The contest between FC Dnepr Mogilev and Dinamo Brest is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. The predicted probabilities are 29% for a home victory, 31% for a draw and 40% for Dinamo Brest to come out on top. The expected total of goals is 2.3, with the most likely total being two goals (28% probability). The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 14.4% chance. FC Dnepr Mogilev, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, averages zero goals scored and concedes three. Dinamo Brest, on the road against a similar side, averages 0.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 86.6%, Under 3.5 at 79.6% (hit), Over 3.5 cards at 72.0% and Over 8.5 corners at 71.5%. The recent form shows Dnepr coming off a draw, while Dinamo entered the match after a defeat.
Results analysis
The upset was stark: the pre-match favourite, Dinamo Brest, fell short as FC Dnepr Mogilev secured a 2-0 home win. The model had tipped an away victory with a 40% chance, but that call was wrong. The only other selection made was Under 3.5 goals, which hit with a 79.6% probability. Dnepr’s form was a string of draws and a loss, yet they came off a 0-0 draw against FC Isloch Minsk R. Dinamo, after a 1-3 defeat to ML Vitebsk, had a recent run of one loss and two wins. The final score of 2-0 confirmed the home side’s triumph and the model’s prediction of an away win was incorrect.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Dnepr Mogilev win✓ Hit
29.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest win✗ Miss
40.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
2.12
0.00
2.00
0.80
2.20
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.67
2.33
0.00
3.00
0.80
2.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
12% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Brest
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.88
1.62
1.00
1.20
0.67
2.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.88
1.62
1.00
1.20
0.67
2.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
12% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Dnepr Mogilev) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.6%
Under 1.5
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.8%
Under 2.5
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.4%
Under 3.5
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.0%
No
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-1
11.2%
0-0
11.2%
1-0
9.0%
1-2
8.3%
0-2
7.9%
2-1
6.9%
2-0 ✓
5.4%
FC Dnepr Mogilev goals ↓
Dinamo Brest goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
11%
7.9%
3.3%
1.1%
1
9.0%
14%
8.3%
3.5%
1.1%
2
5.4%
6.9%
4.4%
1.8%
0.6%
3
1.9%
2.4%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.5%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Dnepr Mogilev goals (down), columns = Dinamo Brest goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.17
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
2.00
Dinamo Minsk
1.97
Bate Borisov
1.97
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.80
ML Vitebsk
1.50
FC Minsk
1.47
Torpedo Zhodino
1.43
FC Gomel
1.37
Neman
1.37
Slavia Mozyr
1.23
FC Slutsk
1.07
Belshina
1.00
Dinamo Brest
0.90
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.81
FC Vitebsk
0.73
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.40
FC Dnepr Mogilev is 0.50 points worse than Dinamo Brest in terms of average points per game (0.40 vs 0.90).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
ML Vitebsk
2.50
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.83
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.70
Bate Borisov
1.70
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.67
Dinamo Minsk
1.67
FC Minsk
1.57
Slavia Mozyr
1.40
Neman
1.30
Belshina
1.23
Torpedo Zhodino
1.17
FC Gomel
1.10
Dinamo Brest
0.97
FC Vitebsk
0.93
FC Slutsk
0.87
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.70
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.69
FC Dnepr Mogilev is 0.27 goals worse than Dinamo Brest in terms of goals scored per game (0.70 vs 0.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.57
Bate Borisov
0.70
Dinamo Minsk
0.83
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.90
Torpedo Zhodino
1.07
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.10
Neman
1.10
FC Gomel
1.23
FC Slutsk
1.37
FC Minsk
1.43
Dinamo Brest
1.43
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.47
Slavia Mozyr
1.53
FC Vitebsk
1.63
Belshina
1.67
ML Vitebsk
2.00
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.43
FC Dnepr Mogilev is 1.00 goals worse than Dinamo Brest in terms of goals conceded per game (2.43 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Dnepr Mogilev
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Dinamo Brest
For 5.0 · Against 6.0 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (8)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Brest
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (8)
11.0
9.0
13.0
1.2
1.2
1.3
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
11.0
9.0
13.0
1.2
1.2
1.3
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
0%
100%
25%
20%
33%
-
-
-
% under line
50%
100%
0%
75%
80%
67%
-
-
-
This opponent (FC Dnepr Mogilev) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
FC Minsk
12.0
FC Vitebsk
12.0
Dinamo Brest
11.0
Slavia Mozyr
10.5
FC Gomel
10.3
Belshina
10.3
Shakhter Soligorsk
10.3
FC Slutsk
10.0
FC Isloch Minsk R.
10.0
Bate Borisov
8.0
Dinamo Minsk
8.0
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
7.0
Neman
7.0
Torpedo Zhodino
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Shakhter Soligorsk
8.0
FC Vitebsk
6.0
Dinamo Minsk
5.7
FC Gomel
5.5
Torpedo Zhodino
5.0
Dinamo Brest
5.0
Bate Borisov
4.5
Belshina
4.3
Slavia Mozyr
3.5
FC Isloch Minsk R.
3.5
FC Slutsk
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
59.7%
Under 9.5
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
72.0%
Under 3.5
28.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.12
1.12
0.00
1.33
0.20
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.17
1.17
0.00
2.00
0.20
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
12% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Brest
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.12
0.75
0.00
0.40
0.33
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.12
0.75
0.00
0.40
0.33
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Dnepr Mogilev) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.38
1.00
0.00
0.67
0.60
1.20
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.50
1.17
0.00
1.00
0.60
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
38% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Brest
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.75
0.88
1.00
0.80
0.33
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.88
1.00
0.80
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
25% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Dnepr Mogilev) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FDM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
BEL (16)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
FC Dnepr Mogilev's squad is €3m less valuable than Dinamo Brest's (€3m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
FDM (9)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
FC Dnepr Mogilev and Dinamo Brest have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FDM (6)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
A( (5)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
FC Dnepr Mogilev and Dinamo Brest have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FDM (10)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
FC Dnepr Mogilev's defence is €2m less valuable than Dinamo Brest's (€1m vs €3m).
Belarus: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shakhter Soligorsk
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Bate Borisov
Dinamo Minsk
FC Isloch Minsk R.
FC Minsk
Torpedo Zhodino
Neman
FC Gomel
Slavia Mozyr
FC Slutsk
Belshina
Arsenal (Belarus)
FC Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk