PythiaFootballBETA
This Premier League match between FC Dnepr Mogilev and Belshina is expected to be a high-scoring affair, with an average of 3.7 goals anticipated. FC Dnepr Mogilev's recent form, however, has been concerning, particularly coming off a 0-3 defeat to Slavia Mozyr. The team has struggled at home, scoring 1.58 goals per match and conceding 1.25 goals against similar opponents.
Belshina, on the other hand, has also been in a slump, with a recent 0-4 loss to Dinamo Brest, but they've managed 1.3 goals scored and conceded away against similar opponents. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favour of FC Dnepr Mogilev, with a probability of 8.9%.
The model predicts a home win, with a 53% chance, a 22% chance of a draw, and a 25% chance of an away win. The model's selection for this match is the home win. The suggested picks include Under 21.5 fouls (95.7%), Under 9.5 corners (91.6%), Over 1.5 (89.4%), Over 2.5 (71.8%), and BTTS Yes (70.2%).
FC Dnepr Mogilev's home win streak continued with a 1-1 draw against Belshina, extending their run of consecutive draws to four. The result was a surprise, as the pre-match favourite, FC Dnepr Mogilev, failed to come through, with the model's selection of Home win being incorrect. The model's probability for a Home win was 53%. In contrast, the model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 89.4%, while the selection of Over 2.5 goals missed, with a probability of 71.8%. The model also correctly predicted Over 21.5 fouls, with a probability of 71.5%, and BTTS Yes, with a probability of 70.2%.
FC Dnepr Mogilev| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.60 | 1.20 | 1.60 | 1.07 | 1.60 | 1.33 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.43 | 1.30 | 1.50 | 1.17 | 1.36 | 1.45 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 2.14 | 0.86 | 2.00 | 0.67 | 2.25 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Belshina| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.70 | 1.17 | 1.60 | 1.00 | 1.80 | 1.33 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 2.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.50 | 1.32 | 1.45 | 1.00 | 1.55 | 1.64 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 2.29 | 0.71 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.67 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
| Belshina goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 4.5% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| 2 | 5.9% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 1.3% |
| 3 | 4.4% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| 4 | 2.4% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
FC Dnepr MogilevBelshinaFC Dnepr Mogilev| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.7 | 9.0 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 22.0 | 23.0 | 20.0 |
| vs Stronger (3) | - | - | - | 1.3 | 0.0 | 2.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (37) | 9.7 | 9.0 | 11.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 22.0 | 23.0 | 20.0 |
| vs Weaker (10) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 67% | 50% | 100% | 10% | 8% | 12% | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| % under line | 33% | 50% | 0% | 90% | 92% | 88% | 67% | 50% | 100% |
Belshina| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.0 | - | 10.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 24.0 | - | 24.0 |
| vs Stronger (5) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (36) | 10.0 | - | 10.0 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 24.0 | - | 24.0 |
| vs Weaker (9) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 100% | - | 100% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 100% | - | 100% |
| % under line | 0% | - | 0% | 96% | 96% | 96% | 0% | - | 0% |
FC Dnepr Mogilev| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.53 | 0.73 | 0.47 | 0.73 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.70 | 0.57 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.86 | 0.43 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+32pp vs league) | |||||
Belshina| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.47 | 0.80 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 2.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.68 | 0.59 | 0.64 | 0.45 | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.71 | 0.29 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
FC Dnepr Mogilev| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.67 | 0.87 | 0.60 | 0.87 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.74 | 0.74 | 0.75 | 0.67 | 0.73 | 0.82 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 1.29 | 0.43 | 1.33 | 0.33 | 1.25 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Belshina| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.67 | 0.93 | 0.53 | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.82 | 0.73 | 0.82 | 0.55 | 0.82 | 0.91 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 1.57 | 0.43 | 1.25 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 91.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 89.4% | 1.21 | 1.25 | 1.22 | 1.18 | 1.18 | - | +13.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 81.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 cards | 80.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 74.5% | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.34 | - | - | - | +7.7% | ✗ Miss |
