The model sees a high-scoring encounter, with an expected 3.4 goals and a most likely total of three. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.4% chance. Home side FC Augsburg, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages one goal scored and 2.6 conceded, while Bayer Leverkusen, on the road against a weaker side, scores 1.33 and concedes 1.67. The probabilities for the match result are 28% for a home win, 24% for a draw, and 48% for an away win, making an away win the favoured outcome. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.2% with a 2% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.1%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.7%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.4%), Under 6.5 (95.4% with a 3% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (93.8%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (93.4%), and Home under 1.5 HT goals (90.2%). The model’s selection favours an away win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Augsburg win
28.9%
Avg Implied 21.9% · @ 4.30
Edge
+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.51
Marathonbet
4.45
Unibet
4.35
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.30
Draw
24.2%
Avg Implied 22.2% · @ 4.24
Edge
+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.46
Marathonbet
4.40
Betano
4.40
Betfair
4.33
Dafabet
4.30
Bayer Leverkusen win
46.9%
Avg Implied 56.0% · @ 1.68
Edge
-9.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.74
Marathonbet
1.73
Dafabet
1.71
William Hil
1.70
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Augsburg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.63
1.56
1.31
1.07
2.00
vs Stronger (11)
1.09
2.09
1.00
2.60
1.17
1.67
vs Similar (19)
1.47
1.37
1.82
0.73
1.00
2.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Bayer Leverkusen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bayer Leverkusen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.33
2.00
1.14
1.38
1.50
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (11)
1.82
1.27
2.00
1.40
1.67
1.17
vs Weaker (16)
1.75
1.38
2.29
1.00
1.33
1.67
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Augsburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.7%
@ 1.10+1.6%
Under 1.5
14.3%
@ 5.86-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
1xBet
1.07
Under
Unibet
6.10
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.80
1xBet
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
65.1%
@ 1.41-1.6%
Under 2.5
34.9%
@ 2.81+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Unibet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Betano
2.85
Marathonbet
2.80
10Bet
2.80
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
43.1%
@ 2.08-3.1%
Under 3.5
56.9%
@ 1.78+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.12
Betano
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Under
1xBet
1.87
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
Betano
1.78
10Bet
1.73
Both teams to score
Yes
66.2%
@ 1.44+1.4%
No
33.8%
@ 2.63-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Unibet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
William Hil
1.44
No
Betfair
2.75
1xBet
2.69
Marathonbet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
William Hil
2.62
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%@ 8.21+5.1%
1-2
9.2%@ 7.73+3.2%
2-1
7.1%@ 12.82+3.5%
2-2
6.7%@ 11.33+2.6%
0-2
6.3%@ 10.09+1.7%
1-3
5.8%@ 10.91+1.6%
0-1
5.7%@ 10.86+1.4%
0-0
4.5%@ 19.77+2.2%
FC Augsburg goals ↓
Bayer Leverkusen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
5.7%
6.3%
4.0%
1.9%
1
4.1%
11%
9.2%
5.8%
2.7%
2
3.7%
7.1%
6.7%
4.2%
2.0%
3
1.8%
3.4%
3.2%
2.0%
1.0%
4
0.7%
1.3%
1.2%
0.7%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Augsburg goals (down), columns = Bayer Leverkusen goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bayern München
2.62
Borussia Dortmund
2.15
RB Leipzig
1.91
VfB Stuttgart
1.82
1899 Hoffenheim
1.79
Bayer Leverkusen
1.74
SC Freiburg
1.38
