
Superbet
10.00
Marathonbet
6.65
Draw
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Superbet
6.40
Marathonbet
4.55
Away
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.12
Betfair
1.10
Handicap -1 (Farense)Actual: Felgueiras 1932
Farense -1
14.2%
@ 4.60-5.0%
Draw -1
21.0%
@ 3.65-3.2%
Felgueiras 1932 +1
64.8%
@ 1.56+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.75
Superbet
4.60
10Bet
4.20
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.84
Superbet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.55
Away
10Bet
1.67
Unibet
1.57
Superbet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Handicap +1 (Farense)Actual: Farense
Farense +1
68.8%
@ 1.32+0.7%
Draw +1
19.3%
@ 4.67+0.1%
Felgueiras 1932 -1
11.9%
@ 7.08-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
10Bet
1.28
Draw
10Bet
4.75
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.65
Superbet
4.55
Away
10Bet
8.00
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.90
Superbet
6.40
Handicap +2 (Farense)Actual: Farense
Farense +2
88.1%
@ 1.08+3.4%
Draw +2
8.6%
@ 9.15-1.4%
Felgueiras 1932 -2
3.3%
@ 17.50-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Draw
Bet365
10.00
Superbet
8.30
Away
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
16.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Farense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.40
0.50
0.31
0.21
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.39
0.43
0.55
0.27
0.25
0.58
vs Weaker (6)
0.33
0.17
0.50
0.25
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Felgueiras 1932) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Felgueiras 1932
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.47
0.29
0.43
0.38
0.50
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.75
vs Similar (24)
0.38
0.46
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Farense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
66.6%
@ 1.49+4.4%
Under 0.5
33.4%
@ 2.46-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.52
Betfair
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
Under
William Hil
2.62
Pinnacle
2.59
Superbet
2.50
10Bet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
27.9%
@ 3.26-0.6%
Under 1.5
72.1%
@ 1.30+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
1xBet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.35
Betano
3.35
BetVictor
3.30
Under
William Hil
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
9.1%
@ 8.80-1.5%
Under 2.5
90.9%
@ 1.04+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
William Hil
9.00
BetVictor
9.00
1xBet
8.70
Under
Betano
1.07
William Hil
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Farense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
48.3%
@ 2.16+5.2%
Under
51.7%
@ 1.64-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.25
Pinnacle
2.20
Marathonbet
2.20
Betano
2.20
Superbet
2.12
Under
10Bet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.66
Superbet
1.65
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.58
Farense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.2%
@ 7.03-3.0%
Under
89.8%
@ 1.07+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.00
Marathonbet
7.80
Superbet
6.60
Betano
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Farense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 19.83-2.9%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
24.00
10Bet
23.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Felgueiras 1932 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
34.7%
@ 2.49-2.4%
Under
65.3%
@ 1.47+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.57
10Bet
2.55
Marathonbet
2.51
Betano
2.47
Superbet
2.45
Under
Pinnacle
1.50
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.49
10Bet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.45
Felgueiras 1932 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.1%
@ 9.02-2.3%
Under
91.9%
@ 1.04+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Marathonbet
9.90
10Bet
9.00
Superbet
8.40
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
Felgueiras 1932 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.1%
@ 34.00-98.9%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
34.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Farense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.62
0.62
0.71
0.57
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.70
0.45
0.73
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.17
1.25
0.25
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Felgueiras 1932) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Felgueiras 1932
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.60
0.43
0.57
0.69
0.62
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.75
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.54