| Over 2.5 | 71.8% | 1.72 | 1.78 | 1.72 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.70 | +17.2% | ✗ Miss |
| BTTS Yes | 70.2% | 1.74 | 1.78 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.70 | 1.70 | +16.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/25 | H | 3-1 | |
| 21/06/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 06/08/22 | H | 4-3 | |
| 20/03/22 | A | 0-0 |
FC Dnepr Mogilev| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 31/07/26 | H | 3-3 | |
| 10/07/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 04/07/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 22/11/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 17/11/25 | H | 0-2 | |
| 13/11/25 | A | 0-0 | |
| 08/11/25 | H | 3-1 | |
| 25/10/25 | H | 3-1 | |
| 18/10/25 | A | 1-2 |
Belshina| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 05/07/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 06/12/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 03/12/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 23/11/25 | A | 2-6 | |
| 15/11/25 | H | 1-3 | |
| 09/11/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 01/11/25 | H | 0-0 | |
| 25/10/25 | A | 3-1 | |
| 18/10/25 | H | 2-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  FC Vitebsk | 7 | 18 | 86% | 2.6 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 1.4 | 29% | 14% | 0% | 9.8 | 50% | 2.8 | 0% | 20.2 | 25% | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 46% |
| 2 |  FC Isloch Minsk R. | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 2.6 | 60% | 40% | 20% | 11.8 | 75% | 3.2 | 25% | 26.2 | 75% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 46% |
| 3 |  Dinamo Brest | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 3.2 | 83% | 67% | 50% | 11.0 | 100% | 3.4 | 40% | 27.8 | 100% | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 52% |
| 4 |  Neman | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 1.7 | 50% | 17% | 0% | 9.4 | 60% | 3.0 | 20% | 27.7 | 67% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 58% |
| 5 |  FC Minsk | 6 | 9 | 50% | 1.5 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.3 | 67% | 67% | 0% | 11.2 | 60% | 1.8 | 0% | 19.4 | 20% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 48% |
| 6 |  Baranovichi | 7 | 9 | 29% | 1.3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 2.7 | 71% | 29% | 29% | 11.8 | 80% | 2.8 | 25% | 28.2 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 44% |
| 7 |  FC Gomel | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 1.8 | 33% | 17% | 17% | 11.8 | 75% | 3.2 | 50% | 28.7 | 100% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 55% |
| 8 |  Bate Borisov | 4 | 8 | 50% | 2.0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 2.0 | 50% | 50% | 25% | 12.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 50% | 25.3 | 67% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 44% |
| 9 |  ML Vitebsk | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 2.0 | 67% | 33% | 33% | 12.7 | 100% | 3.7 | 67% | 31.3 | 100% | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 61% |
| 10 |  Slavia Mozyr | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 2.6 | 60% | 60% | 40% | 10.2 | 50% | 4.2 | 75% | 26.5 | 75% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 11 | Belshina | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2.2 | 80% | 20% | 20% | 10.5 | 75% | 2.2 | 25% | 23.0 | 75% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 46% |
| 12 | FC Dnepr Mogilev | 7 | 4 | 0% | 0.6 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2.1 | 57% | 43% | 14% | 10.5 | 83% | 2.7 | 17% | 22.5 | 50% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 13 |  Torpedo Zhodino | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2.3 | 50% | 33% | 33% | 10.2 | 75% | 3.2 | 75% | 30.5 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 54% |
| 14 |  Naftan | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.8 | 100% | 60% | 40% | 10.0 | 50% | 1.8 | 0% | 21.5 | 25% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 44% |
| 15 |  Dinamo Minsk | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 2.0 | 33% | 33% | 33% | 12.7 | 100% | 3.5 | 50% | 30.0 | 100% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 60% |
| 16 |  Arsenal (Belarus) | 7 | 3 | 14% | 0.4 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 3.1 | 86% | 71% | 29% | 8.1 | 14% | 1.6 | 14% | 20.2 | 33% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 48% |