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.29
FC Augsburg
1.26
FSV Mainz 05
1.18
Union Berlin
1.15
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.12
Hamburger SV
1.12
SV Elversberg
1.00
SC Paderborn 07
1.00
FC Schalke 04
1.00
1. FC Köln
0.94
Werder Bremen
0.94
FC Augsburg is 0.47 points worse than Bayer Leverkusen in terms of average points per game (1.26 vs 1.74).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bayern München
3.59
VfB Stuttgart
2.09
Borussia Dortmund
2.06
Bayer Leverkusen
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.94
1899 Hoffenheim
1.91
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.79
SC Freiburg
1.50
1. FC Köln
1.44
FC Augsburg
1.32
FSV Mainz 05
1.29
Union Berlin
1.29
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.24
Hamburger SV
1.18
SV Elversberg
1.15
FC Schalke 04
1.14
Werder Bremen
1.09
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
FC Augsburg is 0.68 goals worse than Bayer Leverkusen in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Borussia Dortmund
1.00
Bayern München
1.06
Bayer Leverkusen
1.38
RB Leipzig
1.38
VfB Stuttgart
1.44
1899 Hoffenheim
1.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.56
FSV Mainz 05
1.56
Hamburger SV
1.59
SC Freiburg
1.68
Union Berlin
1.71
Werder Bremen
1.76
FC Augsburg
1.79
1. FC Köln
1.85
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.91
SV Elversberg
2.10
FC Schalke 04
2.11
FC Augsburg is 0.41 goals worse than Bayer Leverkusen in terms of goals conceded per game (1.79 vs 1.38).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bayern München
67%
Bayer Leverkusen
59%
VfB Stuttgart
58%
1899 Hoffenheim
55%
Eintracht Frankfurt
55%
RB Leipzig
54%
Borussia Dortmund
53%
SC Paderborn 07
52%
Werder Bremen
51%
SC Freiburg
48%
1. FC Köln
47%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
47%
Hamburger SV
45%
FSV Mainz 05
44%
FC Augsburg
44%
Union Berlin
40%
FC Augsburg is 15.2 percentage points worse than Bayer Leverkusen in terms of average possession (44% vs 59%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Augsburg
For 4.8 · Against 6.5 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.2 · Against 10.1 · Total 18.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bayer Leverkusen
For 7.0 · Against 4.2 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.2 · Against 10.4 · Total 18.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Augsburg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.2
9.7
3.9
4.0
3.8
21.4
21.3
21.5
vs Stronger (19)
11.3
10.4
12.1
3.5
4.6
2.6
19.7
21.7
17.8
vs Similar (31)
9.2
10.1
8.3
4.2
3.8
4.6
22.4
21.1
23.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
55%
52%
58%
56%
56%
56%
55%
56%
54%
% under line
45%
48%
42%
44%
44%
44%
45%
44%
46%
This opponent (Bayer Leverkusen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bayer Leverkusen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.8
9.6
4.4
4.2
4.6
19.6
18.8
20.4
vs Stronger (6)
10.2
5.7
14.7
4.3
7.0
1.7
16.0
19.3
12.7
vs Similar (17)
10.0
10.6
9.4
4.0
4.3
3.6
19.1
18.7
19.5
vs Weaker (27)
9.3
10.2
8.6
4.7
3.5
5.8
20.8
18.8
22.5
% over line
55%
58%
52%
54%
56%
52%
37%
29%
44%
% under line
45%
42%
48%
46%
44%
48%
63%
71%
56%
This opponent (FC Augsburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
RB Leipzig
10.4
1899 Hoffenheim
10.3
1. FC Köln
10.3
VfB Stuttgart
10.0
SC Paderborn 07
10.0
FC Augsburg
9.8
FC Schalke 04
9.8
Hamburger SV
9.7
Bayern München
9.7
Union Berlin
9.6
Bayer Leverkusen
9.6
SV Elversberg
9.5
Werder Bremen
9.5
FSV Mainz 05
9.4
Eintracht Frankfurt
9.1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
9.0
Borussia Dortmund
8.9
SC Freiburg
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Hamburger SV
5.2
SC Paderborn 07
4.6
Werder Bremen
4.6
SV Elversberg
4.5
Bayer Leverkusen
4.5
FC Schalke 04
4.4
1. FC Köln
4.4
FSV Mainz 05
4.3
FC Augsburg
4.2
Union Berlin
4.1
VfB Stuttgart
4.1
1899 Hoffenheim
4.1
Eintracht Frankfurt
3.9
Bayern München
3.9
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3.9
Borussia Dortmund
3.7
SC Freiburg
3.6
RB Leipzig
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SV Elversberg
24.3
SC Paderborn 07
24.2
Hamburger SV
24.1
FC Schalke 04
23.6
SC Freiburg
22.9
1899 Hoffenheim
22.8
VfB Stuttgart
22.6
Borussia Dortmund
22.3
FSV Mainz 05
21.7
FC Augsburg
21.7
Union Berlin
21.6
Werder Bremen
20.5
1. FC Köln
20.5
Borussia Mönchengladbach
20.5
RB Leipzig
19.9
Eintracht Frankfurt
19.8
Bayer Leverkusen
19.7
Bayern München
18.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
53.8%
@ 1.71+0.2%
Under 9.5
46.2%
@ 1.98-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.71
Under
Unibet
1.98
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
59.4%
Under 3.5
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
39.3%
Under 21.5
60.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Augsburg or Draw
56.4%
Avg Implied 43.5% · @ 2.17
Edge
+12.9%
29%
24%
47%
covers FC Augsburg + Draw
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.20
1xBet
2.19
Marathonbet
2.19
FC Augsburg or Bayer Leverkusen
74.9%
Avg Implied 78.1% · @ 1.21
Edge
-3.2%
29%
24%
47%
covers FC Augsburg + Bayer Leverkusen
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Draw or Bayer Leverkusen
68.7%
Avg Implied 78.4% · @ 1.20
Edge
-9.6%
29%
24%
47%
covers Draw + Bayer Leverkusen
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
Betano
1.24
William Hil
1.20
Unibet
1.20
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Augsburg over/under 0.5
Over
77.0%
@ 1.30+5.4%
Under
23.0%
@ 3.27-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Unibet
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.53
Marathonbet
3.34
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Betano
3.20
FC Augsburg over/under 1.5
Over
43.2%
@ 2.45+5.0%
Under
56.8%
@ 1.51-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Unibet
2.48
10Bet
2.45
Betano
2.45
1xBet
2.44
Under
Marathonbet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.55
1xBet
1.55
Betano
1.52
Betfair
1.50
FC Augsburg over/under 2.5
Over
18.3%
@ 5.90+2.6%
Under
81.7%
@ 1.10-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Unibet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.75
10Bet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
FC Augsburg over/under 3.5
Over
6.2%
@ 14.62-0.4%
Under
93.8%
@ 1.02+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Bayer Leverkusen over/under 0.5
Over
82.8%
@ 1.07-4.0%
Under
17.2%
@ 7.07+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Unibet
1.06
Under
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
1xBet
7.30
10Bet
6.50
Unibet
6.50
Bayer Leverkusen over/under 1.5
Over
52.5%
@ 1.47-11.0%
Under
47.5%
@ 2.56+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.47
Under
Bet365
2.62
Marathonbet
2.60
Betfair
2.60
Pinnacle
2.60
1xBet
2.60
Bayer Leverkusen over/under 2.5
Over
25.9%
@ 2.49-11.7%
Under
74.1%
@ 1.50+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.55
Bet365
2.50
Unibet
2.50
Pinnacle
2.50
1xBet
2.49
Under
1xBet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.52
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
Bayer Leverkusen over/under 3.5
Over
10.2%
@ 4.86-8.9%
Under
89.8%
@ 1.15+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.20
Bet365
5.00
Unibet
4.90
1xBet
4.85
Marathonbet
4.85
Under
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Augsburg, so a minus line means FC Augsburg give that many goals of a start and Bayer Leverkusen receive them. At -1, FC Augsburg must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Augsburg win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Augsburg)
FC Augsburg -2
5.5%
@ 20.33+1.0%
Draw -2
9.4%
@ 11.67+1.5%
Bayer Leverkusen +2
85.1%
@ 1.05-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
23.00
Betfair
21.00
10Bet
17.00
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
13.00
10Bet
9.00
Away
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Handicap -1 (FC Augsburg)
FC Augsburg -1
14.9%
@ 8.96+4.8%
Draw -1
16.3%
@ 6.27+1.9%
Bayer Leverkusen +1
