FC Aarau is the clear favourite to win this match, with a 65% probability of a home win. The model's high rating is due to Stade Nyonnais' poor recent form, having lost their last 5 matches, including a 1-2 defeat to FC Aarau in their last encounter.
FC Aarau's home form has been impressive, scoring an average of 1.5 goals and conceding just 0.5 goals when facing weaker opponents. On the other hand, Stade Nyonnais' away form has been dismal, scoring 0.67 goals and conceding 1.44 goals when facing stronger opponents.
The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with the most likely score being 2-0 in favour of FC Aarau, with a probability of 12.3%. The model's selection is Over 1.5, with a 77.5% probability of hitting.
The probabilities for the match result are: 65% for a home win, 22% for a draw, and 13% for an away win. The model's selection for the match result is a Home win. The suggested picks include Over 1.5 (77.5%), with no edge mentioned. The home win percentage is 65%, the draw percentage is 22%, and the away win percentage is 13%.
Results analysis
The win extends FC Aarau's run, having come off a victory and boasting a strong recent form. The final score of 2-1 was a home win, matching the actual result. The model's selection, home win, was correct, given its pre-match probability of 65%. The suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 77.5%. The model's call for home win proved accurate, as FC Aarau took the win. Over 1.5 goals was a successful selection, and the model's prediction of 2-0, 1-0, and 1-1 scores were also part of the most likely outcomes, each with a probability of 12.3%, 11.4%, and 10.7% respectively.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Aarau win✓ Hit
64.7%
Avg Implied 66.5% · @ 1.37
Edge
-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.43
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Dafabet
1.39
Draw✗ Miss
22.4%
Avg Implied 19.5% · @ 4.66
Edge
+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.04
Bet365
5.00
Dafabet
4.90
Superbet
4.80
Betfair
4.75
Stade Nyonnais win✗ Miss
12.9%
Avg Implied 14.0% · @ 6.53
Edge
-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
7.50
Betfair
7.50
1xBet
7.16
Pinnacle
7.04
Marathonbet
6.90
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Aarau
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.43
1.93
1.00
1.87
1.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.72
1.39
1.67
1.00
1.78
1.78
vs Weaker (12)
2.17
1.50
2.33
1.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Nyonnais) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stade Nyonnais
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
3.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.67
1.00
1.53
0.53
1.80
vs Stronger (10)
1.10
2.20
1.25
2.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
0.60
1.40
0.91
1.18
0.22
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.6%
@ 1.15-3.1%
Under 1.5
22.4%
@ 4.79+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Pinnacle
1.18
888Sport
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Under
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.00
Unibet
4.90
Pinnacle
4.87
1xBet
4.85
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.6%
@ 1.52-8.1%
Under 2.5
47.4%
@ 2.36+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.55
BetVictor
1.54
Under
Unibet
2.50
Pinnacle
2.42
Betfair
2.40
Betano
2.35
10Bet
2.35
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.4%
@ 2.32-9.6%
Under 3.5
69.6%
@ 1.55+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.41
888Sport
2.40
10Bet
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Superbet
2.35
Under
Unibet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.54
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.0%
@ 1.73-5.2%
No
52.0%
@ 1.97+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.83
Superbet
1.77
BetVictor
1.75
Betano
1.75
888Sport
1.75
No
Unibet
2.20
Betfair
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Betano
1.98
Marathonbet
1.97
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.3%@ 6.98+5.9%
1-0
11.4%@ 7.85+5.7%
1-1
10.7%@ 8.54+5.5%
2-1 ✓
9.7%@ 7.49+3.7%
3-0
8.2%@ 9.28+3.4%
0-0
7.2%@ 15.25+4.2%
3-1
6.5%@ 9.97+2.0%
4-0
4.1%@ 14.98+1.1%
FC Aarau goals ↓
Stade Nyonnais goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.2%
3.9%
1.9%
0.5%
0.1%
1
11%
11%
3.8%
1.0%
0.2%
2
12%
9.7%
3.8%
1.0%
0.2%
3
8.2%
6.5%
2.5%
0.7%
0.1%
4
4.1%
3.2%
1.3%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Aarau goals (down), columns = Stade Nyonnais goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
2.33
Yverdon Sport
2.00
SC Kriens
1.67
FC Winterthur
1.50
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
Étoile Carouge
1.33
FC Aarau
1.33
FC WIL 1900
0.83
Rapperswil
0.67
Stade Nyonnais
0.33
FC Aarau is 1.00 points better than Stade Nyonnais in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 0.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Winterthur
2.00
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.83
SC Kriens
1.67
Yverdon Sport
1.67
FC WIL 1900
1.50
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
Rapperswil
1.33
FC Aarau
1.33
Étoile Carouge
1.00
Stade Nyonnais
0.67
FC Aarau is 0.67 goals better than Stade Nyonnais in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 0.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
0.50
SC Kriens
1.00
Yverdon Sport
1.00
Étoile Carouge
1.00
FC Winterthur
1.17
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
FC Aarau
1.67
Stade Nyonnais
1.83
Rapperswil
2.17
FC WIL 1900
2.67
FC Aarau is 0.17 goals better than Stade Nyonnais in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Aarau
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.80
1.00
0.47
0.93
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.89
0.67
0.78
0.33
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (12)
1.08
1.00
1.33
0.67
0.83
1.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Nyonnais) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stade Nyonnais
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.80
0.53
0.53
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
1.10
0.75
1.00
0.67
1.17
vs Similar (20)
0.35
0.65
0.45
0.36
0.22
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Aarau
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.63
0.93
0.53
0.93
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.83
0.72
0.89
0.67
0.78
0.78
vs Weaker (12)
1.08
0.50
1.00
0.33
1.17
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Nyonnais) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stade Nyonnais
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.87
0.47
1.00
0.13
0.73
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
1.10
0.50
1.50
0.33
0.83
vs Similar (20)
0.25
0.75
0.45
0.82
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
77.6%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Pinnacle
1.18
888Sport
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
-3.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FW (25)
€6m
SL (24)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
YS (22)
€5m
NXF (26)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
RAP (24)
€4m
ÉC (23)
€4m
SN (21)
€3m
SK (16)
€3m
FC Aarau's squad is €2m more valuable than Stade Nyonnais's (€6m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SL (9)
€3m
YS (10)
€3m
FW (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FW1 (9)
€1m
ÉC (6)
€1m
RAP (8)
€1m
SK (5)
€0m
FC Aarau and Stade Nyonnais have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FW (7)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
RAP (6)
€2m
SL (5)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
ÉC (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
SK (3)
€1m
YS (3)
€1m
SN (3)
€0m
FC Aarau and Stade Nyonnais have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€3m
SL (10)
€2m
FW (9)
€2m
YS (9)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
ÉC (12)
€2m
SK (8)
€2m
RAP (10)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FC Aarau's defence is €1m more valuable than Stade Nyonnais's (€3m vs €1m).
Switzerland: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Yverdon Sport
SC Kriens
FC Winterthur
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Étoile Carouge
FC WIL 1900
Rapperswil