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FC Aarau vs FC WIL 1900 Prediction & Stats

Date: 07/11/2026
Time: 16:00
FC Aarau
FC Aarau
Vs
54%
24%
22%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC WIL 1900
FC WIL 1900
Switzerland: Challenge League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

FC Aarau are favoured to win this Challenge League clash, with a 55% chance of triumph, a 24% draw probability and a 22% chance for FC WIL 1900. The model expects a lively 3.1-goal affair, most likely totaling three goals. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11% probability. At home, Aarau have averaged 1.62 goals scored and 1.12 conceded against similar opposition, while WIL 1900, on the road, have managed 1.46 goals scored and 1.62 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.8%), Under 6.5 (95.8%), Home +2 handicap (91.2%), Under 5.5 (90.0%), Away under 2.5 goals (88.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (86.3%) and Home over 0.5 goals (86.0%). Aarau are coming off a win, while WIL 1900 return from a draw.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FC Aarau win
54.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC WIL 1900 win
21.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FC AarauFC Aarau

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W22D00D11D03L11D21W12L21W22DA·FC 11/05H·YVE15/05H·GRA18/05A·GRA21/05A·ÉTO24/07H·STA01/08H·STA07/08A·YVE23/08H·NEU28/08A·FC 31/08← Super LeagueChallenge League →
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.971.402.071.071.881.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.681.531.621.121.731.82
vs Weaker (11)2.451.182.671.002.201.40
Clean sheet %23% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (FC WIL 1900) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC WIL 1900FC WIL 1900

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W01L42W13L54W12L05L02L11D22DA·STA01/05H·YVE08/05A·BEL11/05H·FC 15/05A·RAP24/07H·NEU31/07A·FC 07/08H·SC 22/08A·YVE28/08H·FC 31/08
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.601.271.731.331.47
vs Stronger (4)0.751.501.002.500.500.50
vs Similar (26)1.381.621.311.621.461.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%012%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.2%
Under 1.5
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.9%
Under 2.5
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.6%
Under 3.5
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.7%
No
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.3%
1-0
7.4%
3-1
6.4%
1-2
5.9%
2-2
5.8%
3-0
5.4%
FC Aarau goals ↓
FC WIL 1900 goals →
01234
05.3%4.1%3.0%1.2%0.4%
17.4%11%5.9%2.3%0.7%
28.3%9.8%5.8%2.3%0.7%
35.4%6.4%3.8%1.5%0.4%
42.7%3.1%1.9%0.7%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Aarau goals (down), columns = FC WIL 1900 goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
2.33
Yverdon Sport
2.00
SC Kriens
1.67
FC Winterthur
1.50
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
Étoile Carouge
1.33
FC Aarau
1.33
FC WIL 1900
0.83
Rapperswil
0.67
Stade Nyonnais
0.33
FC Aarau is 0.50 points better than FC WIL 1900 in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 0.83).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Winterthur
2.00
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.83
SC Kriens
1.67
Yverdon Sport
1.67
FC WIL 1900
1.50
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
Rapperswil
1.33
FC Aarau
1.33
Étoile Carouge
1.00
Stade Nyonnais
0.67
FC Aarau is 0.17 goals worse than FC WIL 1900 in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
0.50
SC Kriens
1.00
Yverdon Sport
1.00
Étoile Carouge
1.00
FC Winterthur
1.17
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
FC Aarau
1.67
Stade Nyonnais
1.83
Rapperswil
2.17
FC WIL 1900
2.67
FC Aarau is 1.00 goals better than FC WIL 1900 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 2.67).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Aarau or Draw
78.3%
Avg Implied -
54%
24%
22%
covers FC Aarau + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau or FC WIL 1900
76.2%
Avg Implied -
54%
24%
22%
covers FC Aarau + FC WIL 1900
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FC WIL 1900
45.5%
Avg Implied -
54%
24%
22%
covers Draw + FC WIL 1900
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5
Over
86.0%
Under
14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5
Over
58.4%
Under
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5
Over
31.3%
Under
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 3.5
Over
13.6%
Under
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC WIL 1900 over/under 0.5
Over
69.4%
Under
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC WIL 1900 over/under 1.5
Over
33.2%
Under
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC WIL 1900 over/under 2.5
Over
11.7%
Under
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC WIL 1900 over/under 3.5
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to FC Aarau, so a minus line means FC Aarau give that many goals of a start and FC WIL 1900 receive them. At -1, FC Aarau must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Aarau win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Aarau)
FC Aarau -2
15.7%
Draw -2
16.9%
FC WIL 1900 +2
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FC Aarau)
FC Aarau -1
32.6%
Draw -1
21.9%
FC WIL 1900 +1
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FC Aarau)
FC Aarau +1
78.3%
Draw +1
12.8%
FC WIL 1900 -1
8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FC Aarau)
FC Aarau +2
91.1%
Draw +2
6.1%
FC WIL 1900 -2
2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FC AarauFC Aarau

