The model favours a home win, with a 49% chance for FC Aarau, 26% for a draw and 26% for Neuchatel Xamax FC to win. The expected total of goals is 3.0, but the most probable total is 2, with a 24% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 12% probability. FC Aarau, playing at home against a weaker opponent, averages 0.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Neuchatel Xamax FC, on the road against a stronger side, averages 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals carries an 80.8% probability. The final score of the last match was 3-3, ending in a draw, with FC Aarau coming off a 2-2 draw against FC WIL 1900 and Neuchatel Xamax FC returning from three consecutive defeats, losing 1-2 to Yverdon Sport.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, FC Aarau, failed to deliver, as the match finished 3-3, a draw that stunned the Challenge League crowd. The model had tipped a home win with a 49% probability, but that call was wrong. The game’s final score of 3-3 matched the actual result of a draw, extending FC Aarau’s recent form of D W L W D after a 2-2 draw with FC WIL 1900, while Neuchatel Xamax FC, after three straight defeats, ended with a 1-2 loss to Yverdon Sport. The model’s single suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals at 80.8%, was a hit, confirming the high-scoring nature of the encounter.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Aarau win✗ Miss
48.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
25.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC win✗ Miss
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Aarau
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.75
1.58
1.50
1.67
2.00
1.50
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (6)
1.50
2.17
1.75
1.75
1.00
3.00
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
2.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.08
1.75
1.50
1.33
0.67
2.17
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (7)
1.14
1.57
2.00
0.67
0.50
2.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
8% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.8%
Under 1.5
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.1%
Under 2.5
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.7%
Under 3.5
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.4%
No
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
2-1
9.6%
1-0
7.9%
2-0
7.9%
1-2
6.7%
0-0
6.2%
2-2
5.9%
3-1
5.6%
FC Aarau goals ↓
Neuchatel Xamax FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
5.1%
3.8%
1.6%
0.5%
1
7.9%
12%
6.7%
2.7%
0.8%
2
7.9%
9.6%
5.9%
2.4%
0.7%
3
4.6%
5.6%
3.4%
1.4%
0.4%
4
2.0%
2.5%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Aarau goals (down), columns = Neuchatel Xamax FC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Yverdon Sport
1.83
Lausanne
1.69
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.67
FC Aarau
1.58
FC WIL 1900
1.56
FC Thun
1.36
FC Schaffhausen
1.22
Bellinzona
1.03
FC Vaduz
1.03
Neuchatel Xamax FC
0.67
FC Aarau is 0.92 points better than Neuchatel Xamax FC in terms of average points per game (1.58 vs 0.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.94
Yverdon Sport
1.78
FC Aarau
1.75
FC WIL 1900
1.72
FC Thun
1.72
Lausanne
1.61
FC Vaduz
1.50
FC Schaffhausen
1.42
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.17
Bellinzona
1.06
FC Aarau is 0.58 goals better than Neuchatel Xamax FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.75 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lausanne
1.19
FC WIL 1900
1.44
Yverdon Sport
1.47
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.47
FC Thun
1.53
FC Vaduz
1.56
FC Aarau
1.58
FC Schaffhausen
1.64
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.81
Bellinzona
1.97
FC Aarau is 0.22 goals better than Neuchatel Xamax FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.58 vs 1.81).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Aarau
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.58
0.75
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.83
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (6)
0.67
1.17
1.00
0.75
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.25
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
58% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.75
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.83
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (7)
0.86
0.43
1.33
0.00
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
42% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Aarau
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.83
0.83
1.00
1.50
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
1.50
2.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (6)
0.83
1.00
0.75
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.25
0.00
1.00
1.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.08
0.50
0.83
0.17
1.33
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (7)
0.29
1.14
0.67
0.67
0.00
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
25% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAU (23)
€27m
FT (25)
€17m
SL (24)
€6m
FV (26)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
YS (22)
€5m
NXF (26)
€5m
BEL (34)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
FC Aarau and Neuchatel Xamax FC have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAU (8)
€9m
FT (7)
€4m
SL (9)
€3m
YS (10)
€3m
FV (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
BEL (11)
€2m
FW1 (9)
€1m
FC Aarau and Neuchatel Xamax FC have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAU (5)
€5m
FT (8)
€5m
FV (8)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
BEL (8)
€1m
SL (5)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
YS (3)
€1m
FC Aarau and Neuchatel Xamax FC have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAU (10)
€13m
FT (10)
€8m
FA (13)
€3m
SL (10)
€2m
BEL (15)
€2m
YS (9)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
FC Aarau and Neuchatel Xamax FC have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Switzerland: Challenge League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Yverdon Sport
Lausanne
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
FC WIL 1900
FC Thun
FC Schaffhausen
FC Vaduz
Bellinzona