FC Aarau vs Neuchatel Xamax FC Result & Analysis

Date: 28/08/2026

Time: 18:15

Final 2-1

FC Aarau

54%

25%

21%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Neuchatel Xamax FC

Switzerland: Challenge League

Referee: -

1 Model Analysis 2 Goal Analysis 3 Team Strengths Analysis 4 Props Analysis 5 Double Chance 6 Home & Away Over/Under 7 Handicap 8 Half Time Goals O/U 9 Half Time Home & Away O/U 10 Second Half Goals O/U 11 Second Half Home & Away O/U

12 Top picks for this game 14 Squad value 15 Games History 16 Overall Statistics 17 League Table

Match preview & prediction

The model favours a home win, with a 53 % chance for FC Aarau, a 25 % chance of a draw, and a 22 % chance that Neuchatel Xamax FC will triumph. The expected total of goals is 3.0, but the most likely total is 2 goals, a 23 % probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.6 % chance. FC Aarau, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.56 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Neuchatel Xamax FC, on the road, averages 1.07 scored and 1.8 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.8 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.5 % with a 7 % edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.2 % with a 7 % edge), Under 6.5 (96.6 % with a 7 % edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.9 % with a 6 % edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (95.0 % with a 6 % edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (92.6 % with a 6 % edge), and Under 5.5 (91.6 % with a 7 % edge). Both teams have recently lost their opening matches, 1-2 each, but the model still sees a home advantage as decisive.

Results analysis

FC Aarau’s victory over Neuchatel Xamax FC continued a winning streak, with the 2-1 scoreline confirming the model’s prediction of a home win, which it had assigned a 54% probability to. The model’s favourite was correct. Every suggested pick performed as expected: Under 7.5 goals hit at 98.8%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.7%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.6%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 97.3%, Under 6.5 hit at 96.6%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 95.0%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 92.9%, and Away under 1.5 HT goals hit at 91.7%. The match’s outcome matched the model’s expectations across all selections.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FC Aarau win✓ Hit

54.1%

Avg Implied 46.9% · @ 1.96

Edge

+7.2%

Best 5 market prices

Superbet

2.02

Dafabet

2.01

Betano

2.00

SBO

2.00

Pinnacle

1.98

Draw✗ Miss

24.5%

Avg Implied 25.2% · @ 3.64

Edge

-0.6%

Best 5 market prices

Bet365

3.90

BetVictor

3.80

Dafabet

3.75

Betfair

3.75

Pinnacle

3.75

Neuchatel Xamax FC win✗ Miss

21.4%

Avg Implied 28.0% · @ 3.28

Edge

-6.6%

Best 5 market prices

Pinnacle

3.56

1xBet

3.40

Marathonbet

3.34

Superbet

3.30

Dafabet

3.30

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FC Aarau

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

3.0

Avg scored

1.7

Avg conceded

1.3

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.87	1.50	1.93	1.07	1.81	1.88
vs Stronger (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
vs Similar (18)	1.67	1.50	1.62	1.12	1.70	1.80
vs Weaker (12)	2.17	1.50	2.33	1.00	2.00	2.00
Clean sheet %	23% (-0pp vs league)

This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neuchatel Xamax FC

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

3.4

Avg scored

1.9

Avg conceded

1.5

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.47	1.60	1.87	1.40	1.07	1.80
vs Stronger (6)	1.17	2.00	1.25	2.25	1.00	1.50
vs Similar (24)	1.54	1.50	2.09	1.09	1.08	1.85
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	20% (-4pp vs league)

This opponent (FC Aarau) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

81.2%

@ 1.15+0.5%

Under 1.5

18.8%

@ 4.79-0.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

1.18

Betano

1.17

Superbet

1.17

Bet365

1.14

Marathonbet

1.14

Under

BetVictor

5.25

Betfair

5.20

Bet365

5.00

Pinnacle

4.90

1xBet

4.65

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

57.8%

@ 1.53-2.9%

Under 2.5

42.2%

@ 2.36+2.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

1.60

Superbet

1.57

Bet365

1.53

Betano

1.53

Marathonbet

1.52

Under

10Bet

2.55

Betano

2.42

Betfair

2.40

Bet365

2.38

Pinnacle

2.35

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under

Over 3.5

35.4%

@ 2.31-4.9%

Under 3.5

64.6%

@ 1.56+4.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

2.47

Betfair

2.40

Superbet

2.40

Marathonbet

2.36

1xBet

2.27

Under

10Bet

1.65

Betano

1.60

Bet365

1.57

BetVictor

1.57

1xBet

1.56

Both teams to scoreActual: Yes

Yes

58.2%

@ 1.47-4.7%

41.8%

@ 2.48+4.7%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

Superbet

1.51

Betfair

1.50

Marathonbet

1.50

1xBet

1.47

Betano

1.47

Bet365

2.62

BetVictor

2.55

10Bet

2.55

Betano

2.52

William Hil

2.50

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

1-1

11.5%@ 7.24+5.4%

2-1 ✓

9.9%@ 7.96+4.3%

2-0

8.8%@ 11.17+4.8%

1-0

8.3%@ 10.05+3.9%

3-1

6.2%@ 12.59+2.7%

0-0

6.0%@ 15.11+3.1%

1-2

5.9%@ 10.79+1.8%

2-2

5.5%@ 10.57+1.3%

FC Aarau goals ↓

	Neuchatel Xamax FC goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.0%	4.5%	3.1%	1.2%	0.3%
1	8.3%	12%	5.9%	2.2%	0.6%
2	8.8%	9.9%	5.5%	2.1%	0.6%
3	5.5%	6.2%	3.5%	1.3%	0.4%
4	2.6%	2.9%	1.6%	0.6%	0.2%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Aarau goals (down), columns = Neuchatel Xamax FC goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

2.33

Yverdon Sport

2.00

SC Kriens

1.67

FC Winterthur

1.50

Neuchatel Xamax FC

1.50

Étoile Carouge

1.33

FC Aarau

1.33

FC WIL 1900

0.83

Rapperswil

0.67

Stade Nyonnais

0.33

FC Aarau is 0.17 points worse than Neuchatel Xamax FC in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

FC Winterthur

2.00

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

1.83

SC Kriens

1.67

Yverdon Sport

1.67

FC WIL 1900

1.50

Neuchatel Xamax FC

1.50

Rapperswil

1.33

FC Aarau

1.33

Étoile Carouge

1.00

Stade Nyonnais

0.67

FC Aarau is 0.17 goals worse than Neuchatel Xamax FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

0.50

SC Kriens

1.00

Yverdon Sport

1.00

Étoile Carouge

1.00

FC Winterthur

1.17

Neuchatel Xamax FC

1.50

FC Aarau

1.67

Stade Nyonnais

1.83

Rapperswil

2.17

FC WIL 1900

2.67

FC Aarau is 0.17 goals worse than Neuchatel Xamax FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.50).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

FC Aarau or Draw✓ Hit

78.6%

Avg Implied 72.3% · @ 1.28

Edge

+6.3%

54%

25%

21%

covers FC Aarau + Draw

Best 5 market prices

Betano

1.34

Bet365

1.33

BetVictor

1.30

Betfair

1.30

William Hil

1.30

FC Aarau or Neuchatel Xamax FC✓ Hit

75.5%

Avg Implied 75.6% · @ 1.23

Edge

-0.1%

54%

25%

21%

covers FC Aarau + Neuchatel Xamax FC

Best 5 market prices

Betano

1.26

Superbet

1.25

William Hil

1.25

Bet365

1.25

Betfair

1.22

Draw or Neuchatel Xamax FC✗ Miss

45.9%

Avg Implied 52.2% · @ 1.77

Edge

-6.2%

54%

25%

21%

covers Draw + Neuchatel Xamax FC

Best 5 market prices

Betfair

1.83

Bet365

1.80

William Hil

1.80

10Bet

1.80

Betano

1.80

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.

FC Aarau over/under 0.5Actual: Over

Over

84.8%

@ 1.13+3.0%

Under

15.2%

@ 5.08-3.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.15

Superbet

1.15

Betfair

1.14

Bet365

1.12

10Bet

1.11

Under

Bet365

5.50

1xBet

5.25

10Bet

5.00

Betfair

5.00

Betano

4.90

FC Aarau over/under 1.5Actual: Over

Over

56.1%

@ 1.69+1.2%

Under

43.9%

@ 2.07-1.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

1.77

Superbet

1.76

Betano

1.72

Marathonbet

1.72

Betfair

1.67

Under

Bet365

2.20

10Bet

2.10

Betfair

2.10

1xBet

2.07

Pinnacle

2.06

FC Aarau over/under 2.5Actual: Under

Over

29.2%

@ 3.16-0.2%

Under

70.8%

@ 1.31+0.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

3.36

Superbet

3.35

Betfair

3.20

Betano

3.15

Marathonbet

3.14

Under

Bet365

1.36

1xBet

1.35

Betano

1.33

Pinnacle

1.30

Betfair

1.30

FC Aarau over/under 3.5Actual: Under

Over

12.2%

@ 6.12-3.0%

Under

87.8%

@ 1.10+3.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betfair

6.50

Betano

6.10

Bet365

6.00

1xBet

5.90

Under

Bet365

1.11

Betano

1.10

1xBet

1.10

Betfair

1.08

Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5Actual: Over

Over

67.4%

@ 1.27-5.4%

Under

32.6%

@ 3.41+5.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Superbet

1.29

Betfair

1.29

Pinnacle

1.29

Marathonbet

1.28

1xBet

1.28

Under

Bet365

3.75

10Bet

3.50

Betano

3.50

Pinnacle

3.47

1xBet

3.34

Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5Actual: Under

Over

30.9%

@ 2.32-9.0%

Under

69.1%

@ 1.54+9.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

2.53

Betfair

2.38

Marathonbet

2.38

Superbet

2.37

1xBet

2.31

Under

Bet365

1.62

Betano

1.60

10Bet

1.57

Betfair

1.53

Pinnacle

1.52

Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5Actual: Under

Over

10.4%

@ 5.09-7.8%

Under

89.6%

@ 1.13+7.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betfair

5.50

Marathonbet

5.35

Superbet

5.25

1xBet

5.20

Betano

4.75

Under

Bet365

1.17

Betano

1.16

Betfair

1.13

1xBet

1.12

Superbet

1.12

Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 3.5Actual: Under

Over

2.7%

@ 9.42-7.2%

Under

97.3%

@ 1.04+7.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betfair

10.00

Betano

9.25

Bet365

9.00

Under

Bet365

1.04

Betano

1.04

Betfair

1.03

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to FC Aarau, so a minus line means FC Aarau give that many goals of a start and Neuchatel Xamax FC receive them. At -1, FC Aarau must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Aarau win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.

Handicap -2 (FC Aarau)Actual: Neuchatel Xamax FC

FC Aarau -2

15.0%

@ 6.37+1.0%

Draw -2

16.9%

@ 5.48+0.7%

Neuchatel Xamax FC +2

68.2%

@ 1.27-1.7%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Bet365

6.50

Betfair

6.50

Marathonbet

6.10

Draw

Betfair

5.50

Bet365

5.50

Marathonbet

5.45

Away

Bet365

1.30

Marathonbet

1.26

Betfair

1.25

Handicap -1 (FC Aarau)Actual: Draw

FC Aarau -1

31.8%

@ 3.29+4.6%

Draw -1

22.3%

@ 3.97-0.3%

Neuchatel Xamax FC +1

45.9%

@ 1.78-4.3%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Bet365

3.40

10Bet

3.30

Betfair

3.25

Marathonbet

3.20

Draw

Bet365

4.33

Betfair

4.00

10Bet

3.80

Marathonbet

3.74

Away

10Bet

1.80

Betfair

1.80

Bet365

1.80

Marathonbet

1.73

Handicap +1 (FC Aarau)Actual: FC Aarau

FC Aarau +1

78.6%

@ 1.27+8.9%

Draw +1

12.9%

@ 5.30-3.9%

Neuchatel Xamax FC -1

8.5%

@ 6.53-5.0%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Bet365

1.30

Marathonbet

1.24

Draw

Bet365

5.50

Marathonbet

5.10

Away

Marathonbet

6.55

Bet365

6.50

Handicap +2 (FC Aarau)Actual: FC Aarau

FC Aarau +2

91.5%

@ 1.11+7.1%

Draw +2

6.0%

@ 10.00-3.4%

Neuchatel Xamax FC -2

2.5%

@ 15.00-3.7%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Bet365

1.11

Draw

Bet365

10.00

Away

Bet365

15.00

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FC Aarau

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.8

Avg scored

1.2

Avg conceded

0.6

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.93	0.83	1.00	0.43	0.88	1.19
vs Stronger (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
vs Similar (18)	0.83	0.78	0.75	0.38	0.90	1.10
vs Weaker (12)	1.08	0.92	1.33	0.50	0.83	1.33
Clean sheet %	50% (+26pp vs league)

