FC Eindhoven’s recent form shows a team that has struggled, dropping three straight defeats before a win, yet they still average 3.5 goals per game at home against stronger opponents. Jong PSV U21, however, has been more balanced away, scoring 1.64 and conceding 2.55 against weaker sides, and they entered this match after a draw. The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an expected 3.2 goals and the most likely total of three goals at a 22% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.2% chance. The favoured outcome is an away win, with probabilities of 27% for a home win, 25% for a draw, and 48% for an away win. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 goals at 95.9%, Under 5.5 cards at 91.9%, Home under 3.5 goals at 91.5%, Under 6.5 at 90.7%, Away over 0.5 goals at 88.7%, Away +2 handicap at 86.1%, Over 1.5 at 84.0%, and Away under 3.5 goals at 82.2%. Each pick is presented with its exact probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Eindhoven win
28.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jong PSV U21 win
46.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Eindhoven
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.83
2.07
1.71
1.31
1.94
vs Stronger (6)
2.00
1.17
3.50
1.00
1.25
1.25
vs Similar (24)
1.58
2.00
1.83
1.83
1.33
2.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong PSV U21) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong PSV U21
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.70
1.75
1.31
1.50
2.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.55
1.45
1.71
1.57
1.25
1.25
vs Weaker (19)
1.68
1.84
1.78
1.11
1.60
2.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Eindhoven) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.4%
Under 1.5
15.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
62.8%
Under 2.5
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
40.6%
Under 3.5
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
64.4%
No
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
1-2
9.3%
2-1
7.1%
0-2
6.6%
2-2
6.5%
0-1
6.2%
1-3
5.7%
0-0
4.9%
FC Eindhoven goals ↓
Jong PSV U21 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
6.2%
6.6%
4.0%
1.8%
1
4.5%
11%
9.3%
5.7%
2.6%
2
3.9%
7.1%
6.5%
4.0%
1.8%
3
1.8%
3.3%
3.0%
1.9%
0.9%
4
0.6%
1.2%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Eindhoven goals (down), columns = Jong PSV U21 goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
Heracles
1.53
NAC Breda
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Vitesse
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
FC Eindhoven is 0.24 points worse than Jong PSV U21 in terms of average points per game (1.24 vs 1.47).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almere City FC
2.02
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Heracles
1.74
Jong PSV U21
1.74
NAC Breda
1.71
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
FC Eindhoven is 0.39 goals worse than Jong PSV U21 in terms of goals scored per game (1.34 vs 1.74).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Roda
1.40
Heracles
1.44
Vitesse
1.45
NAC Breda
1.47
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Jong Utrecht
1.63
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC OSS
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
MVV
1.92
Jong Ajax
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
FC Eindhoven is 0.13 goals worse than Jong PSV U21 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.82 vs 1.68).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
FC Eindhoven is 7.9 percentage points worse than Jong PSV U21 in terms of average possession (44% vs 52%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Eindhoven or Draw
52.7%
Avg Implied -
29%
25%
47%
covers FC Eindhoven + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Eindhoven or Jong PSV U21
77.5%
Avg Implied -
29%
25%
47%
covers FC Eindhoven + Jong PSV U21
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Jong PSV U21
69.8%
Avg Implied -
29%
25%
47%
covers Draw + Jong PSV U21
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Eindhoven over/under 0.5
Over
81.3%
Under
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Eindhoven over/under 1.5
Over
49.9%
Under
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Eindhoven over/under 2.5
Over
23.6%
Under
76.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Eindhoven over/under 3.5
Over
8.9%
Under
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong PSV U21 over/under 0.5
Over
87.9%
Under
12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong PSV U21 over/under 1.5
Over
62.3%
Under
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong PSV U21 over/under 2.5
Over
35.3%
Under
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong PSV U21 over/under 3.5
Over
16.3%
Under
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Eindhoven, so a minus line means FC Eindhoven give that many goals of a start and Jong PSV U21 receive them. At -1, FC Eindhoven must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Eindhoven win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Eindhoven)
FC Eindhoven -2
6.1%
Draw -2
9.1%
Jong PSV U21 +2
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FC Eindhoven)
FC Eindhoven -1
15.1%
Draw -1
15.1%
Jong PSV U21 +1
69.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FC Eindhoven)
FC Eindhoven +1
52.7%
Draw +1
19.2%
Jong PSV U21 -1
28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FC Eindhoven)
FC Eindhoven +2
71.9%
Draw +2
14.4%
Jong PSV U21 -2
13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Eindhoven
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
0.93
0.64
0.62
0.81
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
0.50
2.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.79
0.67
0.67
0.83
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong PSV U21) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong PSV U21
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.73
0.88
0.31
1.07
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.55
0.86
0.43
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (19)
1.05
0.84
0.89
0.22
1.20
1.40
Clean sheet %
47% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Eindhoven) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Eindhoven over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Eindhoven over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Eindhoven over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong PSV U21 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong PSV U21 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong PSV U21 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Eindhoven
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.10
1.14
1.07
0.69
1.12
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.25
0.75
vs Similar (24)
0.83
1.21
1.17
1.17
0.50
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong PSV U21) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong PSV U21
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.97
0.88
1.00
0.43
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.91
0.86
1.14
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (19)
0.63
1.00
0.89
0.89
0.40
1.10
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Eindhoven) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Eindhoven over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Eindhoven over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Eindhoven over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong PSV U21 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong PSV U21 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong PSV U21 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (24)
€19m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
JPU (14)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
JA (19)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
JU (8)
€2m
FC Eindhoven's squad is €4m less valuable than Jong PSV U21's (€3m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACF (10)
€5m
JA (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
JA (7)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
JPU (4)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
FC Eindhoven and Jong PSV U21 have a similar attack value (both €2m).
đź§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (6)
€3m
JPU (3)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
JA (4)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
FC Eindhoven's midfield is €3m less valuable than Jong PSV U21's (€0m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (11)
€12m
NB (10)
€4m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
JPU (7)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
JA (8)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
FC Eindhoven's defence is €1m less valuable than Jong PSV U21's (€1m vs €3m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →