FC Aarau’s recent form shows a team that has struggled to find the net, averaging 1.62 goals scored and conceding 1.12 at home against opponents of similar strength. Their last outing ended in a 1-2 loss, a reminder that they are still coming off a defeat. In contrast, SC Kriens, playing away, have been more prolific, scoring an average of 2.0 goals and conceding 1.5 against similar opposition, and they arrive on a winning streak after a 2-0 victory. The model projects a high-scoring affair with an expected 3.2 goals, centring on a 3-goal total that carries a 22 % probability. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.8 % chance. The favored outcome is a home win, with a 55 % chance, a draw at 24 % and an away win at 21 %. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.4 %), Away under 3.5 goals (96.7 %), Under 6.5 (95.7 %), Home +2 handicap (91.2 %), Under 5.5 (89.7 %), Away under 2.5 goals (88.2 %), Home over 0.5 goals (86.3 %) and Home under 3.5 goals (85.9 %).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Aarau win
57.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
SC Kriens win
18.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Aarau
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.40
2.07
1.07
1.88
1.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.68
1.53
1.62
1.12
1.73
1.82
vs Weaker (11)
2.45
1.18
2.67
1.00
2.20
1.40
Clean sheet %
23% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Kriens) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Kriens
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.00
1.67
0.67
1.67
1.33
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (5)
2.00
0.80
2.50
0.00
1.67
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.5%
Under 1.5
17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.9%
Under 2.5
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.6%
Under 3.5
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.4%
No
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.1%
1-0
8.1%
3-1
6.7%
3-0
6.1%
0-0
5.5%
2-2
5.4%
FC Aarau goals ↓
SC Kriens goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
3.9%
2.7%
1.0%
0.3%
1
8.1%
11%
5.4%
1.9%
0.5%
2
9.1%
9.9%
5.4%
2.0%
0.5%
3
6.1%
6.7%
3.6%
1.3%
0.4%
4
3.1%
3.4%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Aarau goals (down), columns = SC Kriens goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
2.33
Yverdon Sport
2.00
SC Kriens
1.67
FC Winterthur
1.50
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
Étoile Carouge
1.33
FC Aarau
1.33
FC WIL 1900
0.83
Rapperswil
0.67
Stade Nyonnais
0.33
FC Aarau is 0.33 points worse than SC Kriens in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Winterthur
2.00
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.83
SC Kriens
1.67
Yverdon Sport
1.67
FC WIL 1900
1.50
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
Rapperswil
1.33
FC Aarau
1.33
Étoile Carouge
1.00
Stade Nyonnais
0.67
FC Aarau is 0.33 goals worse than SC Kriens in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
0.50
SC Kriens
1.00
Yverdon Sport
1.00
Étoile Carouge
1.00
FC Winterthur
1.17
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
FC Aarau
1.67
Stade Nyonnais
1.83
Rapperswil
2.17
FC WIL 1900
2.67
FC Aarau is 0.67 goals worse than SC Kriens in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Aarau or Draw
81.1%
Avg Implied -
58%
23%
19%
covers FC Aarau + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau or SC Kriens
76.8%
Avg Implied -
58%
23%
19%
covers FC Aarau + SC Kriens
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or SC Kriens
42.2%
Avg Implied -
58%
23%
19%
covers Draw + SC Kriens
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5
Over
86.7%
Under
13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5
Over
59.8%
Under
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5
Over
32.7%
Under
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 3.5
Over
14.6%
Under
85.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Kriens over/under 0.5
Over
66.3%
Under
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Kriens over/under 1.5
Over
29.6%
Under
70.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Kriens over/under 2.5
Over
9.7%
Under
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Kriens over/under 3.5
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Aarau, so a minus line means FC Aarau give that many goals of a start and SC Kriens receive them. At -1, FC Aarau must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Aarau win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Aarau)
FC Aarau -2
17.6%
Draw -2
17.9%
SC Kriens +2
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FC Aarau)
FC Aarau -1
35.5%
Draw -1
22.4%
SC Kriens +1
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FC Aarau)
FC Aarau +1
81.1%
Draw +1
11.6%
SC Kriens -1
7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FC Aarau)
FC Aarau +2
92.7%
Draw +2
5.2%
SC Kriens -2
2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Aarau
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.70
1.00
0.43
1.00
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.89
0.74
0.75
0.38
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (11)
1.18
0.64
1.33
0.50
1.00
0.80
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Kriens) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Kriens
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.33
0.67
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.60
1.00
0.00
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.9%
Under 0.5
28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.5%
Under 1.5
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.3%
Under 2.5
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5 HT
Over
46.1%
Under
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.5%
Under
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Kriens over/under 0.5 HT
Over
44.7%
Under
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Kriens over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.3%
Under
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Kriens over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Aarau
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.70
1.07
0.64
0.88
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.79
0.88
0.75
0.73
0.82
vs Weaker (11)
1.27
0.55
1.33
0.50
1.20
0.60
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Kriens) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Kriens
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.33
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.20
0.20
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.5%
Under 0.5
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
45.0%
Under 1.5
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.7%
Under 2.5
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5 2H
Over
55.5%
Under
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.8%
Under
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Kriens over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.4%
Under
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Kriens over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.6%
Under
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Kriens over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FW (25)
€6m
SL (24)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
YS (22)
€5m
NXF (26)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
RAP (24)
€4m
ÉC (23)
€4m
SN (21)
€3m
SK (16)
€3m
FC Aarau's squad is €3m more valuable than SC Kriens's (€6m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SL (9)
€3m
YS (10)
€3m
FW (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FW1 (9)
€1m
ÉC (6)
€1m
RAP (8)
€1m
SK (5)
€0m
FC Aarau's attack is €2m more valuable than SC Kriens's (€2m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FW (7)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
RAP (6)
€2m
SL (5)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
ÉC (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
SK (3)
€1m
YS (3)
€1m
SN (3)
€0m
FC Aarau and SC Kriens have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€3m
SL (10)
€2m
FW (9)
€2m
YS (9)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
ÉC (12)
€2m
SK (8)
€2m
RAP (10)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FC Aarau's defence is €1m more valuable than SC Kriens's (€3m vs €2m).
Switzerland: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Yverdon Sport
FC Winterthur
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Étoile Carouge
FC WIL 1900
Rapperswil
Stade Nyonnais