This match between FC Aarau and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy is expected to be a closely contested affair, with FC Aarau's recent win over Stade Nyonnais still fresh in their minds. However, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's unbeaten streak in their last five matches suggests they will be a formidable opponent. The model predicts a home win for FC Aarau, with a 48% chance of success. The draw percentage stands at 26%, while Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's away win chances are also 26%.
The expected total number of goals is 2.9, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring 12.4% of the time. FC Aarau's home form has seen them score an average of 2 goals per match and concede 1, while Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's away form has seen them score 0 goals and concede 3 against stronger opponents. The model's selection for Over 1.5 goals has a 79.4% probability of being correct.
In terms of the match result, the model's selection is a home win, which has a 48% probability. The home win percentage is 48%, the draw percentage is 26%, and the away win percentage is 26%. The model's selection for Over 1.5 goals has a 79.4% probability of being correct.
Results analysis
The draw between FC Aarau and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy extends FC Aarau's recent winning streak, following their 2-1 victory over Stade Nyonnais. However, the surprise of the match came as Stade Lausanne-Ouchy held FC Aarau to a 1-1 draw, handing the home team their first draw in five matches. The model's selection, a home win, was incorrect, with the pre-match probability standing at 48%. The model's call was wrong, as the actual result was a draw. The model's suggested picks also included an Over 1.5 goal margin, which hit at a probability of 79.4%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Aarau win✗ Miss
48.0%
Avg Implied 41.8% · @ 2.18
Edge
+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
2.30
Pinnacle
2.28
BetVictor
2.25
William Hil
2.25
Dafabet
2.23
Draw✓ Hit
26.3%
Avg Implied 24.9% · @ 3.67
Edge
+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.03
Dafabet
3.80
Betfair
3.80
BetVictor
3.75
Betano
3.75
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win✗ Miss
25.7%
Avg Implied 33.3% · @ 2.74
Edge
-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.86
Betfair
2.80
10Bet
2.80
Dafabet
2.80
Superbet
2.77
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Aarau
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.47
2.00
1.00
1.88
1.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
2.00
1.33
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.50
vs Weaker (24)
1.92
1.50
2.00
1.00
1.83
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.33
2.00
1.38
1.29
1.29
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
2.33
2.50
2.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (20)
1.35
1.30
1.60
1.40
1.10
1.20
vs Weaker (7)
2.57
1.00
2.75
1.00
2.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.4%
@ 1.12-3.5%
Under 1.5
20.6%
@ 5.41+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.14
Pinnacle
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Under
Betfair
6.50
Pinnacle
5.68
BetVictor
5.50
Superbet
5.30
Marathonbet
5.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.0%
@ 1.44-9.5%
Under 2.5
45.0%
@ 2.60+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.48
Unibet
1.46
BetVictor
1.45
Superbet
1.43
Under
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.75
Pinnacle
2.65
Betano
2.65
Superbet
2.62
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.6%
@ 2.11-11.6%
Under 3.5
67.4%
@ 1.67+11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.21
Bet365
2.20
Unibet
2.18
Marathonbet
2.12
1xBet
2.12
Under
SBO
1.77
Betfair
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Pinnacle
1.68
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.9%
@ 1.39-8.2%
No
42.1%
@ 2.72+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
William Hil
1.40
No
Betfair
2.88
Betano
2.80
BetVictor
2.75
10Bet
2.75
Superbet
2.72
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.4%@ 7.55+6.5%
2-1
9.5%@ 8.51+4.3%
1-0
8.4%@ 12.06+4.7%
2-0
8.0%@ 13.31+4.7%
0-0
6.7%@ 17.15+4.1%
1-2
6.7%@ 9.92+2.2%
2-2
5.7%@ 10.07+1.2%
0-1
5.5%@ 13.87+2.3%
FC Aarau goals ↓
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
5.5%
4.0%
1.6%
0.5%
1
8.4%
12%
6.7%
2.7%
0.8%
2
8.0%
9.5%
5.7%
2.3%
0.7%
3
4.5%
5.4%
3.2%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.9%
2.3%
1.4%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Aarau goals (down), columns = Stade Lausanne-Ouchy goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Aarau
2.22
Yverdon Sport
1.86
FC Winterthur
1.51
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.39
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.36
SC Kriens
1.24
Rapperswil
1.22
FC WIL 1900
1.11
Étoile Carouge
1.11
Stade Nyonnais
0.78
FC Aarau is 0.83 points better than Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in terms of average points per game (2.22 vs 1.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Aarau
2.14
Yverdon Sport
2.08
FC Winterthur
1.66
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.64
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.53
Rapperswil
1.44
SC Kriens
1.36
Étoile Carouge
1.28
FC WIL 1900
1.08
Stade Nyonnais
0.92
FC Aarau is 0.50 goals better than Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in terms of goals scored per game (2.14 vs 1.64).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Aarau
1.31
Yverdon Sport
1.33
FC Winterthur
1.41
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.42
Étoile Carouge
1.50
FC WIL 1900
1.53
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.56
Stade Nyonnais
1.67
SC Kriens
1.72
Rapperswil
1.72
FC Aarau is 0.11 goals better than Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in terms of goals conceded per game (1.31 vs 1.42).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Aarau
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.83
1.00
0.50
0.94
1.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.33
0.67
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (24)
0.88
0.88
0.83
0.50
0.92
1.25
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.63
1.06
0.75
0.43
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
1.00
2.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.65
0.90
0.60
0.40
0.70
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
0.43
1.00
0.75
0.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
79.4%
1.12
Bet365
1.14
Pinnacle
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
-3.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Switzerland: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Neuchatel Xamax FC
FC Winterthur
Yverdon Sport
Étoile Carouge
SC Kriens
Rapperswil
FC WIL 1900
Stade Nyonnais