68.7%
@ 1.20-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
10Bet
8.50
Unibet
8.50
Marathonbet
8.30
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.35
10Bet
6.00
Unibet
6.00
Away
Marathonbet
1.24
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Betfair
1.17
Handicap +1 (FC Augsburg)
FC Augsburg +1
56.4%
@ 2.15+14.5%
Draw +1
19.8%
@ 3.81-3.8%
Bayer Leverkusen -1
23.8%
@ 2.61-10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
2.20
Marathonbet
2.19
10Bet
2.15
Unibet
2.12
Betfair
2.10
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.75
Unibet
3.65
Away
Marathonbet
2.62
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.60
Unibet
2.60
Betfair
2.60
Handicap +2 (FC Augsburg)
FC Augsburg +2
76.2%
@ 1.43+13.9%
Draw +2
13.5%
@ 4.74-5.3%
Bayer Leverkusen -2
10.4%
@ 4.71-8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Unibet
1.43
Betfair
1.40
Draw
Marathonbet
5.10
Bet365
5.00
Unibet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Away
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.60
Bet365
4.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Augsburg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.87
0.69
0.69
0.50
1.07
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.18
0.60
1.60
0.67
0.83
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.68
0.73
0.27
0.38
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Bayer Leverkusen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bayer Leverkusen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.77
0.86
0.57
0.75
0.94
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
1.00
0.82
1.00
0.80
1.00
0.83
vs Weaker (16)
0.75
0.81
0.86
0.57
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Augsburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.3%
@ 1.22-2.6%
Under 0.5
25.7%
@ 4.05+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.50
William Hil
4.20
1xBet
4.05
Marathonbet
4.05
10Bet
4.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.2%
@ 2.06-8.5%
Under 1.5
62.8%
@ 1.74+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.17
Betano
2.15
Unibet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.06
1xBet
2.06
Under
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.76
Bet365
1.73
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.1%
@ 4.35-7.4%
Under 2.5
85.9%
@ 1.19+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
William Hil
4.50
Unibet
4.50
Betano
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Under
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Augsburg over/under 0.5 HT
Over
43.8%
@ 2.10-0.7%
Under
56.2%
@ 1.68+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.15
Unibet
2.14
Pinnacle
2.13
Marathonbet
2.06
10Bet
2.05
Under
10Bet
1.73
1xBet
1.71
Pinnacle
1.68
Marathonbet
1.68
Betano
1.65
FC Augsburg over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.0%
@ 6.54-4.1%
Under
90.0%
@ 1.07+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.90
Unibet
6.75
1xBet
6.40
Betano
6.40
10Bet
6.25
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
Unibet
1.05
FC Augsburg over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.5%
@ 12.50-5.9%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Bayer Leverkusen over/under 0.5 HT
Over
52.2%
@ 1.52-9.2%
Under
47.8%
@ 2.41+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.53
Unibet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Under
Pinnacle
2.52
10Bet
2.50
1xBet
2.37
Unibet
2.35
Betano
2.32
Bayer Leverkusen over/under 1.5 HT
Over
18.0%
@ 3.49-8.5%
Under
82.0%
@ 1.26+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.60
1xBet
3.50
Betano
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
10Bet
3.35
Under
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Unibet
1.23
Bayer Leverkusen over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.9%
@ 9.10-6.2%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.03+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.80
Unibet
9.50