This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neuchatel Xamax FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.8

Avg scored

0.8

Avg conceded

1.0

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.67	0.93	1.00	0.80	0.33	1.07
vs Stronger (6)	0.17	0.83	0.25	1.00	0.00	0.50
vs Similar (24)	0.79	0.96	1.27	0.73	0.38	1.15
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	37% (+13pp vs league)

This opponent (FC Aarau) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under

Over 0.5

73.3%

@ 1.25-0.6%

Under 0.5

26.7%

@ 3.54+0.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.29

Superbet

1.27

Marathonbet

1.27

1xBet

1.25

BetVictor

1.25

Under

Betfair

3.80

William Hil

3.80

Bet365

3.75

10Bet

3.70

BetVictor

3.60

Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under

Over 1.5

37.1%

@ 2.20-5.1%

Under 1.5

62.9%

@ 1.61+5.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

2.37

Betano

2.27

Marathonbet

2.26

Betfair

2.25

Superbet

2.25

Under

10Bet

1.70

Bet365

1.67

William Hil

1.65

BetVictor

1.61

Betano

1.60

Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

14.4%

@ 4.89-4.5%

Under 2.5

85.6%

@ 1.14+4.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betfair

5.50

BetVictor

5.25

Superbet

5.00

Marathonbet

4.90

1xBet

4.75

Under

Bet365

1.17

William Hil

1.17

Betano

1.16

BetVictor

1.13

Superbet

1.13

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.

FC Aarau over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under

Over

56.4%

@ 1.68+1.2%

Under

43.6%

@ 2.07-1.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Superbet

1.71

Betano

1.70

Pinnacle

1.69

Marathonbet

1.68

1xBet

1.62

Under

Pinnacle

2.15

1xBet

2.15

Betano

2.02

Superbet

2.02

Marathonbet

2.01

FC Aarau over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under

Over

17.9%

@ 4.20-4.0%

Under

82.1%

@ 1.18+4.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

4.40

Betano

4.20

1xBet

4.00

Under

Betano

1.19

1xBet

1.19

Marathonbet

1.15

FC Aarau over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under

Over

5.0%

@ 9.00-5.3%

Under

95.0%

@ 1.03+5.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

9.00

Under

Betano

1.03

Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under

Over

38.4%

@ 2.07-6.5%

Under

61.6%

@ 1.68+6.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

2.18

Marathonbet

2.07

Superbet

2.07

Betano

2.02

1xBet

2.00

Under

1xBet

1.72

Betano

1.70

Superbet

1.68

Pinnacle

1.67

Marathonbet

1.64

Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under

Over

8.3%

@ 6.18-6.6%

Under

91.7%

@ 1.08+6.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

6.65

1xBet

6.20

Betano

5.70

Under

Betano

1.11

1xBet

1.08

Marathonbet

1.06

Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under

Over

1.3%

@ 10.75-7.4%

Under

98.7%

@ 1.02+7.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

10.75

Under

Betano

1.02

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FC Aarau

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.2

Avg scored

0.5

Avg conceded

0.7

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.93	0.67	0.93	0.64	0.94	0.69
vs Stronger (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
vs Similar (18)	0.83	0.72	0.88	0.75	0.80	0.70
vs Weaker (12)	1.08	0.58	1.00	0.50	1.17	0.67
Clean sheet %	50% (+26pp vs league)

This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neuchatel Xamax FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.6

Avg scored

1.1

Avg conceded

0.5

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.80	0.67	0.87	0.60	0.73	0.73
vs Stronger (6)	1.00	1.17	1.00	1.25	1.00	1.00
vs Similar (24)	0.75	0.54	0.82	0.36	0.69	0.69
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	47% (+23pp vs league)

This opponent (FC Aarau) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over

Over 0.5

79.5%

@ 1.14-1.5%

Under 0.5

20.5%

@ 4.85+1.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Superbet

1.16

Betano

1.15

Bet365

1.14

Marathonbet

1.13

1xBet

1.12

Under

Bet365

5.50

1xBet

4.80

Betano

4.75

Marathonbet

4.60

Superbet

4.60

Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

49.5%

@ 1.72-4.4%

Under 1.5

50.5%

@ 2.01+4.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Superbet

1.80

Marathonbet

1.76

1xBet

1.72

Betano

1.70

Bet365

1.67

Under

Bet365

2.10

10Bet

2.10

Betano

2.05

1xBet

1.99

Marathonbet

1.94

Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

21.0%

@ 3.20-7.8%

Under 2.5

79.0%

@ 1.30+7.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Superbet

3.45

Bet365

3.25

Marathonbet

3.20

1xBet

3.08

Betano

3.00

Under

Betano

1.34

Bet365

1.33

1xBet

1.28

Superbet

1.27

Marathonbet

1.26

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.

FC Aarau over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over

Over

59.2%

@ 1.46-4.4%

Under

40.8%

@ 2.54+4.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Superbet

1.49

Betano

1.45

1xBet

1.43

Under

1xBet

2.60

Betano

2.57

Superbet

2.45

FC Aarau over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over

Over

24.0%

@ 3.05-6.2%

Under

76.0%

@ 1.32+6.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

3.14

1xBet

3.00

Betano

3.00

Under

Betano

1.34

1xBet

1.33

Marathonbet

1.29

FC Aarau over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under

Over

7.1%

@ 7.20-5.7%

Under

92.9%

@ 1.06+5.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

7.80

Betano

6.60

Under

Betano

1.08

1xBet

1.04

Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over

Over

46.9%

@ 1.73-6.5%

Under

53.1%

@ 1.98+6.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Superbet

1.76

Marathonbet

1.76

1xBet

1.72

Betano

1.67

Under

Betano

2.07

1xBet

2.00

Superbet

1.95

Marathonbet

1.91

Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under

Over

13.1%

@ 4.48-7.5%

Under

86.9%

@ 1.16+7.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

4.80

1xBet

4.60

Betano

4.05

Under

Betano

1.20

1xBet

1.15

Marathonbet

1.13

Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under

Over

2.4%

@ 9.00-7.9%

Under

97.6%

@ 1.03+7.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

9.00

Under

Betano

1.03

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Min odds1.20

Edge

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Under 7.5	98.8%	1.01	1xBet 1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	+5.1%	✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals	98.7%	1.02	Betano 1.02	-	-	-	-	+7.4%	✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals	97.6%	1.03	Betano 1.03	-	-	-	-	+7.9%	✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals	97.3%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	Betano 1.04	Betfair 1.03	-	-	+7.2%	✓ Hit
Under 6.5	96.6%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	1xBet 1.03	Betano 1.03	-	-	+6.3%	✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals	95.0%	1.03	Betano 1.03	-	-	-	-	+5.3%	✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals	92.9%	1.06	Betano 1.08	1xBet 1.04	-	-	-	+5.7%	✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals	91.7%	1.08	Betano 1.11	1xBet 1.08	Marathonbet 1.06	-	-	+6.6%	✓ Hit
