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FC Aarau vs FC Vaduz Result & Analysis

Date: 25/09/2023
Time: 17:30
Final 3-2
FC Aarau
FC Aarau
Vs
27%
24%
49%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Vaduz
FC Vaduz
Switzerland: Challenge League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Player market rates14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

FC Aarau win✓ Hit
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Vaduz win✗ Miss
48.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

FC AarauFC Aarau

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W11D22D10W01L23L31W22D02L02LH·FC 19/05A·YVE23/05H·LAU27/05H·BAD21/07A·FC 28/07H·NEU06/08A·BEL13/08A·FC 25/08H·STA01/09A·FC 22/09
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.531.571.291.561.75
vs Stronger (3)1.331.331.000.001.502.00
vs Similar (15)1.472.001.331.831.562.11
vs Weaker (12)1.751.001.861.001.601.00
Clean sheet %33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Vaduz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC VaduzFC Vaduz

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-661W12L11D02L23L21W32W11D60W40WA·NEU27/05H·NEM13/07A·NEM20/07H·FC 23/07A·FC 30/07H·STA06/08A·BAD13/08H·NEU27/08H·FC 03/09A·BEL22/09
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.701.401.331.472.071.33
vs Stronger (10)0.901.500.401.201.401.80
vs Similar (19)2.051.321.801.602.331.00
vs Weaker (1)3.002.00--3.002.00
Clean sheet %23% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.6%
Under 1.5
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.5%
Under 2.5
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
44.8%
Under 3.5
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.9%
No
33.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.3%
1-2
9.2%
2-1
6.8%
2-2
6.7%
0-2
6.3%
1-3
6.1%
0-1
5.5%
2-3
4.4%
FC Aarau goals ↓
FC Vaduz goals →
01234
04.2%5.5%6.3%4.2%2.1%
13.8%10%9.2%6.1%3.0%
23.4%6.8%6.7%4.4%2.2%
31.7%3.3%3.2%2.1%1.1%
40.6%1.2%1.2%0.8%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Aarau goals (down), columns = FC Vaduz goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Sion
2.19
FC Thun
2.11
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.36
FC Vaduz
1.36
FC WIL 1900
1.22
Stade Nyonnais
1.19
FC Aarau
1.19
Bellinzona
1.17
FC Schaffhausen
1.06
Baden
0.72
FC Aarau is 0.17 points worse than FC Vaduz in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 1.36).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Thun
2.03
FC Sion
2.00
FC Vaduz
1.86
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.53
FC Aarau
1.42
FC WIL 1900
1.33
Stade Nyonnais
1.25
Bellinzona
1.08
FC Schaffhausen
1.00
Baden
0.86
FC Aarau is 0.44 goals worse than FC Vaduz in terms of goals scored per game (1.42 vs 1.86).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Sion
0.64
FC Thun
1.06
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.25
Bellinzona
1.39
FC WIL 1900
1.44
FC Schaffhausen
1.53
FC Vaduz
1.53
Stade Nyonnais
1.61
FC Aarau
1.64
Baden
2.28
FC Aarau is 0.11 goals worse than FC Vaduz in terms of goals conceded per game (1.64 vs 1.53).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FC AarauFC Aarau

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W11D12L10W01L02L10W11D00D01LH·FC 19/05A·YVE23/05H·LAU27/05H·BAD21/07A·FC 28/07H·NEU06/08A·BEL13/08A·FC 25/08H·STA01/09A·FC 22/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.700.710.500.940.88
vs Stronger (3)1.330.331.000.001.500.50
vs Similar (15)0.601.000.330.670.781.22
vs Weaker (12)1.000.421.000.431.000.40
Clean sheet %50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Vaduz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC VaduzFC Vaduz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W11D01L01L11D01L00D00D20W10WA·NEU27/05H·NEM13/07A·NEM20/07H·FC 23/07A·FC 30/07H·STA06/08A·BAD13/08H·NEU27/08H·FC 03/09A·BEL22/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.470.270.530.730.40
vs Stronger (10)0.200.500.000.400.400.60
vs Similar (19)0.680.470.400.601.000.33
vs Weaker (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
Clean sheet %63% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vaduz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vaduz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vaduz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FC AarauFC Aarau

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D10W00D00D21W21W11D02L01LH·FC 19/05A·YVE23/05H·LAU27/05H·BAD21/07A·FC 28/07H·NEU06/08A·BEL13/08A·FC 25/08H·STA01/09A·FC 22/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.830.860.790.620.88
vs Stronger (3)0.001.000.000.000.001.50
vs Similar (15)0.871.001.001.170.780.89
vs Weaker (12)0.750.580.860.570.600.60
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Vaduz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC VaduzFC Vaduz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W01L10W01L12L20W32W11D40W30WA·NEU27/05H·NEM13/07A·NEM20/07H·FC 23/07A·FC 30/07H·STA06/08A·BAD13/08H·NEU27/08H·FC 03/09A·BEL22/09
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.931.070.931.330.93
vs Stronger (10)0.701.000.400.801.001.20
vs Similar (19)1.370.841.401.001.330.67
vs Weaker (1)3.002.00--3.002.00
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vaduz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vaduz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vaduz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.586.6%-------✓ Hit

ðŸŽ― 13. Player market rates

FC Vaduz · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
M. Monsberger33%
Julian Stark33%
Juan Cabrera33%
Lutfi Dalipi33%
D. Schwizer25%
MiloÅĄ Cocić17%
L. Schaffran0%
Dejan Sorgić0%
M. Hammerich0%
D. Simani0%
Liridon Berisha0%
Nicolas Hasler0%
Luca Mack0%
N. Lang0%
Dejan Đokić0%
Mischa Eberhard0%
D. Kasper0%
M. Sawadogo0%
Mattia Walker0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
D. Simani60%
Dejan Đokić50%
M. Monsberger33%
Julian Stark33%
Juan Cabrera33%
M. Sawadogo20%
Liridon Berisha17%
Nicolas Hasler17%
Luca Mack17%
Lutfi Dalipi17%
L. Schaffran0%
D. Schwizer0%
Dejan Sorgić0%
M. Hammerich0%
N. Lang0%
Mischa Eberhard0%
MiloÅĄ Cocić0%
D. Kasper0%
Mattia Walker0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lutfi Dalipi67%
Dejan Sorgić33%
Nicolas Hasler33%
M. Monsberger17%
L. Schaffran0%
D. Schwizer0%
M. Hammerich0%
D. Simani0%
Liridon Berisha0%
Luca Mack0%
N. Lang0%
Dejan Đokić0%
Mischa Eberhard0%
Julian Stark0%
MiloÅĄ Cocić0%
D. Kasper0%
Juan Cabrera0%
M. Sawadogo0%
Mattia Walker0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
M. Monsberger50%
Juan Cabrera33%
D. Simani20%
Lutfi Dalipi17%
L. Schaffran0%
D. Schwizer0%
Dejan Sorgić0%
M. Hammerich0%
Liridon Berisha0%
Nicolas Hasler0%
Luca Mack0%
N. Lang0%
Dejan Đokić0%
Mischa Eberhard0%
Julian Stark0%
MiloÅĄ Cocić0%
D. Kasper0%
M. Sawadogo0%
Mattia Walker0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (28)
€30m
FT (25)
€17m
FV (26)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
NXF (26)
€5m
BEL (34)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
SN (21)
€3m
FC Aarau and FC Vaduz have a similar squad value (both €6m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (10)
€15m
FT (7)
€4m
FV (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
BEL (11)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FW1 (9)
€1m
FC Aarau and FC Vaduz have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (6)
€6m
FT (8)
€5m
FV (8)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
BEL (8)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
SN (3)
€0m
FC Aarau's midfield is €1m less valuable than FC Vaduz's (€1m vs €2m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (12)
€9m
FT (10)
€8m
FA (13)
€3m
BEL (15)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FC Aarau and FC Vaduz have a similar defence value (both €3m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
FA wins
1
Draws
2
FV wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FC Aarau vs FC Vaduz · H/A from FA
DateH/AGameScore
14/05/23AFC Vaduz Vs FA0-1
02/04/23HFA Vs FC Vaduz0-2
16/10/22AFC Vaduz Vs FA4-0
15/07/22HFA Vs FC Vaduz1-1

FC AarauFC Aarau

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/09/23AFC Thun Vs FA2-0
01/09/23HFA Vs Stade Nyonnais0-2
25/08/23AFC Schaffhausen Vs FA2-2
13/08/23ABellinzona Vs FA1-3
06/08/23HFA Vs Neuchatel Xamax FC2-3
28/07/23AFC Sion Vs FA1-0
21/07/23HFA Vs Baden1-0
27/05/23HFA Vs Lausanne2-2
23/05/23AYverdon Sport Vs FA1-1
19/05/23HFA Vs FC Schaffhausen2-0

FC VaduzFC Vaduz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/09/23ABellinzona Vs FV0-4
03/09/23HFV Vs FC Schaffhausen6-0
27/08/23HFV Vs Neuchatel Xamax FC1-1
13/08/23ABaden Vs FV2-3
06/08/23HFV Vs Stade Nyonnais2-1
30/07/23AFC WIL 1900 Vs FV3-2
23/07/23HFV Vs FC Sion0-2
20/07/23ANeman Vs FV1-1
13/07/23HFV Vs Neman1-2
27/05/23ANeuchatel Xamax FC Vs FV1-6

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FC Aarau
FC Aarau
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDLL1.49
HomeWDWLL1.43
AwayDLWDL1.55
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%38%41%
AVG goals3.233.103.36
Over 1.5 %79%76%82%
Over 2.5 %60%52%68%
Over 3.5 %47%38%55%
Scored1.651.621.68
Conceded1.581.481.68
BTTS58%57%59%
Clean Sheet28%29%27%
Corners---
Cards---
FC Vaduz
FC Vaduz
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWW1.16
HomeLLWDW1.00
AwayWDLWW1.32
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%20%32%
AVG goals3.042.643.44
Over 1.5 %80%80%80%
Over 2.5 %54%52%56%
Over 3.5 %40%24%56%
Scored1.581.241.92
Conceded1.461.401.52
BTTS62%60%64%
Clean Sheet22%24%20%
Corners8.827.809.67
Cards4.734.804.67

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC SionFC Sion3679
64%
2.2
7223+49
2.6
78%
56%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
30
15692.00.6
-
2FC ThunFC Thun3676
64%
2.1
7338+35
3.1
78%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
4582.01.1
-
3FC VaduzFC Vaduz3649
36%
1.4
6755+12
3.4
81%
61%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.91.5
-
4Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC3649
31%
1.4
5545+10
2.8
86%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.51.2
-
5FC WIL 1900FC WIL 19003644
31%
1.2
4852-4
2.8
78%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.31.4
-
6FC AarauFC Aarau3643
33%
1.2
5159-8
3.1
83%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2131.41.6
-
7Stade NyonnaisStade Nyonnais3643
31%
1.2
4558-13
2.9
83%
44%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.21.6
-
8BellinzonaBellinzona3642
31%
1.2
3950-11
2.5
69%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.11.4
-
9FC SchaffhausenFC Schaffhausen3638
22%
1.1
3655-19
2.5
78%
47%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
10BadenBaden3626
17%
0.7
3182-51
3.1
86%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.3
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Switzerland: Challenge League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →

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