FC Eindhoven’s recent form, after three straight defeats, suggests a cautious approach, yet the model projects a home win at 41%. The expected total of 3.2 goals points to a high-scoring affair, with the most probable total being three goals at 22%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.3% probability. Eindhoven averages 1.83 goals scored and conceded at home against similar opposition, while Jong Ajax, on the road, averages 1.13 scored and 2.13 conceded. The model’s pick remains a home victory, with probabilities of 41% for a win, 25% for a draw, and 34% for an away win. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 goals at 98.0%, Under 6.5 at 94.8%, Away under 3.5 goals at 93.2%, Home under 3.5 goals at 89.1%, Under 5.5 at 88.0%, Under 5.5 cards at 86.5%, Home +2 handicap at 84.6%, and Over 1.5 at 84.2%. Each pick is presented with its exact probability, reflecting the model’s confidence in these outcomes.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Eindhoven win
38.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jong Ajax win
36.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Eindhoven
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.83
2.07
1.71
1.31
1.94
vs Stronger (6)
2.00
1.17
3.50
1.00
1.25
1.25
vs Similar (24)
1.58
2.00
1.83
1.83
1.33
2.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong Ajax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong Ajax
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
2.03
1.71
1.93
1.12
2.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.23
2.08
1.36
2.00
1.13
2.13
vs Weaker (4)
2.50
1.75
3.00
1.67
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Eindhoven) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.0%
Under 1.5
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
62.2%
Under 2.5
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
39.9%
Under 3.5
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
64.8%
No
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
8.2%
2-2
6.7%
1-0
5.5%
0-1
5.4%
2-0
5.3%
0-0
5.1%
FC Eindhoven goals ↓
Jong Ajax goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
5.4%
5.1%
2.7%
1.1%
1
5.5%
11%
8.2%
4.4%
1.7%
2
5.3%
8.4%
6.7%
3.5%
1.4%
3
2.9%
4.6%
3.6%
1.9%
0.8%
4
1.2%
1.8%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Eindhoven goals (down), columns = Jong Ajax goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
Heracles
1.53
NAC Breda
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Vitesse
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
FC Eindhoven is 0.32 points better than Jong Ajax in terms of average points per game (1.24 vs 0.92).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almere City FC
2.02
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Heracles
1.74
Jong PSV U21
1.74
NAC Breda
1.71
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
FC Eindhoven is 0.03 goals better than Jong Ajax in terms of goals scored per game (1.34 vs 1.32).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Roda
1.40
Heracles
1.44
Vitesse
1.45
NAC Breda
1.47
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Jong Utrecht
1.63
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC OSS
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
MVV
1.92
Jong Ajax
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
FC Eindhoven is 0.11 goals better than Jong Ajax in terms of goals conceded per game (1.82 vs 1.92).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
FC Eindhoven is 7.9 percentage points worse than Jong Ajax in terms of average possession (44% vs 52%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Eindhoven or Draw
68.3%
Avg Implied -
38%
25%
36%
covers FC Eindhoven + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Eindhoven or Jong Ajax
75.3%
Avg Implied -
38%
25%
36%
covers FC Eindhoven + Jong Ajax
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Jong Ajax
56.4%
Avg Implied -
38%
25%
36%
covers Draw + Jong Ajax
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Eindhoven over/under 0.5
Over
83.5%
Under
16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Eindhoven over/under 1.5
Over
53.8%
Under
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Eindhoven over/under 2.5
Over
27.0%
Under
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Eindhoven over/under 3.5
Over
10.9%
Under
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong Ajax over/under 0.5
Over
78.1%
Under
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong Ajax over/under 1.5
Over
44.8%
Under
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong Ajax over/under 2.5
Over
19.6%
Under
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong Ajax over/under 3.5
Over
6.8%
Under
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Eindhoven, so a minus line means FC Eindhoven give that many goals of a start and Jong Ajax receive them. At -1, FC Eindhoven must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Eindhoven win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Eindhoven)
FC Eindhoven -2
10.6%
Draw -2
13.4%
Jong Ajax +2
75.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FC Eindhoven)
FC Eindhoven -1
24.1%
Draw -1
19.6%
Jong Ajax +1
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FC Eindhoven)
FC Eindhoven +1
68.3%
Draw +1
16.3%
Jong Ajax -1
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FC Eindhoven)
FC Eindhoven +2
84.6%
Draw +2
9.5%
Jong Ajax -2
5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Eindhoven
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
0.93
0.64
0.62
0.81
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
0.50
2.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.79
0.67
0.67
0.83
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong Ajax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong Ajax
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.87
0.86
0.86
0.38
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.92
0.73
1.00
0.40
0.87
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.50
1.33
0.33
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Eindhoven) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Eindhoven over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Eindhoven over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Eindhoven over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong Ajax over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong Ajax over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong Ajax over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Eindhoven
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.10
1.14
1.07
0.69
1.12
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.25
0.75
vs Similar (24)
0.83
1.21
1.17
1.17
0.50
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong Ajax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong Ajax
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.17
0.86
1.07
0.75
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.69
1.15
0.64
1.00
0.73
1.27
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
1.25
1.67
1.33
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Eindhoven) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Eindhoven over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Eindhoven over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Eindhoven over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong Ajax over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong Ajax over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong Ajax over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Eindhoven
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Owen Renfrum25%
Siegert Baartmans25%
Mika de Jonge25%
Clint Essers0%
Xander Blomme0%
Jort Borgmans0%
Guus Beaumont0%
Junior Poortvliet0%
Niek Munsters0%
Luc Netten0%
Rens Boon0%
Amir Bryson0%
Emre Eksi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Rens Boon33%
Clint Essers25%
Xander Blomme0%
Jort Borgmans0%
Guus Beaumont0%
Junior Poortvliet0%
Niek Munsters0%
Luc Netten0%
Amir Bryson0%
Owen Renfrum0%
Siegert Baartmans0%
Mika de Jonge0%
Emre Eksi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Guus Beaumont50%
Niek Munsters33%
Mika de Jonge25%
Clint Essers0%
Xander Blomme0%
Jort Borgmans0%
Junior Poortvliet0%
Luc Netten0%
Rens Boon0%
Amir Bryson0%
Owen Renfrum0%
Siegert Baartmans0%
Emre Eksi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mika de Jonge25%
Clint Essers0%
Xander Blomme0%
Jort Borgmans0%
Guus Beaumont0%
Junior Poortvliet0%
Niek Munsters0%
Luc Netten0%
Rens Boon0%
Amir Bryson0%
Owen Renfrum0%
Siegert Baartmans0%
Emre Eksi0%
Jong Ajax
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Emre ĂśnĂĽvar80%
Diego Pugno60%
Pharrel Nash40%
Joeri Heerkens0%
Avery Appiah0%
Jano Monserrate0%
Mylo van der Lans0%
Jinairo Johnson0%
Marvyn Muzungu0%
Tijn Peters0%
Sinclair de Falco0%
Mark Verkuijl0%
Leroy Frankel0%
Jeshurun Simeon0%
Levi Acheampong0%
Mohamed Abdalla0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Diego Pugno40%
Jano Monserrate40%
Marvyn Muzungu40%
Jinairo Johnson33%
Avery Appiah25%
Pharrel Nash20%
Jeshurun Simeon20%
Levi Acheampong20%
Joeri Heerkens0%
Mylo van der Lans0%
Emre ĂśnĂĽvar0%
Tijn Peters0%
Sinclair de Falco0%
Mark Verkuijl0%
Leroy Frankel0%
Mohamed Abdalla0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Levi Acheampong40%
Mohamed Abdalla25%
Diego Pugno20%
Jano Monserrate20%
Pharrel Nash20%
Joeri Heerkens0%
Avery Appiah0%
Mylo van der Lans0%
Emre ĂśnĂĽvar0%
Jinairo Johnson0%
Marvyn Muzungu0%
Tijn Peters0%
Sinclair de Falco0%
Mark Verkuijl0%
Leroy Frankel0%
Jeshurun Simeon0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Emre ĂśnĂĽvar60%
Pharrel Nash40%
Jano Monserrate20%
Jeshurun Simeon20%
Levi Acheampong20%
Joeri Heerkens0%
Avery Appiah0%
Diego Pugno0%
Mylo van der Lans0%
Jinairo Johnson0%
Marvyn Muzungu0%
Tijn Peters0%
Sinclair de Falco0%
Mark Verkuijl0%
Leroy Frankel0%
Mohamed Abdalla0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (24)
€19m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
JPU (14)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
JA (19)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
JU (8)
€2m
FC Eindhoven's squad is €16m less valuable than Jong Ajax's (€3m vs €19m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACF (10)
€5m
JA (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
JA (7)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
JPU (4)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
FC Eindhoven's attack is €3m less valuable than Jong Ajax's (€2m vs €4m).
đź§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (6)
€3m
JPU (3)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
JA (4)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
FC Eindhoven's midfield is €3m less valuable than Jong Ajax's (€0m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (11)
€12m
NB (10)
€4m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
JPU (7)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
JA (8)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
FC Eindhoven's defence is €10m less valuable than Jong Ajax's (€1m vs €12m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →