Slavia Mozyr are favoured to win this Belarus Premier League clash, with the model picking an away victory at 47%. The expected total of 2.6 goals suggests a moderately high-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.2% probability. FC Dnepr Mogilev, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.55 goals scored and 0.73 conceded, while Slavia Mozyr, on the road, averages 1.38 goals scored and 1.46 conceded against similar teams. The home win probability is 25%, the draw 28%, and the away win 47%. Suggested picks include Under 5.5 cards at 91.1%, Under 4.5 cards at 80.7%, Over 1.5 goals at 75.4%, and Under 3.5 goals at 72.5%. The match is set to be a tight contest with Slavia Mozyr likely to edge out a win.
Results analysis
The match saw Slavia Mozyr extend their recent form, turning a defeat into a win to finish the series with a win-win-loss-loss-win sequence. The Pythia model’s favourite, an away win, proved correct as Slavia triumphed 1-2. The model had given the away side a 47% probability, while the home side carried 25% and a draw 28%. The predicted 2.6 total goals materialised in the 3-goal affair, with the most likely scoreline 1-1 at 13.2%. Every suggested pick hit: Under 5.5 cards at 91.1%, Under 4.5 cards at 80.7%, Over 1.5 at 75.4%, and Under 3.5 at 72.5%. The model’s selections performed consistently, confirming its accuracy for this fixture.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Dnepr Mogilev win✗ Miss
25.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr win✓ Hit
47.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.97
1.33
0.87
1.67
1.07
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
2.25
0.67
1.67
2.00
4.00
vs Similar (24)
1.46
0.83
1.55
0.73
1.38
0.92
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
5.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Mozyr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slavia Mozyr
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.10
1.06
0.75
1.43
1.50
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
1.21
1.07
1.07
0.73
1.38
1.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Dnepr Mogilev) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.4%
Under 1.5
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.4%
Under 2.5
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.5%
Under 3.5
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.6%
No
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
0-1
9.8%
1-2 ✓
9.4%
0-2
8.6%
0-0
8.3%
2-1
6.5%
1-0
6.5%
2-2
5.1%
FC Dnepr Mogilev goals ↓
Slavia Mozyr goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.3%
9.8%
8.6%
4.5%
1.7%
1
6.5%
13%
9.4%
4.9%
1.9%
2
4.2%
6.5%
5.1%
2.7%
1.0%
3
1.5%
2.4%
1.9%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Dnepr Mogilev goals (down), columns = Slavia Mozyr goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Minsk
2.27
Neman
2.17
Torpedo Zhodino
2.07
Dinamo Brest
1.63
FC Vitebsk
1.57
FC Gomel
1.47
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.37
Bate Borisov
1.33
FC Slutsk
1.30
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.27
Slavia Mozyr
1.17
Smorgon
1.07
Naftan
1.00
FC Minsk
0.93
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.73
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.60
Niva
0.00
FC Dnepr Mogilev is 0.57 points worse than Slavia Mozyr in terms of average points per game (0.60 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Brest
2.07
Dinamo Minsk
1.67
Neman
1.50
Torpedo Zhodino
1.50
Bate Borisov
1.27
FC Gomel
1.23
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.20
Smorgon
1.10
FC Vitebsk
1.10
Naftan
1.00
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.97
Slavia Mozyr
0.93
FC Minsk
0.93
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.90
FC Slutsk
0.87
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.63
Niva
0.50
FC Dnepr Mogilev is 0.03 goals worse than Slavia Mozyr in terms of goals scored per game (0.90 vs 0.93).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dinamo Minsk
0.43
Neman
0.63
Torpedo Zhodino
0.70
FC Vitebsk
0.83
FC Gomel
0.93
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.00
Slavia Mozyr
1.10
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.20
Dinamo Brest
1.23
Bate Borisov
1.27
FC Slutsk
1.37
Naftan
1.41
FC Minsk
1.47
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.50
Smorgon
1.70
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.93
Niva
2.50
FC Dnepr Mogilev is 0.83 goals worse than Slavia Mozyr in terms of goals conceded per game (1.93 vs 1.10).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Dnepr Mogilev
For 5.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 7.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.0 · Total 2.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Slavia Mozyr
For 5.3 · Against 4.7 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.0
-
7.0
0.6
0.6
0.5
-
-
-
vs Stronger (5)
-
-
-
1.6
2.0
1.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (39)
7.0
-
7.0
0.5
0.5
0.6
-
-
-
vs Weaker (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
-
0%
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
100%
-
100%
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Slavia Mozyr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slavia Mozyr
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.1
9.7
2.7
2.6
2.9
-
-
-
vs Stronger (3)
10.5
10.0
11.0
4.3
4.0
5.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (47)
9.9
10.1
9.6
2.6
2.4
2.8
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
57%
45%
38%
32%
44%
-
-
-
% under line
48%
43%
55%
62%
68%
56%
-
-
-
This opponent (FC Dnepr Mogilev) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Naftan
13.1
Dinamo Brest
11.2
Bate Borisov
10.8
Slavia Mozyr
10.8
FC Gomel
10.2
FC Slutsk
10.2
Smorgon
10.1
Torpedo Zhodino
9.8
Dinamo Minsk
9.8
FC Minsk
9.7
FC Isloch Minsk R.
9.6
Shakhter Soligorsk
9.6
Neman
9.5
FC Vitebsk
8.9
FC Dnepr Mogilev
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Minsk
4.3
Bate Borisov
4.2
Slavia Mozyr
4.1
Dinamo Minsk
4.1
Dinamo Brest
4.0
FC Vitebsk
4.0
Shakhter Soligorsk
3.8
Torpedo Zhodino
3.8
Neman
3.7
FC Slutsk
3.7
Smorgon
3.7
FC Gomel
3.6
Naftan
3.6
FC Isloch Minsk R.
3.6
Arsenal (Belarus)
3.5
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Shakhter Soligorsk
32.0
Torpedo Zhodino
27.0
Neman
22.2
FC Minsk
19.0
Bate Borisov
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
57.0%
Under 9.5
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.4%
Under 3.5
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.30
0.40
0.33
0.60
0.27
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.75
0.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.42
0.25
0.45
0.27
0.38
0.23
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Mozyr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slavia Mozyr
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.40
0.44
0.19
0.86
0.64
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.61
0.36
0.40
0.13
0.85
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Dnepr Mogilev) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.67
0.93
0.53
1.07
0.80
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.50
0.33
1.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
1.04
0.58
1.09
0.45
1.00
0.69
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Mozyr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slavia Mozyr
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.62
0.56
0.57
0.86
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.61
0.71
0.67
0.60
0.54
0.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Dnepr Mogilev) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FDM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
NAF (21)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
FC Dnepr Mogilev and Slavia Mozyr have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
FDM (9)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
NIV (5)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
NAF (4)
€0m
FC Dnepr Mogilev and Slavia Mozyr have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
NAF (9)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FDM (6)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
A( (5)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
FC Dnepr Mogilev and Slavia Mozyr have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FDM (10)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
FC Dnepr Mogilev and Slavia Mozyr have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Belarus: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dinamo Minsk
Neman
Torpedo Zhodino
Dinamo Brest
FC Vitebsk
FC Gomel
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Bate Borisov
FC Slutsk
Arsenal (Belarus)
Naftan
Smorgon
FC Minsk
Shakhter Soligorsk
Niva