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Unibet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Augsburg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
0.88
0.62
0.57
0.93
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
0.91
0.40
1.00
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (19)
0.89
0.68
1.09
0.45
0.62
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Bayer Leverkusen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bayer Leverkusen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.57
1.14
0.57
0.62
0.56
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.45
1.00
0.60
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (16)
1.00
0.56
1.43
0.43
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Augsburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
82.1%
@ 1.12-1.6%
Under 0.5
17.9%
@ 5.77+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Under
1xBet
6.70
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.85
Betano
5.60
William Hil
5.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
49.6%
@ 1.63-7.8%
Under 1.5
50.4%
@ 2.21+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.70
10Bet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.63
1xBet
1.63
Betano
1.62
Under
Betano
2.27
Marathonbet
2.27
1xBet
2.27
Bet365
2.20
Unibet
2.20
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
23.0%
@ 2.95-8.7%
Under 2.5
77.0%
@ 1.37+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.10
10Bet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
1xBet
2.93
Marathonbet
2.93
Under
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.35
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Augsburg over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.3%
@ 1.76-1.7%
Under
48.7%
@ 1.98+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.77
1xBet
1.72
Under
1xBet
2.02
Betano
1.98
Marathonbet
1.94
FC Augsburg over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.7%
@ 4.79-2.6%
Under
83.3%
@ 1.15+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
1xBet
4.60
Betano
4.55
Under
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
FC Augsburg over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.5%
@ 10.25-5.7%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.03+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Bayer Leverkusen over/under 0.5 2H
Over
56.6%
@ 1.34-12.6%
Under
43.4%
@ 3.02+12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Under
Betano
3.05
1xBet
3.00
Bayer Leverkusen over/under 1.5 2H
Over
21.9%
@ 2.58-13.9%
Under
78.1%
@ 1.45+13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.65
Marathonbet
2.58
Betano
2.55
1xBet
2.55
Under
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Bayer Leverkusen over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.6%
@ 5.80-9.4%
Under
93.4%
@ 1.10+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.10
Betano
5.50
Under
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.08
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.9%
Under 7.5
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+3.0%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.5%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.7%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.1%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Unibet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+6.2%
Under 6.5
95.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Betano
1.05
Unibet
1.02
-
+4.0%
Home under 3.5 goals
93.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+0.4%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.4%
1.10
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.08
-
-
-
+9.4%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.0%
1.07
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
Unibet
1.05
+4.1%
Away under 3.5 goals
89.8%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
+8.9%
Under 5.5
89.1%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
+5.0%
Under 25.5 fouls
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.9%
1.19
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
+7.4%
Over 1.5
85.7%
1.10
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
1xBet
1.07
+1.6%
Away +2 handicap
85.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
-
-2.5%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.3%
1.15
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
-
+2.6%
Away over 0.5 goals
82.8%
1.07
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Unibet
1.06
-4.0%
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.1%
1.12
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-1.6%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
82.0%
1.26
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Unibet
1.23
+8.5%
Home under 2.5 goals
81.7%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
-2.6%
Over 2.5 cards
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
78.1%
1.45
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.44
10Bet
1.42
-
+13.9%
Under 4.5
77.5%
1.31
Betano
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
10Bet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
+5.7%
Home over 0.5 goals
77.0%
1.30
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Unibet
1.29
+5.4%
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.0%
1.37
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.35
+8.7%
Under 5.5 cards
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
76.2%
1.43
10Bet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Unibet
1.43
Betfair
1.40
+13.9%
Under 23.5 fouls
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.9%
1.21
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.22
-3.2%
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.3%
1.22
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
-2.6%
Away under 2.5 goals
74.1%
1.50
1xBet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.52
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
+11.7%
Under 11.5 corners
70.0%
1.38
Unibet
1.38
-
-
-
-
+3.4%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Augsburg · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Michael Gregoritsch24%
Arthur Chaves18%
Anton Kade17%
Alexis Claude-Maurice17%
Fabian Rieder15%
Rodrigo Ribeiro14%
Samuel Essende12%
Phillip Tietz8%
Robin Fellhauer8%
Elvis Rexhbeçaj7%
Kristijan Jakić7%
Dimitrios Giannoulis7%
Mert Kömür7%
Han-Noah Massengo6%
Chrislain Matsima5%
Noahkai Banks4%
Marius Wolf3%
Mads Pedersen0%
Jeffrey Gouweleeuw0%
Finn Dahmen0%
Keven Schlotterbeck0%
Cedric Zesiger0%
Yannik Keitel0%
Ismael Gharbi0%
Elias Saad0%
Aiman Dardari0%
Uchenna Ogundu0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Noahkai Banks35%
Yannik Keitel33%
Aiman Dardari33%
Chrislain Matsima30%
Dimitrios Giannoulis28%
Jeffrey Gouweleeuw25%
Phillip Tietz25%
Cedric Zesiger24%
Keven Schlotterbeck23%
Kristijan Jakić21%
Elvis Rexhbeçaj15%
Han-Noah Massengo15%
Anton Kade14%
Marius Wolf13%
Samuel Essende12%
Fabian Rieder12%
Michael Gregoritsch12%
Alexis Claude-Maurice10%
Arthur Chaves9%
Elias Saad9%
Rodrigo Ribeiro7%
Robin Fellhauer6%
Mert Kömür3%
Finn Dahmen3%
Mads Pedersen0%
Ismael Gharbi0%
Uchenna Ogundu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dimitrios Giannoulis17%
Mert Kömür13%
Michael Gregoritsch12%
Fabian Rieder9%
Elias Saad9%
Jeffrey Gouweleeuw8%
Robin Fellhauer8%
Alexis Claude-Maurice7%
Chrislain Matsima5%
Noahkai Banks4%
Keven Schlotterbeck4%
Kristijan Jakić4%
Marius Wolf3%
Han-Noah Massengo3%
Samuel Essende0%
Mads Pedersen0%
Elvis Rexhbeçaj0%
Finn Dahmen0%
Phillip Tietz0%
Cedric Zesiger0%
Yannik Keitel0%
Anton Kade0%
Arthur Chaves0%
Ismael Gharbi0%
Rodrigo Ribeiro0%
Aiman Dardari0%
Uchenna Ogundu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Anton Kade28%
Alexis Claude-Maurice27%
Michael Gregoritsch24%
Rodrigo Ribeiro21%
Mert Kömür10%
Fabian Rieder9%
Robin Fellhauer3%
Marius Wolf0%
Han-Noah Massengo0%
Dimitrios Giannoulis0%
Samuel Essende0%
Kristijan Jakić0%
Mads Pedersen0%
Jeffrey Gouweleeuw0%
Elvis Rexhbeçaj0%
Finn Dahmen0%
Phillip Tietz0%
Keven Schlotterbeck0%
Cedric Zesiger0%
Chrislain Matsima0%
Yannik Keitel0%
Arthur Chaves0%
Ismael Gharbi0%
Elias Saad0%
Aiman Dardari0%
Noahkai Banks0%
Uchenna Ogundu0%
Bayer Leverkusen · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Patrik Schick36%
Alex Grimaldo24%
Martin Terrier21%
Malik Tillman17%
Christian Kofane16%
Edmond Tapsoba11%
Jarell Quansah11%
Ernest Poku11%
Jonas Hofmann11%
Aleix García10%
Ibrahim Maza9%
Robert Andrich7%
Arthur6%
Montrell Culbreath6%
Lucas Vázquez5%
Nathan Tella5%
Exequiel Palacios0%
Mark Flekken0%
Janis Blaswich0%
Loïc Badé0%
Ezequiel Fernández0%
Jeanuël Belocian0%
Eliesse Ben Seghir0%
Alejo Sarco0%
Claudio Echeverri0%
Axel Tape0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Edmond Tapsoba27%
Jarell Quansah20%
Exequiel Palacios20%
Aleix García20%
Alex Grimaldo17%
Robert Andrich17%
Lucas Vázquez16%
Loïc Badé15%
Eliesse Ben Seghir13%
Axel Tape12%
Christian Kofane11%
Jonas Hofmann11%
Ezequiel Fernández10%
Arthur10%
Malik Tillman10%
Nathan Tella9%
Claudio Echeverri9%
Ibrahim Maza7%
Janis Blaswich6%
Patrik Schick5%
Ernest Poku4%
Martin Terrier4%
Mark Flekken3%
Jeanuël Belocian0%
Alejo Sarco0%
Montrell Culbreath0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alex Grimaldo24%
Aleix García20%
Nathan Tella18%
Ernest Poku18%
Lucas Vázquez16%
Ibrahim Maza14%
Christian Kofane14%
Arthur10%
Patrik Schick10%
Jonas Hofmann7%
Edmond Tapsoba5%
Martin Terrier4%
Exequiel Palacios4%
Ezequiel Fernández3%
Robert Andrich2%
Mark Flekken0%
Janis Blaswich0%
Jarell Quansah0%
Malik Tillman0%
Loïc Badé0%
Jeanuël Belocian0%
Eliesse Ben Seghir0%
Alejo Sarco0%
Claudio Echeverri0%
Montrell Culbreath0%
Axel Tape0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Patrik Schick31%
Christian Kofane20%
Ibrahim Maza18%
Nathan Tella14%
Alex Grimaldo13%
Malik Tillman5%
Jarell Quansah5%
Martin Terrier4%
Jonas Hofmann4%
Edmond Tapsoba2%
Ernest Poku2%
Lucas Vázquez0%
Exequiel Palacios0%
Robert Andrich0%
Mark Flekken0%
Janis Blaswich0%
Aleix García0%
Loïc Badé0%
Ezequiel Fernández0%
Jeanuël Belocian0%
Eliesse Ben Seghir0%
Arthur0%
Alejo Sarco0%
Claudio Echeverri0%
Montrell Culbreath0%
Axel Tape0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (29)
€1076m
BD (29)
€529m
RL (31)
€506m
BL (30)
€499m
VS (54)
€430m
EF (26)
€323m
1H (53)
€309m
SF (30)
€243m
FM0 (29)
€175m
FA (28)
€161m
1FK (74)
€133m
BM (29)
€129m
UB (29)
€123m
WB (33)
€119m
HS (28)
€117m
FS0 (29)
€67m
SE (27)
€52m
SP0 (33)
€43m
FC Augsburg's squad is €338m less valuable than Bayer Leverkusen's (€161m vs €499m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (10)
€554m
BL (13)
€246m
RL (12)
€212m
VS (19)
€193m
EF (11)
€174m
BD (8)
€170m
1H (22)
€111m
SF (10)
€96m
1FK (25)
€72m
FA (12)
€64m
BM (11)
€58m
WB (13)
€50m
FM0 (11)
€49m
UB (10)
€46m
HS (11)
€46m
SE (12)
€33m
FS0 (8)
€17m
SP0 (11)
€14m
FC Augsburg's attack is €182m less valuable than Bayer Leverkusen's (€64m vs €246m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (6)
€187m
BD (7)
€146m
RL (6)
€109m
1H (11)
€105m
VS (10)
€92m
BL (5)
€91m
FM0 (5)
€80m
EF (4)
€78m
SF (5)
€36m
HS (5)
€34m
WB (5)
€28m
UB (6)
€26m
FS0 (8)
€24m
FA (6)
€23m
BM (5)
€22m
1FK (16)
€19m
SP0 (13)
€18m
SE (3)
€4m
FC Augsburg's midfield is €68m less valuable than Bayer Leverkusen's (€23m vs €91m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (13)
€336m
BD (14)
€214m
RL (13)
€185m
BL (12)
€162m
VS (25)
€145m
SF (15)
€110m
1H (20)
€92m
FA (10)
€74m
EF (11)
€72m
UB (13)
€50m
BM (13)
€49m
FM0 (13)
€47m
1FK (33)
€43m
WB (15)
€41m
HS (12)
€37m
FS0 (13)
€26m
SE (12)
€14m
SP0 (9)
€11m
FC Augsburg's defence is €88m less valuable than Bayer Leverkusen's (€74m vs €162m).
Germany: Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: Bundesliga stats & trends →
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Bayern München
SC Freiburg
RB Leipzig
Borussia Dortmund
SV Elversberg
1. FC Köln
Eintracht Frankfurt
Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05
SC Paderborn 07
1899 Hoffenheim
Hamburger SV
Werder Bremen
Borussia Mönchengladbach
FC Schalke 04
VfB Stuttgart