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D21W00D11D00D10W10W02L00D20WA·FC 11/05H·YVE15/05H·GRA18/05A·GRA21/05A·ÉTO24/07H·STA01/08H·STA07/08A·YVE23/08H·NEU28/08A·FC 31/08← Super LeagueChallenge League →
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.701.000.431.000.94
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.890.740.750.381.001.00
vs Weaker (11)1.180.641.330.501.000.80
Clean sheet %53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FC WIL 1900) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC WIL 1900FC WIL 1900

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L11D02L32W11D03L01L11D02LA·STA01/05H·YVE08/05A·BEL11/05H·FC 15/05A·RAP24/07H·NEU31/07A·FC 07/08H·SC 22/08A·YVE28/08H·FC 31/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.870.730.870.670.87
vs Stronger (4)0.750.501.000.500.500.50
vs Similar (26)0.690.920.690.920.690.92
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC WIL 1900 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC WIL 1900 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC WIL 1900 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FC AarauFC Aarau

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L00D00D03L01L11D10W21W02LA·FC 11/05H·YVE15/05H·GRA18/05A·GRA21/05A·ÉTO24/07H·STA01/08H·STA07/08A·YVE23/08H·NEU28/08A·FC 31/08← Super LeagueChallenge League →
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.701.070.640.880.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.790.790.880.750.730.82
vs Weaker (11)1.270.551.330.501.200.60
Clean sheet %50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FC WIL 1900) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC WIL 1900FC WIL 1900

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D31W11D22D01L02L01L00D20WA·STA01/05H·YVE08/05A·BEL11/05H·FC 15/05A·RAP24/07H·NEU31/07A·FC 07/08H·SC 22/08A·YVE28/08H·FC 31/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.730.530.870.670.60
vs Stronger (4)0.001.000.002.000.000.00
vs Similar (26)0.690.690.620.690.770.69
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC WIL 1900 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC WIL 1900 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC WIL 1900 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.5%-------
Away under 3.5 goals96.8%-------
Under 6.595.9%-------
Home +2 handicap91.1%-------
Under 5.590.1%-------
Away under 2.5 goals88.3%-------
Home under 3.5 goals86.4%-------
Home over 0.5 goals86.0%-------
Over 1.583.2%-------
Under 4.579.0%-------
Home or Draw78.3%-------
Home +1 handicap78.3%-------
Home or Away76.2%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FW (25)
€6m
SL (24)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
YS (22)
€5m
NXF (26)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
RAP (24)
€4m
ÉC (23)
€4m
SN (21)
€3m
SK (16)
€3m
FC Aarau's squad is €1m more valuable than FC WIL 1900's (€6m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SL (9)
€3m
YS (10)
€3m
FW (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FW1 (9)
€1m
ÉC (6)
€1m
RAP (8)
€1m
SK (5)
€0m
FC Aarau and FC WIL 1900 have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FW (7)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
RAP (6)
€2m
SL (5)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
ÉC (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
SK (3)
€1m
YS (3)
€1m
SN (3)
€0m
FC Aarau and FC WIL 1900 have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€3m
SL (10)
€2m
FW (9)
€2m
YS (9)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
ÉC (12)
€2m
SK (8)
€2m
RAP (10)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FC Aarau's defence is €1m more valuable than FC WIL 1900's (€3m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
FA wins
5
Draws
1
FW1 wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FC Aarau vs FC WIL 1900 · H/A from FA
DateH/AGameScore
31/08/26AFC WIL 1900 Vs FA2-2
25/04/26AFC WIL 1900 Vs FA2-2
07/02/26HFA Vs FC WIL 19002-2
24/10/25HFA Vs FC WIL 19002-0
01/08/25AFC WIL 1900 Vs FA1-3
09/05/25HFA Vs FC WIL 19002-4
16/03/25AFC WIL 1900 Vs FA2-2
24/11/24HFA Vs FC WIL 19001-1

