FC Eindhoven face Heracles with a high-scoring outlook, as the model projects 3.5 goals on average and the most likely total is three, with a 22% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.2% probability. The model favours an away win, with 48% confidence, while the home win probability sits at 28% and a draw at 24%. FC Eindhoven’s home form shows they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.67 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Heracles, playing away, average 1.75 goals scored but concede 2.25 against comparable teams. Suggested picks include Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.4%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.7%), Under 7.5 (93.6%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (93.3%), Away over 0.5 goals (91.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (90.1%), Under 5.5 cards (89.9%) and Home under 1.5 HT goals (89.6%). Each pick is listed with its probability and edge where provided.
Results analysis
The win extends Heracles’ four-game winning run, while FC Eindhoven’s recent three straight defeats left them struggling at home. The model predicted an away win with a 47% probability, and the forecast proved correct as Heracles secured a 1-3 victory. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.4%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 95.7%, Under 7.5 at 93.6%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 93.3%, Away over 0.5 goals at 91.5%, Home under 3.5 goals at 90.1%, Under 5.5 cards at 89.9%, and Home under 1.5 HT goals at 89.6%. All these picks came through, confirming the model’s strong predictive performance.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Eindhoven win✗ Miss
29.8%
Avg Implied 21.1% · @ 4.39
Edge
+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
4.75
Unibet
4.60
Pinnacle
4.52
Betano
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Draw✗ Miss
23.7%
Avg Implied 22.0% · @ 4.22
Edge
+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.44
Dafabet
4.40
Marathonbet
4.40
1xBet
4.40
Unibet
4.35
Heracles win✓ Hit
46.6%
Avg Implied 56.9% · @ 1.63
Edge
-10.3%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.67
Dafabet
1.67
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.66
William Hil
1.65
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Eindhoven
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.77
2.00
1.57
1.31
1.94
vs Stronger (6)
2.00
1.17
3.50
1.00
1.25
1.25
vs Similar (24)
1.54
1.92
1.75
1.67
1.33
2.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Heracles) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heracles
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
2.17
1.67
1.73
1.73
2.60
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
2.86
0.25
2.00
1.67
4.00
vs Similar (23)
1.96
1.96
2.18
1.64
1.75
2.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
3% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Eindhoven) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.3%
@ 1.10+2.7%
Under 1.5
12.7%
@ 6.07-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.13
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Pinnacle
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Under
Betfair
6.50
BetVictor
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Pinnacle
6.37
Marathonbet
6.25
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.9%
@ 1.39+0.9%
Under 2.5
32.1%
@ 2.82-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.45
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Unibet
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.98
BetVictor
2.90
Bet365
2.88
Betfair
2.88
1xBet
2.83
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
46.3%
@ 2.00-0.4%
Under 3.5
53.7%
@ 1.76+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.12
Betfair
2.10
10Bet
2.05
Unibet
2.02
Pinnacle
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.85
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.79
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
68.4%
@ 1.44+4.2%
No
31.6%
@ 2.58-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.50
Unibet
1.49
Betfair
1.47
Bet365
1.44
William Hil
1.44
No
BetVictor
2.70
1xBet
2.69
Betano
2.67
Marathonbet
2.64
Betfair
2.63
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.0%@ 8.48+4.7%
1-2
8.9%@ 7.84+3.1%
2-1
7.0%@ 13.00+3.6%
2-2
6.9%@ 11.16+2.8%
1-3 ✓
5.8%@ 10.41+1.5%
0-2
5.8%@ 10.24+1.3%
0-1
5.0%@ 10.71+0.8%
2-3
4.5%@ 14.66+1.4%
FC Eindhoven goals ↓
Heracles goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.9%
5.0%
5.8%
3.8%
1.8%
1
3.8%
10%
8.9%
5.8%
2.8%
2
3.6%
7.0%
6.9%
4.5%
2.2%
3
1.9%
3.6%
3.5%
2.3%
1.1%
4
0.7%
1.4%
1.4%
0.9%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Eindhoven goals (down), columns = Heracles goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
Heracles
1.53
NAC Breda
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Vitesse
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
FC Eindhoven is 0.29 points worse than Heracles in terms of average points per game (1.24 vs 1.53).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almere City FC
2.02