0.50
0.42
0.50
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Farense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.2%
@ 1.31+4.3%
Under 0.5
24.8%
@ 3.19-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Under
Bet365
3.40
Betano
3.30
Marathonbet
3.16
1xBet
3.16
Superbet
3.15
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
37.4%
@ 2.43-0.7%
Under 1.5
62.6%
@ 1.50+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
William Hil
2.45
Superbet
2.42
Marathonbet
2.41
1xBet
2.41
Under
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.49
1xBet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.49
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.4%
@ 5.63-2.1%
Under 2.5
85.6%
@ 1.11+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
William Hil
6.00
Marathonbet
5.55
1xBet
5.55
Superbet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.08
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Farense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
59.4%
@ 1.82+8.6%
Under
40.6%
@ 1.88-8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.83
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
Under
Betano
1.93
Superbet
1.88
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.86
Farense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
19.6%
@ 5.14+1.6%
Under
80.4%
@ 1.13-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.35
Marathonbet
5.35
Superbet
5.10
Betano
4.75
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Farense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.7%
@ 13.25-2.5%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.02+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Felgueiras 1932 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
43.6%
@ 2.04-1.7%
Under
56.4%
@ 1.69+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.07
1xBet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.05
Betano
2.00
Under
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.68
1xBet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Felgueiras 1932 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
10.3%
@ 6.45-4.1%
Under
89.7%
@ 1.08+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.85
Marathonbet
6.85
Superbet
6.40
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Felgueiras 1932 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 16.38-3.9%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.02+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
21.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.1%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
94.8%
1.04
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Betfair
1.04
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.7%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
888Sport
1.04
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.9%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
91.3%
1.10
Betano
1.13
888Sport
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.9%
1.04
Betano
1.07
William Hil
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.8%
1.07
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.7%
1.08
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
88.1%
1.08
Bet365
1.09
Superbet
1.08
-
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
85.8%
1.18
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.20
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
+7.4%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
85.8%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.12
Betfair
1.10
-
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.6%
1.11
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.08
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.4%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
-1.6%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.2%
1.31
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
75.1%
1.30
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.9%
1.33
Superbet
1.37
1xBet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
-
+5.9%
-
Home under 1.5 goals
72.3%
1.47
888Sport
1.53
10Bet
1.53
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.48
+9.1%
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
72.1%
1.30
William Hil
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
+0.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Farense · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Claudio Falcão25%
Anthony Carter25%
Marco Matias14%
Derick Poloni14%
André Candeias12%
Diego Dorregaray0%
Rúben Fernandes0%
Alex Pinto0%
Rui Costa0%
Nikola Gjorgjev0%
Franco Romero0%
Jaime Pinto0%
Darío Poveda0%
Bruno Almeida0%
Yannick Semedo0%
Brian Araújo0%
Toni Herrero0%
Assane Ndiaye Dione0%
Fran Delgado0%
Balla Sangaré0%
