FC Astana’s recent unbeaten run of five games, highlighted by a 3-2 win over Atyrau, fuels the model’s confidence in a home victory. The Premier League machine rates a 71% chance for Astana to win, 17% for a draw and 12% for a Kaisar win, making a home win the clear favourite. Astana’s home form is formidable against weaker opponents, averaging 4.5 goals scored and just 1.17 conceded, while Kaisar’s away record against stronger teams is poor, with only 0.83 goals scored and 2.67 conceded. The expected total goals for the match is 3.8, with the most likely total being three goals at a 20% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 2-1 for Astana, carrying an 8.9% chance. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals at 97.3%, Under 7.5 at 95.7%, Home +2 handicap at 95.4%, Home over 0.5 goals at 93.5%, Under 6.5 at 90.4%, Over 1.5 at 90.3%, Away under 2.5 goals at 89.8% and Home or Draw at 87.8%. These selections reflect the model’s view that Astana’s offensive potency and Kaisar’s defensive frailties will shape the outcome.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Astana win
70.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
16.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kaisar win
12.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Astana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.40
1.33
3.21
1.71
1.69
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.88
1.56
2.25
2.12
1.50
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
3.00
1.07
4.50
1.17
1.88
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaisar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.60
1.25
1.19
1.21
2.07
vs Stronger (14)
1.00
1.93
1.12
1.38
0.83
2.67
vs Similar (15)
1.40
1.40
1.38
1.00
1.43
1.86
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Astana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
90.3%
Under 1.5
9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
73.9%
Under 2.5
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
53.7%
Under 3.5
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
63.4%
No
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.9%
3-1
8.1%
2-0
8.0%
3-0
7.3%
1-1
7.1%
4-1
5.6%
1-0
5.2%
4-0
5.0%
FC Astana goals ↓
Kaisar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.8%
1.7%
1.3%
0.5%
0.1%
1
5.2%
7.1%
3.6%
1.3%
0.4%
2
8.0%
8.9%
4.9%
1.8%
0.5%
3
7.3%
8.1%
4.5%
1.7%
0.5%
4
5.0%
5.6%
3.1%
1.1%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Astana goals (down), columns = Kaisar goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kairat Almaty
3.00
FC Astana
2.60
Ordabasy
2.50
Okzhetpes
1.80
Irtysh
1.80
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.80
Zhenys
1.75
Aktobe
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Kaspiy
1.50
Yelimay Semey
1.00
Ulytau
0.80
Kaisar
0.40
Atyrau
0.33
Zhetysu
0.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.17
FC Astana is 2.20 points better than Kaisar in terms of average points per game (2.60 vs 0.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ordabasy
2.67
Kairat Almaty
2.50
FC Astana
2.40
Okzhetpes
2.20
Aktobe
1.83
Zhenys
1.75
Kaspiy
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Irtysh
1.60
Kaisar
1.40
Ulytau
1.20
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.17
Yelimay Semey
1.17
Atyrau
0.83
Zhetysu
0.60
FC Astana is 1.00 goals better than Kaisar in terms of goals scored per game (2.40 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.67
Kairat Almaty
0.75
Zhenys
1.00
FC Astana
1.00
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.40
Yelimay Semey
1.50
Kaspiy
1.50
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Ulytau
1.60
Aktobe
1.67
Irtysh
1.80
Atyrau
1.83
Kaisar
2.00
Zhetysu
2.80
Altay (Kazakhstan)
3.00
FC Astana is 1.00 goals better than Kaisar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Astana
For 5.5 · Against 3.5 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 4.0 · Against 1.5 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.0 · Against 9.5 · Total 26.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kaisar
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FC Astana
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.3
9.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
22.8
21.7
24.0
vs Stronger (1)
6.0
6.0
-
1.0
1.0
-
15.0
15.0
-
vs Similar (28)
10.2
11.0
9.7
1.2
1.1
1.3
24.4
25.0
24.0
vs Weaker (21)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
67%
33%
8%
8%
8%
67%
67%
67%
% under line
50%
33%
67%
92%
92%
92%
33%
33%
33%
This opponent (Kaisar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaisar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (21)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (FC Astana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
10.4
FK Tobol Kostanay
10.0
Aktobe
9.5
FC Astana
8.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Aktobe
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.4
FC Astana
4.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Okzhetpes
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ordabasy
30.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
28.7
Aktobe
27.0
Kairat Almaty
26.1
FC Astana
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Astana or Draw
87.8%
Avg Implied -
71%
17%
12%
covers FC Astana + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Astana or Kaisar
83.1%
Avg Implied -
71%
17%
12%
covers FC Astana + Kaisar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kaisar
29.1%
Avg Implied -
71%
17%
12%
covers Draw + Kaisar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Astana over/under 0.5
Over
93.5%
Under
6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Astana over/under 1.5
Over
75.8%
Under
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Astana over/under 2.5
Over
51.6%
Under
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Astana over/under 3.5
Over
29.4%
Under
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 0.5
Over
67.1%
Under
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 1.5
Over
30.5%
Under
69.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 2.5
Over
10.2%
Under
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 3.5
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Astana, so a minus line means FC Astana give that many goals of a start and Kaisar receive them. At -1, FC Astana must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Astana win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Astana)
FC Astana -2
31.2%
Draw -2
19.9%
Kaisar +2
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FC Astana)
FC Astana -1
51.0%
Draw -1
19.9%
Kaisar +1
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FC Astana)
FC Astana +1
87.8%
Draw +1
7.7%
Kaisar -1
4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FC Astana)
FC Astana +2
95.4%
Draw +2
3.3%
Kaisar -2
1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Astana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.70
1.50
1.14
0.81
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.12
0.94
1.38
1.38
0.88
0.50
vs Weaker (14)
1.14
0.43
1.67
0.83
0.75
0.12
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaisar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.69
0.38
0.57
1.21
vs Stronger (14)
0.57
0.71
0.75
0.25
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.87
0.62
0.50
0.57
1.29
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Astana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Astana over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Astana over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Astana over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Astana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.63
1.71
0.57
0.88
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.62
0.88
0.75
0.62
0.50
vs Weaker (14)
1.86
0.64
2.83
0.33
1.12
0.88
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaisar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.83
0.56
0.81
0.64
0.86
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
1.21
0.38
1.12
0.50
1.33
vs Similar (15)
0.80
0.53
0.75
0.50
0.86
0.57
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Astana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Astana over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Astana over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Astana over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Astana · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kipras Kazukolovas50%
Marin Tomasov25%
Branimir Kalaica25%
Ramazan Karimov0%
Karlo Bartolec0%
Nazmi Gripshi0%
Max Ebong0%
Josip Čondrić0%
Barnes Osei0%
Aleksa Amanović0%
Ousmane Camara0%
Islambek Kuat0%
Yan Vorogovskiy0%
Aleksandr Marochkin0%
Geoffrey Chinedu Charles0%
Elkhan Astanov0%
Nnamdi Ahanonu0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Josip Čondrić67%
Max Ebong50%
Aleksa Amanović50%
Islambek Kuat33%
Karlo Bartolec25%
Geoffrey Chinedu Charles25%
Barnes Osei20%
Elkhan Astanov20%
Ramazan Karimov17%
Marin Tomasov0%
Nazmi Gripshi0%
Branimir Kalaica0%
Ousmane Camara0%
Yan Vorogovskiy0%
Aleksandr Marochkin0%
Kipras Kazukolovas0%
Nnamdi Ahanonu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Karlo Bartolec50%
Marin Tomasov25%
Yan Vorogovskiy25%
Ramazan Karimov0%
Nazmi Gripshi0%
Max Ebong0%
Josip Čondrić0%
Barnes Osei0%
Branimir Kalaica0%
Aleksa Amanović0%
Ousmane Camara0%
Islambek Kuat0%
Aleksandr Marochkin0%
Geoffrey Chinedu Charles0%
Elkhan Astanov0%
Kipras Kazukolovas0%
Nnamdi Ahanonu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nnamdi Ahanonu33%
Geoffrey Chinedu Charles25%
Marin Tomasov0%
Ramazan Karimov0%
Karlo Bartolec0%
Nazmi Gripshi0%
Max Ebong0%
Josip Čondrić0%
Barnes Osei0%
Branimir Kalaica0%
Aleksa Amanović0%
Ousmane Camara0%
Islambek Kuat0%
Yan Vorogovskiy0%
Aleksandr Marochkin0%
Elkhan Astanov0%
Kipras Kazukolovas0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
IRT (26)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
A( (20)
€3m
ZHE (21)
€3m
ULY (20)
€3m
FC Astana's squad is €6m more valuable than Kaisar's (€10m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ULY (7)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
IRT (6)
€1m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
FC Astana and Kaisar have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
IRT (7)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ULY (6)
€1m
A( (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
FC Astana's midfield is €2m more valuable than Kaisar's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
IRT (13)
€2m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
ULY (7)
€1m
FC Astana's defence is €3m more valuable than Kaisar's (€5m vs €2m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →
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Ordabasy
Kairat Almaty
Aktobe
Okzhetpes
Kaspiy
FK Tobol Kostanay
Irtysh
Kyzyl-Zhar
Zhenys
Yelimay Semey
Ulytau
Atyrau
Altay (Kazakhstan)
Zhetysu