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Heracles
1.74
Jong PSV U21
1.74
NAC Breda
1.71
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
FC Eindhoven is 0.40 goals worse than Heracles in terms of goals scored per game (1.34 vs 1.74).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Roda
1.40
Heracles
1.44
Vitesse
1.45
NAC Breda
1.47
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Jong Utrecht
1.63
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC OSS
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
MVV
1.92
Jong Ajax
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
FC Eindhoven is 0.37 goals worse than Heracles in terms of goals conceded per game (1.82 vs 1.44).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Eindhoven
For 4.8 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 9.6 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Heracles
For 6.1 · Against 5.0 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 0.9 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.3 · Against 10.9 · Total 24.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Eindhoven
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
9.0
11.8
3.0
3.1
3.0
22.6
23.0
22.2
vs Stronger (9)
8.8
9.8
8.0
2.7
3.5
2.0
24.1
24.0
24.2
vs Similar (41)
10.8
8.9
12.8
3.1
3.0
3.2
22.3
22.9
21.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
57%
46%
68%
34%
38%
31%
57%
62%
52%
% under line
43%
54%
32%
66%
62%
69%
43%
38%
48%
This opponent (Heracles) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heracles
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
10.2
11.2
3.4
3.6
3.3
24.1
23.5
24.5
vs Stronger (16)
9.9
9.9
10.0
3.8
4.3
3.1
23.3
24.1
22.3
vs Similar (34)
11.1
10.4
11.6
3.2
3.1
3.4
24.4
23.1
25.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
43%
59%
42%
48%
37%
70%
65%
74%
% under line
48%
57%
41%
58%
52%
63%
30%
35%
26%
This opponent (FC Eindhoven) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Den Bosch
12.2
FC OSS
11.9
De Graafschap
11.9
Dordrecht
11.3
VVV Venlo
11.2
Almere City FC
11.0
Heracles
10.7
Helmond Sport
10.7
Jong PSV U21
10.6
Jong Ajax
10.6
Jong AZ
10.5
FC Eindhoven
10.4
FC Volendam
10.3
Emmen
10.3
MVV
10.2
Vitesse
10.0
Waalwijk
10.0
Roda
9.9
NAC Breda
9.8
Jong Utrecht
9.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Vitesse
4.5
Dordrecht
4.3
FC OSS
4.1
Jong Ajax
3.9
NAC Breda
3.9
Emmen
3.8
Den Bosch
3.7
VVV Venlo
3.5
Heracles
3.5
Jong AZ
3.4
FC Volendam
3.4
Roda
3.3
Helmond Sport
3.3
Waalwijk
3.3
De Graafschap
3.3
MVV
3.2
Jong PSV U21
3.2
FC Eindhoven
3.1
Almere City FC
3.0
Jong Utrecht
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC OSS
29.0
Vitesse
26.7
Emmen
25.9
Dordrecht
25.8
Jong Utrecht
25.5
Helmond Sport
25.4
Jong Ajax
25.0
Roda
24.8
Heracles
24.1
VVV Venlo
23.8
Jong PSV U21
23.5
Jong AZ
23.5
Den Bosch
23.3
NAC Breda
22.9
De Graafschap
22.7
FC Eindhoven
22.6
MVV
22.5
Waalwijk
22.4
FC Volendam
22.3
Almere City FC
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
54.9%
@ 1.63-1.7%
Under 9.5
45.1%
@ 2.12+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.65
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
Under
Betano
2.20
Pinnacle
2.15
1xBet
2.11
Marathonbet
2.11
Unibet
2.05
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.9%
Under 3.5
61.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
74.9%
Under 21.5
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Eindhoven or Draw✗ Miss
46.6%
Avg Implied 42.8% · @ 2.18
Edge
+3.7%
30%
24%
47%
covers FC Eindhoven + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Unibet
2.25
Bet365
2.20
1xBet
2.19
FC Eindhoven or Heracles✓ Hit
79.7%
Avg Implied 78.3% · @ 1.19
Edge
+1.4%
30%
24%
47%
covers FC Eindhoven + Heracles
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Draw or Heracles✓ Hit
73.7%
Avg Implied 78.9% · @ 1.18
Edge
-5.1%
30%
24%
47%
covers Draw + Heracles
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.20
10Bet
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
Bet365
1.18
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Eindhoven over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
82.4%
@ 1.30+11.2%
Under
17.6%
@ 3.22-11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.34
Unibet
1.32
1xBet
1.30
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Under
Bet365
3.40
Betano
3.35
Pinnacle
3.35
Marathonbet
3.34
BetVictor
3.30
FC Eindhoven over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
51.8%
@ 2.50+14.7%
Under
48.2%
@ 1.48-14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.63
Unibet
2.63
Superbet
2.60
Pinnacle
2.58
Bet365
2.50
Under
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
Bet365
1.50
FC Eindhoven over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
25.2%
@ 5.67+8.9%
Under
74.8%
@ 1.11-8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
6.10
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.90
10Bet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
1xBet
1.11
FC Eindhoven over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.9%
@ 14.42+3.2%
Under
90.1%
@ 1.02-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Heracles over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
