FC Astana are the clear favourites for a home win, with a 45% chance of victory, a 27% chance of a draw and a 28% chance of Kaisar taking the win. The model expects 2.8 goals overall, centring on a 2-goal total at a 25% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.9% chance. Astana’s home form shows they average 2.17 goals scored and 0.67 conceded against weaker opposition, while Kaisar’s away record against stronger teams is 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 11.5 corners at 84.6%, Over 2.5 cards at 82.8%, Over 1.5 goals at 78.0% (hit), Under 10.5 corners at 75.9% and Under 5.5 cards at 70.1%. The recent form narrative notes Astana’s unbeaten run in their last five, while Kaisar is coming off four straight defeats.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, FC Astana, failed to deliver, as the match finished 1-1, a draw that left the model’s Home win call incorrect. The model had given the home side a 45% chance of victory, while the draw probability was 27% and the away win 28%. The game’s most likely score was 1-1, with a 25% chance, and the model’s predicted total of 2.8 goals was close to the actual two. FC Astana’s unbeaten run in their last five games, highlighted by a 3-2 win over Atyrau, was halted by Kaisar’s resilient 1-1 performance after four straight defeats. The only suggested pick, Over 1.5, hit with a 78% probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Astana win✗ Miss
44.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kaisar win✗ Miss
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Astana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.10
2.00
1.14
1.44
1.06
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
3.00
1.00
1.50
0.50
4.50
vs Similar (11)
2.00
1.00
2.17
1.50
1.80
0.40
vs Weaker (15)
1.73
0.67
2.17
0.67
1.44
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaisar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.00
1.33
1.07
1.67
0.93
vs Stronger (9)
1.00
1.22
0.80
1.20
1.25
1.25
vs Similar (20)
1.60
0.95
1.33
1.11
1.82
0.82
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Astana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.0%
Under 1.5
22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.9%
Under 2.5
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.7%
Under 3.5
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.0%
No
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.9%
2-1
9.3%
1-0
8.5%
2-0
7.7%
0-0
7.3%
1-2
7.1%
0-1
6.2%
2-2
5.6%
FC Astana goals ↓
Kaisar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.3%
6.2%
4.5%
1.8%
0.5%
1
8.5%
13%
7.1%
2.9%
0.9%
2
7.7%
9.3%
5.6%
2.3%
0.7%
3
4.1%
4.9%
3.0%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.6%
1.9%
1.2%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Astana goals (down), columns = Kaisar goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ordabasy
2.23
FC Astana
2.04
Aktobe
1.92
Kairat Almaty
1.69
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.50
Kaisar
1.38
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.31
Atyrau
1.31
Zhetysu
1.12
Maqtaaral
1.12
Shakhter Karagandy
1.12
Okzhetpes
1.04
Kaspiy
0.77
FK Aksu
0.69
FC Astana is 0.65 points better than Kaisar in terms of average points per game (2.04 vs 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ordabasy
1.85
Aktobe
1.69
Kairat Almaty
1.65
FC Astana
1.38
Shakhter Karagandy
1.19
Kaisar
1.19
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.15
Maqtaaral
1.12
Kaspiy
1.08
Zhetysu
1.04
Okzhetpes
1.00
Kyzyl-Zhar
0.96
Atyrau
0.92
FK Aksu
0.88
FC Astana is 0.19 goals better than Kaisar in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 1.19).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.81
Kyzyl-Zhar
0.88
Aktobe
0.88
FC Astana
0.92
Atyrau
1.04
Kaisar
1.15
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.23
Maqtaaral
1.23
Kairat Almaty
1.27
Shakhter Karagandy
1.38
Okzhetpes
1.42
Zhetysu
1.46
Kaspiy
1.69
FK Aksu
1.73
FC Astana is 0.23 goals better than Kaisar in terms of goals conceded per game (0.92 vs 1.15).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Astana
For 4.1 · Against 5.1 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.0 · Total 2.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 11.0 · Total 22.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kaisar
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FC Astana
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
8.8
9.8
0.6
0.7
0.6
22.3
24.0
21.5
vs Stronger (4)
11.5
12.0
11.0
3.5
3.5
3.5
22.3
24.0
21.5
vs Similar (21)
6.7
4.5
11.0
0.7
0.7
0.7
-
-
-
vs Weaker (25)
8.5
11.0
6.0
0.1
0.2
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
56%
60%
50%
10%
12%
8%
67%
100%
50%
% under line
44%
40%
50%
90%
88%
92%
33%
0%
50%
This opponent (Kaisar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaisar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (45)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (9)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (32)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (FC Astana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
11.0
Shakhter Karagandy
11.0
Aktobe
9.5
FC Astana
9.2
FK Tobol Kostanay
9.1
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
7.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
6.4
Ordabasy
6.3
Aktobe
5.6
Okzhetpes
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.5
FC Astana
3.2
Shakhter Karagandy
3.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
31.7
Ordabasy
30.0
Aktobe
27.0
FC Astana
22.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
35.2%
Under 9.5
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
66.0%
Under 3.5
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Astana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.43
1.00
0.50
0.44
0.38
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.36
0.50
0.50
0.40
0.20
vs Weaker (15)
0.93
0.20
1.67
0.33
0.44
0.11
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaisar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.47
0.60
0.60
1.07
0.33
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.44
0.00
0.40
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.95
0.50
0.78
0.78
1.09
0.27
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Astana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Astana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Astana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Astana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Astana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.64
1.00
0.69
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.50
0.50
0.50
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (11)
1.55
0.64
1.67
1.00
1.40
0.20
vs Weaker (15)
0.80
0.47
0.50
0.33
1.00
0.56
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaisar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.53
0.73
0.47
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
0.78
0.80
0.80
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.45
0.56
0.33
0.73
0.55
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Astana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Astana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Astana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Astana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 11.5 corners
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Astana
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kamo Hovhannisyan29%
Abzal Beysebekov17%
Marin Tomasov14%
Dušan Jovančić0%
Max Ebong0%
Žarko Tomašević0%
Stjepan Lončar0%
Josip Čondrić0%
Fabien Ourega0%
Aleksa Amanović0%
Varazdat Haroyan0%
Islambek Kuat0%
Yan Vorogovskiy0%
Aleksandr Marochkin0%
Abat Aimbetov0%
Timur Dosmagambetov0%
Elkhan Astanov0%
Dembo Darboe0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Varazdat Haroyan75%
Aleksa Amanović60%
Abzal Beysebekov50%
Islambek Kuat33%
Kamo Hovhannisyan29%
Dušan Jovančić20%
Max Ebong20%
Stjepan Lončar20%
Yan Vorogovskiy20%
Žarko Tomašević17%
Aleksandr Marochkin17%
Dembo Darboe14%
Marin Tomasov0%
Josip Čondrić0%
Fabien Ourega0%
Abat Aimbetov0%
Timur Dosmagambetov0%
Elkhan Astanov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Max Ebong20%
Timur Dosmagambetov17%
Marin Tomasov14%
Dembo Darboe14%
Dušan Jovančić0%
Abzal Beysebekov0%
Žarko Tomašević0%
Stjepan Lončar0%
Josip Čondrić0%
Fabien Ourega0%
Aleksa Amanović0%
Varazdat Haroyan0%
Islambek Kuat0%
Yan Vorogovskiy0%
Kamo Hovhannisyan0%
Aleksandr Marochkin0%
Abat Aimbetov0%
Elkhan Astanov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Dembo Darboe14%
Dušan Jovančić0%
Abzal Beysebekov0%
Marin Tomasov0%
Max Ebong0%
Žarko Tomašević0%
Stjepan Lončar0%
Josip Čondrić0%
Fabien Ourega0%
Aleksa Amanović0%
Varazdat Haroyan0%
Islambek Kuat0%
Yan Vorogovskiy0%
Kamo Hovhannisyan0%
Aleksandr Marochkin0%
Abat Aimbetov0%
Timur Dosmagambetov0%
Elkhan Astanov0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (21)
€3m
FC Astana's squad is €6m more valuable than Kaisar's (€10m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
FC Astana and Kaisar have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
FC Astana's midfield is €2m more valuable than Kaisar's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
AKT (9)
€3m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
FC Astana's defence is €3m more valuable than Kaisar's (€5m vs €2m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ordabasy
Aktobe
Kairat Almaty
Kyzyl-Zhar
FK Tobol Kostanay
Atyrau
Maqtaaral
Shakhter Karagandy
Zhetysu
Okzhetpes
Kaspiy
FK Aksu