FC Aarau are tipped to secure a home win, the most likely outcome according to the model. The match is expected to see a modest 2.9 goals on average, with the single most probable scoreline being 1-1, a 12.2% chance. Aarau’s home form shows they average 1.62 goals scored and 1.12 conceded against similarly ranked opposition, while Etoile Carouge, on the road, averages 1.55 goals scored and 1.27 conceded. The probabilities for the match result are 49% for a home win, 26% for a draw and 25% for an away win. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99%), Under 6.5 (97.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.8%), Under 5.5 (92.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (90.2%), Home +2 handicap (89.6%), Away under 2.5 goals (88.3%) and Under 4.5 (82.9%). Both sides are coming off victories, with Aarau beating Neuchatel Xamax FC 2-1 and Etoile Carouge defeating Rapperswil 2-1.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Aarau win
53.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge win
21.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Aarau
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.40
2.07
1.07
1.88
1.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.68
1.53
1.62
1.12
1.73
1.82
vs Weaker (11)
2.45
1.18
2.67
1.00
2.20
1.40
Clean sheet %
23% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Étoile Carouge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Étoile Carouge
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.43
1.13
1.33
1.53
1.53
vs Stronger (4)
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
1.23
1.35
1.07
1.29
1.42
1.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.5%
Under 1.5
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.6%
Under 2.5
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.2%
Under 3.5
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
57.5%
No
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.8%
1-0
8.5%
0-0
6.3%
3-1
6.0%
1-2
5.9%
2-2
5.5%
FC Aarau goals ↓
Étoile Carouge goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
4.7%
3.2%
1.2%
0.3%
1
8.5%
12%
5.9%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.8%
9.8%
5.5%
2.0%
0.6%
3
5.4%
6.0%
3.4%
1.2%
0.3%
4
2.5%
2.8%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Aarau goals (down), columns = Étoile Carouge goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
2.33
Yverdon Sport
2.00
SC Kriens
1.67
FC Winterthur
1.50
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
Étoile Carouge
1.33
FC Aarau
1.33
FC WIL 1900
0.83
Rapperswil
0.67
Stade Nyonnais
0.33
FC Aarau and Étoile Carouge are level in average points per game (both 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Winterthur
2.00
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.83
SC Kriens
1.67
Yverdon Sport
1.67
FC WIL 1900
1.50
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
Rapperswil
1.33
FC Aarau
1.33
Étoile Carouge
1.00
Stade Nyonnais
0.67
FC Aarau is 0.33 goals better than Étoile Carouge in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
0.50
SC Kriens
1.00
Yverdon Sport
1.00
Étoile Carouge
1.00
FC Winterthur
1.17
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
FC Aarau
1.67
Stade Nyonnais
1.83
Rapperswil
2.17
FC WIL 1900
2.67
FC Aarau is 0.67 goals worse than Étoile Carouge in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Aarau or Draw
78.3%
Avg Implied -
53%
25%
22%
covers FC Aarau + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau or Étoile Carouge
75.1%
Avg Implied -
53%
25%
22%
covers FC Aarau + Étoile Carouge
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Étoile Carouge
46.7%
Avg Implied -
53%
25%
22%
covers Draw + Étoile Carouge
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5
Over
84.1%
Under
15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5
Over
54.9%
Under
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5
Over
28.0%
Under
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 3.5
Over
11.5%
Under
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 0.5
Over
67.1%
Under
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 1.5
Over
30.6%
Under
69.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 2.5
Over
10.2%
Under
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 3.5
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Aarau, so a minus line means FC Aarau give that many goals of a start and Étoile Carouge receive them. At -1, FC Aarau must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Aarau win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Aarau)
FC Aarau -2
14.3%
Draw -2
16.6%
Étoile Carouge +2
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FC Aarau)
FC Aarau -1
31.0%
Draw -1
22.4%
Étoile Carouge +1
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FC Aarau)
FC Aarau +1
78.3%
Draw +1
13.1%
Étoile Carouge -1
8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FC Aarau)
FC Aarau +2
91.4%
Draw +2
6.1%
Étoile Carouge -2
2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Aarau
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.70
1.00
0.43
1.00
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.89
0.74
0.75
0.38
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (11)
1.18
0.64
1.33
0.50
1.00
0.80
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Étoile Carouge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Étoile Carouge
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.70
0.40
0.67
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.65
0.43
0.64
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Aarau
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.70
1.07
0.64
0.88
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.79
0.88
0.75
0.73
0.82
vs Weaker (11)
1.27
0.55
1.33
0.50
1.20
0.60
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Étoile Carouge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Étoile Carouge
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
0.73
0.67
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.69
0.64
0.64
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FW (25)
€6m
SL (24)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
YS (22)
€5m
NXF (26)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
RAP (24)
€4m
ÉC (23)
€4m
SN (21)
€3m
SK (16)
€3m
FC Aarau's squad is €1m more valuable than Étoile Carouge's (€6m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SL (9)
€3m
YS (10)
€3m
FW (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FW1 (9)
€1m
ÉC (6)
€1m
RAP (8)
€1m
SK (5)
€0m
FC Aarau and Étoile Carouge have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FW (7)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
RAP (6)
€2m
SL (5)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
ÉC (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
SK (3)
€1m
YS (3)
€1m
SN (3)
€0m
FC Aarau and Étoile Carouge have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€3m
SL (10)
€2m
FW (9)
€2m
YS (9)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
ÉC (12)
€2m
SK (8)
€2m
RAP (10)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FC Aarau and Étoile Carouge have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Switzerland: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Yverdon Sport
SC Kriens
FC Winterthur
Neuchatel Xamax FC
FC WIL 1900
Rapperswil
Stade Nyonnais