Under 5.5	91.6%	1.07	Pinnacle 1.10	Betano 1.10	Bet365 1.08	Superbet 1.07	BetVictor 1.05	+4.7%	✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap	91.5%	1.11	Bet365 1.11	-	-	-	-	+7.1%	✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals	89.6%	1.13	Bet365 1.17	Betano 1.16	Betfair 1.13	1xBet 1.12	Superbet 1.12	+7.8%	✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals	87.8%	1.10	Bet365 1.11	Betano 1.10	1xBet 1.10	Betfair 1.08	-	+3.0%	✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals	86.9%	1.16	Betano 1.20	1xBet 1.15	Marathonbet 1.13	-	-	+7.5%	✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals	85.6%	1.14	Bet365 1.17	William Hil 1.17	Betano 1.16	BetVictor 1.13	Superbet 1.13	+4.5%	✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals	84.8%	1.13	Betano 1.15	Superbet 1.15	Betfair 1.14	Bet365 1.12	10Bet 1.11	+3.0%	✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals	82.1%	1.18	Betano 1.19	1xBet 1.19	Marathonbet 1.15	-	-	+4.0%	✓ Hit
Under 4.5	81.4%	1.21	Betano 1.25	10Bet 1.25	Bet365 1.22	Pinnacle 1.22	1xBet 1.20	+4.7%	✓ Hit
Over 1.5	81.2%	1.15	Pinnacle 1.18	Betano 1.17	Superbet 1.17	Bet365 1.14	Marathonbet 1.14	+0.5%	✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals	79.5%	1.14	Superbet 1.16	Betano 1.15	Bet365 1.14	Marathonbet 1.13	1xBet 1.12	-1.5%	✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals	79.0%	1.30	Betano 1.34	Bet365 1.33	1xBet 1.28	Superbet 1.27	Marathonbet 1.26	+7.8%	✗ Miss
Home or Draw	78.6%	1.28	Betano 1.34	Bet365 1.33	BetVictor 1.30	Betfair 1.30	William Hil 1.30	+6.3%	✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap	78.6%	1.27	Bet365 1.30	Marathonbet 1.24	-	-	-	+8.9%	✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals	76.0%	1.32	Betano 1.34	1xBet 1.33	Marathonbet 1.29	-	-	+6.2%	✗ Miss
Home or Away	75.5%	1.23	Betano 1.26	Superbet 1.25	William Hil 1.25	Bet365 1.25	Betfair 1.22	-0.1%	✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals	73.3%	1.25	Betano 1.29	Superbet 1.27	Marathonbet 1.27	1xBet 1.25	BetVictor 1.25	-0.6%	✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals	70.8%	1.31	Bet365 1.36	1xBet 1.35	Betano 1.33	Pinnacle 1.30	Betfair 1.30	+0.2%	✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

FW (25)

€6m

SL (24)

€6m

FA (23)

€6m

YS (22)

€5m

NXF (26)

€5m

FW1 (26)

€5m

RAP (24)

€4m

ÉC (23)

€4m

SN (21)

€3m

SK (16)

€3m

FC Aarau and Neuchatel Xamax FC have a similar squad value (both €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

SL (9)

€3m

YS (10)

€3m

FW (9)

€2m

NXF (10)

€2m

FA (6)

€2m

SN (9)

€1m

FW1 (9)

€1m

ÉC (6)

€1m

RAP (8)

€1m

SK (5)

€0m

FC Aarau and Neuchatel Xamax FC have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

FW (7)

€2m

FW1 (7)

€2m

RAP (6)

€2m

SL (5)

€1m

NXF (5)

€1m

ÉC (5)

€1m

FA (4)

€1m

SK (3)

€1m

YS (3)

€1m

SN (3)

€0m

FC Aarau and Neuchatel Xamax FC have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

FA (13)

€3m

SL (10)

€2m

FW (9)

€2m

YS (9)

€2m

NXF (11)

€2m

ÉC (12)

€2m

SK (8)

€2m

RAP (10)

€2m

FW1 (10)

€2m

SN (9)

€1m

FC Aarau and Neuchatel Xamax FC have a similar defence value (both €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings

FA wins

Draws

NXF wins

Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FC Aarau vs Neuchatel Xamax FC · H/A from FA

Date	H/A	Game	Score
01/05/26	A	Neuchatel Xamax FC Vs FA	1-3
21/03/26	H	FA Vs Neuchatel Xamax FC	1-0
28/11/25	A	Neuchatel Xamax FC Vs FA	1-2
09/08/25	H	FA Vs Neuchatel Xamax FC	2-0
11/04/25	A	Neuchatel Xamax FC Vs FA	1-1
07/03/25	H	FA Vs Neuchatel Xamax FC	2-0
13/12/24	A	Neuchatel Xamax FC Vs FA	1-3
03/08/24	H	FA Vs Neuchatel Xamax FC	1-3