Miguel Menino0%
Dário Miranda0%
Alysson Silva0%
Rafinha0%
Lucas D'Agrella0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Claudio Falcão75%
Alysson Silva67%
Franco Romero60%
Alex Pinto50%
André Candeias38%
Fran Delgado33%
Miguel Menino29%
Anthony Carter25%
Yannick Semedo25%
Brian Araújo25%
Rafinha25%
Lucas D'Agrella17%
Marco Matias14%
Jaime Pinto14%
Balla Sangaré12%
Rúben Fernandes11%
Diego Dorregaray0%
Rui Costa0%
Derick Poloni0%
Nikola Gjorgjev0%
Darío Poveda0%
Bruno Almeida0%
Toni Herrero0%
Assane Ndiaye Dione0%
Dário Miranda0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Toni Herrero20%
Derick Poloni14%
Bruno Almeida12%
Diego Dorregaray0%
Marco Matias0%
Claudio Falcão0%
Rúben Fernandes0%
Alex Pinto0%
Anthony Carter0%
Rui Costa0%
Nikola Gjorgjev0%
Franco Romero0%
Jaime Pinto0%
Darío Poveda0%
Yannick Semedo0%
Brian Araújo0%
Assane Ndiaye Dione0%
Fran Delgado0%
Balla Sangaré0%
Miguel Menino0%
Dário Miranda0%
André Candeias0%
Alysson Silva0%
Rafinha0%
Lucas D'Agrella0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Claudio Falcão38%
Marco Matias14%
Balla Sangaré12%
Diego Dorregaray0%
Rúben Fernandes0%
Alex Pinto0%
Anthony Carter0%
Rui Costa0%
Derick Poloni0%
Nikola Gjorgjev0%
Franco Romero0%
Jaime Pinto0%
Darío Poveda0%
Bruno Almeida0%
Yannick Semedo0%
Brian Araújo0%
Toni Herrero0%
Assane Ndiaye Dione0%
Fran Delgado0%
Miguel Menino0%
Dário Miranda0%
André Candeias0%
Alysson Silva0%
Rafinha0%
Lucas D'Agrella0%
Felgueiras 1932 · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mario Rivas44%
Pedro Rosas20%
Lucas Duarte11%
Gabi Pereira11%
Mateus Pasinato0%
Feliz Vaz0%
Diogo Casimiro0%
Landinho0%
Léo Teixeira0%
Filipe Cruz0%
Mathys Jean-Marie0%
Vasco Moreira0%
Eirô0%
Tiago Leite0%
João Reis Pinto0%
Felipe Scheibig0%
Berna0%
Dário0%
Tiago Parente0%
Afonso Silva0%
Beni Jetour0%
Michel Costa0%
Henrique Martins0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Filipe Cruz25%
Landinho20%
Vasco Moreira20%
Pedro Rosas20%
Léo Teixeira17%
Michel Costa17%
Henrique Martins17%
Dário14%
Lucas Duarte11%
Mateus Pasinato0%
Feliz Vaz0%
Diogo Casimiro0%
Mario Rivas0%
Mathys Jean-Marie0%
Gabi Pereira0%
Eirô0%
Tiago Leite0%
João Reis Pinto0%
Felipe Scheibig0%
Berna0%
Tiago Parente0%
Afonso Silva0%
Beni Jetour0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Feliz Vaz25%
Vasco Moreira20%
Pedro Rosas20%
Mateus Pasinato0%
Diogo Casimiro0%
Landinho0%
Léo Teixeira0%
Mario Rivas0%
Filipe Cruz0%
Lucas Duarte0%
Mathys Jean-Marie0%
Gabi Pereira0%
Eirô0%
Tiago Leite0%
João Reis Pinto0%
Felipe Scheibig0%
Berna0%
Dário0%
Tiago Parente0%
Afonso Silva0%
Beni Jetour0%
Michel Costa0%
Henrique Martins0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tiago Leite25%
Mario Rivas22%
Lucas Duarte22%
Vasco Moreira20%
Gabi Pereira11%
Mateus Pasinato0%
Feliz Vaz0%
Diogo Casimiro0%
Landinho0%
Léo Teixeira0%
Filipe Cruz0%
Mathys Jean-Marie0%
Eirô0%
João Reis Pinto0%
Felipe Scheibig0%
Berna0%
Pedro Rosas0%
Dário0%
Tiago Parente0%
Afonso Silva0%
Beni Jetour0%
Michel Costa0%
Henrique Martins0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
TOR (32)
€19m
SCB (23)
€17m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
FAR (24)
€8m
AVS (20)
€7m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
LL (19)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
ACA (11)
€2m
AMA (6)
€1m
Farense's squad is €3m more valuable than Felgueiras 1932's (€8m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FPB (10)
€13m
BB (9)
€9m
TOR (12)
€7m
VIZ (13)
€5m
SCB (9)
€5m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (10)
€3m
AVS (8)
€3m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
ACA (6)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
LL (6)
€1m
AMA (1)
€0m
Farense's attack is €2m more valuable than Felgueiras 1932's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
FPB (6)
€7m
SCB (5)
€5m
CHA (5)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
FAR (3)
€2m
AVS (2)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
LL (2)
€1m
AMA (3)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PEN (2)
€0m
ACA (1)
€0m
Farense and Felgueiras 1932 have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (10)
€13m
TOR (15)
€10m
FPB (12)
€9m
SCB (9)
€7m
TON (9)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (11)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
LL (11)
€3m
AVS (10)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
ACA (4)
€1m
AMA (2)
€0m
Farense's defence is €1m more valuable than Felgueiras 1932's (€4m vs €2m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
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Lusitânia Lourosa
Academica
Sporting CP B
Penafiel
Vizela
Benfica B
Portimonense
União de Leiria
Leixoes
AVS
Amarante
Tondela
FC Porto B
Torreense
Feirense
Chaves