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FC Aarau vs FC Vaduz Result & Analysis

Date: 13/09/2025
Time: 16:00
Final 1-0
FC Aarau
FC Aarau
Vs
48%
28%
24%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Vaduz
FC Vaduz
Switzerland: Challenge League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FC Aarau win✓ Hit
48.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Vaduz win✗ Miss
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FC AarauFC Aarau

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-531W11D04L10W31W20W10W54W30W10WA·ÉTO16/05H·STA23/05A·GRA27/05H·GRA30/05A·FC 01/08H·NEU09/08H·BEL13/08A·STA22/08H·STA25/08A·RAP29/08← Super LeagueChallenge League →
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.831.171.730.871.931.47
vs Stronger (3)1.001.001.000.001.001.50
vs Similar (14)1.931.501.751.382.171.67
vs Weaker (13)1.920.851.830.332.001.29
Clean sheet %33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Vaduz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC VaduzFC Vaduz

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-601L21W10W11D03L30W01L60W11D21WH·DUN24/07H·YVE27/07A·DUN31/07A·ÉTO03/08A·AZ 07/08H·STA10/08H·AZ 14/08H·BEL22/08A·NEU25/08H·FC 31/08
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.171.750.881.071.50
vs Stronger (5)1.202.201.671.670.503.00
vs Similar (25)1.480.961.770.691.171.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%222%314%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
73.3%
Under 1.5
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.6%
Under 2.5
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.1%
Under 3.5
74.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.9%
No
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-0 ✓
10.9%
2-1
9.3%
2-0
9.3%
0-0
9.1%
0-1
6.7%
1-2
6.1%
3-1
4.8%
FC Aarau goals ↓
FC Vaduz goals →
01234
09.1%6.7%4.0%1.3%0.3%
111%13%6.1%2.0%0.5%
29.3%9.3%4.7%1.6%0.4%
34.8%4.8%2.4%0.8%0.2%
41.8%1.8%0.9%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Aarau goals (down), columns = FC Vaduz goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Vaduz
2.25
FC Aarau
2.22
Yverdon Sport
1.86
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.39
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.36
Rapperswil
1.22
Étoile Carouge
1.11
FC WIL 1900
1.11
Stade Nyonnais
0.78
Bellinzona
0.64
FC Aarau is 0.03 points worse than FC Vaduz in terms of average points per game (2.22 vs 2.25).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Aarau
2.14
Yverdon Sport
2.08
FC Vaduz
2.08
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.64
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.53
Rapperswil
1.44
Étoile Carouge
1.28
Bellinzona
1.11
FC WIL 1900
1.08
Stade Nyonnais
0.92
FC Aarau is 0.06 goals better than FC Vaduz in terms of goals scored per game (2.14 vs 2.08).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Vaduz
1.14
FC Aarau
1.31
Yverdon Sport
1.33
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.42
Étoile Carouge
1.50
FC WIL 1900
1.53
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.56
Stade Nyonnais
1.67
Rapperswil
1.72
Bellinzona
2.14
FC Aarau is 0.17 goals worse than FC Vaduz in terms of goals conceded per game (1.31 vs 1.14).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FC AarauFC Aarau

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D01L02L00D20W10W00D21W10W00DA·ÉTO16/05H·STA23/05A·GRA27/05H·GRA30/05A·FC 01/08H·NEU09/08H·BEL13/08A·STA22/08H·STA25/08A·RAP29/08← Super LeagueChallenge League →
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.630.670.530.730.73
vs Stronger (3)0.670.671.000.000.501.00
vs Similar (14)0.790.790.620.751.000.83
vs Weaker (13)0.620.460.670.330.570.57
Clean sheet %50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Vaduz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC VaduzFC Vaduz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W00D01L01L20W00D30W01L20WH·DUN24/07H·YVE27/07A·DUN31/07A·ÉTO03/08A·AZ 07/08H·STA10/08H·AZ 14/08H·BEL22/08A·NEU25/08H·FC 31/08
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.431.000.190.360.71
vs Stronger (5)0.800.401.330.000.001.00
vs Similar (25)0.680.440.920.230.420.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vaduz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vaduz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vaduz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FC AarauFC Aarau

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W10W02L10W11D10W10W33D20W10WA·ÉTO16/05H·STA23/05A·GRA27/05H·GRA30/05A·FC 01/08H·NEU09/08H·BEL13/08A·STA22/08H·STA25/08A·RAP29/08← Super LeagueChallenge League →
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.531.070.331.200.73
vs Stronger (3)0.330.330.000.000.500.50
vs Similar (14)1.140.711.120.621.170.83
vs Weaker (13)1.310.381.170.001.430.71
Clean sheet %67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Vaduz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC VaduzFC Vaduz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L11D10W10W02L10W01L30W10W01LH·DUN24/07H·YVE27/07A·DUN31/07A·ÉTO03/08A·AZ 07/08H·STA10/08H·AZ 14/08H·BEL22/08A·NEU25/08H·FC 31/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.730.750.690.710.79
vs Stronger (5)0.401.800.331.670.502.00
vs Similar (25)0.800.520.850.460.750.58
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vaduz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vaduz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vaduz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.574.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.573.3%-------✗ Miss

🎽 13. Player market rates

FC Vaduz · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Marcel Monsberger40%
Juan Cabrera40%
Lutfi Dalipi40%
Dominik Schwizer33%
Julian Stark20%
Miloš Cocić20%
Leon Schaffran0%
Dejan Sorgić0%
Mats Hammerich0%
Denis Simani0%
Liridon Berisha0%
Nicolas Hasler0%
Luca Mack0%
Niklas Lang0%
Dejan Đokić0%
Mischa Eberhard0%
Daniel Kasper0%
Malik Sawadogo0%
Mattia Walker0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Denis Simani50%
Julian Stark40%
Juan Cabrera40%
Dejan Đokić33%
Malik Sawadogo25%
Marcel Monsberger20%
Nicolas Hasler20%
Luca Mack20%
Lutfi Dalipi20%
Leon Schaffran0%
Dominik Schwizer0%
Dejan Sorgić0%
Mats Hammerich0%
Liridon Berisha0%
Niklas Lang0%
Mischa Eberhard0%
Miloš Cocić0%
Daniel Kasper0%
Mattia Walker0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lutfi Dalipi60%
Nicolas Hasler40%
Dejan Sorgić33%
Marcel Monsberger20%
Leon Schaffran0%
Dominik Schwizer0%
Mats Hammerich0%
Denis Simani0%
Liridon Berisha0%
Luca Mack0%
Niklas Lang0%
Dejan Đokić0%
Mischa Eberhard0%
Julian Stark0%
Miloš Cocić0%
Daniel Kasper0%
Juan Cabrera0%
Malik Sawadogo0%
Mattia Walker0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Marcel Monsberger60%
Juan Cabrera40%
Lutfi Dalipi20%
Leon Schaffran0%
Dominik Schwizer0%
Dejan Sorgić0%
Mats Hammerich0%
Denis Simani0%
Liridon Berisha0%
Nicolas Hasler0%
Luca Mack0%
Niklas Lang0%
Dejan Đokić0%
Mischa Eberhard0%
Julian Stark0%
Miloš Cocić0%
Daniel Kasper0%
Malik Sawadogo0%
Mattia Walker0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SL (24)
€6m
FV (26)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
YS (22)
€5m
NXF (26)
€5m
BEL (34)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
RAP (24)
€4m
ÉC (23)
€4m
SN (21)
€3m
FC Aarau and FC Vaduz have a similar squad value (both €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SL (9)
€3m
YS (10)
€3m
FV (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
BEL (11)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FW1 (9)
€1m
ÉC (6)
€1m
RAP (8)
€1m
FC Aarau and FC Vaduz have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FV (8)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
RAP (6)
€2m
BEL (8)
€1m
SL (5)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
ÉC (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
YS (3)
€1m
SN (3)
€0m
FC Aarau's midfield is €1m less valuable than FC Vaduz's (€1m vs €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€3m
SL (10)
€2m
BEL (15)
€2m
YS (9)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
ÉC (12)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
RAP (10)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FC Aarau and FC Vaduz have a similar defence value (both €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
FA wins
3
Draws
1
FV wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FC Aarau vs FC Vaduz · H/A from FA
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/25HFA Vs FC Vaduz2-2
23/02/25AFC Vaduz Vs FA0-1
05/10/24HFA Vs FC Vaduz0-0
20/09/24AFC Vaduz Vs FA2-5
03/05/24AFC Vaduz Vs FA2-1
26/01/24HFA Vs FC Vaduz1-0
22/10/23AFC Vaduz Vs FA2-2
25/09/23HFA Vs FC Vaduz3-2

FC AarauFC Aarau

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/25ARapperswil Vs FA0-1
25/08/25HFA Vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy3-0
22/08/25AStade Nyonnais Vs FA4-5
13/08/25HFA Vs Bellinzona1-0
09/08/25HFA Vs Neuchatel Xamax FC2-0
01/08/25AFC WIL 1900 Vs FA1-3
30/05/25HFA Vs Grasshoppers1-0
27/05/25AGrasshoppers Vs FA4-0
23/05/25HFA Vs Stade Nyonnais1-1
16/05/25AÉtoile Carouge Vs FA1-3

FC VaduzFC Vaduz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
31/08/25HFV Vs FC WIL 19002-1
25/08/25ANeuchatel Xamax FC Vs FV1-1
22/08/25HFV Vs Bellinzona6-0
14/08/25HFV Vs AZ Alkmaar0-1
10/08/25HFV Vs Stade Nyonnais3-0
07/08/25AAZ Alkmaar Vs FV3-0
03/08/25AÉtoile Carouge Vs FV1-1
31/07/25ADungannon Swifts Vs FV0-1
27/07/25HFV Vs Yverdon Sport2-1
24/07/25HFV Vs Dungannon Swifts0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FC Aarau
FC Aarau
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.70
HomeDWWWW1.56
AwayWLWWW1.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%44%52%
AVG goals3.062.563.56
Over 1.5 %80%72%88%
Over 2.5 %60%52%68%
Over 3.5 %36%28%44%
Scored1.701.322.08
Conceded1.361.241.48
BTTS64%48%80%
Clean Sheet30%44%16%
Corners---
Cards5.00-5.00
FC Vaduz
FC Vaduz
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDW1.40
HomeWWLWW1.96
AwayLWDLD0.79
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%58%12%
AVG goals2.863.002.71
Over 1.5 %72%69%75%
Over 2.5 %54%62%46%
Over 3.5 %36%38%33%
Scored1.441.851.00
Conceded1.421.151.71
BTTS58%58%58%
Clean Sheet24%27%21%
Corners7.507.008.00
Cards6.509.004.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC VaduzFC Vaduz3681
69%
2.2
7541+34
3.2
81%
64%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2222.11.1
-
2FC AarauFC Aarau3680
69%
2.2
7747+30
3.4
81%
69%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2132.11.3
-
3Yverdon SportYverdon Sport3667
56%
1.9
7548+27
3.4
83%
75%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3122.11.3
-
4Stade Lausanne-OuchyStade Lausanne-Ouchy3650
39%
1.4
5951+8
3.1
89%
64%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3121.61.4
-
5Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC3649
39%
1.4
5556-1
3.1
83%
67%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.51.6
-
6RapperswilRapperswil3644
39%
1.2
5262-10
3.2
81%
67%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1221.41.7
-
7Étoile CarougeÉtoile Carouge3640
28%
1.1
4654-8
2.8
83%
58%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.31.5
-
8FC WIL 1900FC WIL 19003640
28%
1.1
3955-16
2.6
69%
47%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.11.5
-
9Stade NyonnaisStade Nyonnais3628
14%
0.8
3360-27
2.6
64%
44%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1010.91.7
-
10BellinzonaBellinzona3623
14%
0.6
4077-37
3.2
81%
61%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.12.1
-
Switzerland: Challenge League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →

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