FC Aarau

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
23/08/26	A	Yverdon Sport Vs FA	2-1
07/08/26	H	FA Vs Stade Nyonnais	2-1
01/08/26	H	FA Vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy	1-1
24/07/26	A	Étoile Carouge Vs FA	3-0
21/05/26	A	Grasshoppers Vs FA	1-1
18/05/26	H	FA Vs Grasshoppers	0-0
15/05/26	H	FA Vs Yverdon Sport	2-2
11/05/26	A	FC Vaduz Vs FA	1-2
08/05/26	H	FA Vs Stade Nyonnais	5-1
01/05/26	A	Neuchatel Xamax FC Vs FA	1-3

Neuchatel Xamax FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
21/08/26	H	NXF Vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy	1-2
07/08/26	A	Étoile Carouge Vs NXF	0-1
31/07/26	A	FC WIL 1900 Vs NXF	1-2
24/07/26	H	NXF Vs SC Kriens	3-2
15/05/26	A	Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Vs NXF	2-1
11/05/26	H	NXF Vs Étoile Carouge	3-0
08/05/26	A	Rapperswil Vs NXF	2-3
01/05/26	H	NXF Vs FC Aarau	1-3
26/04/26	H	NXF Vs Bellinzona	2-1
22/04/26	A	Yverdon Sport Vs NXF	2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FC Aarau

Switzerland: Challenge League

Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	DLDWL	1.90
Home	WDDDW	2.04
Away	WWDLL	1.76

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	56%	60%	52%
AVG goals	3.26	2.80	3.72
Over 1.5 %	82%	72%	92%
Over 2.5 %	66%	52%	80%
Over 3.5 %	36%	28%	44%
Scored	1.86	1.80	1.92
Conceded	1.40	1.00	1.80
BTTS	66%	52%	80%
Clean Sheet	28%	44%	12%
Corners	14.50	11.00	18.00
Cards	6.67	7.00	6.50

Neuchatel Xamax FC

Switzerland: Challenge League

Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	LWWWL	1.32
Home	WLWWL	1.52
Away	DWLWW	1.12

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	38%	44%	32%
AVG goals	3.14	3.28	3.00
Over 1.5 %	84%	92%	76%
Over 2.5 %	68%	72%	64%
Over 3.5 %	38%	36%	40%
Scored	1.56	1.80	1.32
Conceded	1.58	1.48	1.68
BTTS	68%	76%	60%
Clean Sheet	16%	16%	16%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

🏆 17. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Stade Lausanne-Ouchy	6	14	67%	2.3	11	3	+8	2.3	100%	33%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	6	3	1	2	1.8	0.5	-
2	Yverdon Sport	6	12	50%	2.0	10	6	+4	2.7	100%	50%	17%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	5	3	1	2	1.7	1.0	-
3	SC Kriens	6	10	50%	1.7	10	6	+4	2.7	100%	33%	17%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	3	0	1	2	1.7	1.0	-
4	FC Winterthur	6	9	33%	1.5	12	7	+5	3.2	100%	50%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	6	2	2	2	2.0	1.2	-
5	Neuchatel Xamax FC	6	9	50%	1.5	9	9	+0	3.0	83%	83%	17%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	5	2	1	2	1.5	1.5	-
6	Étoile Carouge	6	8	33%	1.3	6	6	+0	2.0	67%	50%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	4	1	1	2	1.0	1.0	-
7	FC Aarau	6	8	33%	1.3	8	10	-2	3.0	100%	83%	17%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	6	2	1	3	1.3	1.7	-
8	FC WIL 1900	6	5	17%	0.8	9	16	-7	4.2	100%	67%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	5	1	2	2	1.5	2.7	-
9	Rapperswil	6	4	17%	0.7	8	13	-5	3.5	100%	50%	17%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	4	1	2	2	1.3	2.2	-
10	Stade Nyonnais	6	2	0%	0.3	4	11	-7	2.5	83%	67%	17%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	3	1	0	1	0.7	1.8	-

Switzerland: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →

← all matches

FC Aarau vs Neuchatel Xamax FC Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FC Aarau

Neuchatel Xamax FC

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FC Aarau

Neuchatel Xamax FC

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FC Aarau

Neuchatel Xamax FC

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

Head-to-head

FC Aarau

Neuchatel Xamax FC

📊 16. Overall Statistics

🏆 17. League Table

A Pro feature