FC AarauFC Aarau

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
31/08/26AFC WIL 1900 Vs FA2-2
28/08/26HFA Vs Neuchatel Xamax FC2-1
23/08/26AYverdon Sport Vs FA2-1
07/08/26HFA Vs Stade Nyonnais2-1
01/08/26HFA Vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy1-1
24/07/26AÉtoile Carouge Vs FA3-0
21/05/26AGrasshoppers Vs FA1-1
18/05/26HFA Vs Grasshoppers0-0
15/05/26HFA Vs Yverdon Sport2-2
11/05/26AFC Vaduz Vs FA1-2

FC WIL 1900FC WIL 1900

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
31/08/26HFW1 Vs FC Aarau2-2
28/08/26AYverdon Sport Vs FW11-1
22/08/26HFW1 Vs SC Kriens0-2
07/08/26AFC Winterthur Vs FW15-0
31/07/26HFW1 Vs Neuchatel Xamax FC1-2
24/07/26ARapperswil Vs FW14-5
15/05/26HFW1 Vs FC Vaduz1-3
11/05/26ABellinzona Vs FW12-4
08/05/26HFW1 Vs Yverdon Sport0-1
01/05/26AStade Nyonnais Vs FW10-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FC Aarau
FC Aarau
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 3 Wins / 5 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLWD1.94
HomeDDDWW2.12
AwayWDLLD1.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %58%64%52%
AVG goals3.282.763.80
Over 1.5 %82%72%92%
Over 2.5 %68%52%84%
Over 3.5 %36%24%48%
Scored1.881.801.96
Conceded1.400.961.84
BTTS66%52%80%
Clean Sheet28%44%12%
Corners14.5011.0018.00
Cards6.677.006.50
FC WIL 1900
FC WIL 1900
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDD1.18
HomeLLLLD1.04
AwayWWWLD1.32
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%24%36%
AVG goals3.062.923.20
Over 1.5 %78%72%84%
Over 2.5 %54%56%52%
Over 3.5 %44%48%40%
Scored1.281.241.32
Conceded1.781.681.88
BTTS52%56%48%
Clean Sheet26%24%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Stade Lausanne-OuchyStade Lausanne-Ouchy614
67%
2.3
113+8
2.3
100%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3121.80.5
-
2Yverdon SportYverdon Sport612
50%
2.0
106+4
2.7
100%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3121.71.0
-
3SC KriensSC Kriens610
50%
1.7
106+4
2.7
100%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0121.71.0
-
4FC WinterthurFC Winterthur69
33%
1.5
127+5
3.2
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2222.01.2
-
5Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC69
50%
1.5
99+0
3.0
83%
83%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.51.5
-
6Étoile CarougeÉtoile Carouge68
33%
1.3
66+0
2.0
67%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.01.0
-
7FC AarauFC Aarau68
33%
1.3
810-2
3.0
100%
83%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2131.31.7
-
8FC WIL 1900FC WIL 190065
17%
0.8
916-7
4.2
100%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.52.7
-
9RapperswilRapperswil64
17%
0.7
813-5
3.5
100%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1221.32.2
-
10Stade NyonnaisStade Nyonnais62
0%
0.3
411-7
2.5
83%
67%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1010.71.8
-
Switzerland: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →

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