91.5%
@ 1.07+4.8%
Under
8.5%
@ 7.01-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Under
Bet365
8.00
1xBet
7.70
BetVictor
7.00
Betfair
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Heracles over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
70.6%
@ 1.44+6.4%
Under
29.4%
@ 2.59-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.74
Marathonbet
2.66
Betfair
2.63
Betano
2.62
Bet365
2.62
Heracles over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
44.8%
@ 2.41+6.2%
Under
55.2%
@ 1.51-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.52
Betfair
2.50
10Bet
2.45
Pinnacle
2.43
BetVictor
2.40
Under
Pinnacle
1.56
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
1xBet
1.52
Heracles over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
23.6%
@ 4.58+3.3%
Under
76.4%
@ 1.16-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.85
BetVictor
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Bet365
4.50
Under
1xBet
1.19
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.15
BetVictor
1.14
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Eindhoven, so a minus line means FC Eindhoven give that many goals of a start and Heracles receive them. At -1, FC Eindhoven must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Eindhoven win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Eindhoven)Actual: Heracles
FC Eindhoven -2
5.2%
@ 21.67+1.0%
Draw -2
7.8%
@ 13.00+0.6%
Heracles +2
87.0%
@ 1.05-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
23.00
Betfair
23.00
Superbet
19.00
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Away
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Handicap -1 (FC Eindhoven)Actual: Heracles
FC Eindhoven -1
13.0%
@ 9.34+3.4%
Draw -1
13.2%
@ 6.48-0.7%
Heracles +1
73.7%
@ 1.18-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
9.20
Unibet
9.00
10Bet
8.50
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.65
Betfair
6.50
Unibet
6.25
10Bet
6.00
Away
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Handicap +1 (FC Eindhoven)Actual: Heracles
FC Eindhoven +1
46.6%
@ 2.20+6.1%
Draw +1
19.1%
@ 3.77-4.5%
Heracles -1
34.3%
@ 2.49-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
2.33
Betfair
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Marathonbet
2.19
10Bet
2.15
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.84
Superbet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Away
Bet365
2.60
10Bet
2.60
Superbet
2.55
Marathonbet
2.48
Betfair
2.40
Handicap +2 (FC Eindhoven)Actual: Draw
FC Eindhoven +2
65.7%
@ 1.46+4.4%
Draw +2
15.7%
@ 4.72-3.2%
Heracles -2
18.6%
@ 4.53-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Draw
Marathonbet
5.05
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Superbet
4.70
Betfair
4.50
Away
10Bet
4.75
Bet365
4.75
Superbet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Eindhoven
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.70
0.93
0.57
0.62
0.81
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
0.50
2.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.75
0.67
0.58
0.83
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Heracles) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heracles
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.90
0.73
0.73
0.93
1.07
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.71
0.00
1.50
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.00
0.65
1.00
0.45
1.00
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Eindhoven) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
81.4%
@ 1.21+4.8%
Under 0.5
18.6%
@ 3.96-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
BetVictor
1.20
Under
Marathonbet
4.15
1xBet
4.15
BetVictor
4.10
William Hil
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
42.3%
@ 2.02-3.7%
Under 1.5
57.7%
@ 1.72+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.07
Betano
2.07
Pinnacle
2.06
10Bet
2.05
1xBet
2.01
Under
Pinnacle
1.78
Marathonbet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
19.9%
@ 4.29-1.7%
Under 2.5
80.1%
@ 1.18+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.30
1xBet
4.25
Under
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
BetVictor
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Superbet
1.18
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Eindhoven over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
40.1%
@ 2.14-3.2%
Under
59.9%
@ 1.64+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.20
Unibet
2.20
Pinnacle
2.18
Betano
2.15
10Bet
2.10
Under
1xBet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.67
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
10Bet
1.65
FC Eindhoven over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.4%
@ 6.94-2.9%
Under
89.6%
@ 1.07+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.50
Superbet
7.10
10Bet
7.00
1xBet
6.70
Betano
6.40
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
FC Eindhoven over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 21.50-2.9%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
26.00
10Bet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Heracles over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
65.0%
