The model favours a home win, with a 43% chance of FC Aarau triumphing, 27% for a draw and 31% for FC WIL 1900 to lift the trophy. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a moderately high-scoring affair, yet the most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, carrying a 12.5% probability. Aarau’s home form shows they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similarly ranked opponents, while WIL 1900, on the road, averages 1.58 goals for and 1.08 against the same tier. Both sides have recently finished on a draw, each having settled for 2-2 against the other. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals carries an 80% probability, signalling a good chance of at least two goals in the match. No edge percentage is attached to this pick.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, a home win for FC Aarau, failed to materialise as the game finished 2-4 in favour of FC WIL 1900, extending their recent run of draws and losses. The model had given the home side a 43% chance of triumph, but the outcome proved wrong. The only suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals, hit with an 80% probability, reflecting the eight-goal tally. The model’s prediction of a 2-goal total was incorrect, and the most likely scoreline of 1-1 (24%) did not occur. The match delivered a clear upset, with the away side overturning the odds and securing a decisive win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Aarau win✗ Miss
42.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC WIL 1900 win✓ Hit
30.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Aarau
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.03
1.43
0.86
2.06
1.19
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (13)
1.77
1.23
1.29
1.00
2.33
1.50
vs Weaker (14)
1.93
0.86
1.67
0.83
2.12
0.88
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC WIL 1900) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC WIL 1900
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.47
1.56
1.50
1.50
1.43
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
2.50
1.00
1.50
1.00
3.50
vs Similar (26)
1.62
1.31
1.64
1.50
1.58
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.0%
Under 1.5
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.8%
Under 2.5
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.5%
Under 3.5
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.6%
No
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
2-1
9.1%
1-2
7.6%
1-0
7.5%
2-0
6.9%
0-0
6.5%
2-2
6.0%
0-1
6.0%
FC Aarau goals ↓
FC WIL 1900 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
6.0%
4.7%
2.1%
0.7%
1
7.5%
13%
7.6%
3.3%
1.1%
2
6.9%
9.1%
6.0%
2.7%
0.9%
3
3.6%
4.8%
3.2%
1.4%
0.5%
4
1.5%
1.9%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Aarau goals (down), columns = FC WIL 1900 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Thun
2.00
FC Aarau
1.69
Étoile Carouge
1.50
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.47
FC Vaduz
1.42
FC WIL 1900
1.39
Bellinzona
1.31
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.14
Stade Nyonnais
1.00
FC Schaffhausen
0.78
FC Aarau is 0.31 points better than FC WIL 1900 in terms of average points per game (1.69 vs 1.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Thun
1.94
FC Aarau
1.75
Étoile Carouge
1.61
FC WIL 1900
1.61
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.58
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.50
Bellinzona
1.33
FC Vaduz
1.33
Stade Nyonnais
1.22
FC Schaffhausen
1.11
FC Aarau is 0.14 goals better than FC WIL 1900 in terms of goals scored per game (1.75 vs 1.61).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Thun
1.08
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.19
FC Aarau
1.25
Étoile Carouge
1.31
FC Vaduz
1.36
Bellinzona
1.58
FC WIL 1900
1.58
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.81
FC Schaffhausen
1.92
Stade Nyonnais
1.92
FC Aarau is 0.33 goals better than FC WIL 1900 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.58).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Aarau
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.63
0.64
0.50
1.06
0.75
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.77
0.85
0.43
0.57
1.17
1.17
vs Weaker (14)
1.00
0.43
0.83
0.50
1.12
0.38
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FC WIL 1900) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC WIL 1900
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.62
0.88
0.79
0.50
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.77
0.69
0.71
0.93
0.83
0.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC WIL 1900 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC WIL 1900 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC WIL 1900 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Aarau
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.40
0.79
0.36
1.00
0.44
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.38
0.86
0.43
1.17
0.33
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.43
0.83
0.33
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (FC WIL 1900) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC WIL 1900
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.77
0.94
0.62
0.71
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.75
1.00
1.00
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (26)
0.85
0.62
0.93
0.57
0.75
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC WIL 1900 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC WIL 1900 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC WIL 1900 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (25)
€17m
SL (24)
€6m
FV (26)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
NXF (26)
€5m
BEL (34)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
ÉC (23)
€4m
SN (21)
€3m
FC Aarau's squad is €1m more valuable than FC WIL 1900's (€6m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (7)
€4m
SL (9)
€3m
FV (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
BEL (11)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FW1 (9)
€1m
ÉC (6)
€1m
FC Aarau and FC WIL 1900 have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (8)
€5m
FV (8)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
BEL (8)
€1m
SL (5)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
ÉC (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
SN (3)
€0m
FC Aarau and FC WIL 1900 have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (10)
€8m
FA (13)
€3m
SL (10)
€2m
BEL (15)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
ÉC (12)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FC Aarau's defence is €1m more valuable than FC WIL 1900's (€3m vs €2m).
Switzerland: Challenge League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Thun
Étoile Carouge
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
FC Vaduz
Bellinzona
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Stade Nyonnais
FC Schaffhausen