FC Dnepr Mogilev are expected to come out on top in this Belarus Premier League match against Naftan, with a 43% chance of a home win and 28% chance of an away win. The match is expected to be low-scoring, with an average of 2.6 goals expected. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, occurring 13.7% of the time.
At home, FC Dnepr Mogilev have scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded 1.0, facing opponents of similar strength. Naftan, on the other hand, have scored 0.67 goals and conceded 1.75 when playing away against similar opponents.
The model's selection is the home win, with a suggested pick of Under 3.5 goals, occurring 74.5% of the time, and Over 1.5 goals, occurring 73.7% of the time, with a 3% edge. Other suggested picks include Under 9.5 corners, occurring 100% of the time, and Under 21.5 fouls, occurring 100% of the time. The home win percentage is 43%, the draw percentage is 29%, and the away win percentage is 28%.
FC Dnepr Mogilev pulled off a stunning 3-3 draw against Naftan, extending their winless run. The actual result was a far cry from the predicted outcome, as the pre-match favourite, a home win, failed to materialize. The model's selection, also a home win, was incorrect, with a 43% pre-match probability. The suggested picks, however, performed well, with 'Under 9.5 corners' hitting and 'Over 1.5' goals also coming in, both with high probabilities of 100% and 73.7% respectively. 'Under 21.5 fouls' and 'Under 3.5' goals both missed, with probabilities of 100% and 74.5% respectively.
FC Dnepr Mogilev| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.63 | 1.03 | 1.53 | 0.87 | 1.73 | 1.20 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.55 | 1.00 | 1.58 | 0.92 | 1.50 | 1.10 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 2.17 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.25 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
Naftan| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.17 | 1.83 | 1.80 | 1.87 | 0.53 | 1.80 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 0.71 | 2.57 | 1.14 | 2.57 | 0.29 | 2.57 |
| vs Similar (16) | 1.56 | 1.19 | 2.38 | 1.25 | 0.75 | 1.12 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-15pp vs league) | |||||
| Naftan goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 9.0% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 9.9% | 14% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 8.1% | 9.0% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 3.9% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Naftan
FC Dnepr Mogilev| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.0 | 10.0 | - | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | - |
| vs Stronger (4) | - | - | - | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (38) | 10.0 | 10.0 | - | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 21.0 | 21.0 | - |
| vs Weaker (8) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 100% | 100% | - | 10% | 8% | 12% | 0% | 0% | - |
| % under line | 0% | 0% | - | 90% | 92% | 88% | 100% | 100% | - |
Naftan| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 2.8 | 2.5 | 3.1 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (22) | - | - | - | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (28) | - | - | - | 3.1 | 2.7 | 3.4 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 32% | 28% | 36% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 68% | 72% | 64% | - | - | - |
FC Dnepr Mogilev| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.47 | 0.67 | 0.40 | 0.87 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.73 | 0.41 | 0.75 | 0.42 | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 0.83 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+38pp vs league) | |||||
Naftan| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 1.03 | 0.87 | 1.07 | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 0.43 | 1.43 | 0.57 | 1.57 | 0.29 | 1.29 |
| vs Similar (16) | 0.62 | 0.69 | 1.12 | 0.62 | 0.12 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
FC Dnepr Mogilev| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.57 | 0.87 | 0.47 | 0.87 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.82 | 0.59 | 0.83 | 0.50 | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 1.33 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 1.25 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Naftan| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.80 | 0.93 | 0.80 | 0.33 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 0.29 | 1.14 | 0.57 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.29 |
| vs Similar (16) | 0.94 | 0.50 | 1.25 | 0.62 | 0.62 | 0.38 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 90.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 86.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 cards | 79.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 74.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 23.5 fouls | 74.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 3.5 | 74.5% | 1.24 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 1.21 | - | - | +0.8% | ✗ Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 73.7% | 1.31 | 1.34 | 1.32 | 1.30 | 1.27 | - | +3.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/24 | H | 0-3 | |
| 18/05/24 | A | 2-1 |
FC Dnepr Mogilev| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 04/07/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 22/11/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 17/11/25 | H | 0-2 | |
| 13/11/25 | A | 0-0 | |
| 08/11/25 | H | 3-1 | |
| 25/10/25 | H | 3-1 | |
| 18/10/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 11/10/25 | H | 0-0 | |
| 05/10/25 | A | 2-1 |
Naftan| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 23/11/25 | A | 5-0 | |
| 08/11/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 01/11/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 25/10/25 | H | 1-3 | |
| 19/10/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 04/10/25 | H | 5-3 | |
| 25/09/25 | A | 4-2 | |
| 19/09/25 | H | 5-0 | |
| 13/09/25 | A | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC Vitebsk | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 1.3 | 17% | 17% | 0% | 10.3 | 67% | 2.7 | 0% | 20.0 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | - |
| 2 | FC Isloch Minsk R. | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 3.2 | 75% | 50% | 25% | 11.7 | 67% | 3.7 | 33% | 28.7 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 55% |
| 3 | Dinamo Brest | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | 11.0 | 100% | 2.8 | 25% | 28.5 | 100% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | FC Minsk | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.2 | 60% | 60% | 0% | 10.2 | 50% | 1.8 | 0% | 19.8 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 37% |
| 5 | Slavia Mozyr | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 50% | 10.7 | 67% | 3.0 | 67% | 23.3 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 50% |
| 6 | Neman | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 1.8 | 60% | 20% | 0% | 9.5 | 75% | 1.8 | 0% | 23.5 | 50% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 63% |
| 7 | Baranovichi | 6 | 6 | 17% | 1.0 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 3.0 | 83% | 33% | 33% | 11.2 | 75% | 2.8 | 25% | 27.8 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.7 | - |
| 8 | FC Gomel | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 2.0 | 40% | 20% | 20% | 11.7 | 67% | 2.7 | 33% | 28.5 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | - |
| 9 | Bate Borisov | 3 | 5 | 33% | 1.7 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 33% | 10.5 | 100% | 4.0 | 50% | 29.0 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 50% |
| 10 | Belshina | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2.5 | 100% | 25% | 25% | 10.0 | 67% | 1.3 | 0% | 21.0 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 11 | ML Vitebsk | 2 | 4 | 50% | 2.0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 1.0 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 13.5 | 100% | 2.5 | 50% | 34.5 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 12 | Naftan | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4.2 | 100% | 75% | 50% | 10.7 | 67% | 1.3 | 0% | 21.7 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.8 | - |
| 13 | Dinamo Minsk | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 12.0 | 100% | 3.5 | 50% | 30.0 | 100% | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 56% |
| 14 | FC Dnepr Mogilev | 6 | 3 | 0% | 0.5 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2.5 | 67% | 50% | 17% | 10.2 | 80% | 2.8 | 20% | 23.2 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.7 | - |
| 15 | Arsenal (Belarus) | 6 | 3 | 17% | 0.5 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 2.7 | 83% | 67% | 17% | 8.0 | 17% | 1.2 | 0% | 17.8 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 44% |
| 16 | Torpedo Zhodino | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 0 | 8 | -8 | 1.6 | 40% | 20% | 20% | 10.7 | 100% | 3.0 | 67% | 30.0 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1.6 | - |