@ 1.51+3.3%
Under
35.0%
@ 2.43-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.53
Betano
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Under
Pinnacle
2.57
1xBet
2.44
Unibet
2.43
Betano
2.40
Superbet
2.37
Heracles over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
23.2%
@ 3.44-3.8%
Under
76.8%
@ 1.27+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.55
Marathonbet
3.48
Superbet
3.45
Betano
3.40
1xBet
3.30
Under
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Heracles over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.7%
@ 8.68-4.0%
Under
93.3%
@ 1.04+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.00
10Bet
9.00
Superbet
8.80
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Eindhoven
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.07
1.07
1.00
0.69
1.12
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.25
0.75
vs Similar (24)
0.79
1.17
1.08
1.08
0.50
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Heracles) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heracles
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.27
0.93
1.00
0.80
1.53
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.14
0.25
0.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.96
1.30
1.18
1.18
0.75
1.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Eindhoven) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
83.4%
@ 1.12+0.3%
Under 0.5
16.6%
@ 5.49-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Under
Betano
5.80
1xBet
5.80
Marathonbet
5.70
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.15
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
52.5%
@ 1.61-5.0%
Under 1.5
47.5%
@ 2.18+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
William Hil
1.62
Unibet
1.61
Betano
1.57
Under
Betano
2.35
Marathonbet
2.23
1xBet
2.23
William Hil
2.15
Unibet
2.14
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
24.3%
@ 2.93-7.5%
Under 2.5
75.7%
@ 1.37+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.05
William Hil
3.00
Marathonbet
2.81
1xBet
2.81
Under
Betano
1.45
Marathonbet
1.37
1xBet
1.37
William Hil
1.35
Superbet
1.33
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Eindhoven over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
45.1%
@ 1.77-7.3%
Under
54.9%
@ 1.95+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.85
1xBet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.77
10Bet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Under
Betano
2.05
10Bet
2.00
1xBet
1.93
Marathonbet
1.92
Superbet
1.85
FC Eindhoven over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.3%
@ 4.89-1.6%
Under
82.7%
@ 1.14+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
5.20
Marathonbet
5.20
1xBet
4.90
10Bet
4.75
Betano
4.40
Under
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
FC Eindhoven over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.3%
@ 13.33-2.8%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.02+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Heracles over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
66.8%
@ 1.33-2.9%
Under
33.2%
@ 3.06+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.36
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Under
Betano
3.15
1xBet
3.10
10Bet
3.10
Superbet
2.90
Heracles over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
34.0%
@ 2.54-2.5%
Under
66.0%
@ 1.46+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.70
10Bet
2.55
Marathonbet
2.52
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.45
Under
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
Superbet
1.41
Heracles over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.7%
@ 5.92-3.9%
Under
88.3%
@ 1.09+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
6.40
1xBet
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Betano
5.30
Under
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
93.6%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-2.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
93.3%
1.04
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
91.5%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
90.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-3.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.6%
1.07
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
88.3%
1.09
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
87.3%
1.10
10Bet
1.13
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Pinnacle
1.12
Bet365
1.11
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
87.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
-
-1.6%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
86.7%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-4.5%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.4%
1.12
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.12
1xBet
1.10
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.7%
1.14
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
82.4%
1.30
Superbet
1.34
Unibet
1.32
1xBet
1.30
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
+11.2%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
81.4%
1.21
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
BetVictor
1.20
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
80.1%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
BetVictor
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Superbet
1.18
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
79.7%
1.19
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
76.8%
1.27
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
76.4%
1.16
1xBet
1.19
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.15
BetVictor
1.14
-3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
75.7%
1.37
Betano
1.45
Marathonbet
1.37
1xBet
1.37
William Hil
1.35
Superbet
1.33
+7.5%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
75.3%
1.10
Betano
1.15
Pinnacle
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.10
-9.1%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
74.8%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
1xBet
1.11
-8.9%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
73.7%
1.18
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.20
10Bet
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
Bet365
1.18
-5.1%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
73.7%
1.18
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.16
-2.7%
✓ Hit
Away over 1.5 goals
70.6%
1.44
Superbet
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
+6.4%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Eindhoven
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Owen Renfrum25%
Siegert Baartmans25%
Mika de Jonge25%
Clint Essers0%
Xander Blomme0%
Jort Borgmans0%
Guus Beaumont0%
Junior Poortvliet0%
Niek Munsters0%
Luc Netten0%
Rens Boon0%
Amir Bryson0%
Emre Eksi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Rens Boon33%
Clint Essers25%
Xander Blomme0%
Jort Borgmans0%
Guus Beaumont0%
Junior Poortvliet0%
Niek Munsters0%
Luc Netten0%
Amir Bryson0%
Owen Renfrum0%
Siegert Baartmans0%
Mika de Jonge0%
Emre Eksi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Guus Beaumont50%
Niek Munsters33%
Mika de Jonge25%
Clint Essers0%
Xander Blomme0%
Jort Borgmans0%
Junior Poortvliet0%
Luc Netten0%
Rens Boon0%
Amir Bryson0%
Owen Renfrum0%
Siegert Baartmans0%
Emre Eksi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mika de Jonge25%
Clint Essers0%
Xander Blomme0%
Jort Borgmans0%
Guus Beaumont0%
Junior Poortvliet0%
Niek Munsters0%
Luc Netten0%
Rens Boon0%
Amir Bryson0%
Owen Renfrum0%
Siegert Baartmans0%
Emre Eksi0%
Heracles
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tristan van Gilst100%
Jean-Paul N'Djoli75%
Mario Borac33%
Damon Mirani25%
David Vicente25%
Djevencio van der Kust25%
Sem Scheperman25%
Chafik Abbas0%
Mike te Wierik0%
Thomas Bruns0%
David Tomić0%
Fabian De Keijzer0%
Maurice Wrusch0%
Manny Rodríguez0%
Max Hauswirth0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jean-Paul N'Djoli50%
Chafik Abbas25%
Mike te Wierik25%
Damon Mirani0%
Thomas Bruns0%
David Vicente0%
David Tomić0%
Fabian De Keijzer0%
Djevencio van der Kust0%
Sem Scheperman0%
Tristan van Gilst0%
Maurice Wrusch0%
Manny Rodríguez0%
Max Hauswirth0%
Mario Borac0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Chafik Abbas50%
Djevencio van der Kust50%
Thomas Bruns25%
David Vicente25%
Tristan van Gilst25%
Jean-Paul N'Djoli25%
Max Hauswirth25%
Damon Mirani0%
Mike te Wierik0%
David Tomić0%
Fabian De Keijzer0%
Sem Scheperman0%
Maurice Wrusch0%
Manny Rodríguez0%
Mario Borac0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tristan van Gilst100%
Jean-Paul N'Djoli75%
Mario Borac33%
Chafik Abbas25%
Max Hauswirth25%
Damon Mirani0%
Mike te Wierik0%
Thomas Bruns0%
David Vicente0%
David Tomić0%
Fabian De Keijzer0%
Djevencio van der Kust0%
Sem Scheperman0%
Maurice Wrusch0%
Manny Rodríguez0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (24)
€19m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
JPU (14)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
JA (19)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
JU (8)
€2m
FC Eindhoven's squad is €5m less valuable than Heracles's (€3m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACF (10)
€5m
JA (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
JA (7)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
JPU (4)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
FC Eindhoven's attack is €2m less valuable than Heracles's (€2m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (6)
€3m
JPU (3)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
JA (4)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
FC Eindhoven's midfield is €1m less valuable than Heracles's (€0m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (11)
€12m
NB (10)
€4m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
JPU (7)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
JA (8)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
FC Eindhoven's defence is €2m less valuable than Heracles's (€1m vs €3m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →
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MVV
Almere City FC
VVV Venlo
Emmen
Jong PSV U21
Vitesse
Roda
NAC Breda
FC Volendam
Jong AZ
Waalwijk
Den Bosch
Jong Ajax
Dordrecht
FC OSS
Helmond Sport
De Graafschap
Jong Utrecht